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#1489779 - 09/02/2019 16:04 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
Happy Birthday Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2173
Loc: Mareeba
That is awesome, thanks for sharing LJ.
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#1489788 - 09/02/2019 16:53 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Learjet]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2218
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Learjet
Originally Posted By: marakai
Thanks for that LJ, any chance of a close up of Lake Eyre as it fill's ?


Well I've been saving an image every day so I'll keep an eye on it.


That would be a great sequence to see M8. Thanks! smile

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#1490040 - 12/02/2019 10:29 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
justme Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 228
Loc: Pacific Haven QLD
If a cyclone develops in the Gulf, is that flooded area large or deep enough to help feed the cyclone, should be warm enough.

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#1490346 - 14/02/2019 12:58 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
justme Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 228
Loc: Pacific Haven QLD
Maybe its not that silly a question if it can do this. https://twitter.com/i/status/1095840050682695681

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#1490347 - 14/02/2019 13:02 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: justme]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7820
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: justme
Maybe its not that silly a question if it can do this. https://twitter.com/i/status/1095840050682695681


Wow, that is neat!

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#1493442 - 07/03/2019 18:31 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
youcantbe_cirrus Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/01/2019
Posts: 13
Loc: Cairns
From the Bureau:

A tropical low (17U) is forecast to form south of Bali today (Thursday). If it does form, it is expected to track in a west to southwesterly direction and gradually develop, and pass close to Christmas Island late Sunday or during Monday. There is a Low (less than 20%) chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone on Saturday and Sunday, increasing to a Moderate chance on Monday.



Noticed WA haven't had much happening this 18-19 season, anyone know what might have contributed to this?

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#1493444 - 07/03/2019 18:44 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
Just one thought 'mycirrus'. From the perspective on mslp patterns.
There has been a high pressure anomaly over the NT regions and surrounds were the nursery for cyclogenesis and then NW/WA systems emerge.
The high pressure anomaly has also likely contributed to the lowest 10% of their monsoon seasons as reported in a weatherzone article recently
It would be interesting to check that correlation with some time series data. There may be a bit of research on that somewhere if you google'


Edited by crikey (07/03/2019 18:45)
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#1493447 - 07/03/2019 19:03 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
youcantbe_cirrus Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/01/2019
Posts: 13
Loc: Cairns
Thanks crikey. So a persisting higher pressure keeps sitting around the top end? preventing cyclogenesis.

Does that boil down to the luck of the draw with weather systems? or is there a driving factor behind that. Would La nina and El Nino events play a role in this?

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#1493450 - 07/03/2019 19:23 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
There are many here on the forum that study climate drivers and l am sure they will give you some input. I myself ...certainly don't ...believe in luck of the draw.
I believe that a number of interacting climate drivers are likely to be involved.
Some that come to mind is
the SOI. / ENSO
Another is the IOD
Another is the MJO
and l believe the synoptic in the NH is important as well for positioning of strong cross equatorial flow.
and the above is probably not exhaustive.

This looks to be a good article for a start. I must read it all myself.. grin
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-18/monsoon-explaining-the-complex-weather-phenomenon/10722716
But l did quickly skim and read

quote
"The variability in the rainfall onset has largely been linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with it starting earlier in La Nina years and later in El Nino years. "
and wouldn't you know an el nino is forecast this year.
So maybe we might see some action soon. Before the season closes/
-----
If you look at the current cross equatorial , you can see it is currently un favourable for cyclogenesis near Darwin and NW /WA
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (07/03/2019 19:35)
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#1493452 - 07/03/2019 19:37 Re: NT/GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Mathew]
youcantbe_cirrus Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/01/2019
Posts: 13
Loc: Cairns
A lot of good stuff there. Thanks for the info

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