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#1490450 - 15/02/2019 08:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
bartholomu Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2011
Posts: 101
One very large volcanic eruption makes all the discussion mute, planet earth will dish out an extinction level event again as it has repeatedly over millions of years, we humans are a mere blip in time. Human population is the elephant in the room for all the problems our planet has, Enjoy life because unless some magical global population control is ever agreed to we are all heading to the same end period.

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#1490455 - 15/02/2019 08:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
I'd be worried about water vapour a hell of a lot more than any CO2 when it comes to warming of this planet that is for sure, especially at the levels they are right now which is very, very small but that is for another thread....

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (15/02/2019 08:36)

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#1490465 - 15/02/2019 11:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
According to NCEP El Nino formed in January, and el nino like atmospheric conditions existed in January.

Quote:
El Niño conditions formed during January 2019

Quote:
Compared to last month, the region of enhanced equatorial convection expanded near the Date Line,
while anomalies remained weak over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Low-level wind anomalies became westerly
across the western Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the
eastern Pacific. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index was negative (-0.6 standard deviations).
Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Niño conditions


(compared to last month. That is during January compared to Dec)

NCEP uses lower thresholds than BOM, so no surprise that NCEP declares el nino when BOM doesn't. But NCEP recognise that atmospheric conditions have been weakly el nino like, implying that the atmosphere has responded pretty much as expected to the weakly el nino like SSTs that have been present.

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#1490470 - 15/02/2019 12:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: marakai]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: marakai
And of Solar forcing the only factor taken into account is TSI as stated above.

WMO and the United Nations Environment Programme established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The role of the IPCC is to assess, on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis, the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate-related data or other relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature.

http://www.wmo.int/pages/summary/cosponsored_summary_en.html


Game Set and Match to Maraki.

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#1490471 - 15/02/2019 12:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
According to NCEP El Nino formed in January, and el nino like atmospheric conditions existed in January.

Quote:
El Niño conditions formed during January 2019

Quote:
Compared to last month, the region of enhanced equatorial convection expanded near the Date Line,
while anomalies remained weak over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Low-level wind anomalies became westerly
across the western Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the
eastern Pacific. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index was negative (-0.6 standard deviations).
Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Niño conditions


(compared to last month. That is during January compared to Dec)

NCEP uses lower thresholds than BOM, so no surprise that NCEP declares el nino when BOM doesn't. But NCEP recognise that atmospheric conditions have been weakly el nino like, implying that the atmosphere has responded pretty much as expected to the weakly el nino like SSTs that have been present.


So Mike, it hasnt been a modaki event these past few months after all?

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#1490472 - 15/02/2019 12:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Despite the trades being in Doldrums around the Kelvin Wave generation zone, which I understand is a clear westerly anomaly, the Pacific remains clear of significant tropical cloud except in the Western half of Nino.4, as it has been for months now.

Trades are back to typical at Nino1.2 through to Nino.4, and are progosed to remain that way for several days more. Which I reckon will continue to hold NIno1.2 SST cool (or cool further as cool subsurface waters very close to the surface there atm), ....and retain the present temp in Nino.3

I would say El Nino watch status remains a fair call, but this ENSO neutral state will remain for at least another week before we can call either a continuation of the present state, or a drift to Nino. For me a look at the SatIR image in 7 days time should be the best hint at which way the climate is heading.

Mike - re weak El Nino right now - is it possible for the northern hemisphere to have a weak El Nino while the southern half remains neutral? (that is not a loaded question, I dont know).

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#1490474 - 15/02/2019 12:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Petros


So Mike, it hasnt been a modaki event these past few months after all?


It has been very much a modoki event.

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#1490478 - 15/02/2019 14:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
According to NCEP El Nino formed in January, and el nino like atmospheric conditions existed in January.

Quote:
El Niño conditions formed during January 2019

Quote:
Compared to last month, the region of enhanced equatorial convection expanded near the Date Line,
while anomalies remained weak over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Low-level wind anomalies became westerly
across the western Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the
eastern Pacific. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index was negative (-0.6 standard deviations).
Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Niño conditions


(compared to last month. That is during January compared to Dec)

NCEP uses lower thresholds than BOM, so no surprise that NCEP declares el nino when BOM doesn't. But NCEP recognise that atmospheric conditions have been weakly el nino like, implying that the atmosphere has responded pretty much as expected to the weakly el nino like SSTs that have been present.


Doesn't that say "El Nino like conditions" and not an El Nino has formed? Big difference I would have thought.

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#1490479 - 15/02/2019 14:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
one drop Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/04/2014
Posts: 117
Loc: maryborough
no, it says "el nino conditions".
and acknowledges "borderline, weak el nino conditions"

it's not a binary on off switch.

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#1490481 - 15/02/2019 14:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
If El nino conditions last long enough then it is recognised as an official el nino event. If they do not last long enough then no event is recognised. If the conditions last long enough for an event to be recognised, then obviously the point at which the event formed is when el nino conditions were first in place.

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#1490487 - 15/02/2019 16:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
I wonder if this track be different if SAM had stayed positive?

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#1490515 - 15/02/2019 17:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: one drop]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: one drop
no, it says "el nino conditions".
and acknowledges "borderline, weak el nino conditions"

it's not a binary on off switch.


You are referring to NCEP? - or BOM?

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#1490525 - 15/02/2019 18:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
I wonder if this track be different if SAM had stayed positive?


Really good point. I'd say yes as it's only the trough that could send it to the graveyard. Continued ridging would have almost guaranteed QLD landfall.

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#1490532 - 15/02/2019 18:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
NF - Boo for the Quidge (in this rare instance). Cards continually stacked up against rain for the larger SE of Aus for so long now.

IF - we don't tend towards El Nino-like conditions over the next week, ....then long term statistics (no reference to current climatic condition indicators at all - they have not helped any of our predictions over the past year I reckon), would tend to favor flood after drought?

Apologies to those in N central QLD who are experiencing the aftermath of a whopper.

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#1490654 - 16/02/2019 23:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Side note...interesting article in the Australian today about the BoM & it’s homogenisation activities..l

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#1490660 - 17/02/2019 06:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Hahahaha!

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#1490679 - 17/02/2019 11:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Pacific EQ trades though the Nino regions look to very weak by this time next week. MJO looking to keep away from Aus for next week or two. Looking more Nino like every day of late.

If there is to be an Autumn break for parts of Aus, .....it wont be an early one?


Edited by Petros (17/02/2019 11:57)

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#1490689 - 17/02/2019 13:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Peachester
Yeah, the BOM do an awesome job. In another life I studied meteorology and got a job there.

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#1490720 - 17/02/2019 18:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Well done Delta-T, geez the Aus tropic's is running with a near-flat battery given we are just entering the 2nd half of February!:


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#1490750 - 17/02/2019 20:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Peachester
Hmm, better clarify that...
In a parallel universe that happened.

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