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#1489505 - 07/02/2019 18:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
And there's the shortwave capture on tonight's EC run. Hahaha.

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#1489535 - 07/02/2019 21:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
https://imgur.com/SSjkkz0

must be missing something here not seeing any s/w on the run

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#1489539 - 07/02/2019 21:38 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
You're missing the last 4 days of the run. On closer inspection, it hasn't quite been captured but comes close.

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#1489624 - 08/02/2019 18:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACC G has our ex Nth East coast low developing into an INVEST by ~ Monday 11th feb. On the Fiji/bom border ~163e. Intensifying into a TC by Tuesday the 12th feb . And just to terrorise us some more , starts to track SW on Thursday the 14th as a significant TC..
Certainly a TC watch on the cards soon.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1489715 - 09/02/2019 08:47 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
There appears to be some consensus building between the major models of the tropical low off the FNQ coast moving east and deepening. EC and GFS have it moving east quite quickly and merging with another low pressure area near the Solomons. However, Access G has it moving slower and intensifying into a TC before it has a chance to merge with the other low area. All models then have a general western movement towards the end of their runs. As usual, Access-G is the outlier with quite an intense system sitting perilously close off the Capricorn Coast at the end of its run. The extended GFS (para) has a similarly intense system near Noumea towards the end of its run. It'll be an interesting few weeks ahead.
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#1489720 - 09/02/2019 09:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2601
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
As usual, Access-G is the outlier with quite an intense system sitting perilously close off the Capricorn Coast at the end of its run.


We know it is not going to happen, but we can only hope it does.

Heavy rain from St Lawrence south, to deep inland is desperately needed. All the way down through NSW.

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#1489738 - 09/02/2019 11:36 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
There is a little window of opportunity at the moment for this system (Invest 96P) to organise itself with CIMMS showing relatively low VWS over it at the moment. This has moved the JTWC to issue the following analysis, where it has divided two distinct camps of possibilities:

Quote:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.9S 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER MOVED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST QUEENSLAND. RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. 96P IS IN A MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SSTS OFFSET BY HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SPLIT BETWEEN TWO SOLUTIONS. GFS AND ECMWF TRACK 96P EASTWARD BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. ON THE OTHER HAND, NAVGEM AND UKMET ARE TRACKING 96P EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING IT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


I have started a new thread on this system here.


Edited by Inclement Weather (09/02/2019 11:43)
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#1491966 - 22/02/2019 10:18 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
tag Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2010
Posts: 479
Loc: Alligator creek
Something starting in the far north above Cairns in the CS or just another passing storm

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#1491983 - 22/02/2019 11:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: tag]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 3036
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: tag
Something starting in the far north above Cairns in the CS or just another passing storm


Looks interesting.

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#1492353 - 24/02/2019 14:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 251
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
GFS has picked up a system moving towards New Caledonia late next week. Far out but something to watch.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php...&r=au&dpdt=&mc=


Edited by Ahab (24/02/2019 14:08)

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#1492451 - 25/02/2019 16:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Please, nobody look at the latest extended GFS (00UTC). It will turn you into a pillar of salt.
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#1492453 - 25/02/2019 16:29 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
ROFL. I already mentioned it in the SE QLD section.

To be fair extended GFS has been hinting at a system coming in from the Coral Sea for about 2 days with a wide array of possible tracks.

EC has hints of a very weak low at 240hrs but nothing like GFS.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1492492 - 25/02/2019 21:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Bhaha. Classic. Now that would be interesting.
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#1493557 - 08/03/2019 18:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS g Has a weak low forming at 152e 5s this week.
... that low slowly strengthening
by Thursday t+162 hrs .. 155e 12s and we will be taking note as tracking is SW on Thursday. At this point the low is a small tropical storm though
Here is Wednesday surface synoptic of the Greater Australian region where you can see the cross equatorial looking more favourable for the coral sea

source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1493561 - 08/03/2019 18:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 3036
Loc: Chillagoe
Hope it's a slow low and sits over Chillagoe for 4 weeks. None of the dams this side of Dimbulah filled up with the previous rain. They are still at a very low level.

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#1493762 - 11/03/2019 08:06 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
GFS has been persisting with a deepening low starting near the Solomons the past few runs.
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#1493776 - 11/03/2019 10:42 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1373
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Bsch storm has it as quite a substantial cyclone by next tuesday with 100 kt winds
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1493777 - 11/03/2019 10:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 504
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Only GFS has it strong and moving Generally S/SE due to an interaction of a upper trough. All other models have it weak and crossing the far north QLD coast.
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#1493780 - 11/03/2019 11:13 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Humm 12z EPS ens did include members on par with the GFS hit.

https://imgur.com/zZ7SMKx look @ the mean


Edited by vorts (11/03/2019 11:14)

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#1493781 - 11/03/2019 11:22 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
18Z GFS has a monster system that gets down to 906hPa but recurves before it hits the coast.

GFS runs have certainly been trending more towards to the recurve scenario whilst EC still doesn't want a bar of it.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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