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#1493625 - 09/03/2019 17:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Are you seeing the signals on the GFS for precip. Looks somewhat interesting been a few runs now still showing some.

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#1493626 - 09/03/2019 17:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 216
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Interesting Mega. Those charts all seem to have an active Monsoon through top-end. Is this related to MJO as well?

I know that this is a gross oversimplification, but doesn't location and strength of highs over China control Monsoon encroachment down over Australia? Just wondering what's been happening across the equator and how that may be impacting our summer heat waves.
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Science is the only answer

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#1493627 - 09/03/2019 17:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090



Originally Posted By: Steve O
Are you seeing the signals on the GFS for precip. Looks somewhat interesting been a few runs now still showing some.

I think a sizeable proportion of that signal in GFS could be convective rather than a widespread steady rain event where everyone gets good falls - see above example from GFS for late next Friday (red stippled pattern and bolts = thunder) as a southerly change pushes up the coast.

Still looking like a few locations in inland parts of our region could be within striking distance of March max temp records early to mid week too... although still uncertain whether any will be broken or not.

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#1493628 - 09/03/2019 17:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yep I agree Ken, first thoughts looked like a possibility of thunderstorms over some days but haven't looked to closely yet. Also due to some of those Max temps could create some steep lapse rates but will have to keep an eye on it.


Edited by Steve O (09/03/2019 17:19)

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#1493629 - 09/03/2019 17:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Yeah, def some thunderstorm potential still appearing next week, maybe even some severe given the shear... but would have to keep a close eye on those dry W to SW winds trying to push close to the coast to see how much they limit or don't limit the extent of the activity during the first half of the week.

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#1493630 - 09/03/2019 17:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
Thunderstorms are currently affecting areas of the Mid North Coast south of Kempsey. Hearing thunder as I'm typing this from storms near Kempsey. The storm activity is forecast to spread further northwards up the rest of the MNC this evening and overnight.
Taree Airport recorded a 119km/h wind gust at 3:13pm this afternoon. Video from Cundletown (where the airport is) also shows hail around 3cm (or so) falling: https://www.instagram.com/p/BuxwhyWgRb4/

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#1493631 - 09/03/2019 18:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Yea Seabreeze, experienced my first decent rain since November, soaked to the bone & felt great.
Oh, at Port Macquarie. Some nice C2G as well & plenty grumbings.

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#1493634 - 09/03/2019 18:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Yea Seabreeze, experienced my first decent rain since November, soaked to the bone & felt great.
Oh, at Port Macquarie. Some nice C2G as well & plenty grumbings.
Yeah been some storms there at Port for the past two hours. Sounds like you're enjoying it. grin

Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Taree Airport recorded a 119km/h wind gust at 3:13pm this afternoon. Video from Cundletown (where the airport is) also shows hail around 3cm (or so) falling: https://www.instagram.com/p/BuxwhyWgRb4/
The Manning River Rowing Club lost its roof during the storm. It was a hosting a regional regatta today with rowers from elsewhere in the state.
https://www.facebook.com/NSWSESMidNorthC...e=3&theater
https://www.instagram.com/p/Buxvm7zgvAo/
https://www.manningrivertimes.com.au/sto...photos/#slide=1 (16 photos, you can also see the roofing took out the powerlines)

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#1493640 - 09/03/2019 19:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Mega]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2601
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: RC
Another day, another high in the Tasman sea.


Clearly a troll post


Obviously /rolls eyes


Edited by RC (09/03/2019 19:47)

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#1493641 - 09/03/2019 19:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
It feels great Seabreeze, beach was fantastic, water a tad cool but bearable & the oysters... Visitors really need to buy oysters straight fresh off the farm, supreme & much cheaper unshucked. Easy work.

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#1493642 - 09/03/2019 20:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5506
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
the oysters... Visitors really need to buy oysters straight fresh off the farm, supreme & much cheaper unshucked. Easy work.


Totally agree, oysters fresh of the leases are the best, had a dozen myself tonight.

Yes saw all that damage at Taree on the local News tonight, could see the impressive updrafts quite well this afternoon.

Should be some good totals tonight on the Mid-Nth coast.
_________________________
Rainfall
2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 302.7mm
2019 YTD - 631.8mm

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#1493646 - 09/03/2019 21:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Still raining, loving it.
Trying to work out how to take it with me ;-)


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (09/03/2019 21:36)

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#1493649 - 10/03/2019 01:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
Started the evening with a weak storm which brought a little lightning. There was more lightning occurring to the south and southwest in other cells teasing us (only about 10kms away but weren't moving this way). It looked like we were going to miss out on anything notable.
However just after 9:30pm, all of the sudden a cell just west of here came alive with lightning, and then it moved over with frequent lightning and heavy rain. The very lightning active storm brought lightning every 2-3 seconds on average. The storm stalled just offshore, which kept it close-by and also prolonged the lightning show. 27.8mm since 9am. Turned out to be another awesome stormy night.

Mother Nature turning on the hi-beams tonight (the glowing solar lights hanging there in the first pic being made well and truly redundant, lol):



More photos of the Manning River Rowing Club unroofing at Taree: https://www.facebook.com/NSWSESTAR/posts/2749480668611162
Have read reports of a house partly unroofed and lots of branches down near Wauchope (about 15kms west of Port Macquarie).

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#1493655 - 10/03/2019 07:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1669
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor

Sunday 10 march 33 Partly cloudy. Chance of any rain: 5% 0 Hot. Partly cloudy.
Monday 11 March 36 Hot. Partly cloudy. Chance of any rain: 30% 0 to 0.2 mm Hot. Partly cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon
Tuesday 12 March 33 Possible shower. Chance of any rain: 40% 0 to 1 mm Hot. Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the afternoon and evening.
Wednesday 13 March 33 Possible shower. Chance of any rain: 40% 0 to 2 mm Hot. Partly cloudy. Medium (40%) chance of showers or thunderstorm, most likely in the afternoon or evening.
Thursday 14 March 31 Shower or two. Chance of any rain: 50% 0 to 2 mm Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers or thunderstorm, most likely in the afternoon or evening.
Friday 15 March 33 Possible shower or storm. Chance of any rain: 50% 0 to 6 mm Hot. Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers or thunderstorm,
Saturday 16 March 32 Shower or two. Chance of any rain: 60% 1 to 10 mm Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.

This is Brisbane forecast for this week above. I'll simplify it below and put in what i think

Sunday 10 march Fine
Monday 11 March Fine
Tuesday 12 March Fine
Wednesday 13 March Afternoon Storm
Thursday 14 March Afternoon Storm
Friday 15 March Afternoon Storm
Saturday 16 March Afternoon Storm

No percentages, no chances of anything, just a snapshot of today's models.
I'll check this on Saturday and record each day.



Edited by paulcirrus (10/03/2019 07:34)
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1493657 - 10/03/2019 07:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
You'd even get rid of terms like 'possible' Paul? I agree with you on the percentage thing but even old-school BoM forecasts had terms like 'possible' and 'the chance' or 'slight chance'. So for Wed, Thurs, Fri and Sat you are absolutely 100% guaranteeing an afternoon storm for Brisbane? That's extremely ballsy!

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#1493659 - 10/03/2019 08:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE...10 MAR 2019 TIME..0735

CURRENT TEMPERATURE....25.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY.........77%
CURRENT DEW POINT........21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...WNW 3Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1018.1hPA
CURRENT VISIBILITY......25KM
CURRENT WEATHER.........5/8 cloud, haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900 SATURDAY..0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....22.5C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.2C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....21C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1018.7Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 35kph at 1454
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Haze.

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#1493662 - 10/03/2019 09:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1669
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I'm pretty happy that some kind of precip will fall on those days as models agree.
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1493663 - 10/03/2019 09:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090



Have posted this elsewhere but above is the max lightning flash density achieved by the latest EC at any stage between today and Friday.
As the notes say, it doesn't mean it'll be like that every and there'll probably be some days when activity in any given area is very localised or hardly any at all. The flash density's calculated from the forecast distribution of graupel/water/droplets/ice crystals in the clouds, CAPE, and the height of the convective cloud bases.
Today looks like a case of the possibility of very hit and miss stuff trying to creep into southern and inland parts of SE QLD.

Trying to forecast the extent of thunderstorms for this kind of setup is always tricky because the extent of storms depends on how far east the dryline manages to advance (more of a problem during the first half of this week). Mid to late this week is also tricky because it depends on the timing of a couple of S to SE wind changes.

Could be some severe storms though (brief damaging winds being the main risk at first) due to reasonable shear on some of the days and the drier low levels.
Due to that drier air, the majority of any storms should initially have high bases (mainly early to mid this week) although some of them may develop lower bases later if they can manage to reach more moist air closer to the coast.

The steering winds aloft are also pretty good for some of the days (which increases the chance of any inland storms reaching parts of the coast) but weaker on other days so storm chances will vary a fair bit from day to day.

How far east the dryline advances (more of a problem early this week) as well as the timing of the S to SE changes mid and late week look to be the main sources of uncertainty with storm extent.

Some inland locations still look to be within striking distance of approaching March heat records although still remains to be seen if any records will be broken.

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#1493664 - 10/03/2019 09:32 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: paulcirrus]
wilyms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 191
Loc: Roma, Qld
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus


No percentages, no chances of anything, just a snapshot of today's models.
I'll check this on Saturday and record each day.



Thatís very millennial smile

Just for the record, according to BoM, their new forecasts were because of feedback about the old ones being ambiguous.

http://www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS/rainfall-faq.shtml

What is interesting though is that the weather / rainfall forecast (first bit) is for the weather observation station (it has to be when you think about it) but the wordy bit afterward is for the larger metro area (where applicable).

I guess most people just want to know if they need a jacket, jumper, umbrella or hat for the day.

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#1493665 - 10/03/2019 10:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
LonnyDave Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 08/05/2018
Posts: 47
I notice 36 degrees is forecast for Brisbane tomorrow. Looking for the record March maximum was a little confusing on the BOM site as there seemed to be historically a number of Brisbane weather stations. What is the official Brisbane record maximum for March?

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