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#1476280 - 20/11/2018 23:07 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: GringosRain]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
A mathematical method for predicting solar cycle activity has been discovered.
This lecture is really worth watching. The scientist/presenters accent is a little difficult at times, but that should not stop anyone watching the full hour lecture.

In short, the method has been able to accurately predict the historical solar cycles without observational inputs. They have also used the method to predict upcoming cycles and find that we are very close to the next grand solar minima. Starts in 2020 and runs through until about 2055. From what I can see compared to other minima it will be short and intense. From the end of this solar minima we will return to a period of warming as part of another 350-400 year cycle. She also discusses, super grand minma on longer scales.

The peak of this event will be 2028-2032.

This is very interesting and must see viewing for those genuinely interested in solar weather and its affects on our climate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2215&v=M_yqIj38UmY


Lisa Upton quotes some of Zharkova's work in her Solar prediction videos as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBUXln7qdoo


Some insight into how the Electric Universe/Plasma cosmology works based on Jupter's Aurora and Birkeland currents.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pitwnMK-RxU

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#1476379 - 21/11/2018 19:09 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: marakai]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
A short version and interpretation of Gringo's Zharkova Video above:
https://youtu.be/SHGbri7gWWw

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#1476422 - 21/11/2018 23:32 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: marakai]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7770
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Does anyone know what EOFs are? I understand they are Empirical Orthogonal Functions unless otherwise indicated.

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#1476425 - 21/11/2018 23:57 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: marakai]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Analysis of data using time and spatial signals to break the data down to its basics along those two vectors.

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#1476564 - 22/11/2018 18:14 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: marakai]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7770
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Thank you for clarifying the perspective smile .

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#1477398 - 27/11/2018 23:45 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: marakai]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ

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#1478022 - 01/12/2018 16:31 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: marakai]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7770
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: marakai

With the water molecule having an electric dipole moment, it would be understandable for a medium such as ocean water.

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#1478063 - 02/12/2018 00:04 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: marakai]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
It also works with water vapour as well. The Earths magnetic poles exchange energy back and forth with the Suns.


Edited by marakai (02/12/2018 00:06)

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#1478141 - 02/12/2018 15:29 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: marakai]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7770
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Water vapour is a phase of the water molecule [H2O]. The experiment linked was for the liquid phase smile .


Edited by Seira (02/12/2018 15:30)

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#1478150 - 02/12/2018 16:35 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: marakai]
amphetamarine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2004
Posts: 363
Loc: Cairns
We are travelling through time and space. On our very own spaceship...Earth. Ready made for yas. Look after it.

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#1478773 - 08/12/2018 02:40 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: marakai]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Solar forcing of ENSO ?

Quote:
Key Points:
• A solar cycle’s fiducial clock does not run from the canonical min or max, instead resetting when old cycle flux is gone.

• Many cycles indicate that ENSO is related to the phase of this clock, through driven changes in the cosmic ray flux.

• Cycle 24 is projected to end in 2020. We anticipate a strong El Ni ̃no in 2019, and a strong La Ni ̃na in 2020. If so, cosmic rays would appear to have greater influ-ence on ENSO than solar irradiance

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1812.02692.pdf

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#1479033 - 09/12/2018 22:36 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: marakai]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
A challenge to just about all we think we know.
THE SUN IS NOT GASEOUS.


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#1479415 - 11/12/2018 21:05 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: marakai]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7770
Loc: Adelaide Hills
I hope we learn more about the sun...and that...that learning is not conditional.

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#1483264 - 30/12/2018 22:55 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: marakai]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the context of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere coupling

"Abstract

Rapid intensification of tropical storms is examined in the context of solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere system. Tropical cyclone “best tracks” in the southern and northern hemispheres are used in the superposed epoch analysis of time series of solar wind parameters. The results indicate that rapid intensification of tropical storms tends to follow arrivals of high-speed solar wind from coronal holes or coronal mass ejections. The ensuing auroral and polar cap activity including ionospheric currents and ionospheric convection generates atmospheric gravity waves that propagate from the high-latitude lower thermosphere both upward and downward."

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682618305765

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#1483294 - 31/12/2018 08:50 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: marakai]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
As 2018 closes with below average rain locally, I repeat my call that with the solar cycle at its bottom now, this rain pattern is consistent with such an occurrence.

The solar cycle should start to pick up again later in 2019 and with it increased rainfall, such rain peaking around 2022-24 The oceanic patterns will as usual follow.

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#1483483 - 01/01/2019 02:07 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: retired weather man]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
As 2018 closes with below average rain locally, I repeat my call that with the solar cycle at its bottom now, this rain pattern is consistent with such an occurrence.

The solar cycle should start to pick up again later in 2019 and with it increased rainfall, such rain peaking around 2022-24 The oceanic patterns will as usual follow.


What if the Solar cycle go's quiet for an extended period though as some expect ?
Be interesting to see if this current low off of Cape York spark's up in response to the expected Solar stream of energy from the recent Coronal hole stream expected over the next few days.
Time will tell I guess...

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#1483621 - 01/01/2019 21:15 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: marakai]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 388
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Hey guys, only just found this thread had started from reading another , top stuff and great reading. Been an S.O. watcher for some time, very interesting stuff space weather.
Though I may not have much input, I really wish the Mods could some how add a thumbs up button to acknowledge readers support for the content you guys research and provide. Well done.
DD
_________________________
Just here for the weather

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#1485354 - 14/01/2019 05:26 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: DDstorm]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: DDstorm
Hey guys, only just found this thread had started from reading another , top stuff and great reading. Been an S.O. watcher for some time, very interesting stuff space weather.
Though I may not have much input, I really wish the Mods could some how add a thumbs up button to acknowledge readers support for the content you guys research and provide. Well done.
DD


Thank's DD... I'm also a long time S.O watcher as well..signed up in 2012 as a paid member after lurking for a while.
Nasa and China over the last 5 years alone have taken much of this stuff on board to the point of launching satellites to study/research it all... SWARM Mission being but one example....https://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Swarm

Nearly everyone I know is unaware of all of this stuff let alone a Carrington event type scenario... Sheesh even Carrington comes up as a typo here... go figure ?

I don't think people are aware of what a combined weakening of Earth's Magnetic field combined with shifting at the same time that the Sun is undergoing the same changes means for us all... Nor the possible consequences.

The only constant seem's to be a total disregard for it all.

Current Science press releases seem intent on measuring the equivalence of Gnat foreskins of temperature anomaly's to do with weather compared to arbitrary 30 year periods...
All the while ignoring the very real and obvious effects of Space weather on Earthquakes and Cyclone/Hurricane's already acknowledged by their own launch of satellites to study such phenomena.

Recent discovery's of Flux transfer events and the realization that the earth and the sun are connected inextricably via magnetic (electric) energy fields which flux and wane between the two and possibly between all planets within our solar system are yet another aspect of the Earths Climate not only poorly understood..... But totally misunderstood....

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#1489580 - 08/02/2019 13:20 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: marakai]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2270
Loc: Maryfarms NQ

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#1489588 - 08/02/2019 14:06 Re: Space Weather and it's effects on Drivng the Climate. [Re: marakai]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Interesting concept, presumably DC currents linking celestial bodies via plasma "wires", the currents then creating magnetic fields which can influence planets with their own magnetic fields.

To me these plasma current paths must also have tangible "tension", or else could not push/pull against cosmic objects under the rule of every force must have an equal and opposite force.

However, if true, twists in these plasma conductors, would presumably influence the earths magnetic pole orientation. The movement of which, although not widely reported is as I understand it, causing concern due to no one being able to explain the present excursion of the magnetic pole drift presently experienced. Nor predict where it will be in coming years. Thank God for GPS.

If I'm correct, a standard magnetic compass is needing correction far more frequently than typical of past centuries when it slowly "rocked" around a far restricted physical region at the poles. I understand its presently tracked off left field and well outside the previous recorded latitude extent.

Interesting concept Marakai.

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