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#1490002 - 11/02/2019 23:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Simmo FNQ]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 235
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Originally Posted By: Simmo FNQ
Amazing image Learjet. How wide is the flooding at its widest point. Looks 70+km's


Yes I believe it is something like that. If you were in the middle, it must look like being in the middle of the ocean with no land in sight.

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#1490007 - 11/02/2019 23:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 163
Loc: Moranbah
Plus you can see the progress of the floodwaters moving down towards Lake Eyre...and the outflow of floodwaters from the Burdekin...


Edited by FujiWha (11/02/2019 23:39)

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#1490015 - 12/02/2019 07:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5369
Loc: Diamond Valley
The latest EC is consistent with its previous run with the system getting a little closer and slows before approaching the SEQ coast, but still a way off. EC has it as a rather intense system for one so far south. It will be interesting to see what the shear profile will be next week as it's normally quite hostile down here. The upper steering winds will also be a factor.
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#1490021 - 12/02/2019 08:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7816
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Venuatu Met giving it TC status later tonight:


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#1490022 - 12/02/2019 08:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2172
Loc: Mareeba
Will this system still be classed as the same low that caused all the flooding? What about if GFS extended happens?
Can anyone remember when this low formed? Was it around the 17th January?


Edited by Simmo FNQ (12/02/2019 08:15)
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#1490029 - 12/02/2019 08:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Simmo FNQ]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5369
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Simmo FNQ
Will this system still be classed as the same low that caused all the flooding?


It is the same low, Simmo; however, as it has never been named, it has not been previously 'classed' as such. Still, it would have an incredible history if it were to come back as a TC. Hopefully, if it does, it will not be as destructive and as deadly as its previous incarnation - except as a 'fish storm'.

Meanwhile, the JTWC has upgraded the potential for formation to a TC (on the US scale) to high:

Quote:
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 163.1E TO 16.8S 169.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 111930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 164.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 160.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 164.0E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111706Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. 96P LIES IN AN AREA OF
UNFAVORABLE (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING CONVECTION AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS BRIEFLY QUASI- STATIONARY BEFORE MAKING A LOOP OVER VANUATU AND MOVING ON A SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.


Edited by Inclement Weather (12/02/2019 08:46)
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#1490034 - 12/02/2019 09:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Simmo FNQ]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1017
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Originally Posted By: Simmo FNQ
Will this system still be classed as the same low that caused all the flooding? What about if GFS extended happens?
Can anyone remember when this low formed? Was it around the 17th January?


Hi Simmo FNQ, I believe (and am happy to be corrected if wrong) it formed around 23 Jan just north west of Weipa.

Refer NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone thread:
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1489788/1
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#1490069 - 12/02/2019 15:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5369
Loc: Diamond Valley
The JTWC have called it as a TC (on the US scale) and is now referred to as TC 15P. Here is the latest analysis which is quite detailed; however, it sums up the uncertainty in the forecast that is inherent in the Coral Sea:

Quote:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 164.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION, SURROUNDED BY FLARING CONVECTION AND DEVLEOPING BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF 112239Z ASCAT AMBIGUITIES AND
THE ANIMATED VISUAL IMAGERY, WHICH SHOW THE LLCC IN AN AREA BETWEEN FLARING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T2.0 (30 TO 40 KNOTS), SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SCATTEROMETER PASS, WHICH INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH SOME EMBEDDED 40 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS, STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 CELSIUS) SSTS.
THE AUTOMATED VWS ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES ARE DEPICTING UP TO 50 KNOTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE OVERALL SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THE SYSTEM, SO AN ALTERNATIVE HAND ANALYSIS IS BEING USED TO ESTIMATE THE VWS VALUES AT THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING RELATIVELY QUICKLY TOWARDS THE EAST BUT HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW MOVING EAST AT 10 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 15P WILL MOVE INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY, SLOWLY DRIFTING GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, A STR BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE EAST, ULTIMATELY DRIVING THE SYSTEM ONTO A SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. TC 15P WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS, AS MODERATE VWS IS OFFSET BY INCREASING OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 48, DECREASED OUTFLOW AND SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF TC 15P, AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH INVEST AREA 93P, CURRENTLY NORTH OF FIJI. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK OUTLINED ABOVE, BUT SHOW SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY ON THE TRACK SPEED AND TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTH, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE SLOWEST AND WESTERNMOST, WHILE GALWEM IS THE FASTEST AND EASTERNMOST OUTLIER. THE GFS REPRESENTS THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO, AND TAKES THE SYSTEM WEST THROUGH TAU 48, THEN RAPIDLY MAKES A NORTH LOOP AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL VANUATU BEFORE A SHARP TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM FUJIWARAS WITH INVEST 93P BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93P, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET.
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#1490088 - 12/02/2019 16:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18969
Loc: The Beach.
EC still persisting with an eventual track back towards SEQ. So much will likely change in the next 10 days however.
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#1490089 - 12/02/2019 17:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G not bringing the TC into BOM area of responsibility at all this week . Right out at 167e 23s at ACCG g T + 162 hrs.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

The range in model opinions certainly entertaining


Edited by crikey (12/02/2019 17:04)
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#1490091 - 12/02/2019 17:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3844
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Exact opposite to the forecasting models last week where AccessG was dreaming of a coasthugger & eventually EC was way closer with its forecasting. So EC now brings it on a broad track towards SEQ this morning, update coming soon I hope.
Waaay out there timewise though. Trust EC more than AccessG though even this far out.

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#1490116 - 12/02/2019 20:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18969
Loc: The Beach.
If only GFS's latest run could verify. The southern half of eastern Qld would get a drink.
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1490119 - 12/02/2019 20:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 937
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
And GFS-FV3 next gen model showing a significant change as well.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php...&r=au&dpdt=&mc=
Too far out though - at best speculation at present I think!
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#1490133 - 12/02/2019 21:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
LDRcycles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 98
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
Quite amusing to see a well known facebook page posting about this one with the line "we never jump at the first chance t=just to spread hype or fear", suuure they don't!

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#1490135 - 12/02/2019 21:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3844
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Wow, 960 over Mackay, naah, wont happen.
Had to put my glasses on LOL
I hope!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (12/02/2019 22:03)

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#1490148 - 13/02/2019 00:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 657
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
EC Is looking quite nice still and nice inland upper trough dragging in the the TC with Ridging to the South of it. Also SSTs are sitting nice and pretty about 26-27 sitting all the way to the East of Batemans Bay. Anyways that's my take.

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#1490160 - 13/02/2019 07:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 504
Loc: Elimbah 4516
That inland upper trough is whats going to take it to the graveyard in this morning's EC run. EC moves it faster south and gets captured more easily by the upper trough. GFS has it much further north, less likely to get fully captured and continues a more westward trajectory.
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#1490178 - 13/02/2019 09:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18969
Loc: The Beach.
This system got named TC Oma by Fiji overnight.

_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1490188 - 13/02/2019 09:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13340
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Thanks for the heads up CF!
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#1490199 - 13/02/2019 11:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5369
Loc: Diamond Valley
Most people know that the BoM has responsibility for naming and issuing warnings re TCs out to 160E. However, what isn't as well known is that the BoM has responsibility for forecasting and re-issuing warnings for the High Seas out to 170E (North Eastern High Seas). The latest High Seas forecast from Melbourne for this area is below, which includes a re-issuing of the gale warning for TC Oma from Nadi.

Quote:
North Eastern Area High Seas Forecast
IDY10230
SECURITE

Updated High Seas Forecast for North Eastern METAREA 10
NORTH EASTERN AREA: COAST AT 142E TO 0S142E TO 0S170E TO 25S170E TO COAST AT 25S

Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
For 24 hours commencing 2300 UTC 12 February 2019

Please be aware
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

Part 1 Warnings
Refer to latest warnings for details of the area affected

Nadi Storm Warning for Tropical Cyclone Oma 986hPa near 14.0S165.3E at
121800UTC.

Nadi Gale Warning 064.

Part 2 Situation at 1800 UTC
Refer to latest warnings for boundaries of affected areas and type of weather system.

Tropical Cyclone Oma 986hPa near 14.0S165.3E at 121800UTC. Forecast 14.8S165.4E at 140000UTC.

Monsoon Trough 17S145E to Tropical Cyclone Oma to 15S170E.

Part 3 Forecast
Refer to latest warnings.

North of Monsoon Trough outside warning area:
Westerly quarter winds 15/25 knots increasing to 20/30 knots east of 150E and tending clockwise within 360nm of Tropical Cyclone Oma. Winds increasing to 25/33 knots within 120nm of warning area. Moderate to rough seas grading to very rough within 120nm of warning area. Low to moderate swell.

South of Monsoon Trough outside warning area:
Southeasterly quarter winds 20/30 knots with moderate to rough seas becoming clockwise within 360nm of Tropical Cyclone Oma. Winds increasing to 25/33 knots within 120nm of warning area with very rough seas. Winds not exceeding 20 knots west of line 16S154E 25S158E with slight to moderate seas. Low to moderate swell.

Areas of heavy rain, showers and thunderstorms within 360nm of low and
remainder north of monsoon trough. Isolated showers remainder. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation.

WEATHER MELBOURNE
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