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#1489415 - 06/02/2019 18:25 SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3019
Loc: Tweed Heads
OK.. I am out on a limb . ACCESS g forecast.
Troughing with an embedded tropical low just off the coast.
We will be on the S /SW flank of the low with some weak ridging interfering at times.
Should be a moist onshore flow. There is a NE infeed into the low which also connects to the coast for some of this time frame.
Most of our area remains in the surface trough during this period.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml



Edited by Seabreeze (10/02/2019 22:24)
Edit Reason: added 'heat' to title
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#1489506 - 07/02/2019 18:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3019
Loc: Tweed Heads
Synoptically speaking, the tropical low will be connected to our trough but the low will not come down south ( at least not this week or not at all).
It migrates east along latitude 18s all week in the coral sea . No southerly transition yet from ACCESS.
Here is a snap of the first day of our event with a precipitation signal on the trough line during diurnal max 2pm -onwards . ACCESS r suggesting some weakened activity may make it to the coast.
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#1489575 - 08/02/2019 12:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Good pick up Crikey, hopefully that low off the QLD coast doesnt block moisture flow from the Coral Sea.

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#1489621 - 08/02/2019 18:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3019
Loc: Tweed Heads
Hi Petros. Thanks for dropping by ... ACCESS r is showing a reasonable precipitation signal west of the divide by 2pm. The activity is on the trough line west of the divide. A hunch there will be some embedded storms. Some decent stuff for the inland , even into country SE Qld
By 5pm ACCESS is showing some intensification and in fact the wet stuff makes it to the coast if you are south of ~ Brisbane.or south of the border perhaps.
Activity weakening into early evening
we will have westerly 500 hpa mid levels and sub tropical jetat 200hpa to encourage any wet activity over the ranges.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (08/02/2019 18:09)
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#1489758 - 09/02/2019 13:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10632
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Some surprise rain yesterday evening, with 3.8mm falling. Some thunder was heard, but the storms themselves mostly remained 10-15kms or more away from the coastline, and it was just their decayed remains that spread to the coast dropping some rain.


Photo looking towards Smoky Mountain at South West Rocks yesterday before the rain. With the exception of lawns, it's otherwise remained surprisingly green despite only about 20mm falling since Christmas.

Storms currently coming down the ranges, and heading E/ESE towards coastal parts.
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April 2019 Rainfall: 161.4mm (April Avg. 169.3mm) // April 2019 Raindays: 19 (April Avg. 12.9 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 422.0mm (Jan-Apr Avg. 666.4mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 57 (Jan-Apr Avg. 55.6 raindays)

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#1489776 - 09/02/2019 15:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3019
Loc: Tweed Heads
3.30pm. Storm line has now extended northward over the border up a far as Charleville
There also appears to be some speckles forming from that line and eastward to the coast.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR671.loop.shtml#skip

3.30pm obs
Contrast in dew points ..Moree 12.4 deg c with storms
Brisbane due point 20 deg c
tweed heads 22.9 deg c
as l am typing another short line forming or just filling in' coffs' to west of Lismore. could be interesting.
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#1489782 - 09/02/2019 16:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 671
Loc: Bardon 4065
Nice photo Seabreeze.

Yes Crikey the radar is looking good out west and in NSW. Unfortunately for SE Qld probably a bit too far west. Some nice storms around in northern NSW and probably just outside this forums boundary around Barrington Tops. View from the Murrurundi Gap web cam. (Storm at about 135 degrees has nice looking anvil)

https://weathercams.airservicesaustralia.com/?airport=murrurundi-gap

Unfortunately the Coffs Harbour Web cam is U/S as are a few others unfortunately.
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#1489794 - 09/02/2019 18:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3019
Loc: Tweed Heads
Synoptic pattern changing and on the move finally. The AAO has been highly positive during the stalled east coast ridging this summer. Here is tomorrows synoptic showing the change from yesterday. The Tasman high has shrunk and moved away .The east quadrant of OZ has lower pressure troughing.
Of note tomorrow is the incredibly wide apart isobars giving next to no wind for Australia. ( apart from the coastal morning and arvo web and flow)
No rain signal of significance with this troughing tomorrow. Probably because the isobars are so far apart.
There was fog at the tweed this morning. Maybe again tomorrow with no wind?







Edited by crikey (09/02/2019 18:07)
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#1489799 - 09/02/2019 19:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3847
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
High cloud building way to the SW. Too far away to get anything out of.
Been a very warm sunny day. Not looking forward to 41C later in the week.
This summer sucks!
Cheers everyone for their input.

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#1489800 - 09/02/2019 19:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1006
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Bewdy that stinkin high goes into the graveyard !

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#1489805 - 09/02/2019 19:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3847
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Nothing stopping the one in the Bight or southern Indian replacing it?
AccessG was dreamin again I see.
Ahh, bit of action on 256K Stapy, havnt seen that for awhile.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (09/02/2019 19:43)

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#1489810 - 09/02/2019 20:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1006
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Yes mate as sure as night becomes day again there will be a brand spankin new high not far behind it cchafin at the bit to annoy us.Anyway it was nice to see Mr Nimbus appear out to the south west this arvie😄

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#1489815 - 09/02/2019 20:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Tuntable Crook Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/02/2013
Posts: 22
Thank you for starting this little thread. It's getting very hopeful around The Channon right now, where our paddocks are the worst they have been in over forty years. This storm front was largely unheralded on BOM etc, but was very well described here. Kudos.

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#1489817 - 09/02/2019 20:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 671
Loc: Bardon 4065
Radar looking good with a nice line of storms and showers from Oakey to Lismore. Most interesting it has looked for ages.
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#1489819 - 09/02/2019 21:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1006
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
AccessR has it pestering out to nothing around here though.When you look at the rada though you have to shake ya head.What . . The usual coastal capping storm shield again?

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#1489821 - 09/02/2019 21:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3847
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Yes, just looked at that, wont get up this far though.

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#1489822 - 09/02/2019 21:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1658
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Would you believe it, a line is comming toward us. The bom say clear..... We'll see
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#1489823 - 09/02/2019 21:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: paulcirrus]
Nic_Bri Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/08/2016
Posts: 38
Loc: Mt Gravatt East
I know! I just checked the radar and was dumbfounded, lets hope it makes the coast!

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#1489824 - 09/02/2019 21:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
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Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1244
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Never gets worse in the dark , $100 on a fade out.

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#1489825 - 09/02/2019 21:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1658
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
if it makes it to us at say 9pm, the bom will update our forecast at 9:15 to possible storm, you watch, but fade out totally possible
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#1489827 - 09/02/2019 21:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Tuntable Crook Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/02/2013
Posts: 22
Aaaand it's gone ... knew I shouldn't have posted.

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#1489829 - 09/02/2019 21:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 249
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
Lots of lightning visible already. Please make it to us.

And severe thunderstorm warning is out.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS

For people in parts of Darling Downs and Granite Belt and Southeast Coast Forecast Districts.

Issued at 8:04 pm Saturday, 9 February 2019.

Damaging wind gusts possible across southeast Queensland.

Weather Situation:An intensifying squall line is currently moving into the Southeast Coast district. Although there are no indications of severity, it may, however produce an isolated damaging wind gust.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Boonah, Beaudesert, Laidley and Springbrook.


Edited by Ahab (09/02/2019 21:25)

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#1489830 - 09/02/2019 21:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 671
Loc: Bardon 4065
Warwick has had a couple of 69kph wind gusts from the SW as that storm went through only 3mm of rain though.
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#1489831 - 09/02/2019 21:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 549
Loc: Salisbury
It's nice seeing all the lightning from this storm in the distance,as I sit here watching tv and looking out the front door at the same time.

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#1489832 - 09/02/2019 21:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3847
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Good looking lightshow, someonez gona have a smile!
AND a STW as well, amazing!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (09/02/2019 21:40)

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#1489834 - 09/02/2019 22:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1658
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
There you go BOM forecasting by radar, updated 9pm but they reckon in the west, what ever that means. West as in the first couple of k's of the western suburbs ?
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#1489835 - 09/02/2019 22:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3847
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Amazing forecasting isnt it?
Saw high cloud gathering way to the SW late this arvo & thought, oh, wont get to us, too far away! Not too far from most now?
We still gona miss out though!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (09/02/2019 22:19)

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#1489837 - 09/02/2019 22:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10632
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Cheers Foehn.

Two thunderstorms moved through here this afternoon and evening. The afternoon storm brought a flang less than 200 metres away, quickly scurried back inside after that, lol. Photo after the first storm cleared away.


A couple of lightning pics taken on my mobile associated with the second storm.



Just a slight, lingering chance of a storm here over the next couple of hours until the change moves through.


A stormy afternoon/evening elsewhere on the Mid North Coast too. Very frequent lightning in some of the storms today. A hailstorm moved through Wauchope and Port Macquarie early this evening. There was also a 96km/h wind gust at Coffs Harbour this evening.
Port Macquarie - https://www.instagram.com/p/Btp_NwaHVXH/
Port Macquarie - https://www.instagram.com/p/Btpz6TCHZmZ/
Wauchope - https://www.facebook.com/groups/996409443828246/permalink/1449889945146858/
Wauchope - https://www.instagram.com/p/BtpzsnOnCik/
Nambucca Heads - https://www.instagram.com/p/BtpatDTgFZy/
Nambucca Heads - https://www.instagram.com/p/BtpcXnOj3p5/
Macksville - https://www.instagram.com/p/BtplkuaAZz8/
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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
April 2019 Rainfall: 161.4mm (April Avg. 169.3mm) // April 2019 Raindays: 19 (April Avg. 12.9 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 422.0mm (Jan-Apr Avg. 666.4mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 57 (Jan-Apr Avg. 55.6 raindays)

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#1489838 - 09/02/2019 22:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Aussiestormguy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 63
Loc: Allora
Got 5mm here and not complaining. The wind gusts were quite incredible and we had to hold the lattice gate in our undercover area for a while because it bowed and threatened to break free. Weather station is down and has been faulty for ages. Wish I could comment on the wind accurately. ASG.

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#1489839 - 09/02/2019 23:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormwalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2013
Posts: 95
Nice band of storms coming through.

Lots of lightning and the occasional rumble.

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#1489840 - 09/02/2019 23:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1006
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Wow what a surprise.Nice lightshow and lots of booming thunder with steady rain .AccessR missed that happning

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#1489847 - 10/02/2019 07:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
mammatus meestrus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 80
Loc: lennox head
I'd much rather see a strong high with a deep mean easterly flow driving stream showers onto the coast(typical Feb) then this pseudo-spring storm pattern.

I see very little moisture flow into these troughs and hence, a repeat if anything of last nights storm where about 50 heavy drops fell and it barely registered in the gauge.

Whats was noteworthy about last weeks pattern was the paltry incursion of the showers south of the border.
Normally reliable high summer rainfall locations like Cape Byron barely broke 10mm over the week, Ballina didn't make 5mm.

Thats the second strong MJO phase, and in this case monster monsoonal surge that has resulted in a total failure of the normal summer moisture incursion into the sub-tropics.

I see no break in that pattern. Worse, if anything.

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#1489850 - 10/02/2019 08:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5055
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..10 FEB 2019 TIME..0740

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........77%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 22C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... W 9kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1004.7Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........1/8 cloud, decreasing.
RAIN SINCE 0900 SATURDAY...0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.6C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.8C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.2C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....22C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1003.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 31kph at 1245
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Overnight lightning to SW, but storms dissipated.
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#1489855 - 10/02/2019 09:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1810
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Wow what a surprise.Nice lightshow and lots of booming thunder with steady rain .AccessR missed that happning



I find Access C more accurate when it comes to forecasting severe weather.

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#1489856 - 10/02/2019 09:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: mammatus meestrus]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1810
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: mammatus meestrus
I'd much rather see a strong high with a deep mean easterly flow driving stream showers onto the coast(typical Feb) then this pseudo-spring storm pattern.

I see very little moisture flow into these troughs and hence, a repeat if anything of last nights storm where about 50 heavy drops fell and it barely registered in the gauge.

Whats was noteworthy about last weeks pattern was the paltry incursion of the showers south of the border.
Normally reliable high summer rainfall locations like Cape Byron barely broke 10mm over the week, Ballina didn't make 5mm.

Thats the second strong MJO phase, and in this case monster monsoonal surge that has resulted in a total failure of the normal summer moisture incursion into the sub-tropics.

I see no break in that pattern. Worse, if anything.


Strong highs usually give settled weather though smile

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#1489858 - 10/02/2019 09:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
mammatus meestrus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 80
Loc: lennox head
Yes, and the settled weather for Feb is strong highs with deep E'ly flows distributing tropical moisture onto SEQLD and NENSW.

It elongates the convergence zone from the monsoonal flow.

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#1489859 - 10/02/2019 09:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: mammatus meestrus]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1810
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: mammatus meestrus
Yes, and the settled weather for Feb is strong highs with deep E'ly flows distributing tropical moisture onto SEQLD and NENSW.

It elongates the convergence zone from the monsoonal flow.


Yes this time of year the highs are generally well south.

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#1489861 - 10/02/2019 09:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1810
Loc: Australia
I haven't been looking at the charts. Looks like a southerly is moving thru today? Yet the forecast temps are still rather high.

What changed in the forecast with the storms? Tomorrow was meant to be a very good day from what South Brisbane storms posted a few days back . Now nothing ?

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#1489862 - 10/02/2019 09:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1349
Loc: Toowoomba
Wow, Mammatus metestrus, your understanding of the weather and climate for the mostly unrepresented Northern Rivers(and applies considerably to the others areas as well) is amazing. I read an article called Drought on Steroids. The main point was that the outstanding feature of this drought is the persistent well above to record high temps far beyond any other known drought and the extra damage it does. Just look at the coming weeks' temps.

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#1489872 - 10/02/2019 13:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 249
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
Not looking good. The showers from last week were enough to keep the grass green but did nothing to creeks and groundwater. I heard before the term "green drought". Think this would apply here.


Edited by Ahab (10/02/2019 13:20)

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#1489875 - 10/02/2019 13:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Ahab]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park


Originally Posted By: Ahab
Not looking good. The showers from last week were enough to keep the grass green but did nothing to creeks and groundwater. I heard before the term "green drought". Think this would apply here.


Green drought?? Really?? Its only green along my garden beds from watering the plants. The rest of the yard is dead as and is like walking on a wire brush
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#1489876 - 10/02/2019 13:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: gleno71]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10632
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I haven't been looking at the charts. Looks like a southerly is moving thru today? Yet the forecast temps are still rather high.

What changed in the forecast with the storms? Tomorrow was meant to be a very good day from what South Brisbane storms posted a few days back . Now nothing ?
Looking at the models, the Bureau's forecasts look pretty on the mark for what to expect today and tomorrow. Basically, higher chances in northern SEQLD (more-or-less the Wide Bay / Burnett region). Lower chances in the southern half of SEQLD, and if storms do form they'll more likely favour places nearer to the ranges.
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/wide-bay-and-burnett.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/southeast-coast.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/darling-downs-and-granite-belt.shtml
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
April 2019 Rainfall: 161.4mm (April Avg. 169.3mm) // April 2019 Raindays: 19 (April Avg. 12.9 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 422.0mm (Jan-Apr Avg. 666.4mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 57 (Jan-Apr Avg. 55.6 raindays)

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#1489878 - 10/02/2019 14:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: mammatus meestrus]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7823
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: mammatus meestrus
I'd much rather see a strong high with a deep mean easterly flow driving stream showers onto the coast(typical Feb) then this pseudo-spring storm pattern.

I see very little moisture flow into these troughs and hence, a repeat if anything of last nights storm where about 50 heavy drops fell and it barely registered in the gauge.

Whats was noteworthy about last weeks pattern was the paltry incursion of the showers south of the border.
Normally reliable high summer rainfall locations like Cape Byron barely broke 10mm over the week, Ballina didn't make 5mm.

Thats the second strong MJO phase, and in this case monster monsoonal surge that has resulted in a total failure of the normal summer moisture incursion into the sub-tropics.

I see no break in that pattern. Worse, if anything.


I thought there was a glimmer of hope a few weeks ago but yeah, nothing came of it for the southern half of the country. There also seems to be this common misconception around here that the Tasman Sea high automatically equates to dry 'boring' weather which is not always true. Oswald consisted of two double-highs over NZ which fed into an inland trough over inland QLD. Jan 1974 also consisted of very dry, anticyclonic conditions through NZ while as everyone knows, Queensland was very, very wet. There are many more examples of this but those are just a couple. As I've said in the Climate Drivers thread a while ago, there's more to it than just looking at a MSLP chart and identifying the 'H' in the Tasman Sea.

I agree with you re the current pattern. I do think it tried to return to a more typical February pattern this past week with scattered onshore showers returning in a (finally) moister, elongated ridge but now we're back where we started - weak ridge, rubbish moisture infeed and garden-variety storms at best. Great if you like to swelter in hot days and photograph storms, terrible if you want some proper rainfall.

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#1489879 - 10/02/2019 14:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Lani Offline
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Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1254
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Im officially done with his crap weather 😢 cant believe it hasnt rained this year, this is my wet season to get me through winter. Just devastating.
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Jimbour rain: 2019 - 145mm Jan - .5 Feb - 1.5, Mar - 143

2018 - 508.2
2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1489882 - 10/02/2019 15:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7823
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Also a lot of dry southerly air being dragged up behind Thursday's front. Not good.

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#1489883 - 10/02/2019 15:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1879
Loc: Kingaroy
CFS is still holding on to a wet signal for SEQ in March, just a good little storm pass through in Kingaroy.

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#1489885 - 10/02/2019 15:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 606
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Oh Keool, A new thread , cheers crikey cool
Like the pics also Seabreeze , ,

Watching the skies midday yesty and noticed on radar that line way out to our SW - mid late afternoon i noticed quite a bit of mid level cloud flinging down from the Nrth and a bit later was turning to the SWst, thought this could get interest,, then squizzed the radar again, low-&-behold showed some good promise with the building intensity !
Saw some flashing over & beyond the Tambourine Mnt to our wst on dusk, heading for the Beenleigh corridor and other parts. tho, as usual The Damn Springbrook Mount destroyed any possible 'mild' onslaught for the GC cry

Looking a bit interesting Tues arvo from what I can decyfer with stormcast, some LI's, also good sheer through the levels, and modest moisture feed during the later afternoon evening - that said, I most likely missing other more important factors, eg, is there capping, a dry slot, not enough moisture etc ??

Just my humble inexperienced 'Bob's worth' cool blush

Looking on with interest with everyone's input as usual, good stuff ...
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#1489887 - 10/02/2019 16:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
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Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1209
Loc: Warwick, QLD
On a happier note, I had 5.5mm last night in a light thundershower. Wont make much of a difference, but it did remind me that it can actually rain out here.
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#1489889 - 10/02/2019 16:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10632
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Thanks PlumbBob.
4.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am from the two storms yesterday.

The highest fall was 60mm at Stuarts Island near Nambucca Heads. The storm that moved through the Nambucca Valley during the afternoon was able to fully transition into a surface-based storm and tap into the 22-23C dewpoints. Whereas most other storms yesterday tended to be higher-based and so brought lesser rain in comparison.

An invasion of drier air on the MNC behind the change with dewpoints getting as low as 11-13C earlier today. Even if it will be just for a day, it's nice to have a break from the humidity though.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
April 2019 Rainfall: 161.4mm (April Avg. 169.3mm) // April 2019 Raindays: 19 (April Avg. 12.9 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 422.0mm (Jan-Apr Avg. 666.4mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 57 (Jan-Apr Avg. 55.6 raindays)

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#1489897 - 10/02/2019 18:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: james1977]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1006
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Originally Posted By: james1977


Originally Posted By: Ahab
Not looking good. The showers from last week were enough to keep the grass green but did nothing to creeks and groundwater. I heard before the term "green drought". Think this would apply here.


Green drought?? Really?? Its only green along my garden beds from watering the plants. The rest of the yard is dead as and is like walking on a wire brush


We got a green drought down here James.After a couple of showers lately that would barely top up a tank , everything has greened up real nice. Must be the nitrogen enriched rainwater that does the trick.
By the way Mega, you made mention about our friend the Tasman High.No doubt they provide the mois indeed for those troughs.We should differentiate here and curse the Squidge, that "nose" like projection off the highs that hangs round for days, weeks sometimes.Thats the puppy that gives us so much grief and be worthy of cursing.

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#1489898 - 10/02/2019 18:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Originally Posted By: james1977


Originally Posted By: Ahab
Not looking good. The showers from last week were enough to keep the grass green but did nothing to creeks and groundwater. I heard before the term "green drought". Think this would apply here.


Green drought?? Really?? Its only green along my garden beds from watering the plants. The rest of the yard is dead as and is like walking on a wire brush


We got a green drought down here James.After a couple of showers lately that would barely top up a tank , everything has greened up real nice. Must be the nitrogen enriched rainwater that does the trick.
By the way Mega, you made mention about our friend the Tasman High.No doubt they provide the mois indeed for those troughs.We should differentiate here and curse the Squidge, that "nose" like projection off the highs that hangs round for days, weeks sometimes.Thats the puppy that gives us so much grief and be worthy of cursing.


....and we hate it down in Gippsland Vic too.

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#1489902 - 10/02/2019 18:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Mega]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1810
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: mammatus meestrus
I'd much rather see a strong high with a deep mean easterly flow driving stream showers onto the coast(typical Feb) then this pseudo-spring storm pattern.

I see very little moisture flow into these troughs and hence, a repeat if anything of last nights storm where about 50 heavy drops fell and it barely registered in the gauge.

Whats was noteworthy about last weeks pattern was the paltry incursion of the showers south of the border.
Normally reliable high summer rainfall locations like Cape Byron barely broke 10mm over the week, Ballina didn't make 5mm.

Thats the second strong MJO phase, and in this case monster monsoonal surge that has resulted in a total failure of the normal summer moisture incursion into the sub-tropics.

I see no break in that pattern. Worse, if anything.


I thought there was a glimmer of hope a few weeks ago but yeah, nothing came of it for the southern half of the country. There also seems to be this common misconception around here that the Tasman Sea high automatically equates to dry 'boring' weather which is not always true. Oswald consisted of two double-highs over NZ which fed into an inland trough over inland QLD. Jan 1974 also consisted of very dry, anticyclonic conditions through NZ while as everyone knows, Queensland was very, very wet. There are many more examples of this but those are just a couple. As I've said in the Climate Drivers thread a while ago, there's more to it than just looking at a MSLP chart and identifying the 'H' in the Tasman Sea.



Yes Ken has mentioned that a few times about not just looking at the surface etc.. My point is if you look up the meaning of high pressure, it will say a high will give you fine and settled weather. Low pressure will provide rain and unsettled weather. Then again you can have low pressure in Darwin in the dry season, but its fine weather. The East coast of Australia must be very unique compared to other parts of the world where you can easily rely on having a Barometer on your wall.

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#1489903 - 10/02/2019 18:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
planet x Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/02/2015
Posts: 58
Loc: Brisbane
A welcome strong breeze here at the moment.
Perhaps a hint of a promise of things to come?

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#1489911 - 10/02/2019 19:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3019
Loc: Tweed Heads
Hmm speaking of breeze. The isobars are very far apart on the synoptic and l was expecting little to no wind as l was taught that wide isobars mean low wind. Well was surprised as we had quite a strong breeze here on the coast at times and even some strong winds west of the divide. There must be something else ?

Northern Rivers gusting up to 40km/hr SSE
same for the hunter region
Even the tablelands windy
Gold coast gust up to 54km/hr

windy in SEQ as well generally

One possible explanation. If you look at the surface layer winds . They are being sucked into that developing low in the coral sea. So a bit like a vacuum cleaner driven winds
surface ( SE/S)
But interesting that the model does not resolve that dynamic inflow into the TS in the coral sea

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

500hpa mids

we are generally on the NW flank of the mid level low west of NZ
SW / S

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

200hpa
we are under the sub tropical jet ( westerly)
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#1489912 - 10/02/2019 19:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6723
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
When was the last time SE Qld had a wet March/April/May?
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#1489915 - 10/02/2019 19:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3019
Loc: Tweed Heads
Tomorrows surface synoptic . Quite interesting. The high in the Bight has been replaced by a strong zonal westerly belt. The sub polar latitude looks like it might be cranking with some bends. This one covers Tasmania as it passes. This is often seen in Autumn and winter.Likely drop in the AAO occurring.

Notice the very wide apart surface gradient over the mainland once again. I won't say light winds for our area because today it was windy. So expecting the same tomorrow. Surface winds advecting toward the Coral sea low ot towards the west NZ low. I suspect.?

ACC r not showing any rain for tomorrow
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

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#1489920 - 10/02/2019 21:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10632
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: crikey
Hmm speaking of breeze. The isobars are very far apart on the synoptic and l was expecting little to no wind as l was taught that wide isobars mean low wind. Well was surprised as we had quite a strong breeze here on the coast at times and even some strong winds west of the divide. There must be something else ?

Northern Rivers gusting up to 40km/hr SSE
same for the hunter region
Even the tablelands windy
Gold coast gust up to 54km/hr

windy in SEQ as well generally

One possible explanation. If you look at the surface layer winds . They are being sucked into that developing low in the coral sea. So a bit like a vacuum cleaner driven winds
surface ( SE/S)
But interesting that the model does not resolve that dynamic inflow into the TS in the coral sea

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

500hpa mids

we are generally on the NW flank of the mid level low west of NZ
SW / S

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

200hpa
we are under the sub tropical jet ( westerly)



The SE'lies were rushing up behind the trough today. Keep in-mind the isobars on the BOM's ACCESS model map and BOM's synoptic chart are in intervals of 4hPa. So what can look lazy, can sometimes be a bit busier than it looks, especially when there are troughlines about.

Here's what the 00z GFS forecast run had for this afternoon at 4pm EST, showing the MSLP about our region and across Australia (isobars shown in 1hPa intervals), plus the wind streamlines for our region too (in knots) showing the stronger SE'lies rushing up behind the trough out at sea.





_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
April 2019 Rainfall: 161.4mm (April Avg. 169.3mm) // April 2019 Raindays: 19 (April Avg. 12.9 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 422.0mm (Jan-Apr Avg. 666.4mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 57 (Jan-Apr Avg. 55.6 raindays)

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#1489922 - 10/02/2019 22:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 937
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Not much to say about the current weather other than the humidity this morning was oppressive.
Coral sea looks interesting in the forecasts for the broader western pacific, but for SE Qld and NE NSW appears not much in it compared to the moisture that we would normally expect in midst of January to March weather.

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#1489932 - 11/02/2019 08:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5055
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..11 FEB 2019 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......23.3C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........87%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... E 4kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1009.4Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........20KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........7/8 cloud, nearby showers.
RAIN SINCE 0900 SUNDAY...1.8mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......32.1C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....22.4C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...22.4C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....21C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1006.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 47kph at 1623
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Overnight and early morning showers developed.
_________________________
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#1489963 - 11/02/2019 17:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3019
Loc: Tweed Heads
Thankyou so much 'seabreeze' for looking into that. Very informative and interesting.
The zoomed in 1km surface wind sure gives much greater detail. I will use that. Does UKMET or ACCESS have a similar product. (1km intervals for MSLP).


Edited by crikey (11/02/2019 17:20)
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#1489968 - 11/02/2019 17:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3019
Loc: Tweed Heads
Here is a sat pic' of 'false color' showing just how hot the mainland is today with no rain, limited wind and limited cloud
5.30 UTC probably peak heat

Showing the cooler coastal effect
and of course the active monsoon in the coral sea with 2 INVESTs' there currently



source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/satellite/?tz=AEST&unit=p23&domain=14&view=34&satSubmit=Refresh+View
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#1489976 - 11/02/2019 18:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1810
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I haven't been looking at the charts. Looks like a southerly is moving thru today? Yet the forecast temps are still rather high.

What changed in the forecast with the storms? Tomorrow was meant to be a very good day from what South Brisbane storms posted a few days back . Now nothing ?
Looking at the models, the Bureau's forecasts look pretty on the mark for what to expect today and tomorrow. Basically, higher chances in northern SEQLD (more-or-less the Wide Bay / Burnett region). Lower chances in the southern half of SEQLD, and if storms do form they'll more likely favour places nearer to the ranges.
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/wide-bay-and-burnett.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/southeast-coast.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/darling-downs-and-granite-belt.shtml


quote from the SBS page a few days back "At this stage Monday is looking like the pick of the days, but there could also be some storms around inland and southern parts on Saturday and Sunday"

From North Coast Storm chasers "especially on Monday where we might see widespread storms develop and possibly even become severe "

They both posted storm maps for Monday which was widespread.

I'm not being critical that the forecast was wrong, although we did get activity on Saturday evening. It's more so why the storms didn't develop today so we can have a better understanding.

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#1489983 - 11/02/2019 19:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2559
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
I spy with my little eye something in the Tasman sea beginning with H.

Groundhog day.

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#1489991 - 11/02/2019 21:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 374
Loc: Tallai, QLD
That is to farken funny. And correct
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#1489994 - 11/02/2019 21:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7823
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Hi RC,

I see ex TC Osland over Rockhampton on this chart and I also see something beginning with H in the Tasman Sea at the same time:



Interesting, I also see TC Marcia off the coast of Rockhampton and a big H in the Tasman Sea again:


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#1489995 - 11/02/2019 21:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 937
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I agree with some of the earlier comments about green drought, and particularly so for areas closer to the coast.
Recent showers have greened up some veg compared to the dismally dry status a few weeks ago. at depth our landscape is short of the normal moisture levels. A few more weeks of dry weather will see this temporary green colour disappear.
A period of March and April typically expected rain would be very welcome to restore the balance of dry and wet weather.

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#1490000 - 11/02/2019 22:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2559
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Mega, cyclones go where they want to. If I remember correctly the months leading up to cyclone Marcia were reasonably dry, at least here anyway.

I looked back at a wetter period and saw the high pressure systems do not plant themselves there on a perpetual basis but are here today gone tomorrow.

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#1490005 - 11/02/2019 23:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: RC]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5992
Originally Posted By: RC
Mega, cyclones go where they want to. If I remember correctly the months leading up to cyclone Marcia were reasonably dry, at least here anyway.

I looked back at a wetter period and saw the high pressure systems do not plant themselves there on a perpetual basis but are here today gone tomorrow.

Cyclones go wherever the steering influences such as nearby midlevel ridges, upper troughs, etc steer them instead of just random motions.
Sometimes the track is highly predictable if the steering flow is clear cut and sometimes its not if theres competing steeering influences pulling at it and they have an erratic track as a result. In certain situations, a large TC can also affect a big enough area of its surrounding mean flow that it influences its own track but in all cases, TC tracks are governed by the laws of physics and the steering influences pulling at it.

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#1490008 - 11/02/2019 23:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: RC]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7823
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: RC
Mega, cyclones go where they want to. If I remember correctly the months leading up to cyclone Marcia were reasonably dry, at least here anyway.

I looked back at a wetter period and saw the high pressure systems do not plant themselves there on a perpetual basis but are here today gone tomorrow.


The point I was making was that you can get good rain events along the east coast even when there is a 'H' in the Tasman Sea. A good 'H' can help inject moisture from the Coral Sea into coastal troughs and sometimes even anchor them through our region. They can also play a role in blocking such low pressure systems (like Oswald) from escaping off the east coast and out into the graveyard.

I agree with your second statement for sure but I still think it's important to remember that there is a difference between say January's ridge and the ridge that set up last week. January's ridge was bone dry because it had no depth and it kept being re-enforced by highs coming across the bight. Last week's ridge was a more traditional summer high that set-up across the southern Tasman Sea and actually gave us some moisture...it's just a shame there were no real upper level troughs for it to feed into. Obviously, even those highs can be serial pests if they just sit there for weeks as you say, but my point is that they aren't all bad as it also depends on the other dynamics surrounding them.

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#1490010 - 12/02/2019 00:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2539
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Oswald was squeezed between two highs down the coast of Aus. Debbie was similar I believe. Without them we would have never seen them here.

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#1490013 - 12/02/2019 07:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
mammatus meestrus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 80
Loc: lennox head
Totally agree Mega.

It's that background moisture ingress from the deep mean E'ly flow from a decent high, not the very weak mobile highs we've had this summer which supplies the background rainfall for the sub-tropics ....and that has gone totally missing this summer.

It's making summer rainfall for the sub-tropics much less reliable, a statistic that can be hidden in generalised analysis by the increasing boom or bust nature of rainfall.

ie, if we get nothing and then an ex Debbie or Oswald scenario summer rainfall might look close to normal in terms of its overall precipitation.
It's the distribution of that rainfall that seems to be changing.

Hopefully we'll get something from the next round of showery pattern from the end of this week.
Don't really want a flood.
It's bone dry here with 2 days of extreme temps ahead.

It seems to be a feature of the modern social media age that people are fixated on rainfall "events" but it's the stuff in between that is probably more climatologically important for certain bioregions.


Edited by mammatus meestrus (12/02/2019 07:05)

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#1490018 - 12/02/2019 07:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5992



Great analysis mammatus and Mega. Convective rainfall from showers and thunderstorms associated with troughiness in summer also helps in this area too but when that source of rainfall becomes less than usual, that exacerbates the problem.

Above is ACCESS-C's latest suggestion (via Weatherzone Layers) for accumulated precip between 4am and midnight tonight - one thing that makes me a bit nervous about today's thunderstorm potential is the fairly strong capping that some models have in southern parts as well as a midlevel inversion and not-so-ideal moisture so guess we'll have to wait and see if the strong steering winds aloft can still manage to advect inland cells into the more unfavourable areas. No southerly change today but there's still some good aspects about today's setup such as the shear and there should still be activity in our general region though.

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#1490019 - 12/02/2019 08:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1307
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Thanks Ken
Thought it was a shaw thing today bayside. But can now see we will have to be lucky
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1490023 - 12/02/2019 08:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
mammatus meestrus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 80
Loc: lennox head
Nice to see you back Ken.

I'm primarily a lurker but very much appreciate reading your astute analysis.

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#1490026 - 12/02/2019 08:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5055
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..12 FEB 2019 TIME..0725

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.7C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........73%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... NW 6kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1007.3Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........2/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900 MONDAY...0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.5C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....23.2C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.6C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....21C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1007.3Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 33kph at 1439
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No significant weather.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11.4(160),Feb47.0(146),Mar285.6(130),Apr96.8(95),YTD440.8(531),

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#1490027 - 12/02/2019 08:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: tsunami]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1006
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Thanks Ken
Thought it was a shaw thing today bayside. But can now see we will have to be lucky


Yep by the look of it there's goes our chance of a storm as well

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#1490028 - 12/02/2019 08:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5992
I wouldn't write things off yet - models currently disagree on extent for today. I'd just monitor the radar and play it by ear. Should still be showers or storms in the general region.

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#1490053 - 12/02/2019 13:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5055
Loc: Wynnum
Looking at 23Z temp trace a temp of 36/37 deg needed to produce and MAINTAIN a TS locally.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11.4(160),Feb47.0(146),Mar285.6(130),Apr96.8(95),YTD440.8(531),

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#1490057 - 12/02/2019 13:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: retired weather man]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Looking at 23Z temp trace a temp of 36/37 deg needed to produce and MAINTAIN a TS locally.


37.6 out here atm..
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#1490058 - 12/02/2019 13:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2667
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
2 rapid fire cells over Emu Creek and Crows Nest but no lightning showing. Moving very quickly to the South East. Very hot but a nice breeze coming off the Bay ATM here at Bracken Ridge.

Hey nice to see you back Ken.
Nice input by everyone too. Thanks.

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#1490059 - 12/02/2019 14:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1349
Loc: Toowoomba
Looks like the dry air has reached Warwick and Toowoomba.

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#1490060 - 12/02/2019 14:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Mega]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2559
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mega


The point I was making was that you can get good rain events along the east coast even when there is a 'H' in the Tasman Sea. A good 'H' can help inject moisture from the Coral Sea into coastal troughs and sometimes even anchor them through our region. They can also play a role in blocking such low pressure systems (like Oswald) from escaping off the east coast and out into the graveyard.

I agree with your second statement for sure but I still think it's important to remember that there is a difference between say January's ridge and the ridge that set up last week. January's ridge was bone dry because it had no depth and it kept being re-enforced by highs coming across the bight. Last week's ridge was a more traditional summer high that set-up across the southern Tasman Sea and actually gave us some moisture...it's just a shame there were no real upper level troughs for it to feed into. Obviously, even those highs can be serial pests if they just sit there for weeks as you say, but my point is that they aren't all bad as it also depends on the other dynamics surrounding them.


Well I am going to launch a crusade to teach those butterflies to flap their wings at the correct time. They are flapping at the wrong time at the moment.


Edited by RC (12/02/2019 14:06)

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#1490066 - 12/02/2019 14:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2667
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Those cells are throwing out a few bolts of lightning now. Showing up on Storm Tracker.

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#1490073 - 12/02/2019 15:55 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 671
Loc: Bardon 4065
Hearing a bit of thunder from the cell NW of Brisbane. Don't think it will be a drought breaker though!
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#1490075 - 12/02/2019 16:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5055
Loc: Wynnum
Thunder to west of Wynnum North 1503K.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11.4(160),Feb47.0(146),Mar285.6(130),Apr96.8(95),YTD440.8(531),

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#1490078 - 12/02/2019 16:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
TrentG Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 26/01/2015
Posts: 21
Loc: Everton Park, QLD
Not much to speak of from that at Woolloongabba - bit of thunder, just enough rain to push the dust around a bit.

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#1490079 - 12/02/2019 16:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5055
Loc: Wynnum
Looks like my comment about lunch time about needing a temp of 36 deg to MAINTAIN a TS locally is ringing true. Thunder reported 10 mins ago has stopped and radar has verified this - the seabreeze wins again.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11.4(160),Feb47.0(146),Mar285.6(130),Apr96.8(95),YTD440.8(531),

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#1490080 - 12/02/2019 16:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: TrentG]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 671
Loc: Bardon 4065
Originally Posted By: TrentG
Not much to speak of from that at Woolloongabba - bit of thunder, just enough rain to push the dust around a bit.


Same here couple of mm at best. Sun out again here now.
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#1490081 - 12/02/2019 16:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 249
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
Just drove through that "thunderstorm". Very heavy rain and bright sunshine at the same time. The reflections were blinding.

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#1490083 - 12/02/2019 16:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
And my lawn continues to smoulder, currently 37.1
_________________________
I hate winter

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#1490084 - 12/02/2019 16:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
StormyAndy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/02/2014
Posts: 6
Just emptied my rain gauge and 13mm from that thunderstorm at Indooroopilly. Part of the time there was still sunshine.


Edited by StormyAndy (12/02/2019 16:36)

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#1490085 - 12/02/2019 16:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
AnnerleyX1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2013
Posts: 77
Temperature has barely budged under that storm, but the DP has rocketed up to 25. Feels like FNQ here right now, absolutely tropical.

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#1490087 - 12/02/2019 16:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3847
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
39.5C atm Damn hot & dry!
I dont wanna know about tomorrow :-(

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#1490092 - 12/02/2019 17:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 549
Loc: Salisbury
we got zilch at Salisbury from the storm being mentioned... ive been digging post holes in the backyard this afternoon and didnt even realise a storm was passing through Brisbane, let alone dropping 13mm at a location 10 minutes drive away. I saw a patch of grey in the sky, but nothing heard and the sky didnt even look storm like where I could see.

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#1490094 - 12/02/2019 17:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2667
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Just had a few rumbles, a sprinkle of rain and some very cooling wind here at Bracken Ridge. Awesome stuff.

Sorry you missed out Namarrkun. You probably lost a couple of kilos in sweat.

I just mowed the front lawn ( dust bowl with weeds) and that was hot enough.

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#1490095 - 12/02/2019 18:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
wetdreams Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2010
Posts: 107
Loc: Mooloolah Valley QLD
Looks like this one has enough north/south path in it to get past that storm killing area for us behind Bald Knob.
Fingers crossed...

I just drove from Toowoomba to the Sunny Coast via Esk and Kilcoy. Got a few snaps of this cell in the very early stages of development.
Had planed to sit up at Bald Knob Rd and watch it build a die before my eyes, but all the parking spots where already taken at 4:15.
Lot of eyes up on the ridge this afternoon... wink
_________________________
Going to sleep with heavy rain on a tin roof always makes for wetdreams.

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#1490096 - 12/02/2019 18:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5369
Loc: Diamond Valley
Good one wetdreams, it's coming down here in our Diamond Valley - oh, wait a minute, it just stopped. laugh

Edit: we just caught the edge of that first one from the south, which looks like it's giving the village a fair whack. The Kilcoy one behind it looks better for us, but it hasn't gone over the 'storm killer' that is Bald Knob. wink


Edited by Inclement Weather (12/02/2019 18:30)
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#1490101 - 12/02/2019 18:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5992



I hope the inland dust thins out a bit by the time it gets close to our region tomorrow.

The smoke plumes from the big out of control fires near Tenterfield, Inverell, etc have been pretty noticeable on satpics and radar too... lots of photos of big pyrocumulus building up over the fires as well.

Latest multiweek EC ensemble is in and it's still suggesting high probabilities of drier than normal conditions covering the majority of Australia during the next 2 to 3 weeks although the lower east coast (including us) is more undecided (could be wet, dry, or neutral).

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#1490103 - 12/02/2019 18:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1810
Loc: Australia
Thanks for the maps Ken, be interesting to see if that dust makes SEQLD

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#1490105 - 12/02/2019 18:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7823
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
dust in Feb lol

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#1490106 - 12/02/2019 18:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3847
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
That be one for the record books, surely!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (12/02/2019 19:00)

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#1490108 - 12/02/2019 19:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Belgarad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/02/2015
Posts: 75
Well today sucked frown

What do you think of our chances tomorrow Nature's Fury & Ken.

I see GFS hinting at some possible action tomorrow night.

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#1490109 - 12/02/2019 19:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 671
Loc: Bardon 4065
Thanks Ken great sat pic BTW. Possible dust and 36 looks like the day to sit inside in the aircon with a sheet over my head and wait for summer to end. Only 3mm from this afternoon's shower / storm.
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#1490110 - 12/02/2019 19:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Ken Kato]
Aussiestormguy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 63
Loc: Allora
Hi Ken, When do you think this dust storm will hit the Warwick area? I just want to know if I should keep my windows shut tonight. Been bloody hot today and I generally leave windows open at night at these times because the aircon can't cope with the heat radiating from the ceiling. Thanks always for your input. ASG.

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#1490111 - 12/02/2019 19:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Aussiestormguy]
Nic_Bri Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/08/2016
Posts: 38
Loc: Mt Gravatt East
Yes I want to know too! Supposed to be doing an aerial run tomorrow morning and dust could be very problematic for photos frown

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#1490113 - 12/02/2019 19:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3019
Loc: Tweed Heads
Some amazing hot temp' obs' today. and apparently another round tomorrow.
Despite the fact that ACCr has an elongated weak trough up the east coast , with no rain. Amberly mslp got to 999.8 hPa
ACCr has no precipitation signal for our area tomorrow

Amazing snap of the sat pic KEN. Your return is met with excitement.
Weathertzone twitter as a similar snap but using the false color satellite . That's a decent cold pool on that sat pic as well . First for the cooler season down south.
Victorian alps expecting some snow with below zeros temps tonight l read on MSN.
snow in Hawaii.. well certainly all very interesting
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#1490115 - 12/02/2019 20:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3019
Loc: Tweed Heads
Re: timing of dust front... if... it arrives. I am assuming it is riding ahead of the cold front which drops south by 10am tomorrow but may be something ahead of the trough line . The forecast mslp by BOM shows the prefrontal line about 10am tomorrow but not the cold front , which is south E of us and long gone. Notice that someone on NSW thread is observing the dust arriving in the distance
EDIT
actually you can see the wind change line on the 512 wagga wagga radar.8.10pm
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR551.loop.shtml
NSW time currently running from cobar, young , Goulbourn
so it may be possible to follow that wind change line into the night

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/msl_36hr_forecast.shtml


Edited by crikey (12/02/2019 20:11)
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#1490117 - 12/02/2019 20:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 937
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Storms across some parts of Sunshine coast hinterland appear to have delivered some totals over 25mm. Normally would not get excited about that in Feb, but given this relentless dry scenario we are in these modest totals would be very welcome indeed.

Ken, great big picture snapshot in that annotated sat pic you posted. Thank you.

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#1490118 - 12/02/2019 20:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Flowin]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2539
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Today was unsurprisingly a joke for areas of SEQ south of SC. Some decent action further north though.

Tomorrow is looking pretty atrocious. Very hot and possibly dusty.

Can't see any chance of storms tomorrow. It's just too dry. We might see some showers come through overnight into Thursday morning with the approach of the southerly change but I suspect the majority of the action will be offshore or far coastal.


Edited by Nature's Fury (12/02/2019 20:14)

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#1490123 - 12/02/2019 20:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1810
Loc: Australia
No sign of Dust haze in the QLD forecast, so maybe it wont reach that far east

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#1490125 - 12/02/2019 20:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
gberg Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2015
Posts: 91
Loc: noosaville
Some nice thunder and lightning with some moderate rain here in Noosa. Further west towards cooroy seems to be a bit heavier on radar!

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#1490127 - 12/02/2019 21:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1810
Loc: Australia
Once again the Gold Coast is covered in low cloud, stretching as far as Beaudesert. Still at a loss as what causes this, i'm guessing because it's rather humid. Will be a oppressive night now, doubt the temp will fall below 25c

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#1490130 - 12/02/2019 21:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1006
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Probably just all the moisture getting blown in off the coast and condensing not too high up Gleno. Predictably no storms here, not even a drop.What a hell summer.Dont want to see another one like it.

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#1490132 - 12/02/2019 21:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
LDRcycles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 98
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
20 minutes of decent rain here, just what the doctor ordered to cool things down!

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#1490134 - 12/02/2019 21:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1810
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Probably just all the moisture getting blown in off the coast and condensing not too high up Gleno. Predictably no storms here, not even a drop.What a hell summer.Dont want to see another one like it.


Yes well tonight will not be fun lol. Tomorrow will be yukky

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#1490137 - 12/02/2019 22:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: gleno71]
shanebat Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/10/2012
Posts: 7
Loc: Tamborine Village, QLD
I have the aircon on full crank. The low cloud blowing in from the east is making things like a greenhouse out here.

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#1490139 - 12/02/2019 22:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
Still 30c here at my place. Very tropical
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#1490140 - 12/02/2019 23:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 549
Loc: Salisbury
Was just reading on another forum where a fella at Cooroy says he got 110mm in 2 hours there this evening.

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#1490166 - 13/02/2019 08:15 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5992
That band of inland dust sure looks impressive on satellite imagery this morning! It's already been affecting western and central parts of the Downs.

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#1490167 - 13/02/2019 08:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5055
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..13 FEB 2019 TIME..0710

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........77%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 22C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... NNW 6kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1006.1Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........1/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900 MONDAY...0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......32.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....23.4C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...22.1C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....22C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1004.4Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..N 46kph at 1709
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Thunder to west mid afternoon but dissipated before reaching here.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11.4(160),Feb47.0(146),Mar285.6(130),Apr96.8(95),YTD440.8(531),

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#1490168 - 13/02/2019 08:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5992



Here's that dust on the satellite imagery (via Weatherzone Layers) as at 6:30am this morning.

I think that although it's possible that our region may get some dust haze later today, the more NNW to NNE component developing in the wind flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere closer to the coast (helped by the seabreeze) could mean that the worst of it is confined to inland parts as far as coastal SE QLD goes.

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#1490181 - 13/02/2019 09:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Ken Kato]
Aussiestormguy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 63
Loc: Allora
Very impressive sat pic Ken. I can see the first wave from here that is about 50km away. It looks very tall and as high as a thunderstorm so not like an apocalyptic looking rolling monster like the one that hit Dubbo early Jan or the one that hit White cliffs in Nov. The second wave appears to be thicker on the sat pic though and looks like it will be here late afternoon.

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#1490190 - 13/02/2019 10:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1006
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
After the Armageddon type conditions out there today comprising of extreme heat and dust what is the likelihood of some coastal thundery activity late tonight.Would be at least something to look forward too but not really a mention of such in the forecasts apart from a slight chance of a piddling shower near the coast.

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#1490194 - 13/02/2019 10:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Belgarad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/02/2015
Posts: 75
I'm no expert,

But I see on BSCH GFS is indicating at some precip later tonight could that be in the form of storms or rain or could it just be the models picking up the dust moving through that probably sounds stupid i know.

Would love some insight from Ken or anyone who knows more than myself grin

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#1490210 - 13/02/2019 12:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
38.7 here already. Sure is a warm day
_________________________
I hate winter

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#1490213 - 13/02/2019 12:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1254
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Well we had an attempt at a storm here on Monday, we were only just on the edge of it and got 1.5mm, bringing our 2019 total to 2mm. frown
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2019 - 145mm Jan - .5 Feb - 1.5, Mar - 143

2018 - 508.2
2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1490217 - 13/02/2019 13:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Blinky_Bill Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/01/2008
Posts: 530
Loc: Beenleigh SEQ
On the 256km Mt Stapy loop, Is that smoke causing radar echos near Tenterfeild?
_________________________
Blinky Bill from Wombat Hill

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#1490221 - 13/02/2019 13:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3847
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Bit of a light shower out here.
Ha, and a small light green blob on Stapy confirming I am not dreaming.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (13/02/2019 13:31)

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#1490222 - 13/02/2019 13:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7823
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Look at those awesome February dewpoints on the Downs - down to 0C.

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#1490225 - 13/02/2019 14:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Robbie Shenton Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/12/2018
Posts: 18
Loc: Forest Lake, QLD
Just went outside to get the mail and noticed that dust haze has filled the sky over Forest Lake 4078

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#1490226 - 13/02/2019 14:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5055
Loc: Wynnum
Dust haze approaching Wynnum. Vis 25km across Moreton Bay, but dropping to 8km in a line from NW to S. Seabreeze holding out the main dust area so far locally.

Max today so far 33.4C Max dew point 25C.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11.4(160),Feb47.0(146),Mar285.6(130),Apr96.8(95),YTD440.8(531),

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#1490228 - 13/02/2019 14:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
T.rex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 77
Loc: Toowoomba Qld
In Toowoomba, visibility dropped very quickly at about 1100 hrs, when the dust moved in. It was so quick that I thought it must be smoke from a Bush Fire, but the dust didn't smell of smoke, so I was somewhat relieved at that.

I am a Member of the Helidon Hills Smoke-Spotters Group, and as the Fire Weather Warning for this area is "Extreme", we don't need any Bush Fires.

Now at 1330 hrs, it's still quite hazy, but not as bad as it was a few hours ago.
_________________________
Mike,

On the Edge of the Range.

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#1490229 - 13/02/2019 14:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3847
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
42.2C, damn hot.

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#1490239 - 13/02/2019 16:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1672
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Are those dew points at Gold Coast accurate today? 28 degree dew point today there. These are some of the highest I have seen down that way if it is accurate. Would be so uncomfortable haha


Edited by Stephen (13/02/2019 16:01)
_________________________
S.Kunze

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#1490243 - 13/02/2019 16:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Phantom Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2009
Posts: 211
Loc: Buckendoon, NSW. 2472
Max was 40.9 c here today, bar down to 998. Since sea breeze arrived now 36.9 and falling, dust haze present.

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#1490250 - 13/02/2019 17:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Stephen]
Timbuck Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/10/2013
Posts: 252
Loc: Highland park , Gold Coast
Originally Posted By: Stephen
Are those dew points at Gold Coast accurate today? 28 degree dew point today there. These are some of the highest I have seen down that way if it is accurate. Would be so uncomfortable haha


It sure feels like they are. Its 38deg in my work shed and Ive been working in bare feet and bordies all day as the sweat was just filling my shoes up , and nothing was evaporating off my body , Ive drank 3L of water and havent taken a piss yet hahaha.

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#1490251 - 13/02/2019 17:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Aussiestormguy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 63
Loc: Allora
The first wave of dust has sort of passed and visibility got down to about 15km. meaning I couldn't see the mountains that far away. This next wave coming looks quite a bit thicker and longer in duration than the last. currently about 100km from my position. Highest temp out here was 38.9 but a dry heat. Still I just kept inside. ASG.

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#1490252 - 13/02/2019 17:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1244
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
39C here today and very dry, relative humidity was down to 10% earlier this arvo. Sucked away any trace of moisture from yesterdays 3.0mm of rain. Grass sorta greened up after last weeks 20mm but is back to brown again after todays roasting cry
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 660mm

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#1490253 - 13/02/2019 17:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1810
Loc: Australia
Looks like a nice roll cloud south of Yamba has developed this past hour

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#1490254 - 13/02/2019 18:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2667
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Some serious warnings in place for just over the border for fires.

https://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/major-fire-updates

Watch & Act - Wallangarra fire, Jennings (Tenterfield LGA) 13/02/2019 17:37

A bush fire is burning in the area of Jennings, on the NSW and Queensland border, north of Tenterfield. The fire has burnt more than 6,100ha and is being controlled.
Emergency Warning - Bruxner Highway fire, west of Tabulam (Tenterfield LGA) 13/02/2019 17:36

A bush fire is burning near the Bruxner Highway, west of Tabulam. The fire has burnt more than 2,800ha.
Emergency Warning - Tingha Plateau (Inverell LGA) 13/02/2019 17:31

A bush fire is burning in the Tingha, Old Mill and Stanborough area. The fire has burnt more than 12,000ha and is out of control.
Watch & Act - Linton fire (Tamworth LGA) 13/02/2019 16:43

A bush fire is burning in the area of Warrabah, north of Tamworth. The fire has burnt more than 1,500 hectares and is being control.


BoM NSW
Fire Weather Warning
for the Far North Coast, New England, Northern Slopes and North Western fire areas
Issued at 4:08 am EDT on Wednesday 13 February 2019.
Weather Situation
Hot, dry and windy conditions ahead of a trough are generating elevated fire dangers across the northeast corner of the state.

For the rest of Wednesday 13 February:
Severe Fire Danger is forecast for the following fire areas:
Far North Coast, New England and Northern Slopes

Very High Fire Danger is forecast for the following fire area:
North Western

The NSW Rural Fire Service advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.rfs.nsw.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.


Edited by Colin Maitland (13/02/2019 18:05)

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#1490255 - 13/02/2019 18:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2667
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Latest update for SEQ

Fire Weather Warning
for the Central Highlands and Coalfields, Maranoa and Warrego and Darling Downs and Granite Belt forecast districts
Issued at 4:58 am EST on Wednesday 13 February 2019.
Weather Situation
Hot and dry conditions combined with freshening west to southwesterly winds will lead to severe to locally extreme fire dangers across forested areas of the Maranoa, Darling Downs & Granite Belt, southeastern Central West and southwestern Central Highlands and Coalfields districts today.

For the rest of Wednesday 13 February:
Extreme Fire Danger is forecast for the following forecast district:
Darling Downs and Granite Belt

Severe Fire Danger is forecast for the following forecast districts:
Central Highlands and Coalfields and Maranoa and Warrego

The Rural Fire Service Queensland advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.

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#1490258 - 13/02/2019 18:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7823
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
All of this fire and dust makes me sick to the stomach even moreso now because it should not be happening in February. I feel for the people directly affected by this.

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#1490263 - 13/02/2019 19:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3019
Loc: Tweed Heads
wow some hot stuff today . How often would this region get 40 + deg in February?
----- Fabulous capture of that dust front Ken . Amazing.
Apparently it is on its way to New Zealand

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/...fLCP&OCID=HPDHP
------

we saw the dust haze this morning and was a little heavier in the afternoon. A light gritty dust covering over the white car.
--------
Automated weather forecast giving the tweed a few mm of rain tomorrow. ACCESS R is showing the small precipitation signal largely off shore for us on the border.
The surface synoptic showing some weak troughing on the coastline .
12am this morning the precitation signal is mid to Nth coast NSW. The trough contracts northward
2am extending to the border coast
5am Brisbane
The coastal blob sits on the border and nth of for most of the day
Sunshine coast 2pm until Friday lunchtime.

Again l say ACCESS r has most of the activity just off shore with the dregs for the land.
For us at the tweed , l will be delighted if l hear rain drops on the roof in the early hours of this morning and potentially during the morning as well.Lets see

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1490271 - 13/02/2019 19:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3489
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea will be interesting to see if there is some precip tonight or early morning perhaps associated with the change. Think Tweed is probably best chance or south. GFS showing abit of a precip signal tonight or early tomorrow morning...doubt it though .

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#1490272 - 13/02/2019 19:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Aussiestormguy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 63
Loc: Allora
Vis down to 9km here now and this is just the start and will last for hours. I feel like I am getting micro - derm abrasion on my face every time I wash it. Getting hard to breathe. Most of this is going north of us here to CQ though. It is very cool to observe but those with respiratory problems should stay indoors. ASG.

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#1490276 - 13/02/2019 20:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1209
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Dew points were very low here this afternoon compared to areas east of here. The high was around 39 but it felt like 33-34. I saw a dew point of 4 earlier, it might have been lower than that. Even right now the temp is still 32 with a RH of 15%.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1490279 - 13/02/2019 20:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2667
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Looking at the significant weather recorded today and if I counted correctly (3 times) there were a 105 places throughout Queensland that recorded 40+C. That is amazing. Very sickening though. I am so over this heat, but more to come. This spring/ summer of 2018/19 surely must have the record for the most days of 30+C. I know we broke the record for consecutive days over 32C which was 16 in January while the previous record was 14 days in 2017

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#1490280 - 13/02/2019 20:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Mega]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1810
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Mega
All of this fire and dust makes me sick to the stomach even moreso now because it should not be happening in February. I feel for the people directly affected by this.


Agreed, this normally a spring type setup

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#1490281 - 13/02/2019 20:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1810
Loc: Australia
Looks like the change is just south of Ballina, this will be very welcome

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#1490282 - 13/02/2019 20:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
Christ is hot still, 32c here
_________________________
I hate winter

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#1490287 - 13/02/2019 21:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3847
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Still 32.8C atm, thank xxxx for the aircon & the electricity to drive it.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (13/02/2019 21:50)

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#1490289 - 13/02/2019 21:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7823
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Pretty cool sight on the Gympie radar, dust front heading east while the seabreeze front is still heading west (went through Kingaroy about an hour ago).

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#1490290 - 13/02/2019 21:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3489
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Cells springin up near border ranges. Abit of thunder locally here too.


Edited by Steve O (13/02/2019 21:56)

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#1490295 - 13/02/2019 22:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Nic_Bri Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/08/2016
Posts: 38
Loc: Mt Gravatt East
Just had a light shower here from out of nowhere. Really heavy drops of rain though

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#1490298 - 13/02/2019 23:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: gleno71]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 937
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Looks like the change is just south of Ballina, this will be very welcome

Hopefully temp drop there is a good measure of what we should get further north, cos I would like to get some relief tonight.
edit: actually I just looked at readings at Ballina and Evans Head, not much change - do you think it is just a wind without much affect on apparent temp?


Edited by Flowin (13/02/2019 23:05)

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#1490299 - 13/02/2019 23:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1672
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Nice looking cell just popped up and headed towards Maroochydore. Quite unexpected for me, since I didnt look at any charts today and didnt have any reason to believe storms were on the cards grin
_________________________
S.Kunze

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#1490300 - 13/02/2019 23:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Sandbank Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 66
Just got the smallest touch of the rain and thunder at Caloundra South. Went outside to stand in it just to feel.

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#1490302 - 13/02/2019 23:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Downburst Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 27/02/2014
Posts: 24
Loc: Sippy Downs, Sunny Coast
I just heard water trickling into the tank here at Sippy Downs from that lovely little storm cell, still raining. 😃

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#1490303 - 13/02/2019 23:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10632
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Dusty today at South West Rocks


The southerly change arrived here around 11am this morning. Some passing showers have moved through since sunset.

Yesterday's maximums (12/2)
Port Macq - 39.7C
Kempsey - 39.5C
Coffs - 33.5C
Grafton - 39.9C


Today's maximums (13/2)
Port Macq - 29.4C (southerly arrived at 9:10am)
Kempsey - 34.5C (southerly arrived at 10:50am)
Coffs - 39.9C (southerly arrived at 1:19pm)
Grafton - 43.2C (southerly arrived at 4:40pm)


Today, Coffs was only 0.6C off its February record high of 40.5C which was set back in 1952.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
April 2019 Rainfall: 161.4mm (April Avg. 169.3mm) // April 2019 Raindays: 19 (April Avg. 12.9 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 422.0mm (Jan-Apr Avg. 666.4mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 57 (Jan-Apr Avg. 55.6 raindays)

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#1490311 - 14/02/2019 08:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5055
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..14 FEB 2019 TIME..0750

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......27.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........70%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... SSE 12kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1011.3Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........15KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........7/8 cloud, haze..
RAIN SINCE 0900 WEDNESDAY...0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......33.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....24.1C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...22.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....22C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1006.6Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..N 43kph at 1358
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Dust haze developed early afternoon, thinning overnight.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11.4(160),Feb47.0(146),Mar285.6(130),Apr96.8(95),YTD440.8(531),

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#1490318 - 14/02/2019 09:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Aussiestormguy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 63
Loc: Allora
Is anyone else getting an error message trying to bring up any maps in WZ?

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#1490319 - 14/02/2019 09:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Warloq01 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/11/2018
Posts: 28
Warm windy southerlys at it again.

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#1490320 - 14/02/2019 09:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Aussiestormguy]
one drop Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/04/2014
Posts: 112
Loc: maryborough
Originally Posted By: Aussiestormguy
Is anyone else getting an error message trying to bring up any maps in WZ?


yeah, i'm getting this.

Quote:
An error occurred.

Homepage | Back

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#1490324 - 14/02/2019 10:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Aussiestormguy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 63
Loc: Allora
Thanks one drop. I am still having the same problem.

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#1490325 - 14/02/2019 10:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 606
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Yep, getting the error here also. assume it maintenance,,,,,or,,, everyone been fired for not bringing decent rain grin
_________________________
Weather or not ?

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#1490332 - 14/02/2019 11:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: PlumbBob]
planet x Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/02/2015
Posts: 58
Loc: Brisbane
Same message here.
Ahahaa I love that. Fired for not bringing rain Ahaa

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#1490333 - 14/02/2019 11:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Multiversity Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 155
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
BOM forecast is for S/SEs for next few days. Temps for Brisbane are for +30s. Is this unusual? I would have expected <30s with trades. Could this be due to shorter fetches across Tasman or warmer than average SSTs? Any comments anyone?
_________________________
Science is the only answer

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#1490349 - 14/02/2019 13:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Multiversity]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2539
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Brisbane
14/12:00pm 30.3 30.3 20.2 54 6.7 SSE 20 39 11 21 1012.3 0.0
Archerfield
14/12:00pm 30.9 27.9 19.9 52 7.2 SSE 35 46 19 25 1012.3 0.0
Gatton
14/12:00pm 31.2 29.0 17.9 45 8.6 SE 26 44 14 24 - 0.0

I have never seen 30+ degree temps after a southerly change. And the winds are actually quite decent.

Next Tuesday has light winds turning SE'ly 15-20 kph in Brisbane with 33 degrees. Crazy stuff.

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#1490360 - 14/02/2019 15:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
one drop Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/04/2014
Posts: 112
Loc: maryborough
yeah, i'll take any weather over this heat. endless heat.
9 months of summer 1 month each of the other 'seasons' lately.
frown

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#1490365 - 14/02/2019 16:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Brisbane
14/12:00pm 30.3 30.3 20.2 54 6.7 SSE 20 39 11 21 1012.3 0.0
Archerfield
14/12:00pm 30.9 27.9 19.9 52 7.2 SSE 35 46 19 25 1012.3 0.0
Gatton
14/12:00pm 31.2 29.0 17.9 45 8.6 SE 26 44 14 24 - 0.0

I have never seen 30+ degree temps after a southerly change. And the winds are actually quite decent.

Next Tuesday has light winds turning SE'ly 15-20 kph in Brisbane with 33 degrees. Crazy stuff.


It was 35 here at lunch time, wouldnt call the change a cool one but rather a wind change
_________________________
I hate winter

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#1490368 - 14/02/2019 16:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6723
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
Yeah gfs has Yeppoon on 36 with SE winds next week WTF , se winds are cooler ? not hotter?
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#1490407 - 14/02/2019 19:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Vinnie]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2539
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Vinnie
Yeah gfs has Yeppoon on 36 with SE winds next week WTF , se winds are cooler ? not hotter?


I thought perhaps the southerly was only a very weak at the surface, but GFS shows south-easterlies almost right up through the atmosphere for Tuesday and Wednesday across SE and central QLD. Baffling.


Edited by Nature's Fury (14/02/2019 19:01)

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#1490416 - 14/02/2019 19:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
Back to 35-36 here next week as well. [censored] cool changes lol
_________________________
I hate winter

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#1490429 - 14/02/2019 22:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10632
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
The onshore showers overnight brought 5.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am here.
Port Macquarie (13.8mm) and Dorrigo (28.2mm) had their wettest days so far this year.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
April 2019 Rainfall: 161.4mm (April Avg. 169.3mm) // April 2019 Raindays: 19 (April Avg. 12.9 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 422.0mm (Jan-Apr Avg. 666.4mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 57 (Jan-Apr Avg. 55.6 raindays)

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