NOTICE!

The Weatherzone forum has now closed and is in read-only mode until the 1st of November when it will close permanently. We would like to thank everyone who has contributed over the past 18 years.

If you would like to continue the discussion you can follow us on Facebook and Twitter or participate in discussions at AusWeather or Ski.com.au forums.

Page 4 of 9 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >
Topic Options
#1489968 - 11/02/2019 17:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Here is a sat pic' of 'false color' showing just how hot the mainland is today with no rain, limited wind and limited cloud
5.30 UTC probably peak heat

Showing the cooler coastal effect
and of course the active monsoon in the coral sea with 2 INVESTs' there currently



source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/satellite/?tz=AEST&unit=p23&domain=14&view=34&satSubmit=Refresh+View
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1489976 - 11/02/2019 18:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I haven't been looking at the charts. Looks like a southerly is moving thru today? Yet the forecast temps are still rather high.

What changed in the forecast with the storms? Tomorrow was meant to be a very good day from what South Brisbane storms posted a few days back . Now nothing ?
Looking at the models, the Bureau's forecasts look pretty on the mark for what to expect today and tomorrow. Basically, higher chances in northern SEQLD (more-or-less the Wide Bay / Burnett region). Lower chances in the southern half of SEQLD, and if storms do form they'll more likely favour places nearer to the ranges.
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/wide-bay-and-burnett.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/southeast-coast.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/darling-downs-and-granite-belt.shtml


quote from the SBS page a few days back "At this stage Monday is looking like the pick of the days, but there could also be some storms around inland and southern parts on Saturday and Sunday"

From North Coast Storm chasers "especially on Monday where we might see widespread storms develop and possibly even become severe "

They both posted storm maps for Monday which was widespread.

I'm not being critical that the forecast was wrong, although we did get activity on Saturday evening. It's more so why the storms didn't develop today so we can have a better understanding.

Top
#1489983 - 11/02/2019 19:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2601
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
I spy with my little eye something in the Tasman sea beginning with H.

Groundhog day.

Top
#1489991 - 11/02/2019 21:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 388
Loc: Tallai, QLD
That is to farken funny. And correct
_________________________
Just here for the weather

Top
#1489994 - 11/02/2019 21:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Hi RC,

I see ex TC Osland over Rockhampton on this chart and I also see something beginning with H in the Tasman Sea at the same time:



Interesting, I also see TC Marcia off the coast of Rockhampton and a big H in the Tasman Sea again:


Top
#1489995 - 11/02/2019 21:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I agree with some of the earlier comments about green drought, and particularly so for areas closer to the coast.
Recent showers have greened up some veg compared to the dismally dry status a few weeks ago. at depth our landscape is short of the normal moisture levels. A few more weeks of dry weather will see this temporary green colour disappear.
A period of March and April typically expected rain would be very welcome to restore the balance of dry and wet weather.

Top
#1490000 - 11/02/2019 22:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2601
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Mega, cyclones go where they want to. If I remember correctly the months leading up to cyclone Marcia were reasonably dry, at least here anyway.

I looked back at a wetter period and saw the high pressure systems do not plant themselves there on a perpetual basis but are here today gone tomorrow.

Top
#1490005 - 11/02/2019 23:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: RC]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: RC
Mega, cyclones go where they want to. If I remember correctly the months leading up to cyclone Marcia were reasonably dry, at least here anyway.

I looked back at a wetter period and saw the high pressure systems do not plant themselves there on a perpetual basis but are here today gone tomorrow.

Cyclones go wherever the steering influences such as nearby midlevel ridges, upper troughs, etc steer them instead of just random motions.
Sometimes the track is highly predictable if the steering flow is clear cut and sometimes itís not if thereís competing steeering influences pulling at it and they have an erratic track as a result. In certain situations, a large TC can also affect a big enough area of its surrounding mean flow that it influences its own track but in all cases, TC tracks are governed by the laws of physics and the steering influences pulling at it.

Top
#1490008 - 11/02/2019 23:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: RC]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: RC
Mega, cyclones go where they want to. If I remember correctly the months leading up to cyclone Marcia were reasonably dry, at least here anyway.

I looked back at a wetter period and saw the high pressure systems do not plant themselves there on a perpetual basis but are here today gone tomorrow.


The point I was making was that you can get good rain events along the east coast even when there is a 'H' in the Tasman Sea. A good 'H' can help inject moisture from the Coral Sea into coastal troughs and sometimes even anchor them through our region. They can also play a role in blocking such low pressure systems (like Oswald) from escaping off the east coast and out into the graveyard.

I agree with your second statement for sure but I still think it's important to remember that there is a difference between say January's ridge and the ridge that set up last week. January's ridge was bone dry because it had no depth and it kept being re-enforced by highs coming across the bight. Last week's ridge was a more traditional summer high that set-up across the southern Tasman Sea and actually gave us some moisture...it's just a shame there were no real upper level troughs for it to feed into. Obviously, even those highs can be serial pests if they just sit there for weeks as you say, but my point is that they aren't all bad as it also depends on the other dynamics surrounding them.

Top
#1490010 - 12/02/2019 00:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Oswald was squeezed between two highs down the coast of Aus. Debbie was similar I believe. Without them we would have never seen them here.

Top
#1490013 - 12/02/2019 07:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
mammatus meestrus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 80
Loc: lennox head
Totally agree Mega.

It's that background moisture ingress from the deep mean E'ly flow from a decent high, not the very weak mobile highs we've had this summer which supplies the background rainfall for the sub-tropics ....and that has gone totally missing this summer.

It's making summer rainfall for the sub-tropics much less reliable, a statistic that can be hidden in generalised analysis by the increasing boom or bust nature of rainfall.

ie, if we get nothing and then an ex Debbie or Oswald scenario summer rainfall might look close to normal in terms of its overall precipitation.
It's the distribution of that rainfall that seems to be changing.

Hopefully we'll get something from the next round of showery pattern from the end of this week.
Don't really want a flood.
It's bone dry here with 2 days of extreme temps ahead.

It seems to be a feature of the modern social media age that people are fixated on rainfall "events" but it's the stuff in between that is probably more climatologically important for certain bioregions.


Edited by mammatus meestrus (12/02/2019 07:05)

Top
#1490018 - 12/02/2019 07:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090



Great analysis mammatus and Mega. Convective rainfall from showers and thunderstorms associated with troughiness in summer also helps in this area too but when that source of rainfall becomes less than usual, that exacerbates the problem.

Above is ACCESS-C's latest suggestion (via Weatherzone Layers) for accumulated precip between 4am and midnight tonight - one thing that makes me a bit nervous about today's thunderstorm potential is the fairly strong capping that some models have in southern parts as well as a midlevel inversion and not-so-ideal moisture so guess we'll have to wait and see if the strong steering winds aloft can still manage to advect inland cells into the more unfavourable areas. No southerly change today but there's still some good aspects about today's setup such as the shear and there should still be activity in our general region though.

Top
#1490019 - 12/02/2019 08:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1373
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Thanks Ken
Thought it was a shaw thing today bayside. But can now see we will have to be lucky
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

Top
#1490023 - 12/02/2019 08:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
mammatus meestrus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 80
Loc: lennox head
Nice to see you back Ken.

I'm primarily a lurker but very much appreciate reading your astute analysis.

Top
#1490026 - 12/02/2019 08:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..12 FEB 2019 TIME..0725

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.7C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........73%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... NW 6kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1007.3Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........2/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900 MONDAY...0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.5C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....23.2C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.6C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....21C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1007.3Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 33kph at 1439
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No significant weather.

Top
#1490027 - 12/02/2019 08:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: tsunami]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Thanks Ken
Thought it was a shaw thing today bayside. But can now see we will have to be lucky


Yep by the look of it there's goes our chance of a storm as well

Top
#1490028 - 12/02/2019 08:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
I wouldn't write things off yet - models currently disagree on extent for today. I'd just monitor the radar and play it by ear. Should still be showers or storms in the general region.

Top
#1490053 - 12/02/2019 13:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
Looking at 23Z temp trace a temp of 36/37 deg needed to produce and MAINTAIN a TS locally.

Top
#1490057 - 12/02/2019 13:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: retired weather man]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Looking at 23Z temp trace a temp of 36/37 deg needed to produce and MAINTAIN a TS locally.


37.6 out here atm..
_________________________
I hate winter

Top
#1490058 - 12/02/2019 13:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2705
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
2 rapid fire cells over Emu Creek and Crows Nest but no lightning showing. Moving very quickly to the South East. Very hot but a nice breeze coming off the Bay ATM here at Bracken Ridge.

Hey nice to see you back Ken.
Nice input by everyone too. Thanks.

Top
Page 4 of 9 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >


Who's Online
0 registered (), 36 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
MatthewBr, Raweth, Russellmill
Forum Stats
29947 Members
32 Forums
24194 Topics
1529247 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image