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#1489740 - 09/02/2019 11:42 Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5369
Loc: Diamond Valley
I might as well kick off discussion here on this system which could develop later in the forecasting period and turn back towards the coast. I have cut and pasted my last post from the general thread here.

There is a little window of opportunity at the moment for this system (Invest 96P) to organise itself with CIMMS showing relatively low VWS over it at the moment. This has moved the JTWC to issue the following analysis, where it has divided two distinct camps of possibilities:

Quote:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.9S 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER MOVED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST QUEENSLAND. RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. 96P IS IN A MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SSTS OFFSET BY HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SPLIT BETWEEN TWO SOLUTIONS. GFS AND ECMWF TRACK 96P EASTWARD BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. ON THE OTHER HAND, NAVGEM AND UKMET ARE TRACKING 96P EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING IT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
[/quote]
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#1489746 - 09/02/2019 12:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2539
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Access-G the ultimate tease has the monsoon low returning as a cyclone on WBB/SC's doorstep next Monday. GFS kills it in the SW Pacific. EC has it returning but stalling a fair way off the east Aus coast.

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#1489793 - 09/02/2019 17:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7816
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Big ridge weakness from 168hrs. All models show it (even the latest ACCESS-G). Don't like this one's chances of making it anywhere near the Queensland coast honestly.

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#1489916 - 10/02/2019 19:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G gradient wind pattern has the coral sea low merging with the other TS/low to its east, this week. If you watch the 7 day animation the animation show an amazing pattern of the the 2 lows doing a fujiwarra until they join. Then its a massive system in the coral sea and Nth Tasman.
ACCESS suggesting this INVEST will have TC status very soon. At the 12th feb at latest
The low tracks east as far as 167e 16s and then starts a SW track as a big mama on Friday the 15th Feb

Anyway watch the interesting animation here

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (10/02/2019 20:01)
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#1489923 - 10/02/2019 22:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: crikey]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1017
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Cool animation there Crikey. Will be watching with interest.

Info from JTWC re:92P
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 178.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15S 178.4W, APPROXIMATELY 286
NM NORTHEAST OF NAVI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 100414Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. 92P LIES
IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
FAVORABLE EASTWARD OUTFLOW IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (2830C) IN THIS PORTION OF THE CORAL SEA.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH A POSSIBLE RECURVE TO THE WEST AFTERWARDS DUE TO CYCLONE
INTERACTION WITH INVEST 96P WHICH WILL BE TO ITS NORTH.
MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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#1489927 - 11/02/2019 07:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 504
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Looks like a ridge tries to re-establish itself after the upper trough affects this system for a couple days in a weeks time.
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#1489928 - 11/02/2019 08:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5229
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
EC ensemble has it swinging back as a big one:



Take this one with a pinch of salt - way too far out to have any real bearing - but an indicator that things could get interesting somewhere on the coast in the next couple of weeks.

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#1489945 - 11/02/2019 12:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7816
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
What run is that from, Kev? None of the EPS ensemble members from 12z show this at all. Or, is this beyond the 240hr timeframe?

Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Looks like a ridge tries to re-establish itself after the upper trough affects this system for a couple days in a weeks time.


Yeah, looks as if it stays shallow enough to not get pulled away by the shortwave.

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#1489946 - 11/02/2019 12:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1672
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
That model says 24/2. Guess itís the 14 Day. Less reliable, but definitely shows some promise and something to look out for.
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#1489947 - 11/02/2019 12:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Stephen]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7816
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Stephen
That model says 24/2. Guess itís the 14 Day. Less reliable, but definitely shows some promise and something to look out for.


Gee, that's GFS extended territory. Think I'll pass on that until we get closer lol.

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#1489949 - 11/02/2019 13:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7816
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Jeez, look how close it still comes to being dragged away with the shortwave though (168 to 216 hrs). Knife-edge stuff right there:


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#1489954 - 11/02/2019 15:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5229
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Mega
What run is that from, Kev? None of the EPS ensemble members from 12z show this at all. Or, is this beyond the 240hr timeframe?

Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Looks like a ridge tries to re-establish itself after the upper trough affects this system for a couple days in a weeks time.


Yeah, looks as if it stays shallow enough to not get pulled away by the shortwave.

Itís the EC 14 day forecast. Obviously in la la land but worth posting to show the potential. EC can be good at this longer range stuff - not the detail but a heads up that something can be worth watching.

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#1489967 - 11/02/2019 17:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 235
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Himawaricast image from Jcsat2B at 0600UT.


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#1489971 - 11/02/2019 18:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5369
Loc: Diamond Valley
The latest EC is more interesting for its upper steering pattern (an amplifying short wave trough) that drags a small but rather intense TC SW towards SEQ (but well offshore at the end of its run). This brings it into alignment with several other models including Access-G, JMA, and ICON. A long way out where anything can happen. The Coral Sea is notorious for its difficulty in long term tropical forecasting, but it's noteworthy that there is consensus of sorts this far out.

The latest JTWC analysis has upgraded 96 Invest to medium. I must say it is looking far better organised this afternoon despite unfavourable shear.

Quote:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 156.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 160.3E, APPROXIMATELY 837 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102259Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 102301Z ASCAT PASS TO THE WEST DEMONSTRATES HIGHER, 30 KT STRAIGHTLINE WINDS TO THE NORTH AS PART OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. 96P LIES IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, WITH THE HIGHER WINDS WRAPPING AROUND TO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.




Edited by Inclement Weather (11/02/2019 18:09)
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#1489972 - 11/02/2019 18:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7816
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Starting to look more and more likely that the low that wreaked havoc across NQ last week will become the most dominant low again along an active monsoon trough in the Coral Sea. Only this time, she may even get a name.

Still a long way off though.

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#1489973 - 11/02/2019 18:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18969
Loc: The Beach.
GFS has it as a TC in a coupe of days time.
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#1489974 - 11/02/2019 18:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Learjet]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3895
Loc: Gordonvale
Originally Posted By: Learjet
Himawaricast image from Jcsat2B at 0600UT.


As a side note, the Gulf flooding in that pic is INSANE.
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#1489982 - 11/02/2019 19:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2172
Loc: Mareeba
Amazing image Learjet. How wide is the flooding at its widest point. Looks 70+km's
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#1489992 - 11/02/2019 21:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7816
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
GFS has it as a TC in a coupe of days time.


Yeah, same with EC. Biggest difference in those two models at that point in time is a second circulation which, as usual, GFS morphs into a baby TC which then initiates the Fujiwhara dance with the main low. EC/ICON just wash that second circulation out while the main low continues on its track west or southwest (much more likely scenario imo).

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#1489997 - 11/02/2019 21:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 937
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
GFS has it as a TC in a coupe of days time.


Yeah, same with EC. Biggest difference in those two models at that point in time is a second circulation which, as usual, GFS morphs into a baby TC which then initiates the Fujiwhara dance with the main low. EC/ICON just wash that second circulation out while the main low continues on its track west or southwest (much more likely scenario imo).

I have been watching that postulated dance of the lows on several models now for a few days. If such an interaction does eventuate or just remains a possibility then I would say this is a situation that the models will struggle with. More so than the usual limitations of model skill at different lead times. Something cooking beyond the coral sea and australian area of reporting appears to have been on the cards for a while but what that may be still seems quite uncertain.

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