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#67803 - 13/09/2007 18:54 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
we have now had about 590mm this year the average is 856mm. the reality is even if we did get average rainfall for the rest of the year it wouldn't get us close it would get us to about 700mm about 159mm below average.

we need a few months say september october to be way wetter than normal

anyway dams now up to 39.6 percent

today was clouday and i think quite humid. no wet stuff today but they are expecting showers tomorrow, in fact for the rest of the week until next thursday then i guess the pattern changes and the wet season will be over....

well that is going by the 28 day forecast which says somewhere after the 20th in this month we will have 3 weeks of fine weather (must be a high in the bight)

anyway the models i have noticed have been consistently wrong this year so lets not hope that is the case

gee hardly any thuderstorms this year in perth either , i think you get a few (small) ones in summer and thats it
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#67804 - 13/09/2007 21:03 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6464
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
I would have thought Perth gets more t storms in winter (although they are usually rushing past on a squall line) and that summer maybe only around the hills gets a summer max??

Anyway more totals coming later this week so good news.
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#67805 - 13/09/2007 21:20 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
Don't worry about the 28 day forecast Vinny that changes all the time but I guess the cold fronts start to die down in the West about October on and strengthen in the Eastern part of Aus.

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#67806 - 14/09/2007 00:45 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
the winter thunderstorms that come up in the forecast are always very isolated

in summer there are a few storms but only very occasionally very little rain usually dry with lightning


regarding october, we still get 53mm november is the drier month at i think about 21mm

then january the dryest of them all with an average of just 10mm with not a cloud in the sky and that typical west dry heat

yeah that 28 day forecast is like tossing a coin. i have learnt that it is always changing so never right, they predicted only 3 days of rain this month and how accurate was that?

by the way i was talking about the 28 day forecast from this link

http://www.eldersweather.com.au/raindates.jsp?lc=w00
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#67807 - 14/09/2007 15:05 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
Water Storage in Our Dams on Friday, 14 September 2007


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Current Storage: 249.98 gigalitres (GL)
Total Capacity: 622 GL
Percentage of Total Capacity: 40.2 %
Available Surface Water: 140.0 GL

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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#67808 - 14/09/2007 15:06 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
one word for this month

wet!
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#67809 - 14/09/2007 15:16 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Any chance Vinny you can pass some over to the SE as well? :p Thats Excellent Vinny good to see 3 good months of rain there in a row!

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#67810 - 14/09/2007 15:33 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
if may and june had been good it could be close to 50 percent
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#67811 - 14/09/2007 15:35 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
you guys will probably get a good wet season ie october to march

and then i will say to you gee need some of the rain over here laugh
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#67812 - 14/09/2007 16:17 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
about 10mm out of todays system takes the monthly total to 65mm out of 81mm for the month
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#67813 - 14/09/2007 19:35 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
ColdsnapIII Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 6500
Loc: Mount Macedon, VIC
Fantastic stuff Vinny, nice to see WA getting some rain and the dams filling. It's a vastly different story here in the SE where rain is severely below average at the wettest time of the year but it's always nice to hear of above average falls in another part of the country. Hopefully it can continue. wink

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#67814 - 14/09/2007 20:05 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
rainfan Offline
Member

Registered: 07/09/2006
Posts: 1129
Loc: Bondi, Sydney
So is this the first time the S half of WA has had good rainfalls since 2005? May and June 2005 had over 200mm respectively? How would you rate this "winter's" rainfall compared to last year?

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#67815 - 14/09/2007 21:02 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
J_23 Offline
Member

Registered: 19/09/2004
Posts: 136
Loc: Perth
Well last winter was a shocker, only 467mm for the whole year, probably the worst we could ever have I hope. So far this year there has been 605mm of rain so much better than last year for sure.

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#67816 - 14/09/2007 22:40 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
Quote:
Originally posted by rainfan:
So is this the first time the S half of WA has had good rainfalls since 2005? May and June 2005 had over 200mm respectively? How would you rate this "winter's" rainfall compared to last year?
yes it is the first time since 2005 we have had good falls. in 2005 we had above average in may and june (below average in july) and average in august and above average in september

but may and june this year compared to 2005 was much dryer due to the blocking high in the bight
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#67817 - 15/09/2007 12:36 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
cyclonecece Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 7823
Loc: Brandon.. QLD..EX Karratha
great to see some more falls down there vinny,hopefully more to come.

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#67818 - 15/09/2007 23:00 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
yes hopefully they will continue... though with a few sunny days dispersed in between !!

is the elders weather 28 day forecast based on the weatherzone 28 day forecast, how accurate is it?

http://www.eldersweather.com.au/raindates.jsp?lc=w00

anyway
...................
according to a couple of websites ie weatherzone... and elders it says we had 10mm today?

when did this happen, where i live a cloud or two brought some very light drizzle for a minute or two and that was it but no way was it 10mm

must have been this morning, this 10mm?

anyway now up to 65mm (10mm today?)
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#67819 - 17/09/2007 08:28 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6464
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Well another front approaching the SW today but is a little weaker than it looked yesterday. However a nice chunk of cold air behind it with I think a second front forming , that could bring a total of 10 -25 squally mm across the SW over the next 24 - 36 hours. Enjoy it! laugh
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#67820 - 17/09/2007 14:26 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
Quote:
Originally posted by Ruckle:
Well another front approaching the SW today but is a little weaker than it looked yesterday. However a nice chunk of cold air behind it with I think a second front forming , that could bring a total of 10 -25 squally mm across the SW over the next 24 - 36 hours. Enjoy it! laugh
according to the lastest ocf (optimal consesus forecasr) they are going for a mere 1mm

yesterday we got 0.4mm but the day was mostly fine and sunny

today it has started off similar , with cloud but still sunny

yeah i hope you're right ruckle, about the 10-25mm


by the way where is west footscray , melbourne?
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#67821 - 17/09/2007 16:35 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6464
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Yeah, it might have been a bit optimistic, only 2 or 3mm down south so far but next 24 hours should provide some more. Yeah inner west of Melbourne.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#67822 - 17/09/2007 22:45 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
another 4mm today... not too bad takes total for month to 70.6mm

again... average is 81mm

the optimal consensus forecast says 12mm on sunday and 5mm on monday so we should get average to above average this month

dams are now up to 41.3 http://www.watercorporation.com.au/D/dams_storage.cfm?uid=3506-8538-5661-1132percent eek eek eek

(that is good news!!!!!)

what does that rate us in terms of dam levels in capital cities are we ahead of melbourne and adelaide

i would say so.
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