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#1489740 - 09/02/2019 11:42 Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
I might as well kick off discussion here on this system which could develop later in the forecasting period and turn back towards the coast. I have cut and pasted my last post from the general thread here.

There is a little window of opportunity at the moment for this system (Invest 96P) to organise itself with CIMMS showing relatively low VWS over it at the moment. This has moved the JTWC to issue the following analysis, where it has divided two distinct camps of possibilities:

Quote:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.9S 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER MOVED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST QUEENSLAND. RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. 96P IS IN A MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SSTS OFFSET BY HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SPLIT BETWEEN TWO SOLUTIONS. GFS AND ECMWF TRACK 96P EASTWARD BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. ON THE OTHER HAND, NAVGEM AND UKMET ARE TRACKING 96P EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING IT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
[/quote]
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#1489746 - 09/02/2019 12:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Access-G the ultimate tease has the monsoon low returning as a cyclone on WBB/SC's doorstep next Monday. GFS kills it in the SW Pacific. EC has it returning but stalling a fair way off the east Aus coast.

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#1489793 - 09/02/2019 17:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Big ridge weakness from 168hrs. All models show it (even the latest ACCESS-G). Don't like this one's chances of making it anywhere near the Queensland coast honestly.

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#1489916 - 10/02/2019 19:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G gradient wind pattern has the coral sea low merging with the other TS/low to its east, this week. If you watch the 7 day animation the animation show an amazing pattern of the the 2 lows doing a fujiwarra until they join. Then its a massive system in the coral sea and Nth Tasman.
ACCESS suggesting this INVEST will have TC status very soon. At the 12th feb at latest
The low tracks east as far as 167e 16s and then starts a SW track as a big mama on Friday the 15th Feb

Anyway watch the interesting animation here

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (10/02/2019 20:01)
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#1489923 - 10/02/2019 22:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: crikey]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1018
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Cool animation there Crikey. Will be watching with interest.

Info from JTWC re:92P
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 178.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15S 178.4W, APPROXIMATELY 286
NM NORTHEAST OF NAVI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 100414Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. 92P LIES
IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
FAVORABLE EASTWARD OUTFLOW IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (2830C) IN THIS PORTION OF THE CORAL SEA.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH A POSSIBLE RECURVE TO THE WEST AFTERWARDS DUE TO CYCLONE
INTERACTION WITH INVEST 96P WHICH WILL BE TO ITS NORTH.
MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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#1489927 - 11/02/2019 07:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 504
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Looks like a ridge tries to re-establish itself after the upper trough affects this system for a couple days in a weeks time.
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#1489928 - 11/02/2019 08:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
EC ensemble has it swinging back as a big one:



Take this one with a pinch of salt - way too far out to have any real bearing - but an indicator that things could get interesting somewhere on the coast in the next couple of weeks.

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#1489945 - 11/02/2019 12:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
What run is that from, Kev? None of the EPS ensemble members from 12z show this at all. Or, is this beyond the 240hr timeframe?

Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Looks like a ridge tries to re-establish itself after the upper trough affects this system for a couple days in a weeks time.


Yeah, looks as if it stays shallow enough to not get pulled away by the shortwave.

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#1489946 - 11/02/2019 12:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
That model says 24/2. Guess itís the 14 Day. Less reliable, but definitely shows some promise and something to look out for.
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#1489947 - 11/02/2019 12:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Stephen]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Stephen
That model says 24/2. Guess itís the 14 Day. Less reliable, but definitely shows some promise and something to look out for.


Gee, that's GFS extended territory. Think I'll pass on that until we get closer lol.

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#1489949 - 11/02/2019 13:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Jeez, look how close it still comes to being dragged away with the shortwave though (168 to 216 hrs). Knife-edge stuff right there:


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#1489954 - 11/02/2019 15:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Mega
What run is that from, Kev? None of the EPS ensemble members from 12z show this at all. Or, is this beyond the 240hr timeframe?

Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Looks like a ridge tries to re-establish itself after the upper trough affects this system for a couple days in a weeks time.


Yeah, looks as if it stays shallow enough to not get pulled away by the shortwave.

Itís the EC 14 day forecast. Obviously in la la land but worth posting to show the potential. EC can be good at this longer range stuff - not the detail but a heads up that something can be worth watching.

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#1489967 - 11/02/2019 17:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Himawaricast image from Jcsat2B at 0600UT.


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#1489971 - 11/02/2019 18:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
The latest EC is more interesting for its upper steering pattern (an amplifying short wave trough) that drags a small but rather intense TC SW towards SEQ (but well offshore at the end of its run). This brings it into alignment with several other models including Access-G, JMA, and ICON. A long way out where anything can happen. The Coral Sea is notorious for its difficulty in long term tropical forecasting, but it's noteworthy that there is consensus of sorts this far out.

The latest JTWC analysis has upgraded 96 Invest to medium. I must say it is looking far better organised this afternoon despite unfavourable shear.

Quote:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 156.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 160.3E, APPROXIMATELY 837 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102259Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 102301Z ASCAT PASS TO THE WEST DEMONSTRATES HIGHER, 30 KT STRAIGHTLINE WINDS TO THE NORTH AS PART OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. 96P LIES IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, WITH THE HIGHER WINDS WRAPPING AROUND TO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.




Edited by Inclement Weather (11/02/2019 18:09)
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#1489972 - 11/02/2019 18:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Starting to look more and more likely that the low that wreaked havoc across NQ last week will become the most dominant low again along an active monsoon trough in the Coral Sea. Only this time, she may even get a name.

Still a long way off though.

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#1489973 - 11/02/2019 18:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
GFS has it as a TC in a coupe of days time.
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#1489974 - 11/02/2019 18:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Learjet]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3911
Loc: Gordonvale
Originally Posted By: Learjet
Himawaricast image from Jcsat2B at 0600UT.


As a side note, the Gulf flooding in that pic is INSANE.
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#1489982 - 11/02/2019 19:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2187
Loc: Mareeba
Amazing image Learjet. How wide is the flooding at its widest point. Looks 70+km's
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#1489992 - 11/02/2019 21:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
GFS has it as a TC in a coupe of days time.


Yeah, same with EC. Biggest difference in those two models at that point in time is a second circulation which, as usual, GFS morphs into a baby TC which then initiates the Fujiwhara dance with the main low. EC/ICON just wash that second circulation out while the main low continues on its track west or southwest (much more likely scenario imo).

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#1489997 - 11/02/2019 21:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
GFS has it as a TC in a coupe of days time.


Yeah, same with EC. Biggest difference in those two models at that point in time is a second circulation which, as usual, GFS morphs into a baby TC which then initiates the Fujiwhara dance with the main low. EC/ICON just wash that second circulation out while the main low continues on its track west or southwest (much more likely scenario imo).

I have been watching that postulated dance of the lows on several models now for a few days. If such an interaction does eventuate or just remains a possibility then I would say this is a situation that the models will struggle with. More so than the usual limitations of model skill at different lead times. Something cooking beyond the coral sea and australian area of reporting appears to have been on the cards for a while but what that may be still seems quite uncertain.

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#1490002 - 11/02/2019 23:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Simmo FNQ]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Originally Posted By: Simmo FNQ
Amazing image Learjet. How wide is the flooding at its widest point. Looks 70+km's


Yes I believe it is something like that. If you were in the middle, it must look like being in the middle of the ocean with no land in sight.

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#1490007 - 11/02/2019 23:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 163
Loc: Moranbah
Plus you can see the progress of the floodwaters moving down towards Lake Eyre...and the outflow of floodwaters from the Burdekin...


Edited by FujiWha (11/02/2019 23:39)

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#1490015 - 12/02/2019 07:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
The latest EC is consistent with its previous run with the system getting a little closer and slows before approaching the SEQ coast, but still a way off. EC has it as a rather intense system for one so far south. It will be interesting to see what the shear profile will be next week as it's normally quite hostile down here. The upper steering winds will also be a factor.
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#1490021 - 12/02/2019 08:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Venuatu Met giving it TC status later tonight:


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#1490022 - 12/02/2019 08:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2187
Loc: Mareeba
Will this system still be classed as the same low that caused all the flooding? What about if GFS extended happens?
Can anyone remember when this low formed? Was it around the 17th January?


Edited by Simmo FNQ (12/02/2019 08:15)
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#1490029 - 12/02/2019 08:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Simmo FNQ]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Simmo FNQ
Will this system still be classed as the same low that caused all the flooding?


It is the same low, Simmo; however, as it has never been named, it has not been previously 'classed' as such. Still, it would have an incredible history if it were to come back as a TC. Hopefully, if it does, it will not be as destructive and as deadly as its previous incarnation - except as a 'fish storm'.

Meanwhile, the JTWC has upgraded the potential for formation to a TC (on the US scale) to high:

Quote:
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 163.1E TO 16.8S 169.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 111930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 164.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 160.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 164.0E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111706Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. 96P LIES IN AN AREA OF
UNFAVORABLE (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING CONVECTION AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS BRIEFLY QUASI- STATIONARY BEFORE MAKING A LOOP OVER VANUATU AND MOVING ON A SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.


Edited by Inclement Weather (12/02/2019 08:46)
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#1490034 - 12/02/2019 09:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Simmo FNQ]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1018
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Originally Posted By: Simmo FNQ
Will this system still be classed as the same low that caused all the flooding? What about if GFS extended happens?
Can anyone remember when this low formed? Was it around the 17th January?


Hi Simmo FNQ, I believe (and am happy to be corrected if wrong) it formed around 23 Jan just north west of Weipa.

Refer NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone thread:
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1489788/1
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#1490069 - 12/02/2019 15:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
The JTWC have called it as a TC (on the US scale) and is now referred to as TC 15P. Here is the latest analysis which is quite detailed; however, it sums up the uncertainty in the forecast that is inherent in the Coral Sea:

Quote:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 164.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION, SURROUNDED BY FLARING CONVECTION AND DEVLEOPING BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF 112239Z ASCAT AMBIGUITIES AND
THE ANIMATED VISUAL IMAGERY, WHICH SHOW THE LLCC IN AN AREA BETWEEN FLARING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T2.0 (30 TO 40 KNOTS), SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SCATTEROMETER PASS, WHICH INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH SOME EMBEDDED 40 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AREA, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS, STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30 CELSIUS) SSTS.
THE AUTOMATED VWS ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES ARE DEPICTING UP TO 50 KNOTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE OVERALL SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THE SYSTEM, SO AN ALTERNATIVE HAND ANALYSIS IS BEING USED TO ESTIMATE THE VWS VALUES AT THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING RELATIVELY QUICKLY TOWARDS THE EAST BUT HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS NOW MOVING EAST AT 10 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 15P WILL MOVE INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY, SLOWLY DRIFTING GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, A STR BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE EAST, ULTIMATELY DRIVING THE SYSTEM ONTO A SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. TC 15P WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS, AS MODERATE VWS IS OFFSET BY INCREASING OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 48, DECREASED OUTFLOW AND SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS WILL COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF TC 15P, AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH INVEST AREA 93P, CURRENTLY NORTH OF FIJI. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK OUTLINED ABOVE, BUT SHOW SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY ON THE TRACK SPEED AND TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTH, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE SLOWEST AND WESTERNMOST, WHILE GALWEM IS THE FASTEST AND EASTERNMOST OUTLIER. THE GFS REPRESENTS THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO, AND TAKES THE SYSTEM WEST THROUGH TAU 48, THEN RAPIDLY MAKES A NORTH LOOP AND DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL VANUATU BEFORE A SHARP TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM FUJIWARAS WITH INVEST 93P BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93P, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET.
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#1490088 - 12/02/2019 16:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
EC still persisting with an eventual track back towards SEQ. So much will likely change in the next 10 days however.
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#1490089 - 12/02/2019 17:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G not bringing the TC into BOM area of responsibility at all this week . Right out at 167e 23s at ACCG g T + 162 hrs.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

The range in model opinions certainly entertaining


Edited by crikey (12/02/2019 17:04)
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#1490091 - 12/02/2019 17:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Exact opposite to the forecasting models last week where AccessG was dreaming of a coasthugger & eventually EC was way closer with its forecasting. So EC now brings it on a broad track towards SEQ this morning, update coming soon I hope.
Waaay out there timewise though. Trust EC more than AccessG though even this far out.

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#1490116 - 12/02/2019 20:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
If only GFS's latest run could verify. The southern half of eastern Qld would get a drink.
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#1490119 - 12/02/2019 20:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
And GFS-FV3 next gen model showing a significant change as well.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php...&r=au&dpdt=&mc=
Too far out though - at best speculation at present I think!
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#1490133 - 12/02/2019 21:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
LDRcycles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 108
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
Quite amusing to see a well known facebook page posting about this one with the line "we never jump at the first chance t=just to spread hype or fear", suuure they don't!

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#1490135 - 12/02/2019 21:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Wow, 960 over Mackay, naah, wont happen.
Had to put my glasses on LOL
I hope!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (12/02/2019 22:03)

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#1490148 - 13/02/2019 00:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 739
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
EC Is looking quite nice still and nice inland upper trough dragging in the the TC with Ridging to the South of it. Also SSTs are sitting nice and pretty about 26-27 sitting all the way to the East of Batemans Bay. Anyways that's my take.

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#1490160 - 13/02/2019 07:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 504
Loc: Elimbah 4516
That inland upper trough is whats going to take it to the graveyard in this morning's EC run. EC moves it faster south and gets captured more easily by the upper trough. GFS has it much further north, less likely to get fully captured and continues a more westward trajectory.
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#1490178 - 13/02/2019 09:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
This system got named TC Oma by Fiji overnight.

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#1490188 - 13/02/2019 09:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13367
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Thanks for the heads up CF!
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#1490199 - 13/02/2019 11:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Most people know that the BoM has responsibility for naming and issuing warnings re TCs out to 160E. However, what isn't as well known is that the BoM has responsibility for forecasting and re-issuing warnings for the High Seas out to 170E (North Eastern High Seas). The latest High Seas forecast from Melbourne for this area is below, which includes a re-issuing of the gale warning for TC Oma from Nadi.

Quote:
North Eastern Area High Seas Forecast
IDY10230
SECURITE

Updated High Seas Forecast for North Eastern METAREA 10
NORTH EASTERN AREA: COAST AT 142E TO 0S142E TO 0S170E TO 25S170E TO COAST AT 25S

Issued by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
For 24 hours commencing 2300 UTC 12 February 2019

Please be aware
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

Part 1 Warnings
Refer to latest warnings for details of the area affected

Nadi Storm Warning for Tropical Cyclone Oma 986hPa near 14.0S165.3E at
121800UTC.

Nadi Gale Warning 064.

Part 2 Situation at 1800 UTC
Refer to latest warnings for boundaries of affected areas and type of weather system.

Tropical Cyclone Oma 986hPa near 14.0S165.3E at 121800UTC. Forecast 14.8S165.4E at 140000UTC.

Monsoon Trough 17S145E to Tropical Cyclone Oma to 15S170E.

Part 3 Forecast
Refer to latest warnings.

North of Monsoon Trough outside warning area:
Westerly quarter winds 15/25 knots increasing to 20/30 knots east of 150E and tending clockwise within 360nm of Tropical Cyclone Oma. Winds increasing to 25/33 knots within 120nm of warning area. Moderate to rough seas grading to very rough within 120nm of warning area. Low to moderate swell.

South of Monsoon Trough outside warning area:
Southeasterly quarter winds 20/30 knots with moderate to rough seas becoming clockwise within 360nm of Tropical Cyclone Oma. Winds increasing to 25/33 knots within 120nm of warning area with very rough seas. Winds not exceeding 20 knots west of line 16S154E 25S158E with slight to moderate seas. Low to moderate swell.

Areas of heavy rain, showers and thunderstorms within 360nm of low and
remainder north of monsoon trough. Isolated showers remainder. Visibility reducing below 2nm in precipitation.

WEATHER MELBOURNE
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#1490202 - 13/02/2019 11:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Oma from 20:30UT


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#1490205 - 13/02/2019 12:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
It doesn't look very pleasant out there, but Oma is holding its own amid the shear and sheer tenacity.

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#1490208 - 13/02/2019 12:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC ensemble members seem pretty hellbent on the graveyard scenario fortunately/unfortunately.

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#1490212 - 13/02/2019 12:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
SMD1125 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/11/2015
Posts: 26
Loc: Innes Park, Qld
Latest run of GFS FV3 has it on the Qld coast on 28 Feb....could go anywhere however given how far off it is...

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php...&r=au&dpdt=&mc=

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#1490214 - 13/02/2019 12:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
GFS FV3 has the system slow down since previous run. Gee I hope it makes it, make the place green again.

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#1490234 - 13/02/2019 15:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Its a pretty large circuation out there in the pacific, and models keep looking at spinning up multiple lows spinning around each other. It looks a little like a Monsoon Gyre which according to literature is a NW Pacific phenomena. Scale seems to be getting there, and these things tend to persist a good while, which the models seem to want to do.

Big WWB running through Pacific which is clearly associated with this cyclone. Often when a WWB winds down there will be a resurgence of trade winds that could push such a cyclone back towards the coast (classic example being Yasi), but at the moment there is no sign of such resurgence within the forecast period, and without such a resurgence I think making it this far back is unlikely.

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#1490247 - 13/02/2019 17:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1018
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 13 February 2019
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 16 February 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
At 12pm AEST Wednesday, tropical cyclone Oma, category 2, was located near Vanuatu, about 600km east of the Eastern Region. Tropical cyclone Oma is forecast to move southeast, further away from the Region, for about the next 48 hours. Later on Friday, the system may turn to the southwest.

Tropical cyclone Oma is not expected to enter the Eastern Region during the next three days. However, there is a risk that it may enter eastern parts of the Region from early next week.

Refer to the Fiji Meteorological Service web page for the latest details of tropical cyclona Oma: http://www.met.gov.fj

There are no other significant tropical lows in the region, and none are expected to develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday: Very Low
Friday: Very Low
Saturday: Very Low

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#1490249 - 13/02/2019 17:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Hailin]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4219
Loc: El Arish
Nearly Every time i see the satellite image pop up to the right i think, "it has got an eye already?" then i scroll up and it dissapears and think, oh it still just that speck of dust on the screen.... grin
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#1490259 - 13/02/2019 18:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Rhubarb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 782
Loc: West End, Townsville, QLD
92P hasn't disappeared completely, it's going to be sucked into TC Oma ....... doesn't look as if it will come onto the east coast though so far ....

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.7S 178.1W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4S 178.1E, APPROXIMATELY
400 NM SOUTH OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
DIMINISHING CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. A 122039Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS
SHOWS TROUGHING EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE LLC AND A LARGE SWATH OF 25
KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN AN OVERALL
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE
(15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ISOTHERM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE BEING
ABSORBED INTO 15P (OMA) IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS A LOW.
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Rhubarb

Rainfall
2019: 26/01 - 06/02 = 1,516 mm - Far Out!!!!!!!!!!!
2018 LOTS!!
2017: 823.5 mm
2016: 1,660 mm
2015: 430.5 mm

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#1490266 - 13/02/2019 19:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Model rundown:

ACCESS-G - southwards, hits New Cal then swings back towards the NW while washing out.
CMC - just misses New Cal then off to the graveyard
GFS- southwards, hits west New Cal then swings back towards the NW while washing out.
ICON - Graveyeard.
ECMWF - Graveyard.
UKMET - Only goes out to 144 hours. Hits west New Cal and continues SSW towards ridge weakness so probably graveyard after that.
FV3 - Not out yet. Probably not missing much as the model is pure garbage for this part of the world.
NAVGEM - How is this model still in operation?

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#1490268 - 13/02/2019 19:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Mega
Model rundown:


FV3 - Not out yet. Probably not missing much as the model is pure garbage for this part of the world.


Mega, FV3, is the same as GFS para here at weatheronline.
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#1490270 - 13/02/2019 19:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Thanks IW. I'll believe that scenario when I see it.

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#1490284 - 13/02/2019 21:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
One alteration - GFS 06z now graveyard.

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#1490293 - 13/02/2019 22:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Consensus of the models does appear quite strong for the graveyard off to the pole. All of that though is beyond +120hrs (day 5 from now), so in my mind there can be no firm conclusions for that far ahead. A lot of complex influences with only the slightest change of some potentially changing timing and outcomes.
Ah the marvelous fascination of forecast uncertainty compounding over longer lead time.
Anyway speaking of forecast uncertainty the next Generation GFS, the FV3 model does not appear to providing much hope of significant improvement in tropical storm, tropical cyclone systems for our region of the southern hemisphere. If FV3 does proceed to operational status and replace GFS in the near future as planned, I am not confident that will be good for us interested in tropical severe weather events.

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#1490301 - 13/02/2019 23:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Bush fires, dust storm, flooded lakes, cyclone Oma... Have I missed anything? Himawaricast from 0700UT.


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#1490353 - 14/02/2019 13:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
CuNimJim Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/12/2005
Posts: 476
Loc: Whitfield, Cairns
Snow in Tassie LJ!
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2017 - 1,809mm
2018 - 3,151mm
MTD: - 265.0mm (Mar)
YTD: - 1,442mm

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#1490371 - 14/02/2019 16:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Last few GFS runs have been edging Oma closer and closer.

00Z run ups the anti and landfalls on SE QLD. Pretty big tides on the lead into so if its as strong as were seeing on the GFS forecasts some major impacts are likely.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1490392 - 14/02/2019 17:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Yes, Locke, other models are heading in the same direction albeit stop short of a coastal crossing. I'm just keeping an eye on the unfolding EC run. The latest JTWC analysis summed it up with a sub-tropical ridge steering influence turning Oma SW with a series of short wave troughs eventually eroding the ridge and sending it polewards. It really depends on the strength and timing of these upper systems as to where Oma's eventual path may end up. At the end of the day, it's a big ask for a system to maintain such intensity in the face of what normally is increasing shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures in this part of the world. Still, I remember Hamish being quite intense about ten years ago and tearing south through hostile shear. An interesting week ahead watching the fate of Oma.

Edit: as I suspected, EC has it diving south well before the coast.


Edited by Inclement Weather (14/02/2019 17:49)
Edit Reason: EC update
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#1490400 - 14/02/2019 18:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1018
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 14 February 2019
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 17 February 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
At 2pm AEST Thursday, tropical cyclone Oma, category 2, was located near Vanuatu, about 600km east of the Eastern Region. Tropical cyclone Oma has adopted a more southerly track with an expectation it will shift further towards the southwest over the next three days. Refer to the Fiji Meteorological Service web page for the latest details of tropical cyclona Oma: http://www.met.gov.fj

Although Oma is forecast to move southwest, it is not expected to enter the Eastern Region over the three days. However, the risk remains that it will enter early next week.

There are no other significant tropical lows in the region, and none are expected to develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday: Very Low
Saturday: Very Low
Sunday: Very Low

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#1490418 - 14/02/2019 19:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3633
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Yes, Locke, other models are heading in the same direction albeit stop short of a coastal crossing. I'm just keeping an eye on the unfolding EC run. The latest JTWC analysis summed it up with a sub-tropical ridge steering influence turning Oma SW with a series of short wave troughs eventually eroding the ridge and sending it polewards. It really depends on the strength and timing of these upper systems as to where Oma's eventual path may end up. At the end of the day, it's a big ask for a system to maintain such intensity in the face of what normally is increasing shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures in this part of the world. Still, I remember Hamish being quite intense about ten years ago and tearing south through hostile shear. An interesting week ahead watching the fate of Oma.

Edit: as I suspected, EC has it diving south well before the coast.
Spot on IW, Hamish ploughed through it, it seemed to create its own conditions for it to survive.

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#1490419 - 14/02/2019 19:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Tempest]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Tempest
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Yes, Locke, other models are heading in the same direction albeit stop short of a coastal crossing. I'm just keeping an eye on the unfolding EC run. The latest JTWC analysis summed it up with a sub-tropical ridge steering influence turning Oma SW with a series of short wave troughs eventually eroding the ridge and sending it polewards. It really depends on the strength and timing of these upper systems as to where Oma's eventual path may end up. At the end of the day, it's a big ask for a system to maintain such intensity in the face of what normally is increasing shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures in this part of the world. Still, I remember Hamish being quite intense about ten years ago and tearing south through hostile shear. An interesting week ahead watching the fate of Oma.

Edit: as I suspected, EC has it diving south well before the coast.
Spot on IW, Hamish ploughed through it, it seemed to create its own conditions for it to survive.


There's some conjecture about that. A while back one of our experienced posters talked about a microscale pattern that developed allowing Hamish to survive rather than Hamish creating its own conditions.

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#1490437 - 14/02/2019 23:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
I'll take a south east run over what GFS is offering on its latest . A little too close to home but thankfully still a long way off. Wait until a certain social media page gets a hold of that one.

_________________________


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#1490438 - 14/02/2019 23:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Still think this will end up in the graveyard. Both GFS are now starting to trend further east.

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#1490439 - 14/02/2019 23:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
I'm more then happy to give this one to the se of qld as an weak tc cat 1 I mean.

That what I think any way.

That big if make that far.


Edited by Mathew (15/02/2019 00:04)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

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#1490440 - 15/02/2019 00:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6861
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
There is no way in the world it even get that high up.

These tc.

It's is very Interesting to know any way.


Edited by Mathew (15/02/2019 00:30)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 01/01/19 903.0 mm -
feb-2019 month 883.5 mm Mar 173.4 mm April 7.8 mm May 29.1 mm> June 1.8 mm
(07 06-19_ 03:47 pm) Yr 1297 mm / Wy rain 1.2mm month 1.2 mm/ 0.0 mm

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#1490446 - 15/02/2019 06:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
There is now general consensus among the major models (EC & GFS) that after a significant SW movement, it will dip southwards well before it reaches the coast. Only GFS para and ICON are insisting on nearing the coast.
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#1490452 - 15/02/2019 08:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
There is now general consensus among the major models (EC & GFS) that after a significant SW movement, it will dip southwards well before it reaches the coast. Only GFS para and ICON are insisting on nearing the coast.


Not looking good.

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#1490464 - 15/02/2019 10:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
TC Oma from 9:00am this morning. Himawaricast image from Jcsat2B


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#1490513 - 15/02/2019 17:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
SMD1125 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/11/2015
Posts: 26
Loc: Innes Park, Qld
What do others think of the GFS-FV3? For a couple of days its been quite consistent with Oma running either just offshore, or onshore from Fraser Is to northern NSW with a pressure around 963hpa


Edited by SMD1125 (15/02/2019 18:03)

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#1490520 - 15/02/2019 18:06 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I will have huge amounts of egg of my face if (huge huge huge if) it ends up being right.

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#1490521 - 15/02/2019 18:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: SMD1125]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
SMD, we've been talking up a storm about Oma on the SE QLD/ NE NSW board. Some really good technical info and comments there worth checking out.

GFS FV3 has been persistent with QLD landfall, but it has been significantly trending further eastward. It was confident of Rockhampton landfall not long ago but now it's crossing the Gold Coast.

Interestingly EC has backflipped big time and is now going for a GC crossing as well.

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#1490523 - 15/02/2019 18:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
All she needs to do is hang north to miss that shortwave. Bloody hell.

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#1490524 - 15/02/2019 18:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mega
All she needs to do is hang north to miss that shortwave. Bloody hell.


Imagine if SAM hadn't gone negative.

Here's hoping the trough is the usual rubbish we've had all summer and stays well south and weak.

It's going to be a close call, probably the best chance we've had in decades to have a severe TC impact in this part of the world.

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#1490527 - 15/02/2019 18:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G has a southerly transition down the 163 e longitude line commencing Monday the 18th feb. The core does not enter BOM's region of responsibility in the next 6-7 days .
A quick look at ACC g 10 day forecast doesn't bring him any closer.
East coast surface ridging in place Saturday sunday and Monday .
Tuesday surface ridging contracts and disappears

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

Longer term 10 day ACC G outlook shows strong surface ridging coming in to protect the coast
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/


Edited by crikey (15/02/2019 18:18)
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#1490528 - 15/02/2019 18:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Well latest EC throws (likely a temporary) spanner in the works

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#1490529 - 15/02/2019 18:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
https://imgur.com/VhCnbTQ
Longwave tasman trough moves over the se heights drop weakens the ridge and captures the storm. Then off to oblivion thinks EC.

https://imgur.com/VhCnbTQ

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#1490530 - 15/02/2019 18:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: vorts]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: vorts
https://imgur.com/VhCnbTQ
Longwave tasman trough moves over the se heights drop weakens the ridge and captures the storm. Then off to oblivion thinks EC.

https://imgur.com/VhCnbTQ


That's this morning's run, but definitely still the more likely scenario.

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#1490531 - 15/02/2019 18:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: vorts]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
The big difference between the previous EC run and the latest is that Oma stays further north a lot longer and a bit further westward. That means it avoids being captured by the trough and poleward movement begins further west allowing it to strike SEQ. That is actually fairly similar to GFS FV3 which exaggerates this even further.

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#1490537 - 15/02/2019 19:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: vorts
https://imgur.com/VhCnbTQ
Longwave tasman trough moves over the se heights drop weakens the ridge and captures the storm. Then off to oblivion thinks EC.

https://imgur.com/VhCnbTQ


That's this morning's run, but definitely still the more likely scenario.


Agreed and so also thinks the best model (00zEPS).
https://imgur.com/cL4a2Zz
very powerfull trough.


https://imgur.com/wXlgrqp
Oma sheared apart by the mid latitude wsly's.

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#1490540 - 15/02/2019 19:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Edging closer though:


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#1490541 - 15/02/2019 19:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Latest EC is interesting.
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#1490544 - 15/02/2019 19:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 739
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Looks like some solid divergence on the consensus of EC. Probably due to the uncertainty of the ridge as Each day it is looking stronger. Along with the predicted front to come in weaker and earlier, all of it benefiting us. I would love for these elevated SSTS to come into use.

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#1490546 - 15/02/2019 20:06 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
HWRF model going for gradual strengthening to day 4 from now then beginning to weakening, but alas it is only a five day model frown
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt...ectStorm=OMA15P

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#1490548 - 15/02/2019 20:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
The big difference between the previous EC run and the latest is that Oma stays further north a lot longer and a bit further westward. That means it avoids being captured by the trough and poleward movement begins further west allowing it to strike SEQ. That is actually fairly similar to GFS FV3 which exaggerates this even further.


Indeed the FV3 00z strikes, but does anyone know what the bias is with that model ie right or left. Shugzz i don't know atm.
https://imgur.com/gdkdCoR
FV3


00z GFS was OTS
https://imgur.com/7KxGW5g


GFS 00z 500 operational... that trough.
https://imgur.com/W8xDZd2


GFS 00z ens
https://imgur.com/qlf9ekj

This far out watching ens tends is the way to go.

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#1490549 - 15/02/2019 20:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: vorts]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: vorts

This far out watching ens tends is the way to go.

Agree with that, it is still so far away!

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#1490551 - 15/02/2019 20:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Noctilucent Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 25/01/2019
Posts: 2
Loc: Tabulam NSW
Having only a little knowledge of how weather works picked up from a few years lurking and reading on this forum but a fair working knowledge of Murphy's Law, I got a feeling about this one. Since there has been so little rain in our area that both the Clarence and The Rocky(Timbarra) River have stopped flowing past our house and now that we have survived a very ferocious fire that is still effecting many in the region it would seem that flood is the next logical event on the list. It would be interesting to say the least, to see how different a heavy rain event plays out when there is so little vegetation on the ground .

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#1490555 - 15/02/2019 21:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Noctilucent]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
06z GFS is still miles into the graveyard, probably the furthest east I've seen so far.

06z GFS FV3 now has Oma offshore to the east, with only the outer bands making landfall on SEQ. This is the first time it has put Oma offshore. Bizarrely it has Oma pushing south directly into a 1020-1030 hpa High and stalling for a few days off SEQ before finally moving south as the High weakens and shifts east. Really? Why not moving west along the ridge? Don't know what it's on about with this run.

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#1490557 - 15/02/2019 22:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I reckon EC will shift east again tomorrow morning. Just a hunch.

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#1490558 - 15/02/2019 22:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
SMD1125 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/11/2015
Posts: 26
Loc: Innes Park, Qld
Great animation Mega.......latest EC run has it moving back onto the coast as well. Shall be an interesting few days

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#1490559 - 15/02/2019 22:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mega
I reckon EC will shift east again tomorrow morning. Just a hunch.


Agreed. If the cyclone isn't going to be sent west by the ridge anymore and will just butt up against the high pressure system then it's pretty much game over. Won't matter about any troughing.

EDIT: Well now Access-G has the cyclone making landfall around Fraser Island as a washed-out but still rain-heavy tropical low.

Jees the models really don't know do they. I think I might take a break from this system for a little while.


Edited by Nature's Fury (15/02/2019 22:39)

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#1490561 - 16/02/2019 06:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
mammatus meestrus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 80
Loc: lennox head
JTWC doesn't seem to be updating ....anyone else experiencing this?

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#1490562 - 16/02/2019 06:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Mega
I reckon EC will shift east again tomorrow morning. Just a hunch.

Nope. Was thinking the same thing to but....actually feel like Aus has sufffered enough this summer and happy for this one to head away. Would be devastating for me region if it came off as EC is predicting.

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#1490564 - 16/02/2019 07:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 504
Loc: Elimbah 4516
A couple days ago EC was the furtherest one to have TC Oma to the east while all the others were approaching/crossing the coast and now this morning it's the total opposite. Still the majority 90% of the ensemble tracks still has it going to the graveyard.

JTWC hasn't updated for a couple days.
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#1490565 - 16/02/2019 07:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
isn't that what TC Wanda was in 1974??? a washed out tropical low?? ...

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Mega
I reckon EC will shift east again tomorrow morning. Just a hunch.


Agreed. If the cyclone isn't going to be sent west by the ridge anymore and will just butt up against the high pressure system then it's pretty much game over. Won't matter about any troughing.

EDIT: Well now Access-G has the cyclone making landfall around Fraser Island as a washed-out but still rain-heavy tropical low.

Jees the models really don't know do they. I think I might take a break from this system for a little while.
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#1490567 - 16/02/2019 08:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
It's still a worry that both EC and UKMET have Oma approaching this part of the world. There seems to be a disagreement over the timing and strength of the upper systems that will steer it either way with other models. Still, if it did go to the 'graveyard" it will make for a very strong extra-tropical transition on its way to NZ. Either way, Oma could have consequences.
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#1490571 - 16/02/2019 08:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: KevD]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: KevD
Originally Posted By: Mega
I reckon EC will shift east again tomorrow morning. Just a hunch.

Nope. Was thinking the same thing to but....actually feel like Aus has sufffered enough this summer and happy for this one to head away. Would be devastating for me region if it came off as EC is predicting.


Two runs in a row now. Still a long way off so plenty can change but I too would be happy to wave this one east.
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#1490581 - 16/02/2019 09:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
mammatus meestrus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 80
Loc: lennox head
JTWC updated.

track map looks threatening.

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#1490582 - 16/02/2019 09:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
The 500hpa EC chart has this other mid or upper low to the east of Oma at about 168hrs where can't see it on any other models but a mid level ridge just off the east coast. Seems to be a few competing steering influences.

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#1490583 - 16/02/2019 10:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Steve O]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1018
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
From JTWC: REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 164.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RELATIVELY RAGGED SYSTEM, WITH WEAK
FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SEQUENCE OF HIGH RESOLUTION 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGES BETWEEN 151548Z AND 151815Z, EACH DEPICTING A LOWER-LEVEL
EYE FEATURE SLIGHTLY DECOUPLED FROM A WEAK CYCLONIC SIGNATURE AT THE
UPPER-LEVELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER BASED ON A 151542Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 15P LIES IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE AREA, WITH MODERATE VWS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND WARM (29
CELSIUS) SSTS. THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND HAS STOPPED, DUE TO
SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS DUE TO THE
SLOW FORWARD MOTION, AND THE OFFSETTING OF THE OUTFLOW BY VWS. TC
15P IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 15P WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT REMAINS IN A WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. DURING THIS PERIOD, INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
STAGNANT AS COOLER UPWELLED WATERS AND VWS CONTINUE TO OFFSET ROBUST
OUTFLOW. BEYOND TAU 36, A STR BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST AND
RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD LEADING TC 15P TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWEST AND OVER WARMER WATERS, VWS ALSO
WEAKENS, ALLOWING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION PEAKING AT 90 KNOTS AT
TAU 96. THEREAFTER EXPECT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST AS VWS INCREASES, SSTS APPROACH 27 CELSIUS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT ALL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREEING ON
THE OVERALL SLOW SPEED THROUGH TAU 36 AND SUBSEQUENT ACCELERATION
SOUTHWEST AFTER THIS POINT. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WIDENS IN THE
LATER TAUS HOWEVER, WITH A 320 NM SPREAD BETWEEN OUTLIERS NAVGEM AND
GFS AT TAU 120. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK AND CLOSE THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD IN LATER TAUS THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND
162100Z.//
NNNN

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#1490586 - 16/02/2019 11:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Most EC ensemble members either send it to the graveyard or stall it well off the coast as Squeak said. Still not convinced by the operational run honestly.

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#1490587 - 16/02/2019 11:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
EC is the such an outlier at the moment. Every other model has graveyard and way to the east. Not going to happen. Looks like this one will be a NZ event.

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#1490599 - 16/02/2019 13:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Latest animated sat images are seeing the development of an eye, which means it's getting up to cat 3 status.
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#1490602 - 16/02/2019 14:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mishka Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 59
Loc: Emerald, Victoria - 300m asl
OK, So I'm far from an expert in any of this stuff and pretty much stick with Windy.com for whatever I need. That site is telling me there is a direct hit from OMA coming for the Gold Coast next Monday morning (25-Feb), which is exactly when I arrive for holiday. You are all saying this is heading into the Tasman 'graveyard'. Why is Windy incorrect?
https://www.windy.com/?2019-02-25-00,-27.528,152.869,7

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#1490603 - 16/02/2019 14:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
SMD1125 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/11/2015
Posts: 26
Loc: Innes Park, Qld
Latest JTWC advice (17) shows Oma still moving WSW the last 6hrs...

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#1490605 - 16/02/2019 14:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Yes it's trying to form an eye. 644nm image at 0300UT.



Edited by Learjet (16/02/2019 14:52)

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#1490607 - 16/02/2019 15:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Lets hope it keeps moving WSW.

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#1490608 - 16/02/2019 15:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mishka]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Mishka
OK, So I'm far from an expert in any of this stuff and pretty much stick with Windy.com for whatever I need. That site is telling me there is a direct hit from OMA coming for the Gold Coast next Monday morning (25-Feb), which is exactly when I arrive for holiday. You are all saying this is heading into the Tasman 'graveyard'. Why is Windy incorrect?
https://www.windy.com/?2019-02-25-00,-27.528,152.869,7

Youíll be looking at EC on windy. Other models show a different outcome right now.

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#1490609 - 16/02/2019 16:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mishka Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 59
Loc: Emerald, Victoria - 300m asl
Thanks Ken! I Just noted the EC/GFS button on Windy. An amazing model difference with one click - the difference between a great holiday and a total disaster. Gooooo GFS.

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#1490611 - 16/02/2019 16:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea and its usually GFS doing the disaster scenario.. should be interesting 00z EC.

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#1490612 - 16/02/2019 16:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
BrisWeatherNerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 943
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Everton ...
I don't want to have anything to do with this one but I do think the ECMWF modelling is more accurate - I see a crossing between Fraser Coast and Gold Coast on the cards before the system crosses back out to sea around Coffs region. Happy for it to be south of me.
_________________________
Sick of waiting for rain in Townsville: moved to Brisbane. And then it rains in Townsville. Oh the sweet irony.



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#1490613 - 16/02/2019 16:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 739
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
The thing is that a control run of EC which is displayed on numerous weather sites can be quite deceiving when it comes to tropical systems as it's one the dozens of possibilities that are being churned out by the EC ensemble members. Fact is that most of the models have this system being thrown at New Zealand.

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#1490614 - 16/02/2019 16:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: BrisWeatherNerd]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Originally Posted By: BrisWeatherNerd
I don't want to have anything to do with this one but I do think the ECMWF modelling is more accurate - I see a crossing between Fraser Coast and Gold Coast on the cards before the system crosses back out to sea around Coffs region. Happy for it to be south of me.


Nice name change, wouldn't that be something.

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#1490617 - 16/02/2019 17:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Honestly very little change in EC up to 120hrs...maybe slightly further east but still heading WSW towards the coast. Next few frames will determine if the trough full captures it or not. The thing with EC though is it has a second upper trough cutting off from the shortwave

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#1490619 - 16/02/2019 17:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
A bit further SE up to 144 hrs...better chance of a full capture but I still doubt it. Big ridge building in under it. Also of note, shortwave extension (which breaks off from main shortwave and pushes NW) looks to be further east as well.

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#1490620 - 16/02/2019 17:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
A bit more of a southerly movement by 144hrs compared to previous run for EC. Could be the start of it getting caught by the shortwave.
_________________________
S.Kunze

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#1490622 - 16/02/2019 17:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
And there she goes, off down to the graveyard on the latest EC too. frown
_________________________
S.Kunze

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#1490623 - 16/02/2019 17:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
LonnyDave Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 08/05/2018
Posts: 47
Even if it doesn't make landfall what effect will the swell have on Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast beaches?

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#1490624 - 16/02/2019 17:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: LonnyDave]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: LonnyDave
Even if it doesn't make landfall what effect will the swell have on Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast beaches?


BIG.

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#1490625 - 16/02/2019 17:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
And now she's captured. And we're done here....unless the main shortwave over NZ relaxes and the shortwave extension builds NW across inland NSW/QLD like previous runs (which it still hasn't).

Edit: GONE.

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#1490626 - 16/02/2019 17:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
The only model that gets anywhere near us still is NAVGEM. I'll see soon if UKMET has joined EC.

Edit:

UKMET still has it heading our way:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR SOUTH PACIFIC AND

SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEANS

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.02.2019


TROPICAL CYCLONE OMA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6S 164.2E


VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 16.02.2019 15.6S 164.2E STRONG

12UTC 16.02.2019 15.2S 163.6E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.02.2019 15.3S 163.6E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.02.2019 16.2S 163.9E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.02.2019 17.2S 163.1E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.02.2019 18.3S 162.7E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.02.2019 19.3S 161.9E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.02.2019 19.9S 161.3E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.02.2019 20.7S 160.6E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.02.2019 21.5S 159.7E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.02.2019 22.5S 158.4E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 21.02.2019 23.6S 157.7E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.02.2019 25.2S 157.5E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

The last coordinates put it about 400km due east of Fraser Island.


Edited by Inclement Weather (16/02/2019 17:53)
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#1490627 - 16/02/2019 17:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Will still a few interesting days coming up. Wasnít really expecting what EC was showing the last 2 runs, so could revert back depending what happens with the competing steering influencers. Gonna be some good swells for sure though and some beach erosion.
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#1490629 - 16/02/2019 17:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Even at 168hrs theres going to still be some uncertainty.

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#1490630 - 16/02/2019 17:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
And then the huge high pressure system/ridge helps in steering It back north again according to EC. Wonít be much fuel left for it if it goes over waters itís already travelled over. This is one persistent low pressure system
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S.Kunze

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#1490631 - 16/02/2019 18:06 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
The BoM in its latest forecast for coastal areas along SEQ is already factoring in an increase in wind and shower activity by the end of next week. There will definitely be a significant increase in the swell with long period swells regardless of how close Oma gets.
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#1490632 - 16/02/2019 18:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC: Old run vs new run. Think of the lighter shaded areas of the mid-upper-level flow which stronger TCs tend to take. Yesterday's run showed a separate trough breaking off from the main shortwave over NZ with a ridge building in between both troughs (darker/standard orange):



Today's run shows one big shortwave with no break-off over NSW/QLD, also meaning no mid-level ridge to anchor it in place. Even if the TC was a little closer to the coast this run, it would still head SE.

Keep in mind, this is just one run but I still think it's important to look at the dynamics around what's changed from run to run.

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#1490635 - 16/02/2019 18:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Thanks Mega, that's a great explanation with handy comparative graphics to demonstrate.
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#1490638 - 16/02/2019 18:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Thanks IW!

EC ensembles are out and if anything add to the confusion. A real mixed bag with some going for the graveyard solution, some washing it out (like op run) and some still crossing. Big spread up till 144-168 hrs let alone the full 240:




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#1490641 - 16/02/2019 19:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Nice! Glad to see the ensembles looking so varied. Not over until itís over grin
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#1490642 - 16/02/2019 19:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Taylsy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2007
Posts: 1249
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
By the looks of that Mega, if anything more members have gone for a coastal crossing than the same corresponding run last night. Looks almost 50:50 to me, and that sums up the uncertainty overall. All depends on timing and forward speed of Oma, the shortwave trough and the massive ridge building behind the SWT.
_________________________
Between the bush and the beach.
2019 YTD: 221 mm; 2018: 1,078 mm; 2017: 1,495 mm; 2016: 812 mm; 2015: 1,932 mm; 2014: 943 mm; 2013: 1,501 mm; 2012 1,682 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.

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#1490643 - 16/02/2019 19:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2871
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
http://wxmaps.org/fcst.php

Click Select a Domain: Australia

Click 200mb Streamlines
and Isotachs

The jet stream is pushing cyclone away and very hard say if High pressure stalling it and turn around to North West.



Edited by chasers addict (16/02/2019 19:34)

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#1490644 - 16/02/2019 19:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Taylsy]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Taylsy
By the looks of that Mega, if anything more members have gone for a coastal crossing than the same corresponding run last night. Looks almost 50:50 to me, and that sums up the uncertainty overall. All depends on timing and forward speed of Oma, the shortwave trough and the massive ridge building behind the SWT.


I think there's still a fair few more of them that keep it well off the coast rather than making landfall though. Someone who has access to a better chart showing each ensemble member might be able to clarify that. I really don't like that shortwave. It's had all bloody summer to rear its head and it decides to do it NOW? Sheesh. What are the odds?

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#1490645 - 16/02/2019 19:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mega
there's still a fair few more of them that keep it well off the coast rather than making landfall though.

Those charts also show that the few landfall scenarios in the mix appear to be a much weaker weather system than the ensemble members out to sea.

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#1490646 - 16/02/2019 20:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Taylsy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2007
Posts: 1249
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 164.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 15P HAS BECOME GENERALLY MORE ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH FLARING CONVECTION BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED INTO SYMMETRICAL BANDS. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS
OBSCURED BY HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 160455Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTS A BROAD LLCC, WHICH HAS BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER-LEVELS SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 70 KNOTS, AND IS ASSESSED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A KNES CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T4.5 (77 KNOTS), A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS), AN AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS AND A SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
POINT SOURCE THAT WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST, NOW SETTLING IN NEARLY
DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. THIS HAS HAD THE EFFECT OF REDUCING
THE VWS, WHILE ALSO IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW, COMBINING TO EFFECT
THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, THESE POSITIVE FACTORS ARE BEING
OFFSET BY THE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER FORWARD TRANSLATION, WHICH IS
ALLOWING FOR THE UPWELLING OF MUCH COOLER WATERS, RESULTING IN A
STEADY INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. THE CURRENT MOTION IS A VERY SLOW TWO
KNOTS, OR QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT IN A COL REGION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
WEAK STEERING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WHILE MAINTAINING INTENSITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
OFFSETTING ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. BEYOND TAU 24, A DEVELOPING
STR TO THE EAST WILL SERVE TO EJECT TC 15P ONTO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK AND ALLOWING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO WARMER
WATERS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 90 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AS IT
BEGINS TO TAP INTO A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH.
THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS AND VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TAU 36, WITH ALL
CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOWING THE SLOW INITIAL MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN
ACCELERATION TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 24. THERE IS HOWEVER A
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK FORECASTS AFTER TAU 48, WITH THE
NAVGEM MODEL TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST BY TAU 120, AND THE GFS
INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SYSTEM AND TURNING TC 15P
SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE
TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS
TRACK. OVERALL DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAUS, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 30 FEET.
_________________________
Between the bush and the beach.
2019 YTD: 221 mm; 2018: 1,078 mm; 2017: 1,495 mm; 2016: 812 mm; 2015: 1,932 mm; 2014: 943 mm; 2013: 1,501 mm; 2012 1,682 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.

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#1490648 - 16/02/2019 21:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
The last five days of animated estimates of total precipitable water give a good impression of Oma's development.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mt...hrs&anim=html5#

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#1490649 - 16/02/2019 21:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Even though the GFS 06Z run is following a similar trajectory to its previous run, it is doing so a lot slower and is a little further west and north at each time frame in the run compared to the 00Z run. Might be able to still miss the SWT if it keeps with this slowing trend in coming runs. Thereís still time and hope yet
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#1490671 - 17/02/2019 10:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Oma with a rough eye from 8am EST this morning. Himawaricast image from Jcsat2B.


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#1490673 - 17/02/2019 11:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Taylsy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2007
Posts: 1249
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
Oma is now a Cat 3 storm.
_________________________
Between the bush and the beach.
2019 YTD: 221 mm; 2018: 1,078 mm; 2017: 1,495 mm; 2016: 812 mm; 2015: 1,932 mm; 2014: 943 mm; 2013: 1,501 mm; 2012 1,682 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.

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#1490674 - 17/02/2019 11:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
She is wobbling all over the place at 2kts, wanna get a move on, water temp be cooling off.

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#1490675 - 17/02/2019 11:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
GFS update still has a graveyard run. EC wants to take her back up to Townsville
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#1490676 - 17/02/2019 11:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2871
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very strange on NEWS use Windy charts cyclone going to turns round to NW towards Townsville and Weatherzone GFS running off to NewZealand.

News broadcast in Australia should be using Australian BOM

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#1490677 - 17/02/2019 11:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Very strange on NEWS use Windy charts cyclone going to turns round to NW towards Townsville and Weatherzone GFS running off to NewZealand.

News broadcast in Australia should be using Australian BOM



I think you may be looking at EC on Windy mate.
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#1490678 - 17/02/2019 11:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2871
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...


Edited by chasers addict (17/02/2019 11:55)

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#1490684 - 17/02/2019 12:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: chasers addict]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 535
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: chasers addict

News using different model not wrong one, there are many different models run by organisations in different countries. Models are weather simulators run on computers and each one uses different methods hence different outcomes. They are forecasts only and can change with each new run, use them as a guide only.


Edited by Red Watch (17/02/2019 13:01)

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#1490687 - 17/02/2019 13:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Red Watch]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 3036
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: chasers addict

News using different model not wrong one, there are many different models run by organisations in different countries. Models are weather simulators run on computers and each one uses different methods hence different outcomes. They are forecasts only and can change with each new run, use them as a guide only.

I used to look in at Tropical Tidbits, but when confronted with something like this I've stopped thinking about the track unless it starts to head my way.
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1nLj0Xb1FFg7aIvMgqs10P7ky1-nEXmBm

You realise it could do absolutely anything. This is *not* one of the worst I've seen. So I just lurk on this thread...and hope to absorb a little bit more knowledge.


Edited by cold@28 (17/02/2019 13:12)

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#1490690 - 17/02/2019 13:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Dipole Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2013
Posts: 362
Loc: Hervey Bay 48m,Tuross Head
I cannot see any movement in Oma, looking at the eye in the Himawari loop.

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#1490699 - 17/02/2019 15:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Oma slowly on the move 4kts West, 980hpa, cat2, from latest Fiji met office warning. Lost a bit of steam.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (17/02/2019 15:36)

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#1490700 - 17/02/2019 15:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Just noticed NBN news had a model run of OMA approaching the mid Nth coast on the TV about an hour ago. .
. ACCESS G sticking to its guns that OMA will not enter into BOMs area of responsibility at all. In fact it has OMA thumping the north island OF NZ ON FRIDAY 22ND FEB .
The Southern flank VERY VERY WET
The intense cyclonic core going through the north of the nth island early Saturday morning as an intense transitioning TS.
The good thing is ... It is moving very fast at this point into the 'graveyard' ( westerly belt)
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml


Edited by crikey (17/02/2019 15:45)
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#1490702 - 17/02/2019 15:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Gonabe interesting which model will get it right.

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#1490703 - 17/02/2019 16:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
From the images I've received since early this morning, Oma is moving very slowly SW, using 1 hour intervals in the loop, but it's hard to tell as it doesn't have a clear central defined area in visible or IR.

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#1490710 - 17/02/2019 17:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
00z EC misses the shortwave again. Shortwave is waaay weaker as well. WTF.

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#1490712 - 17/02/2019 17:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Typical lol

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#1490713 - 17/02/2019 17:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Has landfall on Bundy as a Cat 1. Honestly, the Euro is going out on a massive limb here. I can't find any other operational model run that doesn't send it off to the graveyard.

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#1490714 - 17/02/2019 17:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
SMD1125 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/11/2015
Posts: 26
Loc: Innes Park, Qld
00Z EC has it crossing the coast near Bundaberg on 25 Feb as a Cat 1/Tropical Low......models are all over the shop with this one

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#1490715 - 17/02/2019 17:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
But how consistent has EC been with that, if it was CMC I would be doubting it but very interesting. Still think it will turn away though ..

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#1490725 - 17/02/2019 18:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Latest EC ensembles show more members recurving back towards the west or NW rather than headed towards the graveyard.

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#1490727 - 17/02/2019 19:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Steve O]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
I wouldnít go as far to say that EC has been consistent with it going towards the coast. This is only the third run where it has. Still nice to see this kind of possibility getting closer a few days out. That High pressure system is definitely expected to be quite a strong one for this time of year which should be more than enough to push Oma back west/North west, providing the SWT isnít stronger and faster than expected by EC.
_________________________
S.Kunze

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#1490728 - 17/02/2019 19:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Stephen]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
EC really doing its best to keep the hopes alive.

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#1490729 - 17/02/2019 19:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
BIG changes compared to yesterday's 00z run.

-Flatter shortwave (less chance of a full capture. Blue arrows / shading)
-Earlier arrival of the new mid-level ridge to block it from heading to the graveyard. Notice the ridge (orange shading) has already almost built in under Oma on today's chart.
-Trough split has returned this run. See in today's run, the mid-level ridge (orange shading / arrows) separating the two troughs (blue shading - one over NZ which failed to capture Oma, and the other west of Oma. This one actually looks like a weak upper low which cuts off from the main shortwave and retrogrades.
-Oma's position up until this point is similar between both runs, maybe a little west on today's run.

Keep in mind, if Oma moves too quickly in the next 72-96 or so hours then none of this will matter as she'll well and truly be dragged off to the graveyard like many other models are still suggesting.

Yesterday vs today:


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#1490735 - 17/02/2019 19:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
This morning's 18z GFS FV3 brought Oma back up to the NW and washed it out off North QLD before the 00z returned to the graveyard/NZ path. And now this evening's EC is back with a vengeance. So there's still some unpredictability at work to keep hope alive. I still think too much has to go right for an impact on SEQ.

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#1490736 - 17/02/2019 19:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mega
Latest EC ensembles show more members recurving back towards the west or NW rather than headed towards the graveyard.


Any chance you could post the image?

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#1490737 - 17/02/2019 19:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Latest Oma Fiji Met warning, wobbling around, SSE 3kts, 980hpa cat2.

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#1490738 - 17/02/2019 19:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Mega
Latest EC ensembles show more members recurving back towards the west or NW rather than headed towards the graveyard.


Any chance you could post the image?



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#1490739 - 17/02/2019 20:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Looks like an Octopus, LOL.
Another beer please :-}
Cheers Mega!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (17/02/2019 20:01)

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#1490740 - 17/02/2019 20:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
I think we have to look at what is happening more in real time now rather than focus on the models. The real issue is that Oma has been battling shear ever since its formation and just can't seem to shake it off to fully get going. The more it gets sheared, the more lower level winds will influence its steering. EC may well be on the money; however, with so many competing factors at play, it's still anyone's guess as to what Oma's path and intensity will be.
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#1490741 - 17/02/2019 20:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Looks like an Octopus, LOL.
Another beer please :-}
Cheers Mega!


Yeah, a lot of those rogue ones are at the back-end of the run. I should have probably only posted up to 168 hrs just to show the split in the recurve and eliminate the noise at the far end of the run. Anyway, there are still members going for the graveyard solution, just not as many as there once were.

Meanwhile, all GFS ensemble members send it to the graveyard but as Ken has said before, GFS does have a tendency to be a bit too progressive at times. Time will tell anyway.

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#1490742 - 17/02/2019 20:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 388
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Just like to say great work guys, the posts and pics are very informative. Now back to watchin
DD
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#1490744 - 17/02/2019 20:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Latest Oma Fiji Met warning, wobbling around, SSE 3kts, 980hpa cat2.


Which is about 10 hpa weaker than EC forecast for right now.

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#1490752 - 17/02/2019 20:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 3036
Loc: Chillagoe
Sorry for the dumb question, but is Oma the same low that was over the Gulf, or did a new one form?

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#1490753 - 17/02/2019 20:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: cold@28]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Sorry for the dumb question, but is Oma the same low that was over the Gulf, or did a new one form?


Same one. Pretty unbelievable isn't it. Even if SEQ misses out, NZ will likely cop a pasting from it.

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#1490759 - 17/02/2019 21:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Both GFS still on the NZ train.

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#1490760 - 17/02/2019 21:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 3036
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Sorry for the dumb question, but is Oma the same low that was over the Gulf, or did a new one form?


Same one. Pretty unbelievable isn't it. Even if SEQ misses out, NZ will likely cop a pasting from it.

Thanks NF. She was slow moving around the Gulf, and now she's slow moving in the Coral Sea. The only time I thought she was fast, was tripping straight over the top of us from the Gulf to the CS in not so many hours.

Be interesting to see what she does next. NZ, NSW, Bundaberg, or back up north and across to the Gulf again, that'd be something...ha ha grin Although I guess that last part is not likely of course.


Edited by cold@28 (17/02/2019 21:18)

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#1490769 - 17/02/2019 22:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: cold@28]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 336
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Sorry for the dumb question, but is Oma the same low that was over the Gulf, or did a new one form?


Same one. Pretty unbelievable isn't it. Even if SEQ misses out, NZ will likely cop a pasting from it.

Thanks NF. She was slow moving around the Gulf, and now she's slow moving in the Coral Sea. The only time I thought she was fast, was tripping straight over the top of us from the Gulf to the CS in not so many hours.

Be interesting to see what she does next. NZ, NSW, Bundaberg, or back up north and across to the Gulf again, that'd be something...ha ha grin Although I guess that last part is not likely of course.


I could be wrong, but I don't think it is the same LOW that was hovering just south of the Gulf for days on end causing epic rainfall in Townsville... I believe that circulation washed out over northern Queensland and a new circulation formed on the monsoon trough just off the east coast as shown by UKMET, which is now Oma:

A = start location
C = current location (as of 10am AEST)
Z = end location (which happens to be the end of the model run on this occasion)

If it was the same circulation, 'A' would be just south of the Gulf.

UKMET transitions Oma to a subtropical (shallow warm core) system around the 22nd, strengthens her and sends her to NZ and beyond.

Interesting to see what actually plays out!


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#1490772 - 17/02/2019 22:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Dan101]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 535
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Dan101
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Sorry for the dumb question, but is Oma the same low that was over the Gulf, or did a new one form?


Same one. Pretty unbelievable isn't it. Even if SEQ misses out, NZ will likely cop a pasting from it.

Thanks NF. She was slow moving around the Gulf, and now she's slow moving in the Coral Sea. The only time I thought she was fast, was tripping straight over the top of us from the Gulf to the CS in not so many hours.

Be interesting to see what she does next. NZ, NSW, Bundaberg, or back up north and across to the Gulf again, that'd be something...ha ha grin Although I guess that last part is not likely of course.


I could be wrong, but I don't think it is the same LOW that was hovering just south of the Gulf for days on end causing epic rainfall in Townsville... I believe that circulation washed out over northern Queensland and a new circulation formed on the monsoon trough just off the east coast as shown by UKMET, which is now Oma:

A = start location
C = current location (as of 10am AEST)
Z = end location (which happens to be the end of the model run on this occasion)

If it was the same circulation, 'A' would be just south of the Gulf.

UKMET transitions Oma to a subtropical (shallow warm core) system around the 22nd, strengthens her and sends her to NZ and beyond.

Interesting to see what actually plays out!


According to BOM archives a new low formed out from the coast on the monsoon trough and the low from the gulf crossed over and merged with it. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/archive/index.shtml


Edited by Red Watch (17/02/2019 22:34)

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#1490773 - 17/02/2019 22:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Red Watch]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 3036
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
According to BOM archives a new low formed out from the coast on the monsoon trough and the low from the gulf crossed over and merged with it. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/archive/index.shtml

Thanks RW. Had a look thru screenshots, and now think I remember.

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#1490780 - 18/02/2019 07:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
The latest Access-G has now joined EC in a trend back to the coast in a northwesterly direction albeit in a weakening mode. The real interest is in Access-R which has a higher resolution and has Oma much further west than its less focused relative. Its next run should be issued within the hour.
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#1490783 - 18/02/2019 07:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 504
Loc: Elimbah 4516
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH AN EXPOSED
LLCC AND POCKETS OF FLARING BUT WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE WELL
DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC, AND SUPPORTED BY A 171727Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH ALSO SHOWED THE GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF THE
LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO
55 KNOTS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
KNES AND PGTW OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE
OF 59 KNOTS. TC 15P LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW
TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE NEARBY. HOWEVER, A DAY AND A HALF OF
QUASISTATIONARY MOVEMENT HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT UPWELLING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT A LARGE COOL POCKET OF SSTS (AS LOW AS 24 CELSIUS) AROUND
THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO THE DOWNTREND IN INTENSITY. TC 15P IS TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR
TO THE EAST. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE ON THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STR. DURING THIS PERIOD, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY
FROM THE COLD POOL INTO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WATERS AND BEGINS TO TAP
INTO THE DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH,
EXPECT IT TO INTENSIFY STEADILY, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS AT TAU
48. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE STR
AXIS AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO COMBINED INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM BEGINS
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF, WHICH REMAINS THE
SINGLE OUTLIER TAKING THE TRACK WEST TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN COAST
BEYOND TAU 72, LEADING TO A 700 NM SPREAD BETWEEN OUTLIERS AT TAU 120.
DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE HISTORICALLY WELL-PERFORMING
ECMWF AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TAU 120.
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#1490788 - 18/02/2019 08:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Squeako_88]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
NAVGEM and Access-G have Oma stalling and then pushing back NW, with the latter really weakening. EC sends Oma off to SEQ again but at the last minute veering away to the NW toward North QLD. Still lots of uncertainty.

Now if GFS changes its mind in one of the next few runs I think we'll be onto something. Until then just hoping to see continued uncertainty among some of the models to give us a chance at least.

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#1490798 - 18/02/2019 10:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
High res visible from 8:30 this morning. Showing a SW movement now also. Seems to look more disorganised this morning.

Himawaricast image from Jcsat2B.


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#1490799 - 18/02/2019 11:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I don't like the new ridge orientation on 12z EC personally as it builds north too far which would highly favour a track back towards the NW than back on to the coast. It's actually a problem we've had all summer that these highs have tended to build north through that NSW / NZ corridor than just stay south and continue on their merry way east.

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#1490800 - 18/02/2019 11:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3633
Thats what EC are forecasting, NW track, still a long way off, models will keep changing.

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#1490805 - 18/02/2019 13:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2871
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
That what New Zealand Forcast said,

Tropical Cyclone Oma's future path not yet locked in.


1 A direct landfall around Brisbane

2 A Tasman Sea storm that rushes towards NZ then weakens substantially due to high pressure near Tasmania

3 A direct hit into the North Island as a serious ex-cyclone

4 A direct hit into the North Island as a weak ex-cyclone

5 Remaining at sea and weakening into a 'normal' low between NZ and Australia and New Caledonia.

https://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/t...-not-yet-locked


Edited by chasers addict (18/02/2019 13:10)

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#1490806 - 18/02/2019 13:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Can't believe the difference in the strength of the shortwave between EC and GFS/CMC at + 96hrs. Such a big factor there and could go either way.

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#1490810 - 18/02/2019 14:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
I can already see surge being a problem in SE QLD irrespective if whether Oma makes landfall or not.

This morning's high tide at the Brisbane Port gauge was already close to Minor Flood level with Oma still over 1,000km away.

Tide gauges are already showing up to 15cm over normal tide levels and this will only increase as Oma gets closer to the Australian mainland. I would be surprised if surge doesn't exceed half a metre at a minimum even if Oma stays well offshore, higher if she gets closer.

Add this to the already very high tides forecast for the end of the week and massive seas and you have a recipe for some coastal inundation and severe beach erosion.

Depending on tomorrow mornings tides I would hope that coastal councils start making sandbags available soon.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1490816 - 18/02/2019 15:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
It is interesting to note the anomaly between the last frame of the latest Access-R run (00UTC) and the first frame of the previous Access-G run (12UTC). There is a clear move to the west by the Access-R model as opposed to the south with Access-G. The corresponding geopotential height charts at 500 hPa are showing the short wave trough initially capturing the TC and then cutting off at the end of the run. It will be interesting to see whether GFS and UKMET will start to follow the lead set by EC and then NAVGEM and now Access in shifting this system west.

Edit: Just checking the opening frames out to 120 hours for the latest GFS (00UTC) and the answer to the above question is no. It still sends it south.


Edited by Inclement Weather (18/02/2019 15:24)
Edit Reason: GFS update
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#1490822 - 18/02/2019 15:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Interesting observation there IW. So it will be interesting to watch where ACCESS R goes with this in next 24 to 48 hours.

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#1490823 - 18/02/2019 16:00 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Flowin]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Interesting observation there IW. So it will be interesting to watch where ACCESS R goes with this in next 24 to 48 hours.


Yes, Flowin, like EC, Access-R has a higher resolution and it's been trending west for the last few runs as well.
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#1490824 - 18/02/2019 16:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
CMC, UKMET, FV3 and GFS still graveyard. Now it's over to you, EC.

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#1490825 - 18/02/2019 16:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS g has gone off thumping NZ with OMA. A cut of low does that from the westerly belt instead sunday 24th +162hr.
ACCESS still maintaining a ridge will protect pertinent parts the east coast this week. And ACC g still maintains the core will not go west past 160e into Bom's area of responsibility .
However cape Byron and surrounds juts out well into the Tasman and is much closer to OMA as he trys to transition south.
Mid latitude High pressure now comes under his southern flank
and is 160 25s on sunday 10 deg of longitude from the coast as a weak low
I don't recall any TC being able to transition into the tasmand and westerly belt near NZ this season. High pressure has kept them a float so to speak
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
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#1490826 - 18/02/2019 16:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Rhubarb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 782
Loc: West End, Townsville, QLD
It's looking as if Norfolk Island will be getting some much needed rain from TC Oma and I truly hope it is buried in the graveyard and doesn't hit North Island NZ.
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Rainfall
2019: 26/01 - 06/02 = 1,516 mm - Far Out!!!!!!!!!!!
2018 LOTS!!
2017: 823.5 mm
2016: 1,660 mm
2015: 430.5 mm

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#1490830 - 18/02/2019 16:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 739
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
HWRF is now sending it over the North Island of NZ, honestly it's pretty interesting to see the barometer continue to drop as a system becomes extratropical. Hopefully it doesn't eventuate, might even beat out Cyclone ITA (wonder if anyone has a summary for it.).

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#1490834 - 18/02/2019 17:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: ashestoashes]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
EC only up to 72 hrs on the latest run but I'm going to take a wild guess it's screaming north-west. It's already building a ridge up the NSW/QLD coast.

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#1490835 - 18/02/2019 17:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
96 hrs up and it's still heading west!

Edit: I note that the sat images in real time are showing the beginnings of some flaring convection that has not been evident today. It seems to be on the move a bit in warmer waters with shear decreasing on the latest CIMSS charts.
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#1490837 - 18/02/2019 17:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD

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#1490838 - 18/02/2019 17:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Heading north east at 144hrs according to EC. What a messy forecasting situation.
Will be interesting to see what the ensemble members look like tonight....
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#1490839 - 18/02/2019 17:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
The BoM is definitely factoring in possible coastal effects from Oma in its latest extended outlook:

Quote:
A medium to high chance of showers about southeastern districts. However this is dependent on the development and movement of tropical cyclone Oma and there is some potential for increasing rainfall and windy conditions over near coastal parts. Tropical cyclone Oma is most likely to remain offshore of the Queensland east cost in the Coral Sea with hazardous southeast to northeasterly swells persisting south of about Seventeen Seventy, as will the potential for coastal inundation and beach erosion south of Fraser Island.


It do note that forecast showers are upwards to the 50mm level with 50kmh winds for later in the week. In any case, there is much that can happen with Oms's path and intensity in the meantime.
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#1490840 - 18/02/2019 17:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Yep and big push north well offshore on 168. Consistency between models would be be that regardless of north or south itís not making landfall in Aus. Could change but landfall is looking more like wishful thinking that anything else right now. EC has a massive ridge developing up the coast. Scary dry continues for many.

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#1490841 - 18/02/2019 17:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
SMD1125 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/11/2015
Posts: 26
Loc: Innes Park, Qld
12Z EC run shows Oma heading towards the coast then NE back up into the northern coral sea......


Edited by SMD1125 (18/02/2019 17:46)

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#1490842 - 18/02/2019 17:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea true but IF there was a landfall it would most definitely be in the high uncertainty range being 100hrs+. Might still go to NZ.
We do have a fair idea that it will end up offshore a few hundred kms at the moment. Good kite surfing conditions.

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#1490846 - 18/02/2019 18:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: KevD]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: KevD
Yep and big push north well offshore on 168. Consistency between models would be be that regardless of north or south itís not making landfall in Aus. Could change but landfall is looking more like wishful thinking that anything else right now. EC has a massive ridge developing up the coast. Scary dry continues for many.


That big wintery trough over NZ is the issue. Further west this run leaving the new ridge with no room to do its thing. Those bloody Kiwis.

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#1490848 - 18/02/2019 18:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
BOM report for TC in our region . Has increased probability to medium.. Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Monday 18 February 2019
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 21 February 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
At 10am AEST Monday, tropical cyclone Oma was located to the west of Vanuatu

[over 1,400 kilometres from the Queensland east coast]

and moving in a south-southwesterly direction.
Refer to the Fiji Meteorological Service web site for the latest Forecast Track Map [http://www.met.gov.fj].

Although Oma is currently expected to remain offshore of the Australian east coast, hazardous surf conditions and abnormally high tides are forecast to develop about the southern Queensland and far northern New South Wales coasts during this week.
There are no other significant tropical lows in the region, and none are expected to develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday: Very low
Wednesday: Moderate
Thursday: Moderate
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/cyclone.shtml


Edited by crikey (18/02/2019 18:25)
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#1490849 - 18/02/2019 18:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Queensland verses cyclone Oma. 4:30pm EST.


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#1490850 - 18/02/2019 18:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
oh my Lear jet!!!!! Great capture. Doesn't he look awesome.
The outer cloud bands nearly touching the coast
Here is a water vapour imagery l found at NOAA. Is that a lot of dry air between OMA and us. It looks like a wall of dry ness

No wonder Access has so little rain forecast on OMA's approach.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH152019



Edited by crikey (18/02/2019 18:31)
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#1490855 - 18/02/2019 18:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: crikey]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
What the hell. The ridge is so powerful on EC's latest run. Instead of helping Oma in it just blasts it to the north-east. How strong is that ridge, cmon!

So now EC has had the cyclone going almost all directions of the compass over the last few days. Of all the possibilities landfall now seems the least likely.

Hope there's yet another turn in this tale.

EDIT: GFS has a ridge about the same strength. I'm not sure it's possible for Oma to make landfall at all now. Game over?


Edited by Nature's Fury (18/02/2019 18:56)

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#1490857 - 18/02/2019 19:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
While EC model forecasts, are suggesting dance back to the north, HWRF 18Z is still sticking to continued southerly track with most easterly extent at about 160 deg longitude.
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt...ectStorm=OMA15P


Edited by Flowin (18/02/2019 19:12)

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#1490858 - 18/02/2019 19:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
What the hell. The ridge is so powerful on EC's latest run. Instead of helping Oma in it just blasts it to the north-east. How strong is that ridge, cmon!

So now EC has had the cyclone going almost all directions of the compass over the last few days. Of all the possibilities landfall now seems the least likely.

Hope there's yet another turn in this tale.

EDIT: GFS has a ridge about the same strength. I'm not sure it's possible for Oma to make landfall at all now. Game over?


The ridge was always supposed to be strong though - strong enough and deep enough to build under Oma and give her a kick back towards the coast. The issue here is the NZ trough - it's further west and amplified sooner than previous runs so the new ridge can't fully build-in under her to trap her:


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#1490859 - 18/02/2019 19:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS has had an update.Oh my !! Ridging weakens on Saturday morning temporarily and OMA barrels toward the coast and gets pulled up in time by developing ridging. ACCESS has the core at 157e 24s on saturday morning
Thats off the coast just north of Maryborough. which is on its southern flank.
A lot is going to hinge on the timing and size of ridging. And further more the TC has entered Bom's area of responsibility and still looks like a TC on the interactive map.
A small powerhouse approaching our coast.
Oh my isn't this fun. chuckle


Edited by crikey (18/02/2019 19:25)
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#1490860 - 18/02/2019 19:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
ACCESS sends her back up to Cairns after teasing SE QLD lol

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#1490861 - 18/02/2019 19:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea was abit strange that last bulletin claiming no tropical lows til Wednesday its a TC just nearing 160e I want to see the BoM track map. I suspect by Wednesday it will be in Aus waters and clearer guidance.


Edited by Steve O (18/02/2019 19:38)

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#1490863 - 18/02/2019 19:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
What the hell. The ridge is so powerful on EC's latest run. Instead of helping Oma in it just blasts it to the north-east. How strong is that ridge, cmon!

So now EC has had the cyclone going almost all directions of the compass over the last few days. Of all the possibilities landfall now seems the least likely.

Hope there's yet another turn in this tale.

EDIT: GFS has a ridge about the same strength. I'm not sure it's possible for Oma to make landfall at all now. Game over?


The ridge was always supposed to be strong though - strong enough and deep enough to build under Oma and give her a kick back towards the coast. The issue here is the NZ trough - it's further west and amplified sooner than previous runs so the new ridge can't fully build-in under her to trap her:



Thanks Mega that really shows it well. That trough is a nasty piece of work. If it doesn't capture Oma prematurely it limits the ridging sending it away from the coast. A very fine margin of error for SEQ landfall and starting to look very unlikely.

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#1490865 - 18/02/2019 19:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
The latest track map from Nadi shows a fair spread at the end of its run showing the uncertainty of movement after 72 hours. It's even got Brisbane in the picture now!

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#1490866 - 18/02/2019 19:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
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Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Sums it up well IW, cheers

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#1490867 - 18/02/2019 19:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Access-G's latest run now lines up with Access-R's recent change too.

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#1490868 - 18/02/2019 19:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
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Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
What's GFS gonna do...

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#1490869 - 18/02/2019 19:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
What were the ACCESS changes? I haven't been following them closely at all.

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#1490871 - 18/02/2019 19:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Inclement Weather Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Mega
What were the ACCESS changes? I haven't been following them closely at all.


There you go:



That's about as close as it gets to our part of the world before tracking north doing a reserve Oswald but not as close up the coast.
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#1490872 - 18/02/2019 19:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Originally Posted By: Mega
What were the ACCESS changes? I haven't been following them closely at all.


There you go:



Thanks IW. What were ACCESS-R and ACCESS-G showing before that though? Graveyard I presume?

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#1490873 - 18/02/2019 19:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Inclement Weather Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
No Mega, Access-R has been trending westward for the last few runs; however, this is the first time that Access-G has followed it.
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#1490874 - 18/02/2019 19:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
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Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Tasman Sea it was Mega.

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#1490875 - 18/02/2019 19:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
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Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Surely GFS will blink soon.

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#1490876 - 18/02/2019 19:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Thanks. CMC ensembles show a decent spread heading back to the NW with only one ensemble member crossing the coast as a significant system. Starting to think this one might just wash out off the coast tbh.

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#1490877 - 18/02/2019 19:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
It would be a real anti-climax if it didn't make landfall anywhere, even NZ, but it would be a perfect reflection of our pretty pathetic season.

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#1490880 - 18/02/2019 20:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC ensembles look pretty rubbish now tbh. Mostly keeping it offshore:


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#1490881 - 18/02/2019 20:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I'm almost ready to call it. Giving it another 24 hours.

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#1490882 - 18/02/2019 20:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Stephen Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Originally Posted By: Mega
EC ensembles look pretty rubbish now tbh. Mostly keeping it offshore:



What a change 1 day makes frown
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#1490883 - 18/02/2019 20:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Petar @ Sdny Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2007
Posts: 597
Loc: South West Sydney
Done and dusted for Oma. She's heading either South east toward NZ or North to the Coral Sea grave yard washout.
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#1490884 - 18/02/2019 20:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
If EC had the trough capturing it in the recent run I'd probably go with that NZ too. Not to say it won't be.. and or in a high shear environment, probs why it starts getting steered by ridge maybe as a shallower system.


Edited by Steve O (18/02/2019 20:25)

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#1490886 - 18/02/2019 20:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS g for the most part MEGA has forecast a southerly transition down the 163 e longitude line. It did for a few days send ex OMA to NZ and then went back to transition down the 163 e longitude line once again. This is the first time ACC 7 day interactive has TC OMA tracking directly SW to the coast / just off , currently.
( I only follow ACC G 7 day)
------
If my memory is correct from the posts on the forum,EC was the only model to have OMA track SW to the coast.
In fact it was an outlier with Navgem l think.

I said to my husband ." We may have a TC come near the coast. He said . " I know' l saw it on NBN news the otherday . Of course he is refering to the news picking up on EC forecast.
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#1490887 - 18/02/2019 20:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
if it didn't make landfall anywhere, even NZ,

Considering that impacts somewhere in the coral sea due to wind and waves alone. If landfall does not occur the impacts on beaches, coastal communities potential storm surge, etc make this significant for potential impacts. Unfavourable winds onto the Northern NSW fires would also be unwelcome.
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#1490895 - 18/02/2019 20:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Anyone watching the 06z GFS..?

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#1490896 - 18/02/2019 20:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Steve O]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Anyone watching the 06z GFS..?


Further west already. This might finally be the run where GFS loses its obsession with a NZ track.

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#1490897 - 18/02/2019 20:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
How good is that you wouldn't read about it. Just don't want to see it go to the graveyard.

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#1490898 - 18/02/2019 21:00 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Steve O]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Steve O
How good is that you wouldn't read about it .


Really goes to show EC's value once again. Stuck to its guns while GFS stuck to its and now look who's turning out to be right.

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#1490900 - 18/02/2019 21:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
For now, but still going to graveyard on GFS.


Edited by Steve O (18/02/2019 21:09)

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#1490901 - 18/02/2019 21:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
GFS is showing Oma a lot further west this 06Z run....

Even though is seems Oma still shifts off to NZ, it could possibly miss the SWT if it stays further north and west. That high pressure ridge doesnít seem as big on GFS. EC is sending a massive ridge which is just as bad as the SWT in terms of what it means for us.
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#1490902 - 18/02/2019 21:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
battle of the models?
does seem there is stall point at about the latitude of Fraser Island.

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#1490903 - 18/02/2019 21:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Flowin]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Pretty big moment. I think GFS is coming around even if its run still sends it off to the graveyard eventually.

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#1490905 - 18/02/2019 21:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Still graveyard but pretty obvious GFS is backpedaling again.

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#1490906 - 18/02/2019 21:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
The view across above the equator and below the equator on satellite water vapour and total precipitable water products appears remarkably symetrical at present. Does this have any bearing at present ?
water vapour https://meteologix.com/au/satellite/grid-australia/satellite-water-vapor-10min.html#play8

precipitable water http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mt...4hrs&anim=html5


Edited by Flowin (18/02/2019 21:21)
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#1490911 - 18/02/2019 21:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Dan101 Offline
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Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 336
Loc: Mackay, QLD
EC will either come out of this on a pedestal, or will continue on it's fairly poor form this season and be crumpled up and thrown in the bin grin . Have to agree though, GFS seems to be stuttering, and all other models trending further west with each run. GFS 00z ensemble tracks show one member following a similar track to EC, will be interesting what 06z shows.




UKMET has also slowed her motion and moved her further west between 12z and 00z runs

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#1490914 - 18/02/2019 21:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Dan101 Offline
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Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 336
Loc: Mackay, QLD
JTWC also understandably very non-committal and keeping their options open more so than previous forecasts.


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#1490915 - 18/02/2019 21:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Petar @ Sdny Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2007
Posts: 597
Loc: South West Sydney
Anyone have a nice loop for the coral sea, to follow the path and structure of TC Oma?
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#1490917 - 18/02/2019 22:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Windyty.com is probably the best.
I have no loops but this looks pretty recent.


Edited by Steve O (18/02/2019 22:15)

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#1490918 - 18/02/2019 22:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 336
Loc: Mackay, QLD
I like this one, image is centred on the centre of rotation so easier to get a sense of movement. Live link: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2019_15P/web/basicGifDisplay.html

Snapshot right now (won't update)... Recent frames seem to show a change to a more westerly movement (could just be a temporary wobble):



Another loop, this one water vapour, if you tick the 'Fcst Pts" and "SAB Pts" check boxes it'll show past and forecast locations.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15P/html5-wv-long.html

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#1490920 - 18/02/2019 22:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Dan101]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Dan101
JTWC also understandably very non-committal and keeping their options open more so than previous forecasts.



Any wider and it might cover the Pacific Ocean...

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#1490921 - 18/02/2019 22:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
TrentG Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 26/01/2015
Posts: 23
Loc: Everton Park, QLD
I was just thinking the same lol

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#1490922 - 18/02/2019 22:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Yes that wide 'cone' of uncertainty is quite remarkable. At 48 to 72 hours still a lot of possibility of where this may go and at what strength be that warm core or cold core.
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#1490923 - 18/02/2019 22:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Dan101]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Dan101
EC will either come out of this on a pedestal, or will continue on it's fairly poor form this season and be crumpled up and thrown in the bin grin . Have to agree though, GFS seems to be stuttering, and all other models trending further west with each run. GFS 00z ensemble tracks show one member following a similar track to EC, will be interesting what 06z shows.



Even less going for the graveyard solution now and more going for the stall in the northern Tasman Sea. Still looks pretty garbage for Aus though unless you're a keen surfer:


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#1490924 - 18/02/2019 23:06 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 336
Loc: Mackay, QLD
JTWC clearly at a loss with Oma.


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#1490925 - 18/02/2019 23:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
ah yes, and a few hours sleep will give us another day,
and with that new day will give us an update on forecast possibilities,
and hopefully forecast probabilities informed by more consensus across the models.

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#1490926 - 18/02/2019 23:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Looking at 500mb longwave analysis, that huge trough that models are showing over NZ during the weekend is actually a longwave trough. The timing, huh? Bastard.


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#1490927 - 19/02/2019 01:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Petar @ Sdny]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 535
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Petar @ Sdny
Anyone have a nice loop for the coral sea, to follow the path and structure of TC Oma?

http://realtime.bsch.com.au/index.html?s...=&stop=#nav#nav

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#1490929 - 19/02/2019 06:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
SMD1125 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/11/2015
Posts: 26
Loc: Innes Park, Qld
EC 12Z shows Oma coming ashore at WBB/Bundy as a Cat1/2 and washing out.......EC has shown this 3 or 4 times over the last several days, must be picking up on something

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#1490931 - 19/02/2019 06:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 504
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Once again EC has that upper system much further south and not impacting the TC significantly enough to make it go SE as well as the high seems to quickly build underneath it. This is only 4 days away now. 2-3 days until we know what really happens. going to be close


Edited by Squeako_88 (19/02/2019 06:56)
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#1490933 - 19/02/2019 07:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 336
Loc: Mackay, QLD
FV3 12z now also getting on board with Oma not being captured by the trough and pushed north again, before eventually turning SSW and impacting the coast just south of Mackay.

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#1490935 - 19/02/2019 07:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 504
Loc: Elimbah 4516
GFS ensembles are now in a 3 way split with a crossing, graveyard and washing out off the coast scenarios.
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#1490937 - 19/02/2019 07:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
HWRF has also swung to the west with the 06Z and 12Z runs.

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#1490938 - 19/02/2019 07:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Dan101]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Dan101
FV3 12z now also getting on board with Oma not being captured by the trough and pushed north again, before eventually turning SSW and impacting the coast just south of Mackay.


EC ensembles have shifted further north too. Wouldn't be surprised to see a Capricorn or CQ crossing on this arvo's op run at this rate.

Come on EC, keep shoving that dirty big trough outta the way!

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#1490940 - 19/02/2019 07:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Latest Fiji warning #109 has Oma moving WSW 5kts, be great if it keeps that up.

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#1490941 - 19/02/2019 07:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Mega, do you really want it! - look already at EC is suggesting for SEQ 8 day rainfall.
https://meteologix.com/au/model-charts/e...0226-1200z.html

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#1490943 - 19/02/2019 07:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Flowin]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Mega, do you really want it! - look already at EC is suggesting for SEQ 8 day rainfall.
https://meteologix.com/au/model-charts/e...0226-1200z.html
bring it on, and push it west further as well..
_________________________
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#1490945 - 19/02/2019 07:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Wow, looking the good this morning, and a lot healthier. Finally, it's in a shear free environment and while on the move - in warmer waters. The charts below indicate the clearer air. There's also a nice upper high developing right over Oma that is giving it first class outflow.






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#1490949 - 19/02/2019 08:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
12Z HWRF has finally begun to show the stall followed by the change in direction to the NW at the end of its 5-day run. After that, anyone's guess.

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#1490952 - 19/02/2019 08:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Flowin]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Mega, do you really want it! - look already at EC is suggesting for SEQ 8 day rainfall.
https://meteologix.com/au/model-charts/e...0226-1200z.html


Haha I know a lot of rain makes a lot of mess and can be very dangerous, but I love severe weather. Maybe because I live up in Buderim away from where flood water can reach. It is exciting to have a big event.
_________________________
S.Kunze

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#1490956 - 19/02/2019 08:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Here is an interesting view courtesy of NASA worldview page - cloud water path product. I do not know the full technical details of the product, but it is nonetheless an impressive view. The link name is too long for this forum software to recognise it so copy paste it into your browser

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Aqua_Cloud_Water_Path&t=2019-02-18-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=123.7156533516252,-41.20975625095017,191.2156533516252,-4.049600000950171&ab=on&as=2019-01-25T00%3A00%3A00Z&ae=2019-02-06T00%3A00%3A00Z&av=3&al=true




Edited by Flowin (19/02/2019 08:33)

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#1490960 - 19/02/2019 08:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Flowin]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Dreamland scenario for WBB/SEQ with EC's latest run, but believe it or not it's still the outlier with other models now pushing for a NW crossing much further north.

EC has an epic 2-stage event. First the crossing around Fraser and then slowly moving into WBB and washing out. Then a trough line forms with the remnants dragging down over SEQ dumping a lot more rain. The ultimate scenario, but most likely too good to be true.



Access-G is a real tease. It brings Oma very close to WBB, but doesn't cross. It travels up the coast but remaining just offshore finishing near Townsville at the end of the run but still going.



FV3 GFS is interesting. It does a reverse Oswald, crosses near Mackay and then sends the ex-TC straight out through SEQ.



JWTC has an even bigger cone of uncertainty than last night's release.

It looks like the forecast is changing toward a NW track, but now the real problem is that it may just stay offshore. I really hope EC sticks to its guns.

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#1490961 - 19/02/2019 08:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Flowin]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Mega, do you really want it! - look already at EC is suggesting for SEQ 8 day rainfall.
https://meteologix.com/au/model-charts/e...0226-1200z.html


Nobody would want this scenario. It's very much like the Brisbane floods of 1974 setup where TC Wanda came ashore around Maryborough and went inland and just sat there sucking in this black nor'easter. It would be ironic that the same system that brought the flooding to Townsville and the Channel Country would bring flooding down here. Still, this system needs to be watched.
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#1490963 - 19/02/2019 08:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
That is an informative post IW with your narrative across the different model scenarios, thank you.

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#1490965 - 19/02/2019 08:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
my family know all too well the 1974 floods, we lived at Rocklea opposite the footy field of St Brendans - our house went under water for 7 days ... so if anybody wants that kind of devastation again they are totally mad!

Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Mega, do you really want it! - look already at EC is suggesting for SEQ 8 day rainfall.
https://meteologix.com/au/model-charts/e...0226-1200z.html


Nobody would want this scenario. It's very much like the Brisbane floods of 1974 setup where TC Wanda came ashore around Maryborough and went inland and just sat there sucking in this black nor'easter. It would be ironic that the same system that brought the flooding to Townsville and the Channel Country would bring flooding down here. Still, this system needs to be watched.
_________________________
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#1490971 - 19/02/2019 09:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Latest GFS looking much more promising with a push further to the west so far in 18Z run. Even though it seems to wash out it a little before sending it North, it seems OMA would be at least close enough for a while to enhance our shower activity which would be great.
_________________________
S.Kunze

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#1490979 - 19/02/2019 10:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Some massive rainfall totals several hundred km off the coast with the latest GFS run. I would also imagine it would be pushing big seas and a fair bit of surge onto the coast.

With EC sticking to its guns and GFS trending West things are starting to look a little more interesting.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1490982 - 19/02/2019 10:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Yep, GFS finally comes on board and has it missing the short wave. Wow, interesting times. Usually goes the other way around with forecasts bringing a system onshore and then it swings away at the last minute.

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#1490989 - 19/02/2019 11:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Morning eye. wink Himawaricast image from Jcsat2B at 9am EST.


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#1490990 - 19/02/2019 11:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Wow at the size of Oma on satellite.

This storm is huge and is going to generate a significant storm surge on the Southern flank.

The outflow is looking amazing at the moment .
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1490991 - 19/02/2019 11:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Really intetested in next Fiji met update.

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#1490992 - 19/02/2019 11:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 134
Loc: Rockhampton - Xtra Dry Dust La...
Great to see it's going to miss Rocky. That's a relief.
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#1490994 - 19/02/2019 11:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2601
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
A relief from what exactly? more rain?

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#1490997 - 19/02/2019 12:06 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2366
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
If we get that amount of rain I will need a bigger boat.

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#1490999 - 19/02/2019 12:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
I think with that amount of rain, lots will need a boat. We wait & see.

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#1491000 - 19/02/2019 12:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: RC]
ifishcq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2018
Posts: 134
Loc: Rockhampton - Xtra Dry Dust La...
Originally Posted By: RC
A relief from what exactly? more rain?


Lol, what rain, it would be a relief not having wind bust things like TC Marcia. But Marcia was described as a 1 in 100 year storm, which means we are not due for another storm like that till 2115.
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ďIt's so dry the trees are bribing the dogs.Ē
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#1491001 - 19/02/2019 12:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
If anyone's wondering why Oma doesn't seem to be moving that much, the chart below from CIMSS sums up the mid-level steering winds at the moment. It's pretty much in the doldrums until the STR below it builds a bit more.

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#1491003 - 19/02/2019 13:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: ifishcq]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: ifishcq
Originally Posted By: RC
A relief from what exactly? more rain?


But Marcia was described as a 1 in 100 year storm, which means we are not due for another storm like that till 2115.


That is not a proper interpretation of 1 in 100 chance event. It is meant to be the chance it will occur in any year, that is 1% chance it could occur this year, 1% chance next year, and so on. It does not represent a prediction when the next similar magnitude event will occur.


Edited by Flowin (19/02/2019 13:07)

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#1491004 - 19/02/2019 13:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
HWRF 18Z track map now well on board with the more western track scenario near Fraser Is.
The change in the HWRF from 00Z yesterday, 06Z, 12Z, and now 18Z is quite remarkable.
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt...ectStorm=OMA15P

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#1491015 - 19/02/2019 13:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Oma is now a cat 3 - officially Severe Tropical Cyclone Oma.



Edited by Inclement Weather (19/02/2019 13:30)
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#1491017 - 19/02/2019 13:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2191
Loc: 中国上૲...
Will BOM take over responsibility for Oma when the centre crosses 160E or do they do that when Australian waters start to be affected?

Curious about the actual protocol used between Fiji and Australia

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#1491020 - 19/02/2019 13:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Once it crosses 160 its BOM's baby.
Name stays the same.

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#1491030 - 19/02/2019 14:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ThomasAlbert Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 18/02/2019
Posts: 2
Loc: Far NE NSW
Whats happening to Vanuatu at the moment?

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#1491032 - 19/02/2019 14:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: ThomasAlbert]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 3036
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: ThomasAlbert
Whats happening to Vanuatu at the moment?

I wonder how they've been coping in New Caledonia.

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#1491035 - 19/02/2019 14:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: ThomasAlbert]
Skydancer Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/03/2018
Posts: 5
Originally Posted By: ThomasAlbert
Whats happening to Vanuatu at the moment?


Long time lurker here...

Checked in a couple of days ago with some friends who live on Santo, they said it was very wet and windy but no major damage around Luganville.

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#1491047 - 19/02/2019 15:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
And GFS 00z keeps it further offshore again. Going to be a tease this one.
Access R also keeps it moving further south than previous run with what looks like an upper trough keeping it offshore and moving south. Still no consensus on this one by a long stretch.

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#1491053 - 19/02/2019 15:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: KevD]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Originally Posted By: KevD
And GFS 00z keeps it further offshore again. Going to be a tease this one.
Access R also keeps it moving further south than previous run with what looks like an upper trough keeping it offshore and moving south. Still no consensus on this one by a long stretch.


And GFS FV3 00Z Run has it very close to Fraser area once again and crossing close to central coast/Capricornia coast quite slowly
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#1491062 - 19/02/2019 16:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2871
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
The cyclone Eye looks bigger and case more damage inland becasue high tide effect rivers mouth and damaging winds between Cyclone and High pressure at same time.



Edited by chasers addict (19/02/2019 16:10)

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#1491064 - 19/02/2019 16:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2191
Loc: 中国上૲...
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 19 February 2019
for the period until midnight EST Friday 22 February 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

At 2pm AEST Tuesday, tropical cyclone Oma was located off the northwest tip of New Caledonia [about 1,400 kilometres east of Mackay] and moving in a southwesterly direction. Refer to the Fiji Meteorological Service web site for the latest Forecast Track Map [http://www.met.gov.fj].
Tropical cyclone Oma is expected to move west of longitude 160E and enter the Eastern Region early Thursday morning, although it may be as early as Wednesday evening. It is likely to continue tracking salowly in a southwesterly direction towards the east coast of Queensland late this week and over the weekend, resulting in hazardous surf conditions and abnormally high tides developing about the southern Queensland and far northern New South Wales coasts from Wednesday.
While some models have the tropical cyclone remaining offshore of southern Queensland, there is a possibility that the tropical cyclone may near or even cross the east coast late in the weekend. The position of the tropical cyclone will depend on the movement and development of an upper level trough during the coming days.
There are no other significant tropical lows in the region, and none are expected to develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday:Moderate
Thursday:High
Friday:High



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

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#1491082 - 19/02/2019 17:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Latest EC sticking to its guns. Path has hardly changed.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1491084 - 19/02/2019 17:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Yes, Locke, it's not backing off one iota. It is even worse with a direct hit and just smashing into us. NAVGEM is similar although it crosses further north around WBB.


Edited by Inclement Weather (19/02/2019 17:28)
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#1491085 - 19/02/2019 17:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
SMD1125 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/11/2015
Posts: 26
Loc: Innes Park, Qld
Tue 00Z EC run holds landfall again on northern Fraser Is & Bundaberg as a Cat 1/2 on late Sun morning


Edited by SMD1125 (19/02/2019 17:29)

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#1491087 - 19/02/2019 17:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: SMD1125]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: SMD1125
Tue 00Z EC run holds landfall again on northern Fraser Is & Bundaberg as a Cat 1/2


Yes, but the southern end of it here will have the more significant impacts.
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#1491089 - 19/02/2019 17:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
EC still holding and sub-980 on impact. I'm waiting to see if the black nor'easter forms afterward as well. It looks very similar to the previous run so far so I expect it will.

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#1491095 - 19/02/2019 17:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Add the HWRF 00Z to the list - another model now going for landfall (north of Fraser Island). As 980hpa. And the HWRF rain swath map has around 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400mm) north of Fraser Island.
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt...ectStorm=OMA15P




Edited by Flowin (19/02/2019 17:56)

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#1491102 - 19/02/2019 18:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ThomasAlbert Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 18/02/2019
Posts: 2
Loc: Far NE NSW
Thanks for the info Skydancer

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#1491108 - 19/02/2019 18:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Time for JTWC to get rid the graveyard bias along with their extra tropical transition prediction. EC is no longer the outlier and this won't be extra-tropical if it gets caught by the ridge.

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#1491109 - 19/02/2019 18:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Red Watch]
Petar @ Sdny Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2007
Posts: 597
Loc: South West Sydney
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: Petar @ Sdny
Anyone have a nice loop for the coral sea, to follow the path and structure of TC Oma?

http://realtime.bsch.com.au/index.html?s...=&stop=#nav#nav


That's the one! Thank you!
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#1491110 - 19/02/2019 18:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2191
Loc: 中国上૲...
BOM MetEye showing "landfall" at the northern tip of Fraser Island early Sunday morning. during Friday night/all day Saturday gusts of at least 34KT for SE Qld coastline.

looks like BOM forecasting is favouring the ECMWF model instead of the GFS outcome. there is still much uncertainty and too early to accurately predict what the final outcome will be.

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#1491111 - 19/02/2019 18:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Severe weather warning out now for abnormally high tides. Only the beginning I suspect.

Up to 1 meter of storm surge on Thursday and Friday.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1491112 - 19/02/2019 18:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I thought HWRF model uses the GFS model output to setup the outer domain of the HWRF model.
But looking at the 00Z GFS and 00Z GFS-FV3 it appears to me they may now be using the GFS-FV3. Rather interesting as I thought FV3 was not officially operational.

Anyway, PS the reason I keep posting about the HWRF model is that many here are very focussed on the EC model, understandably so, but we do need to look at what the other models are forecasting as well.
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1491116 - 19/02/2019 18:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2191
Loc: 中国上૲...
For more intense tropical cyclones (lower central pressure) does that mean the weather system is rotating clockwise faster? is there a correlation between the rotational speed of a cyclone and its central pressure.

I assume at faster rotational speeds the steering mechanisms would change

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#1491118 - 19/02/2019 18:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
just a very rough tab.on current velocity.
TC ~ .1500km away from coast.
Travelling at 8 knots ( 15km/hr) currently
100 hrs to make it to coast .
Divide by 24 hrs = 4.16 days.
wed, thurs, fri , sat, sunday
If OMA continues steadily at this this pace , then Saturday night, sunday morning arrival would be possible .


Edited by crikey (19/02/2019 18:50)
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#1491121 - 19/02/2019 19:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Just looking at the EC breakdown for coastal impacts. It appears from this one deterministic run that Noosa will be the worst off insofar as wind goes (strong gale 23m/s) and the lower Sunshine Coast the worst off for rain (upwards of 700mm)
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#1491131 - 19/02/2019 19:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Petar @ Sdny]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 535
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Petar @ Sdny
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: Petar @ Sdny
Anyone have a nice loop for the coral sea, to follow the path and structure of TC Oma?

http://realtime.bsch.com.au/index.html?s...=&stop=#nav#nav


That's the one! Thank you!

I set it to last 144 images so it updates itself plus that and a lot of other parameters can be changed also.

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#1491132 - 19/02/2019 19:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Steven]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 535
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Steven
BOM MetEye showing "landfall" at the northern tip of Fraser Island early Sunday morning. during Friday night/all day Saturday gusts of at least 34KT for SE Qld coastline.

looks like BOM forecasting is favouring the ECMWF model instead of the GFS outcome. there is still much uncertainty and too early to accurately predict what the final outcome will be.

I wish Meteye would show more of the ocean wind like the Water and Land forecast map does.

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#1491136 - 19/02/2019 19:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Locke]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 535
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Locke
Severe weather warning out now for abnormally high tides. Only the beginning I suspect.

Up to 1 meter of storm surge on Thursday and Friday.

I hope your dams are low enough for flood mitigation if high rainfalls eventuate from Oma.

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#1491141 - 19/02/2019 19:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
I am actually starting to feel a little nervous - EC is now spitting out 1645mm for SE QLD area's ...... anyone have Noah's phone number?????
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#1491142 - 19/02/2019 19:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Red Watch]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: Locke
Severe weather warning out now for abnormally high tides. Only the beginning I suspect.

Up to 1 meter of storm surge on Thursday and Friday.

I hope your dams are low enough for flood mitigation if high rainfalls eventuate from Oma.


We're on drought restrictions in March 2020 if we don't get decent falls this year. It's been extremely dry down here for a long time. It's a big risk to release water when there's still uncertainty about this system.

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#1491143 - 19/02/2019 19:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
do you think tho NF if it got to say thursday/friday it was looking the goods for the huge rain, that they would start releasing? .. i mean we certainly don't want to waste good water, but ............

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: Locke
Severe weather warning out now for abnormally high tides. Only the beginning I suspect.

Up to 1 meter of storm surge on Thursday and Friday.

I hope your dams are low enough for flood mitigation if high rainfalls eventuate from Oma.


We're on drought restrictions in March 2020 if we don't get decent falls this year. It's been extremely dry down here for a long time. It's a big risk to release water when there's still uncertainty about this system.
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#1491144 - 19/02/2019 19:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: pkgjmg]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
do you think tho NF if it got to say thursday/friday it was looking the goods for the huge rain, that they would start releasing? .. i mean we certainly don't want to waste good water, but ............

Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: Locke
Severe weather warning out now for abnormally high tides. Only the beginning I suspect.

Up to 1 meter of storm surge on Thursday and Friday.

I hope your dams are low enough for flood mitigation if high rainfalls eventuate from Oma.


We're on drought restrictions in March 2020 if we don't get decent falls this year. It's been extremely dry down here for a long time. It's a big risk to release water when there's still uncertainty about this system.


Locke knows a lot more about the dam than I do, but I would think releases have to be ordered tomorrow and completed on Thursday at the latest in order to reach the sea before the first big dump of rain on Saturday.

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#1491146 - 19/02/2019 19:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
EC is insane!
Its not even raining yet NF, no way that will happen, but Friday?
Wivenhoe 62.6% capacity atm + another 100% flood compartment. Will it be enough? Not at EC forecast even if they drain it.
Maybe I'm exagerating a bit, Locke?


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (19/02/2019 20:03)

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#1491148 - 19/02/2019 19:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
EC is insane!


it's more then INSANE ..... but it just get's worse each run!
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#1491149 - 19/02/2019 20:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Too early to say.

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#1491150 - 19/02/2019 20:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
EC is insane!
Its not even raining yet NF, no way that will happen, but Friday?


BEFORE the floods of 2011 I remember seeing an article in the CM about a big weather event and how they'd spoken to campbell newman about it - that was in the works for weeks because the BOM knew it was coming, they just didn't realise how bad it would be .. and still no-one was really prepared for what happend - RIP those who lost their lives .... BUT it does make me wonder if the BOM does get on board before friday, before any rain IF they will start releases ......

I'm a nobody, an arm chair chaser - and these are just my thoughts - but it does seem like a very worrying few days ahead until mother nature makes a final decision ..............
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#1491152 - 19/02/2019 20:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I think it's worth remembering that it's just one model and just one run showing those extreme falls over far southern QLD.

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#1491153 - 19/02/2019 20:06 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: pkgjmg]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
EC is insane!


it's more then INSANE ..... but it just get's worse each run!


It's reached peak insanity, the predicted falls can only lessen from here. The question will be how close to the forecast it ends up being considering all the uncertainties.

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#1491154 - 19/02/2019 20:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steven Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/04/2006
Posts: 2191
Loc: 中国上૲...
1600mm would fill Wivenhoe from empty - if that much rain actually fell the flooding could top the 1893 floods. It would be nothing like what anyone alive today remembers.

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#1491156 - 19/02/2019 20:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
JTWC has removed any mention of extra-tropical transition in their 7pm update.

---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 161.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, RAGGED EYE. A 190551Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5
(77 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST, NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED
BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN
SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPENS OVER
NEW ZEALAND. THIS ALLOWS THE STR TO QUICKLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM LEADING TO SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND, POTENTIALLY, A PERIOD OF
QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE
(HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL, CONVERGENT
WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN
26C). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
NNNN

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#1491157 - 19/02/2019 20:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thats not good, depending on your point of view. Just hope it delivers some rain?
Lots of online views atm btw.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (19/02/2019 20:14)

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#1491163 - 19/02/2019 20:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 3036
Loc: Chillagoe
And JTWC has it now doing a U-turn to the east.
http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh1519.gif

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#1491165 - 19/02/2019 20:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1664
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here is a time-lapse of satellite images from the last 24 hours and shows her moving quite nicely. (It updates every 30 minutes)

https://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-Queensland.aspx
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#1491168 - 19/02/2019 20:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Peachester
Can someone please post a link to the EC accumulated rainfall map?

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#1491170 - 19/02/2019 20:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Delta-T]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Can someone please post a link to the EC accumulated rainfall map?


https://www.windy.com

Rainfall accumulation is one of the option on the right hand side and number of days down the bottom of screen. EC option is bottom right.
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#1491173 - 19/02/2019 20:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
Is the cyclone the reason for Yeppoon getting SW winds on Saturday and Sunday (according to Meteye) ? SW winds in February seems very out of place.
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#1491175 - 19/02/2019 20:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Peachester
Thanks CF

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#1491177 - 19/02/2019 20:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Delta-T]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs

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#1491181 - 19/02/2019 20:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
GFS is so bad. It's STILL trying to send it to NZ (keyword 'trying' as the rest of the run isn't out yet). Just give it up already.

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#1491182 - 19/02/2019 20:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mega
GFS is so bad. It's STILL trying to send it to NZ (keyword 'trying' as the rest of the run isn't out yet). Just give it up already.


It's going south-east even faster now as well.

This event could be remembered for just how bad GFS (and FV3 GFS) are compared to EC.

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#1491183 - 19/02/2019 20:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Salty Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/12/2018
Posts: 46
Loc: Belgian Gardens
Having been through the infancy of this system here in Townsville, I can say that all the good intentions of man will make no difference to the outcome.

Dam releases here were made by the book, and they would have pulled it off too, had it not copped 400mm on the Sunday of the gates going fully open.

And still people are saying, open the gates sooner.
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#1491186 - 19/02/2019 20:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
What does the number 1645 represent in the graphic above. Seems out if line with surrounding values to be total rainfall?

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#1491191 - 19/02/2019 20:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Snapper22lb]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
What does the number 1645 represent in the graphic above. Seems out if line with surrounding values to be total rainfall?


1645 mm

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#1491192 - 19/02/2019 21:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thats astronomical.

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#1491193 - 19/02/2019 21:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
I'm off to check my insurance!!!!

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#1491195 - 19/02/2019 21:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Mega
GFS is so bad. It's STILL trying to send it to NZ (keyword 'trying' as the rest of the run isn't out yet). Just give it up already.


It's going south-east even faster now as well.

This event could be remembered for just how bad GFS (and FV3 GFS) are compared to EC.

Not yet smile

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#1491196 - 19/02/2019 21:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
06z ACCESS-R is further NW this run, closer to EC than the other models that try to bring her so far south.

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#1491197 - 19/02/2019 21:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Snapper22lb]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2366
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
I'm off to check my insurance!!!!


Do it now. Too late when it is heading your way.

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#1491199 - 19/02/2019 21:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
I'm not prepared to write GFS off yet.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1491201 - 19/02/2019 21:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Locke]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Old GFS is sending it off to the E/NE washing it out. GFS FV3 looks fairly similar to Access-G and sends it NW. Looks like it might make landfall around Mackay as a really weak system as well.

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#1491206 - 19/02/2019 21:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Global view of recent estimates of total precipitable water.
The symmetry about equator is intriguing.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mt...4hrs&anim=html5

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#1491211 - 19/02/2019 21:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Old GFS is sending it off to the E/NE washing it out. GFS FV3 looks fairly similar to Access-G and sends it NW. Looks like it might make landfall around Mackay as a really weak system as well.


I think they drop Oma so far south that unfavourable environmental conditions (most notably shear) actually weaken the cyclone to the point where the lower-level ridge just pushes the shallower remnants back up to the NW, parallel to the coast. If you look at FV3, it gets partially caught by the trough causing it to weaken significantly. ACCESS-G defies this theory though and keeps her intense the whole way up the coast.

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#1491212 - 19/02/2019 21:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Flowin]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 3036
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Global view of recent estimates of total precipitable water.
The symmetry about equator is intriguing.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mt...4hrs&anim=html5

That symmetry is intriguing.
A few wet seasons back, might've been 2014/15, think we had 4 cyclones in Au (2 each side), and directly above in the northern hemisphere there were another two above ours.

Anyone else remember that? I followed them all, and recharged my mobile data 3 times that month.


Edited by cold@28 (19/02/2019 21:42)

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#1491228 - 19/02/2019 22:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 739
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Seems like a pretty damn strong chance for landfall on the Queensland coast given that EPS is putting some bite behind its 500hPa anomaly. Hoping that there is minimal damage with this system, but i'm sure it will give you guys in the path a solid reprieve from the drought.

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#1491231 - 19/02/2019 22:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Donweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/01/2009
Posts: 152
Loc: Brisvegas
Anyone got access to the forecast precipitation amounts from the latest 00z EC model run? Looks like Brisbane could be in for a serious drenching this weekend if the EC model comes to fruition?

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#1491234 - 19/02/2019 22:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: ashestoashes]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2366
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Seems like a pretty damn strong chance for landfall on the Queensland coast given that EPS is putting some bite behind its 500hPa anomaly. Hoping that there is minimal damage with this system, but i'm sure it will give you guys in the path a solid reprieve from the drought.


I have to say that as dry as it is here the last thing we need is a wet and windy thing coming near us.

After the fires and next to no rain there is no grass cover. Lots of dead trees. Lots of trees with the roots mostly burnt out. This of course means they only need a stiff breeze to topple. My insurance co will divorce me if they have to replace the fencing they just replaced from the fires.

It won't be good for the reef either. Lots of topsoil and burnt dirt, ash, burnt trees washing out to it. If it happens it is the gov't fault as labour is greens and they prevented proper fire prevention with their vegetation laws and turning National Parks into cess pits of feral animals and weeds.

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#1491236 - 19/02/2019 22:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Donweather]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Donweather
Anyone got access to the forecast precipitation amounts from the latest 00z EC model run? Looks like Brisbane could be in for a serious drenching this weekend if the EC model comes to fruition?


Already posted on page 17 (last page)

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#1491237 - 19/02/2019 22:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Donweather]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 336
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Donweather
Anyone got access to the forecast precipitation amounts from the latest 00z EC model run? Looks like Brisbane could be in for a serious drenching this weekend if the EC model comes to fruition?

https://meteologix.com/au/model-charts/e...0301-0000z.html

Different models at the top left of the image.

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#1491240 - 19/02/2019 22:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
It looks like Oma is copping a bit of a hammering from shear at the moment. It's really encroaching in upon it with the LLCC partly exposed. It will do well to maintain its intensity through the night.

Edit: I'm surprised that no one has noticed that there's a track map out issued by the BoM at 7pm:



Edited by Inclement Weather (19/02/2019 22:51)
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#1491243 - 19/02/2019 22:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
It looks like Oma is copping a bit of a hammering from shear at the moment. It's really encroaching in upon it with the LLCC partly exposed. It will do well to maintain its intensity through the night.

Edit: I'm surprised that no one has noticed that there's a track map out issued by the BoM at 7pm:



I saw that when it came out. Their track map really keeps it away from the coast. This is likely to change tomorrow morning should EC continue with its current trajectory
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#1491246 - 19/02/2019 23:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Dan101 Offline
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Loc: Mackay, QLD
Ze Germans' ICON model is the latest to join the stall bandwagon, followed by NW movement - builds a stronger ridge to the SW of the system pushing it NW as opposed to EC, which is a weaker ridge which allows Oma to cross the coast at SEQ.



Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
It looks like Oma is copping a bit of a hammering from shear at the moment. It's really encroaching in upon it with the LLCC partly exposed. It will do well to maintain its intensity through the night.


Not wrong!


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#1491247 - 19/02/2019 23:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
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Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
It looks like Oma is copping a bit of a hammering from shear at the moment. It's really encroaching in upon it with the LLCC partly exposed. It will do well to maintain its intensity through the night.

Edit: I'm surprised that no one has noticed that there's a track map out issued by the BoM at 7pm:



Clearly a track purely to avoid panic.

Originally Posted By: Dan101
Ze Germans' ICON model is the latest to join the stall bandwagon, followed by NW movement - builds a stronger ridge to the SW of the system pushing it NW as opposed to EC, which is a weaker ridge which allows Oma to cross the coast at SEQ.


For what it's worth, that's ICON's very first run since last week where it hasn't sent it to the graveyard. Looks similar to FV3 in that the trough partially captures it, weakens it and it drifts back NW.

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#1491249 - 19/02/2019 23:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: pkgjmg]
Dawgggg Offline
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Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
EC is insane!
Its not even raining yet NF, no way that will happen, but Friday?


BEFORE the floods of 2011 I remember seeing an article in the CM about a big weather event and how they'd spoken to campbell newman about it - that was in the works for weeks because the BOM knew it was coming, they just didn't realise how bad it would be .. and still no-one was really prepared for what happend - RIP those who lost their lives .... BUT it does make me wonder if the BOM does get on board before friday, before any rain IF they will start releases ......

I'm a nobody, an arm chair chaser - and these are just my thoughts - but it does seem like a very worrying few days ahead until mother nature makes a final decision ..............


Just because one model run has 1600mm doesnt mean its going to happen.

Calm ya farm.

No need to panic about it, it's still 4-5 days out. They won't pre release water from a dam thats sitting on 60 odd % from one .model run.
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#1491250 - 19/02/2019 23:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Dawgggg]
Stephen Offline
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There has been at least 3- 4 model runs showing high totals from EC, not just one.
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#1491251 - 19/02/2019 23:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Stephen]
Mega Offline
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Originally Posted By: Stephen
There has been at least 3- 4 model runs showing high totals from EC, not just one.


Not crazy crazy high though.

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#1491253 - 19/02/2019 23:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Stephen Offline
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Last 2 have been, and there was at least one other that was 800mm. Crazy high enough
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#1491254 - 19/02/2019 23:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Stephen]
Nature's Fury Offline
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NAVGEM back out to the east again.

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#1491255 - 19/02/2019 23:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
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Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
NAVGEM back out to the east again.


wow lol

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#1491256 - 19/02/2019 23:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Squeako_88 Offline
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Looks like during tomorrow we'll get a better idea which way it'll go. GFS has the upper trough starting to affect Oma during tomorrow morning increasing speed towards the S-SW. EC, movement is more W-SW. So real time obs is going to be really important.
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#1491257 - 19/02/2019 23:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
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I tell you what, all of this uncertainty is starting to drive me insane poke come on EC, bring it home !
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#1491258 - 19/02/2019 23:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Stephen]
Nature's Fury Offline
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If EC changes at all I'd call it game over. EC and HWRF are now the only two models with landfall in WBB from what I can see.

I'd laugh if Oma got sheared to pieces overnight and then ended up sailing to NZ after all.

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#1491260 - 19/02/2019 23:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
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Really big shift SE on 06z EC but only goes out to 90 hrs.

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#1491261 - 19/02/2019 23:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Stephen]
Dawgggg Offline
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Originally Posted By: Stephen
Last 2 have been, and there was at least one other that was 800mm. Crazy high enough


Nearly a metre of rainfall difference.

No need to panic at all. Cannot believe the doomsday scenarios i have read tonight already.
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#1491262 - 19/02/2019 23:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Dawgggg Offline
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I'm surprised OMA is even a Category 3. It's core is seriously ugly.
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#1491263 - 19/02/2019 23:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mathew Offline
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Well it's looks like it's is moving south Tropical Cyclone Oma by the look of things.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
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#1491264 - 19/02/2019 23:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
ashestoashes Offline
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Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
If EC changes at all I'd call it game over. EC and HWRF are now the only two models with landfall in WBB from what I can see.

I'd laugh if Oma got sheared to pieces overnight and then ended up sailing to NZ after all.


TBH is those models are going for landfall I'd have pretty good confidence that would occur due to the those being the anecdotally the best performing models for me. Wonder if there are any analyses for accuracy of models.

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#1491265 - 19/02/2019 23:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Stephen Offline
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Originally Posted By: Mega
Really big shift SE on 06z EC but only goes out to 90 hrs.
not what I wanted to hear at all frown
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#1491266 - 19/02/2019 23:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Squeako_88 Offline
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Originally Posted By: Mega
Really big shift SE on 06z EC but only goes out to 90 hrs.


Hi Mega, can you post an image? thanks
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#1491267 - 19/02/2019 23:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Squeako_88]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Originally Posted By: Squeako_88
Originally Posted By: Mega
Really big shift SE on 06z EC but only goes out to 90 hrs.


Hi Mega, can you post an image? thanks


Oh dear.

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#1491268 - 19/02/2019 23:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
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Sent you two PMs.

It is worth noting that some 06z GFS ensemble members now have landfalls too as a significant system over the Fraser Coast, but GFS always seems to be a day or two behind when it comes to new data.

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#1491269 - 20/02/2019 00:00 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Well with Oma looking ragged tonight and our shining light (EC) possibly turning on us, I'm not looking to seeing what the models plug out tomorrow morning. Guess I'll find out then.

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#1491271 - 20/02/2019 00:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
zuldjan Offline
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Can you post the 06z run?
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#1491272 - 20/02/2019 00:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: zuldjan]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
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Originally Posted By: zuldjan
Can you post the 06z run?


Don't think I can publicly. Don't worry, it only goes out to 90 hrs. Oma is markedly further SE at 90 hrs compared with earlier runs.

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#1491274 - 20/02/2019 00:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Stephen Offline
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Well hereís to hoping 12Z reverts back to its previous 00Z track....
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#1491275 - 20/02/2019 00:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
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Looks like dry air is really eroding that eastern eyewall still.

The whole circulation is embedded with dry air, and unless it gets out soon, the system will likelyend up drifting nw before landfall.
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#1491277 - 20/02/2019 06:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Taylsy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2007
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Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
12Z EC has Oma sitting off the tip of FI for 2-3 days before finally crossing at Maryborough near the end of the run. Rainfall totals again under this scenario anywhere south of WBB will be decent, but for the duration of the run somewhat lower than the 00z run.


Edited by Taylsy (20/02/2019 06:20)
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#1491279 - 20/02/2019 06:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
pkgjmg Offline
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Registered: 01/01/2009
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Loc: Mt Warren Park
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: zuldjan
Can you post the 06z run?


Don't think I can publicly. Don't worry, it only goes out to 90 hrs. Oma is markedly further SE at 90 hrs compared with earlier runs.


out of curiosity why can't you share publicly?
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#1491281 - 20/02/2019 07:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Rod H Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2006
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Loc: Maudsland
Spokesman for BOM just on ABC Radio news stating TC Oma has changed course and is now heading for the Brisbane's north Coast . Looking promising for substantial rain on SE Coast. Lets hope so.!

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#1491283 - 20/02/2019 07:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2004
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EC you came back to us! smile now just wanna see some good development in Oma today
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#1491284 - 20/02/2019 07:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2006
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Loc: Diamond Valley
The next Access-R will be interesting. It generally performs well with its higher resolution. It's been edging closer and closer to the coast with each run.

Ah, Rod, I for one am not looking forward to Oma impacting here. It won't be pretty.

Edit: The latest track map is out. I guess they don't want to scare the horses, but I do note the large range of possible centres at the end of 72 hours


Edited by Inclement Weather (20/02/2019 07:32)
Edit Reason: add link to track map
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#1491285 - 20/02/2019 07:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Stephen]
Mega Offline
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Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Stephen
EC you came back to us! smile now just wanna see some good development in Oma today


Dunno about that. Now crosses as a weak low as late as next Thursday. The later, the less likely there's going to be a crossing at all.

HWRF has her getting too far south now too before heading back towards the NW.

Honestly, she looks terrible. Not sure why the sudden shift east in the modeling overnight when I would have thought a weaker system would be less impacted by the shortwave troughing.

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#1491286 - 20/02/2019 07:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Stephen Offline
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Well considering what you said the 06Z run had up to 90 hours, this is definitely a better outlook Mega, and Donít you think EC takes into account the weakness and steering influences in its runs ? Ofcourse it does.

I do hope the next run shows that high just slightly weaker like the 00Z run and keeps it crossingnear bundaberg though ..... just to be greedy for some heavy rain
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#1491287 - 20/02/2019 07:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
Stephen Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2004
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Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Stephen
EC you came back to us! smile now just wanna see some good development in Oma today


Honestly, she looks terrible. Not sure why the sudden shift east in the modeling overnight when I would have thought a weaker system would be less impacted by the shortwave troughing.


There is way more to cyclone than meets the eye, and yes that pun is intended. It looks like the outflow is starting to flair again, it may get its eye back today in its journey through better shear and warmer temps provided she gets a move on.
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#1491288 - 20/02/2019 07:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
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Loc: Townsville
Again, OMA looks like a dogs breakfast this morning. No real core, dry air completely wrapped into the system, se eyewall completely eroded.

If conditions dont improve the system will just wash out.

I think that will end up being the most likely scenario.
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#1491289 - 20/02/2019 07:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Dawgggg Offline
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There is no way in hell its a Cat 3 at the moment.
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#1491291 - 20/02/2019 07:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Dawgggg]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
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Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Again, OMA looks like a dogs breakfast this morning. No real core, dry air completely wrapped into the system, se eyewall completely eroded.

If conditions dont improve the system will just wash out.

I think that will end up being the most likely scenario.


Yup, that's the reality of it at this very moment.

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#1491292 - 20/02/2019 07:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090





I posted this in the SE QLD/NE NSW thread but will also post it here since it's relevant to Oma/ex-Oma's effect on a region.

The 1st graph above shows the latest multimodel accumulating rainfall scenarios for Brisbane itself (not necessarily applicable to other areas such as the WBB, etc) but with the EC and Norwegian models excluded in order to show the modest rainfall amounts from the other models more clearly.

The 2nd graph includes the EC and Norwegian models to show their still extreme scenarios (but latest EC is less extreme than yesterday for Brisbane).

From a purely statistical/modelling view, if I had to bet money on it, Iíd still go for an in-between scenario because statistically and scientifically, it often works the best i.e. not as extreme as say the Norwegian model but still wetter than the lowest models.

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#1491295 - 20/02/2019 07:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
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Seems to me Oma's sat pic is improving with every frame. No doubt she got a hiding during the night & putting herself back together again nicely IMO.

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#1491298 - 20/02/2019 07:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
mammatus meestrus Offline
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Loc: lennox head
agreed.

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#1491299 - 20/02/2019 07:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Jajang Offline
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Registered: 30/01/2011
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Loc: Brisbane, Queensland
Met eye now has the track map out to 5 days and while we arenít there yet BOMís thinking appears to align to EC now as itís sitting just off Fraser.

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#1491300 - 20/02/2019 07:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
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Loc: Townsville
Check out Microwave Imagery.

There's basically no core, it may look pretty on satellite but underneath the cloud tops its not a pretty sight.

Lucky to be a weak Cat 2 at best. It's also missed the best part of the night to intensify.
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#1491303 - 20/02/2019 07:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Dawgggg]
Nature's Fury Offline
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The way it's looking at the moment it's going to be a very coastal impact, mostly WBB and SC from a significantly weakened system. And that's just from the most optimistic models (EC and ACCESS-G). That's if Oma recovers from her bad night.

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#1491305 - 20/02/2019 07:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2006
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Loc: Diamond Valley
Yes, shear has completely cleared after last night's encroachment. It has plenty of time to reorganise itself. The only factor that would throw a spanner in the works is the dry air entrainment, but it's still able to draw moisture from its NE quadrant.
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#1491308 - 20/02/2019 08:00 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
pkgjmg Offline
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Loc: Mt Warren Park
i have to say she doesn't look as good as yesterday - some amazing rainfall total's being predicted - 1300mm+ that's just crazy ...
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#1491312 - 20/02/2019 08:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
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Oma positing itself close to Bundaberg for 2 days plus - be a bit epic if it just sits
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#1491314 - 20/02/2019 08:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
james1977 Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2009
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Loc: collingwood park
Ec have dropped the biblical rainfall in its latest model but Iím sure that will change again. But if itís gunna hover around off of bundy for a week then itíll be very localised to the low. . A lot of places will miss out.
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#1491316 - 20/02/2019 08:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
james1977 Offline
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Whenís the next model up date? And which update is the most reliable one?
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#1491319 - 20/02/2019 08:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Dawgggg]
KevD Offline
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Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Check out Microwave Imagery.

There's basically no core, it may look pretty on satellite but underneath the cloud tops its not a pretty sight.

Lucky to be a weak Cat 2 at best. It's also missed the best part of the night to intensify.

Exactly what Trav says here...Compared to yesterday it's a shell of itself right now. Still got some potential to intensify but missing the night window is not going to help. Latest Access R has it moving steadily towards the coast but then stalling towards the end of the run. R shows it further south than G at the same time period. With the upper trough passing through that'll help - but geez that dry air environment it is heading into is pretty harsh!

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#1491320 - 20/02/2019 08:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Flowin Offline
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Oma appears to have dropped off the official HWRF page.
Tidbits has HWRF but you get dizzy trying to follow those maps that move to follow the system frown
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#1491324 - 20/02/2019 08:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: james1977]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: james1977
Whenís the next model up date? And which update is the most reliable one?


If you're referring to EC, the data for its next run (00z) typically starts coming in from around 3:30pm and is usually finished for its whole 10-day forecast period around 5pm... but this depends on what website you use (e.g. Windy doesn't display the EC data until all the data's come in which is typically around 6pm or so for the 00z run).

EC is the most accurate model of all the global models for most atmospheric parameters and regions around the world, and has consistently been at the top of the objective skill score stats for decades but that's on average over a big sample size of cases. It's not always the case and another model/s is sometimes closer to the mark.
The most accurate (on average) method is a consensus or middle-of-the-ground approach using many models (together with human adjustments) rather than relying on any single model on its own even if it's EC. Hence the bit in my previous post for Brisbane rainfall amounts... "from a purely statistical/modelling view, if I had to bet money on it, Iíd still go for an in-between scenario because statistically and scientifically, it often works the best i.e. not as extreme as say the Norwegian model but still wetter than the lowest models". It's not always the case but more often than enough, it is.

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#1491325 - 20/02/2019 08:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Flowin]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Oma appears to have dropped off the official HWRF page.
Tidbits has HWRF but you get dizzy trying to follow those maps that move to follow the system frown


I noticed that last night as well haha.

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#1491326 - 20/02/2019 08:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
What qualifications does that guy at Higgins have that releases maps that you have to pay $38 a year for ?
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#1491330 - 20/02/2019 09:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Ken Kato]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: james1977
Whenís the next model up date? And which update is the most reliable one?


If you're referring to EC, the data for its next run (00z) typically starts coming in from around 3:30pm and is usually finished for its whole 10-day forecast period around 5pm... but this depends on what website you use (e.g. Windy doesn't display the EC data until all the data's come in which is typically around 6pm or so for the 00z run).

EC is the most accurate model of all the global models for most atmospheric parameters and regions around the world, and has consistently been at the top of the objective skill score stats for decades but that's on average over a big sample size of cases. It's not always the case and another model/s is sometimes closer to the mark.
The most accurate (on average) method is a consensus or middle-of-the-ground approach using many models (together with human adjustments) rather than relying on any single model on its own even if it's EC. Hence the bit in my previous post for Brisbane rainfall amounts... "from a purely statistical/modelling view, if I had to bet money on it, Iíd still go for an in-between scenario because statistically and scientifically, it often works the best i.e. not as extreme as say the Norwegian model but still wetter than the lowest models". It's not always the case but more often than enough, it is.


Thanks for that
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#1491331 - 20/02/2019 09:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Vinnie]
martyy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 16/03/2012
Posts: 14
Loc: Cairns Beaches
Originally Posted By: Vinnie
What qualifications does that guy at Higgins have that releases maps that you have to pay $38 a year for ?


I believe he has an internet connection

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#1491333 - 20/02/2019 09:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: martyy]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Watching that HSC video last night was ridiculous. Bookending some reasonable data analysis was hype and subscription advertising. It would be good if HSC could stick to the facts more without all the hyperbole and Hollywood especially since it's clear he knows what he's on about.

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#1491335 - 20/02/2019 09:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Watching that HSC video last night was ridiculous. Bookending some reasonable data analysis was hype and subscription advertising. It would be good if HSC could stick to the facts more without all the hyperbole and Hollywood especially since it's clear he knows what he's on about.


Oh come on, as much as I dislike most of his posts, he didnít really say anything out of the scope of possibility for this event. You are right, heís no meteorologist, but he still knows his weather stuff. Jeff was a good part of these forums for a few years. He mentioned many times it was only a worst case scenario and is not certain so I donít see the problem. As a business, unfortunately some other events he does hype it up, but I didnít see anything out of what I would expect to hear from someone watching the models. For him it is his livelihood, no one is gonna subscribe to a dull weather report.


Edited by Stephen (20/02/2019 09:14)
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#1491336 - 20/02/2019 09:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Mega]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 739
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Oma appears to have dropped off the official HWRF page.
Tidbits has HWRF but you get dizzy trying to follow those maps that move to follow the system frown


I noticed that last night as well haha.

Fellas there is a parent version called HWRF-P which provides the system on a larger map, it's the one i've been posting. Normal HWRF annoys me because I barely know my latitudes and longtitudes.

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#1491337 - 20/02/2019 09:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
A lot of models cradling Oma further north now. Why canít the high just stay at 1026hPa right through the runs. Unless EC sticks to its guns later today, I do believe Oma will be lost floating around the central coral sea until she dissipates. Come on EC, please have some good news today.
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#1491340 - 20/02/2019 09:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090



No worries james smile Latest ADT (Automated Dvorak Technique) as at 7:30am EST also suggests a significant weakening trend in Oma since yesterday.

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#1491342 - 20/02/2019 09:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
I would say over the past couple of hours the appearance on satellite has certainly started to improve again.
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#1491343 - 20/02/2019 09:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Locke]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
GFS runs still look awful. Old GFS has Oma going in circles in the southern CS until 240 hours. New GFS wobbles it a bit before sending it offshore North QLD to dissipate. HWRF sends it up toward the NW passing central QLD before the run ends.

Back to EC being the only coast-crosser at this rate and even that looks a bit shifty now with the wobbling offshore for days before a weak crossing.

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#1491350 - 20/02/2019 11:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
AceItUp Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/01/2011
Posts: 18
I look at site called MeteoStar and it's runs have OMA slinking a bit south just off Brisbane then Westerly only to reform a bit off Fraser and go through Bundy to Gladstone - quite the proposition!

Actually the term reforming is a bit OTT, more like a depression


Edited by AceItUp (20/02/2019 11:46)

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#1491352 - 20/02/2019 11:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
Bom are saying the first watch may be issued later today
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#1491353 - 20/02/2019 12:00 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: pkgjmg]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 535
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: zuldjan
Can you post the 06z run?


Don't think I can publicly. Don't worry, it only goes out to 90 hrs. Oma is markedly further SE at 90 hrs compared with earlier runs.


out of curiosity why can't you share publicly?

I think the 06z and 18z runs are paid for extras with ECMWF.

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#1491354 - 20/02/2019 12:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2871
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hello my cousin lives at Jacobs well near Moreton Bay how is the tide will impact ????

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#1491355 - 20/02/2019 12:06 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: AceItUp]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2366
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Originally Posted By: AceItUp
I look at site called MeteoStar and it's runs have OMA slinking a bit south just off Brisbane then Westerly only to reform a bit off Fraser and go through Bundy to Gladstone - quite the proposition!

Actually the term reforming is a bit OTT, more like a depression


Nup. Don't like that one. Take it off the table thank you. I much prefer Brisbane becoming armogeddan. grin

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#1491356 - 20/02/2019 12:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: bundybear]
AceItUp Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/01/2011
Posts: 18
Have never lived in Brisbane? It already is Armogeddon! grin

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#1491357 - 20/02/2019 12:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: AceItUp]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2366
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Originally Posted By: AceItUp
Have never lived in Brisbane? It already is Armogeddon! grin


I reckon we need to slice "The Great South East" off the rest of Qld and let them be their own state. It would certainly be Armageddon there then. Be bloody paradise in the rest of the state though. Imagine what Qld could do with the money that is sucked into that hole.

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#1491358 - 20/02/2019 12:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Red Watch]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: zuldjan
Can you post the 06z run?


Don't think I can publicly. Don't worry, it only goes out to 90 hrs. Oma is markedly further SE at 90 hrs compared with earlier runs.


out of curiosity why can't you share publicly?

I think the 06z and 18z runs are paid for extras with ECMWF.

They are. Latest 06z EC model keeps pretty much on track with the 12z run. It only goes out to late Saturday but keeps the system approaching SE Qld but then starting to swing more north towards the end of the run compared to the 12z run.

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#1491362 - 20/02/2019 12:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Riverside life Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 02/08/2016
Posts: 19
Loc: Coomba Park NSW2428
hi folks been awhile since I posted having spent some recent time in Tasmania. Now living back on the Mid North Coast NSW on the banks of the beautiful Wallis Lake near Forster. Well certainly some interesting times ahead for the eastern seaboard . Just to throw some further fuel for thought check out circulation at 4.53N 154.6E seems to be feeding Oma somewhat as well

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-195.00,0.00,576/loc=154.674,4.527
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#1491363 - 20/02/2019 12:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
Oma looks like she's gaining her composure again and eye is becoming defined or is that just me? BOM still have her as a CAT 3 - lots of stuff flying around FB that the BOM said earlier today DIRECT HIT ON BRISBANE AND GOLD COAST ........ (insert SHOCKED face here)
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#1491366 - 20/02/2019 12:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2525
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Eat my hat if it passes over Brisbane, somewhere further north fits the story better I think. Some hype machines going full throttle out there at the moment
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#1491368 - 20/02/2019 12:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 119
Loc: Ayr
I was thinking she looked abit better, what is happening with the dry air in the next 48 hours?

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#1491369 - 20/02/2019 12:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: pkgjmg]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
Oma looks like she's gaining her composure again and eye is becoming defined or is that just me? BOM still have her as a CAT 3 - lots of stuff flying around FB that the BOM said earlier today DIRECT HIT ON BRISBANE AND GOLD COAST ........ (insert SHOCKED face here)


Track map says Cat 2
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#1491371 - 20/02/2019 12:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: pkgjmg]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23724
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
Oma looks like she's gaining her composure again and eye is becoming defined or is that just me? BOM still have her as a CAT 3 - lots of stuff flying around FB that the BOM said earlier today DIRECT HIT ON BRISBANE AND GOLD COAST ........ (insert SHOCKED face here)


Still horrendous core structure on microwave. It wont reintensify any further unless the eyewall fully closes.
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#1491372 - 20/02/2019 12:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: ColdFront]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: pkgjmg
Oma looks like she's gaining her composure again and eye is becoming defined or is that just me? BOM still have her as a CAT 3 - lots of stuff flying around FB that the BOM said earlier today DIRECT HIT ON BRISBANE AND GOLD COAST ........ (insert SHOCKED face here)


Track map says Cat 2


yes that has been updated, but all morning they still had her at CAT 3 ....
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#1491377 - 20/02/2019 13:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 535
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
GFS 18z run now has Oma stalling off SEQ coast then doing a clockwise doe-nut and crossing the northern NSW coast.

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#1491379 - 20/02/2019 13:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Half of her inner eyewall is missing lol:


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#1491389 - 20/02/2019 13:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
Has the look of a wepac typhoon in high latitude ragged
with a huge eye atm. The eye feature on satpic suggests
it would still be worthy of a T4( 64kts. Satcom has not
updated yet.Thinking it will be still @ typhoon strength,



Edited by vorts (20/02/2019 13:59)

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#1491391 - 20/02/2019 14:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: chasers addict]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 3036
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Hello my cousin lives at Jacobs well near Moreton Bay how is the tide will impact ????

Too hard to tell at this point. Depends whether the tide is at high or low. Depends on the strength of the storm.
Looking at Jacobs Well on Google Maps, there's Stradbroke and multiple islands to protect it.
In my inexpert opinion you'd probably only have to worry about high tide being a bit higher than usual.
You might find something helpful here
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/

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#1491393 - 20/02/2019 14:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS g has landfall of a small but strong TC at 23-24 s latitude , on sunday afternoon ( t+114 hrs). Near Yeppoon.
The severe west /south west flank of this likely hybrid runs from the border to Rockhampton over the weekend

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (20/02/2019 14:15)
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#1491396 - 20/02/2019 14:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: vorts]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229

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#1491397 - 20/02/2019 14:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Rhubarb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 782
Loc: West End, Townsville, QLD
JTWC http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html and TSR http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ both show TC Oma turning East 22/23 February heading AWAY from the coast.


Edited by Rhubarb (20/02/2019 14:28)
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#1491398 - 20/02/2019 14:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
This is as much of the eye as I can squeeze out of Himawari 8 at 644nm visible.


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#1491406 - 20/02/2019 14:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE A WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST RECURVATURE AFTER TAU 72 WHILE
THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU
72. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY AFTER TAU 48.
http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh1519web.txt

----------
LOW confidence after 72 hrs.
http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh1519web.txt
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#1491407 - 20/02/2019 14:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 216
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Fascinating images of eye structure. Is there anyway of obtaining altitude of cloud tops? I presume this would be the tropopause and is it related to TC strength?
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#1491409 - 20/02/2019 15:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
crikey Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
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#1491410 - 20/02/2019 15:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 535
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
A lot of uncertainty after 10 pm Thursday plot. It seems to have a lot to do with the supposed ridge weakening on Friday by EC.


Edited by Red Watch (20/02/2019 15:28)

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#1491412 - 20/02/2019 15:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Multiversity]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
If I knew a bit more about the infrared bands, maybe something could be calculated as each wavelength penetrates to different levels. But I'm not up to that yet.

If the cyclone is nearer to the edge of the curve it can also be seen with a 3D effect, but this one is too close to the middle.


Edited by Learjet (20/02/2019 15:28)

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#1491413 - 20/02/2019 15:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
Gee she's starting to look really nice on sat again. I would certainly say some strengthening and re-organizing going on.
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#1491414 - 20/02/2019 15:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 216
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Fascinating. Thanks.
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#1491415 - 20/02/2019 15:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 535
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
JTWC has it going Easterly and GFS Northerly.

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#1491416 - 20/02/2019 15:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
GFS has it moving north and then south again to move into Brisbane region. Obviously that is part of extended GFS timeframe which is usually very inaccurate so I would definitely not pay too much attention to anything past this Friday. Looking forward to see EC this afternoon. Little bit nervous and worried that it will shift it too far away from SE Queensland to get any impact other than swell.....
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#1491417 - 20/02/2019 15:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 163
Loc: Moranbah
Looks like the STR is strengthening underneath...appears to be kicking it more westerly direction now...

Sat View

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#1491418 - 20/02/2019 15:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
The 00z run of the relatively high resolution ICON (German) model is currently suggesting the system continuing in an overall SW track, stalling over waters off the southern QLD coast early weekend, before its remains get pushed back towards the NW roughly parallel to the southern QLD coast in a progressively weakening state.

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#1491420 - 20/02/2019 15:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Ken Kato]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The 00z run of the relatively high resolution ICON (German) model is currently suggesting the system continuing in an overall SW track, stalling over waters off the southern QLD coast early weekend, before its remains get pushed back towards the NW roughly parallel to the southern QLD coast in a progressively weakening state.


Yes, the ICON model looks as if it's doing a reverse Oswald.

Edit: the latest CIMSS product on shear tendency indicates that what was once thought to be an inhibitor is now looking more and more to be a lot clearer:





Edited by Inclement Weather (20/02/2019 15:58)
Edit Reason: add cimss chart
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#1491425 - 20/02/2019 16:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
pkgjmg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/01/2009
Posts: 2955
Loc: Mt Warren Park
I just got an SMS alert from the EWN!!! QLD Flood Watch - Gladstone and NSW border issued by BOM at 2.55pm Wednesday 20/2/2019 ....

EDITED TO ADD - just received an email LOGAN IS NOW ON AMBER ALERT

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Issued at 2:55 pm EST on Wednesday 20 February 2019

Flood Watch Number: 1

River level rises above the minor flood level are possible across the Flood Watch area during the weekend and early next week. There is a risk of moderate to major flooding, dependent on the movement of TC Oma.

Tropical Cyclone Oma is expected to continue its track towards the southern Queensland coast in the coming days, which may produce heavy rainfall over the weekend and early next week. The specific area and duration of this heavy rainfall is dependent on the track of Tropical Cyclone Oma.

Catchments across southern Queensland remain quite dry after a delayed start to the wet season. However areas where intense rainfall is recorded will likely respond quickly.

Based on the current forecast track, minor flooding is possible in coastal catchments south of Bundaberg from early in the weekend.

Heavy rainfall may also lead to localised flooding.

Catchments likely to be affected include:

Calliope River
Boyne River
Baffle Creek
Kolan River
Burnett River
Burrum and Cherwell Rivers
Mary River
Noosa River
Sunshine Coast Rivers and Creeks
Pine and Caboolture Rivers
Upper Brisbane River
Lower Brisbane River
Logan and Albert Rivers
Gold Coast Rivers and Creeks
Condamine Rivers
Macintyre River
Weir River
Moonie River

See www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings to view the current flood and cyclone products for Queensland.

For more information on the Flood Watch Service: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/floodWarningServices.shtml

Flood Safety Advice:
This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and creeks should monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings.

Remember: If it's flooded, forget it.

For flood emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

For life threatening emergencies, call Triple Zero (000) immediately.

Current emergency information is available at www.qld.gov.au/alerts.

This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 219 at a low call cost of 27.5 cents, more from mobile, public and satellite phones.

Warning, rainfall and river information are available at www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/

Rainfall and River Conditions Map



Edited by pkgjmg (20/02/2019 16:29)
Edit Reason: more information
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#1491429 - 20/02/2019 16:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
I think the move by BOM is very wise. 'PKJ'..Err on the side of caution.
However l noticed no mention of wind? What if OMA's destructive western flank encroaches on land. Time to tie down etc. We have a tropical roof and some guidance on wind probabilities on the coast would be welcome
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#1491430 - 20/02/2019 16:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
I'm betting there will be a cyclone watch issued at 5pm today.

Edit: The latest coastal waters forecast issued at 3.50pm is instructive:

Quote:
Weather Situation
A high in the Tasman Sea will maintain a ridge over southern Queensland waters for the next couple of days. Tropical Cyclone Oma lies over the eastern Coral Sea, and is increasingly likely to track slowly southwestwards towards the southern Queensland coast later this week. East to northeasterly swells that are currently leading to hazardous surf conditions are expected to increase further over southern waters during the next few days, particularly from Thursday as tropical cyclone Oma moves closer. Strong to gale force winds are likely to develop about the far south by Friday.


Edited by Inclement Weather (20/02/2019 16:55)
Edit Reason: add coastal forecast
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#1491436 - 20/02/2019 17:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 216
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Given the uncertainty in the various models and the forecast track and evolution of TC Oma, is Australia at a disadvantage to say, the USA, where they have available NOAA aircraft and the data they can receive from dropsondes etc to plug into models?

I recall an article of a few years ago where RAVs were being flown into TCs off the north Qld coast but I am not sure what ever became of the initiative.
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#1491437 - 20/02/2019 17:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
focus Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 3
Loc: Gold Coast, Queensland
Well, today is the 65th anniversary of the unnamed cyclone that crossed the coast at Coolangatta in 1954. Worth a read...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/emergency/20...ry-1954/5266720

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#1491438 - 20/02/2019 17:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
That's an interesting question Multiversity. The planes the NOAA send into hurricanes provide valuable data for forecasters. I guess it's a funding issue here. However, if the frequency of TCs and their impacts increase then the government would do well to invest in such a resource. At the moment the BoM rely on ships to provide pressure and wind data on the ground, in addition to sat and radar observations.


Edited by Inclement Weather (20/02/2019 17:15)
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#1491440 - 20/02/2019 17:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
The ABC earlier said BoM have issued a statement that they may issue an advice "as early as this afternoon".
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#1491441 - 20/02/2019 17:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
That high pressure is too strong in the latest EC, donít have a chance of coastal crossing to affect down here with that so strong.
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#1491442 - 20/02/2019 17:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
EC latest run shows your neck of the woods very much in the convergence zone at 96 hours (Sunday 10am) Stephen
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#1491444 - 20/02/2019 17:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Pushing 600mm for Sunny coast across 4-5 days in latest forecast. Struth!

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#1491447 - 20/02/2019 17:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Snapper22lb]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Wave goodbye to Oma. EC sends it off to the NW parallel to the coast. Off Rockhampton by 144 hrs.

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#1491449 - 20/02/2019 17:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
It's not set in stone. Nothing is. EC had it pushing up that way in it's Monday run also.
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#1491450 - 20/02/2019 17:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Wave goodbye to Oma. EC sends it off to the NW parallel to the coast. Off Rockhampton by 144 hrs.


Yeah, the only saving grace would be if EC shows tomorrow that the high is not as strong and further south like every other previous run so far. Donít like those chance though being so close to the event. What a shame. Been looking forward to this for few days now. It is like a drawn out thunderstorm watching every run wondering if it will continue the direction to my house, only to be disappointed when it changes direction last minute
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#1491453 - 20/02/2019 17:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yep there's a good agreement with forecast members.

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#1491454 - 20/02/2019 17:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Steve O]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Oh yay Mackay will get a cyclone! Not.

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#1491458 - 20/02/2019 17:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Stephen]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Stephen
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Wave goodbye to Oma. EC sends it off to the NW parallel to the coast. Off Rockhampton by 144 hrs.


Yeah, the only saving grace would be if EC shows tomorrow that the high is not as strong and further south like every other previous run so far. Donít like those chance though being so close to the event. What a shame. Been looking forward to this for few days now. It is like a drawn out thunderstorm watching every run wondering if it will continue the direction to my house, only to be disappointed when it changes direction last minute


Stephen, EC is one model of many. Why all your faith in it? Anyway, I would focus more on what's happening in real time now rather than what the models are doing except for the shorter range and higher resolution ones like Access-R. What ever way you dice it, SEQ is going to experience significant impacts from this system even if there is no direct coastal crossing in which I would be grateful for.
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#1491459 - 20/02/2019 17:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
IW what significant impacts? Strong winds and heavy swell is not a significant impact when it comes to the significant impacts of cyclones.

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#1491460 - 20/02/2019 17:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Originally Posted By: Stephen
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Wave goodbye to Oma. EC sends it off to the NW parallel to the coast. Off Rockhampton by 144 hrs.


Yeah, the only saving grace would be if EC shows tomorrow that the high is not as strong and further south like every other previous run so far. Donít like those chance though being so close to the event. What a shame. Been looking forward to this for few days now. It is like a drawn out thunderstorm watching every run wondering if it will continue the direction to my house, only to be disappointed when it changes direction last minute


Stephen, EC is one model of many. Why all your faith in it? Anyway, I would focus more on what's happening in real time now rather than what the models are doing except for the shorter range and higher resolution ones like Access-R. What ever way you dice it, SEQ is going to experience significant impacts from this system even if there is no direct coastal crossing in which I would be grateful for.

You might be aware of this already IW but for some others who may not, EC actually has a slightly higher horizontal resolution than ACCESS-R (about 9km vs about 12km) even though it's a global model.

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#1491461 - 20/02/2019 17:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
If we are going off nearly all of the other models than the situation is even worse for not getting any cyclone. Except for ACCESS-R which doesnít go out quite that far yet. Thereís still time for EC to lower the strength of that high which would dramatically improve our chance of heavy rain. This could be our last chance of any decent rain for a while, so I for one have definitely been hoping it hits here.
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#1491462 - 20/02/2019 18:00 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
IW what significant impacts? Strong winds and heavy swell is not a significant impact when it comes to the significant impacts of cyclones.


Well, I for one, NF, have Hell Hole Creek running through my property which runs into the Mooloolah River. The BoM have already issued a flood watch for Sunshine Coast Rivers and Creeks, so I guess I'm under flood watch. If you don't think flooding is a significant impact from this system, I'm sorry.
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#1491463 - 20/02/2019 18:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
IW what significant impacts? Strong winds and heavy swell is not a significant impact when it comes to the significant impacts of cyclones.


Well, I for one, NF, have Hell Hole Creek running through my property which runs into the Mooloolah River. The BoM have already issued a flood watch for Sunshine Coast Rivers and Creeks, so I guess I'm under flood watch. If you don't think flooding is a significant impact from this system, I'm sorry.


You're not going to get flooding off this system with nearly all of the current forecast tracks. At this rate you'll be lucky to get much rain at all.

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#1491464 - 20/02/2019 18:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
IW what significant impacts? Strong winds and heavy swell is not a significant impact when it comes to the significant impacts of cyclones.


Well, I for one, NF, have Hell Hole Creek running through my property which runs into the Mooloolah River. The BoM have already issued a flood watch for Sunshine Coast Rivers and Creeks, so I guess I'm under flood watch. If you don't think flooding is a significant impact from this system, I'm sorry.


Thatís for potential rain which as we know wonít happen if the cyclone continues with its north movement so sudden.
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#1491466 - 20/02/2019 18:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Stephen]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
This is the latest EC falls:



Unless your central QLD there's not much in it. That high and ridge is too powerful to keep the cyclone further south on current indications.

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#1491470 - 20/02/2019 18:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
IW what significant impacts? Strong winds and heavy swell is not a significant impact when it comes to the significant impacts of cyclones.


Well, I for one, NF, have Hell Hole Creek running through my property which runs into the Mooloolah River. The BoM have already issued a flood watch for Sunshine Coast Rivers and Creeks, so I guess I'm under flood watch. If you don't think flooding is a significant impact from this system, I'm sorry.


You're not going to get flooding off this system with nearly all of the current forecast tracks. At this rate you'll be lucky to get much rain at all.


I speak from experience NF. We have been flooded here twice in the last five years. Unless you speak from experience and a knowledge of the local area, I suggest you be more guarded with your comments.
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#1491471 - 20/02/2019 18:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
SMD1125 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/11/2015
Posts: 26
Loc: Innes Park, Qld
12Z Tue EC run has it crossing the coast north of Bundy and washing out inland........areas south of the crossing should see some good rain if the EC model holds

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#1491472 - 20/02/2019 18:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
IW, Natureís Fury is just stating the facts of what is seen on every single model at the moment. Unless you place floods on 50mm of rain, you need not worry with the latest trajectory.
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#1491473 - 20/02/2019 18:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: SMD1125]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Originally Posted By: SMD1125
12Z Tue EC run has it crossing the coast north of Bundy and washing out inland........areas south of the crossing should see some good rain if the EC model holds


No use using an old run over the new run. New information is input into newer runs. And I believe both 12Z and 00Z are pretty much on par in terms of reliability, with maybe only a slight edge to the 12Z run.
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#1491475 - 20/02/2019 18:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Stephen]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Stephen
IW, Natureís Fury is just stating the facts of what is seen on every single model at the moment. Unless you place floods on 50mm of rain, you need not worry with the latest trajectory.


I'm sorry Stephen, but this is a fact: there is a flood watch for the creek that runs through our property issued by the BoM. That is a fact. A single model is one possibility. I guess the BoM have looked at an ensemble of the models and found a consensus and issued the watch. Now that happens to have some significance in our neck of the woods.

Edit: the latest track map has been issued by the BoM which is based on a consensus of the models and some human input.


Edited by Inclement Weather (20/02/2019 18:24)
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#1491477 - 20/02/2019 18:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090






Above are the latest accumulating rainfall scenarios from some of the models that were run at 00z today - 1st example is Maroochydore and the 2nd one is for Brisbane.
EC = dark blue, Norwegian = purplish red, etc

BUT these are for point locations and aren't necessarily representative of rainfall scenarios for other locations.

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#1491478 - 20/02/2019 18:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Originally Posted By: Stephen
IW, Natureís Fury is just stating the facts of what is seen on every single model at the moment. Unless you place floods on 50mm of rain, you need not worry with the latest trajectory.


I'm sorry Stephen, but this is a fact: there is a flood watch for the creek that runs through our property issued by the BoM. That is a fact. A model is one possibility. I guess the BoM have looked at an ensemble of the models found a consensus and issued the watch. Now that happens to have some significance in our neck of the woods.


You are right, they have much more info on hand than I could ever ask for or understand. I know there is a watch, Iím not denying that, but i would be in denial if I didnít believe that itís not looking at all good to get those totals that BOM have listed after any runs of any models today. Tomorrowís 12Z could revert back to its previous predictions, but I donít think that is likely.
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#1491479 - 20/02/2019 18:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Stephen]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
BOM has issued a flood watch because they quite rightfully want people to be aware of the possibility and also don't want to be held responsible for lack of warning. However that possibility looks remote based on current model runs. That could change, there is some uncertainty, but it's looking less and less likely with each passing hour.

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#1491480 - 20/02/2019 18:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
The latest track map is pretty much a replica of what EC shows at the moment, so I would think that their future updates of the track map will include it heading north away from SE Queensland. Not looking good at all. Track map has made it even clearer now.


Edited by Stephen (20/02/2019 18:26)
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#1491484 - 20/02/2019 18:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Oma (15P) - Coral Sea - February 2019 [Re: Stephen]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Stephen
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Originally Posted By: Stephen
IW, Natureís Fury is just stating the facts of what is seen on every single model at the moment. Unless you place floods on 50mm of rain, you need not worry with the latest trajectory.


I'm sorry Stephen, but this is a fact: there is a flood watch for the creek that runs through our property issued by the BoM. That is a fact. A mod