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#988077 - 08/05/2011 11:11 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
Well we had an overnight low of 9.9 this morning. Bit of high cloud around with moderate N'ly winds. Front should be here after midnight.

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#988078 - 08/05/2011 11:12 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
It's just my opinion, but I think the BoM is underestimating this front. I think there could be more rainfall than they are predicting.

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#988079 - 08/05/2011 11:12 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
Looks like frost could be on the cards for much of Australia for next week.

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#988154 - 08/05/2011 20:45 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
Speaking of frosts:

Quote:
Early season frost hits drought-stricken Salmon Gums
Brett Dutschke, Sunday May 8, 2011 - 18:13 EST

It's been half a century since Salmon Gums has been this frosty this early in the year, chilling to minus 0.9 of a degree this morning, eight below average.

The last time it was colder this early in the year was in 1954, when it dipped to -1.6 on the 30th of April.

It is also the earliest frost in five years for the drought-hit Southern Coastal farming community.

Thankfully this is not part of a string of frosty mornings, even though Saturday morning was quite cold, dipping to two degrees.

The outlook for this week is for a few warmer mornings due to wind and cloud increasing.
Early season frost hits drought-stricken Salmon Gums
Brett Dutschke, Sunday May 8, 2011 - 18:13 EST

It's been half a century since Salmon Gums has been this frosty this early in the year, chilling to minus 0.9 of a degree this morning, eight below average.

The last time it was colder this early in the year was in 1954, when it dipped to -1.6 on the 30th of April.

It is also the earliest frost in five years for the drought-hit Southern Coastal farming community.

Thankfully this is not part of a string of frosty mornings, even though Saturday morning was quite cold, dipping to two degrees.

The outlook for this week is for a few warmer mornings due to wind and cloud increasing.

However, light frost may return as early as Thursday or Friday morning as winds ease and skies clear again.

It's been another poor start to the year as far as rainfall goes, so this early frost is a worrying sign for farmers.

The wheat, sheep and cattle area has had 82mm so far this year, about 30mm short of the average to this date.

In the whole of 2010 only 206mm of rain was recorded, its driest year since 1994. The long-term annual average is 353mm.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2011
However, light frost may return as early as Thursday or Friday morning as winds ease and skies clear again.

It's been another poor start to the year as far as rainfall goes, so this early frost is a worrying sign for farmers.

The wheat, sheep and cattle area has had 82mm so far this year, about 30mm short of the average to this date.

In the whole of 2010 only 206mm of rain was recorded, its driest year since 1994. The long-term annual average is 353mm.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2011

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#988921 - 11/05/2011 21:36 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
12.3 atm

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#988924 - 11/05/2011 21:39 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
Not a lot of rain around right now, was kinda hoping that the high would kick up some moist easterlies and we would get some decent showers like we usually do but it is clear and cold right now. No sign of any decent rain for the south of the state till at least next Tuesday.

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#988938 - 11/05/2011 22:08 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
10.6 at the Airport now and it's only 8:08! shocked

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#988940 - 11/05/2011 22:09 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
Originally Posted By: Big_Pete
It's just my opinion, but I think the BoM is underestimating this front. I think there could be more rainfall than they are predicting.


Well I was wrong. The front gave fk-all rainfall

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#988951 - 11/05/2011 22:30 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
9.5 at the airport now! Maybe a frost tomorrow . . . cool

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#989398 - 13/05/2011 22:41 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
Quote:
Desperate farmers pray for rain
Graeme Powell, Friday May 13, 2011 - 13:24 EST
ABC image
Farmers in the south of the State are desperate for rain - ABC

The long dry spell is making many Western Australian farmers nervous.

Many are pouring over long range weather forecasts and continually looking towards the heavens in the hope the clear bright blue skies will be replaced by black clouds.

In the first five months of this year, Perth has received only a quarter of its average annual rainfall - 50 millimetres, it normally receives an average of 200mm to the end of May - and many farmers have received a fraction of that.

The President of the Grains Section at the West Australian Farmers Federation Kim Simpson says it is looking grim.

"You would have to say at this stage that the prospects for the grain crop is dropping every day," he said.

"It all depends of course on what happens at the end of the season, if it's a very long spring then a late start need not be a bad thing but the odds are at this stage that it's not going to be any sort of bumper year, and of course the longer it [rain] hangs off the less yield potential we've got.

"There's been a lot of dry seeding going on but most of us now are waiting for a decent opening rain.

"The predictions from the long-range people aren't good, so it's making a lot of us nervous but it needs to be in the next couple of weeks if we are going to have any sort of season."

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting rain on the west coast early next week from a weak cold front but doesn't know how much, if any, will reach inland agricultural regions.

There's also a low off the Pilbara coast which could move inland and provide some much-needed rain for farmers in the eastern parts of the Wheatbelt.

The duty forecaster Matt Botherhoven says the cold front approaching Perth should break down the cycle of high pressure systems in the Indian Ocean which should see more low pressure systems crossing the coast.

A senior policy officer at Agriculture WA Bruce Robinson says the long-range forecast from his climate change colleagues does not provide much comfort for farmers.

"There's continuing evidence that the rainfall over the next three months, May to July, is likely to be lower than normal over southern WA," he said.

"Whereas in the pastoral area, the range lands, it has been a particularly good rainfall season and there's an abundance of feeds.

"So the southern agricultural area, apart from pockets in the north, to the east of Geraldton, and some areas along the south coast and Esperance, soil moisture is very low."

But farmers are clinging to the hope that it will rain soon, so they can salvage some sort of season.

Mr Simpson says it's getting to the stage where farmers will have to think long and hard about planting a wheat crop, but for some it's already too late to plant canola.

"There are some areas, yes, who would at this point be looking at not sowing canola," he said.

"I suppose, personally, it would need to be a little bit more than two weeks before I'd give up sowing wheat but some people might at the end of May.

"Once it gets into June it becomes problematic, your chances of getting a reasonable return out of a wheat crop if you are sowing into June in this part of the world aren't real good unless you get a late finish.

"What I would say at the moment is that it's hanging in the balance - if it does stay dry for the next two weeks then no, it's not looking good, but we've just got to hope that the forecast is inaccurate."

The sentiment is echoed by Agriculture WA's Bruce Robinson.

"Look there's still a window that's open for planting," he said.

"I wouldn't be hanging up my boots at all yet. I think it could still well rain and we might have some rain at the end of this week, but it's just coming off the back of a very low soil moisture level that's there at the moment.

"There's still an opportunity for seeding to take place that's for sure. I can't predict when it's going to rain, but I'm sure it will."

But he admits many farmers are under enormous financial pressure after a poor season last year.

"There are many things that can be done to ameliorate the situation and people just need to keep chiselling away at it and stay fit and positive and I'm sure we'll turn the corner."



- ABC

© ABC 2011

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#989401 - 13/05/2011 22:46 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
Winter's looking a bit more hopeful now with negative SAM index, info from various people has boosted my spirits.

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#989404 - 13/05/2011 23:05 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
Pete ,

The front/trough I've mentioned will have its moisture feed mainly from a Trough / ( area of instability ) that will come into the SW from a WNW direction . It need to draw up the Cold front . And you can't be sure if it it'll spin up pre-front ( slower moving ) or just pass through quickly . So keep an eye on instabilty ( quite a small region 1,500 -2000 kms in line with Geraldton from tuesday onwards ) if it does come in it'll move in real swift . !
Either way it would be ( if it comes off as forecast ) a rather severe event . As for what it will do ( energy off the trailing edge [ re sw quadrant ] southerly winds moisture content ) for your particular area is another uncertainty. Either way , you'll either see a little of the remnants of what is currently hovering off Exmouth , The above mentioned severe event , or at very least a moderate cold front . Usually these sorts of systems tend to start around early May , obviously this year its running a little late . Fingers Crossed . !!!
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#989410 - 13/05/2011 23:38 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: S .O.]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
Cheers, thanks for that Southern Oracle. Will keep an eye on this one. The least this system could do is break the patterns of strong highs coming through.

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#989412 - 14/05/2011 00:06 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
NOTE : Others have expressed interest in negative SAM values being not good . I would try and take all sides/angles and glean what you can . Albany as you already know is Unique in WA , as you are open to the Easterly aspect aswell .
_________________________
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#989473 - 14/05/2011 12:02 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: S .O.]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
Yeah we had an easterly flow last night and had some heavy showers. 2.5mm in the guage. Albany had a big flood in '08 we got 113 mm from a cut-off low and we were getting moist easterlies.
I'm digging to find out all I can from the negative SAM values.


Edited by Big_Pete (14/05/2011 12:05)

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#989475 - 14/05/2011 12:04 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
Now this has made me confused:
Quote:
Previous studies have raised the possibility that the recent decline in winter rainfall over southwest Western Australia (SWWA) is related to the concurrent upward trend in the southern annular mode (SAM). On the basis of an analysis of 60-yr (1948–2007) reanalysis and observed data, the authors suggest that the apparent inverse relationship between the SAM and SWWA winter rainfall (SWR) is caused by a single extreme year—1964. It is shown that both the negative and positive phases of the SAM have little impact on SWR in the case that data for 1964 are excluded from the analysis. In addition, for periods prior to and after 1964 in the case that data for 1964 are excluded, the apparent relationship between the SAM and SWR becomes insignificant, and the circulation anomalies with respect to SWR appear to be an SAM-like pattern for which the anomalies at high latitudes are not significant. The result indicates that the SAM does not significantly influence the winter rainfall over SWWA. Instead, the variation of SWR would be more closely linked to the variability in regional circulations.


Source: American Meteorological Society

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#989504 - 14/05/2011 18:25 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
Thursday's synoptic looks good!


Quote:
Thursday 22:00 EST

Moist onshore winds along the QLD coast will bring a few showers. A trough in the south will generate isolated showers for southern SA and TAS. An approaching strong cold front should bring rain to southwest WA, locally heavy. High pressure should keep the country's interior dry.
Issued Saturday 11:56 EST

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#989529 - 14/05/2011 21:22 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
WZ forecast says heavy showers for Albany on Thursday and 10-20 mm.

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#989536 - 14/05/2011 21:47 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
15.2c at Albany Airport, heading for an overnight low of 10c.

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#989537 - 14/05/2011 21:49 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather [Re: Big_Pete]
Big_Pete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2004
Posts: 1955
Loc: Perth
Only got to 20.3 today and the wind was from the NE, even the NE'lies don't warm up the day.

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