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#67123 - 01/06/2006 14:11 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
well fine weather and no rain

drying climate here we go
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#67124 - 01/06/2006 17:22 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
gfs has a low rapidly developing and tracking down
the west coast in 6 days time hmmm

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#67125 - 01/06/2006 17:23 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
gfs has a low rapidly developing and tracking down
the west coast in 6 days time hmmm

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#67126 - 01/06/2006 20:47 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Phuzekhemisi Offline
Junior Member

Registered: 31/12/2005
Posts: 4
Loc: Perth, WA
I for one am very worried about a sustained drought. I am sure this June will be the driest on record. The cold fronts are just too far south (AND not strong enough). We'll get rain this month.. but it will be pathetic patchy showers, soon replaced by fine weather again. Probably late August and early September will be our rainiest period, probably still a little below average. Worse than 2001. If you look at the charts on BOM for indian ocean, there's no cold front within cooee of our latitude - so no rain, unless things change. But with the forseeable future forecast as fine, I see no hope.

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#67127 - 02/06/2006 10:04 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/twcGrads.jsp?model=gfs&chart=mslp&hour=-1

gfs has a deep low off the SW capes on wednesday hmm interesting

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#67128 - 02/06/2006 11:34 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
Quote:
Originally posted by Phuzekhemisi:
I for one am very worried about a sustained drought. I am sure this June will be the driest on record. The cold fronts are just too far south (AND not strong enough). We'll get rain this month.. but it will be pathetic patchy showers, soon replaced by fine weather again. Probably late August and early September will be our rainiest period, probably still a little below average. Worse than 2001. If you look at the charts on BOM for indian ocean, there's no cold front within cooee of our latitude - so no rain, unless things change. But with the forseeable future forecast as fine, I see no hope.
well http://www.eldersweather.com.au/raindates.jsp?lc=w00 is saying there will be four days of rain this month

10 june and 11 june smile
17 and 18 june smile

not good at all. I think dam levels will drop to 17 percent. I really really wish

that we could have a year like last year and then another good year not (one dry and one wet)
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#67129 - 02/06/2006 11:34 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
for some reason when i post a message it is doing it twice?
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#67130 - 02/06/2006 13:16 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
i done that a few times too vinny dont know how lol.
forcast is fine till at least next thursday frown

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#67131 - 02/06/2006 14:00 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
well wednesday they say showers confused smile
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#67132 - 03/06/2006 17:48 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
on thurdsay gfs has a fairly good sized low crossing perth confused smile
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/twcGrads.jsp?model=gfs&chart=mslp&hour=-1

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#67133 - 03/06/2006 21:37 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
mikef Offline
Member

Registered: 19/03/2006
Posts: 74
I know this is 16 days out but take a look at this gfs model and particularly the last scan...

http://radar.strikeone.net.au/index.php?fuseaction=loops.cola&modelID=4&modelType=18

Gee if this happened it would be an interesting weather event. It is about as likely to happen as it is to be sunny and light winds that far out but my experience says that something may occur around that time but it does tend to exagerate a bit smile

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#67134 - 03/06/2006 23:05 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Tim S Offline
Member

Registered: 10/06/2003
Posts: 1549
16 days out Chop! now you are really starting to clutch at straws! :p I have no faith in the models at the moment, so much so that I am only looking at them every few days and thinking, hrmm that looks good, now whats happening on Big Brother. smile yes very sad I know but it just seems that the models have been so far off the mark with the last few cut off lows that they are almost laughable.

Though with the anti-cyclonic pessimism put aside there does seem to be some aggreeance with respect to a low developing some where of the west coast either midweek or about a week later depending on which chart you believe.

Regardless of the lack of good winter rain around Perth and the SW I am really enjoying the sunny warmth of our indian summer smile makes the cold mornings easier to bear smile

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#67135 - 04/06/2006 09:33 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
mikef Offline
Member

Registered: 19/03/2006
Posts: 74
you were so right and i hinted as much because the next run has it fine and sunny over perth so thats the models for you.

I agree with you re the models being all over the place lately and i wonder if it has to do with the very balanced scenario with a large moisture source off the nw coast and the possibility of the long wave troughs aplifying to drag it down has the models wandering if quite different directions. What are others thoughts on this?

I definatley are with you though on "wow wouldn't it be interesting if this by any chance happened" model gazing. I think that no model is spared at this stage with even ECM all over the place.


Cheers
Chop

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#67136 - 04/06/2006 10:46 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
lol the models have changed lol where did the low go laugh laugh laugh

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#67137 - 04/06/2006 12:36 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
i can't see any wet weather happening until the end of this month!
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#67138 - 04/06/2006 13:52 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Tim S Offline
Member

Registered: 10/06/2003
Posts: 1549
Yeah Chop, the models must be having a barmy at the moment becuase they dont agree on anything! laugh

Usually GFS and GASP vary slightly in there predicitions, but lately they have been so far apart it is like they are prediciting for a different year or something! The others like COLA and ECM arent that good either, choping and changing their predicitons from each and almost every run.

I would agree that it would have something to do with the unusaul length and persitance of the High pressure belt that that has been passing over us for god knows how long now. I have been looking at previous years that were similar to this year, 2003 comes to mind, where we had a very dry start to May and June and there was periods of maybe 2 weeks at the most where we would get these 'anti-cyclonic trains' passing after one another but nothing like what we have had so far.

I think it is related to sea surface temps somehow and the related atmospheric mositure. The LWT seems to be a very complicated beast and I would love to understand how it works and what influences its movement around the Southern Ocean, maybe those penguins down in Antartica have been up to something and are stuffing it up from the source! laugh smile

I have a feeling Tuesday nights 'front' will be a little better than expected though, OCF seems to be very cautious in its rain estimates of 1-2mm, I am thinking more like 5-10mm with isolated heavier falls aroud the SW.

On a completely different note, Nobody knows what has happened to NPMOC (http://www.yoko.npmoc.navy.mil/) lately? there site has been having troubles for about a week or two?

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#67139 - 04/06/2006 14:43 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
mikef Offline
Member

Registered: 19/03/2006
Posts: 74
Its working again.

I am archiving the sat photos on my site at

http://radar.strikeone.net.au/index.php?...=0&dateFinish=0

also you can select only a small cutout of it by selecting an area on the infared animations on my site as well at...

http://radar.strikeone.net.au/index.php?...=0&dateFinish=0

I find this useful if I only want to look at a storm and not download the whole 2 mb image to see one cloud!!

Cheers
Chop

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#67140 - 04/06/2006 15:39 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
Tim S Offline
Member

Registered: 10/06/2003
Posts: 1549
Very cool Chop! well done. Such a great site that and all for free, well mainly wink

How many days you archiving them for? 14 like the rest of the stuff? Looks like that site started working again yesterday, bout time too, I love seeing that high res pics, even when there aint much to see like the past few months.

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#67141 - 04/06/2006 20:34 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
mikef Offline
Member

Registered: 19/03/2006
Posts: 74
yep 2 weeks as is standard with the rest of the site.

Visible Sat Photos have been a bit unreliable of late just like the models in fact!!

I like your explanation of the penguins Tim!! It sounds like the well known "butterfly effect".

Maybe we need to be a little more in touch with the penguins and butter them up if we are going to actually see winter!!

But seriously I agree with your interpretation of sea surface temperatures and its affect. It is really the driving force of seasonal variation. And can really affect north south movement air which is the wobbles in the jetstream (rossby waves)and provide us with the weather at these lattitudes.

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#67142 - 05/06/2006 09:25 Re: Perth and WA day to day weather
mikef Offline
Member

Registered: 19/03/2006
Posts: 74
Gfs this morning is very interesting. Is it an aberation??? Over the last few days it has had the development of a low positioned more towards ECM until last night when it has it develop on the south coast and now has it develop over the sw of WA in the lastes run (4th Jun 18Z)...
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ausavnpanel1.html
and rainfall
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ausavnpanel4.html

It is an interesting change anyway and definately will provide more rain for wa if it eventually turns out to be true.

It is an ideal situation for us on the south coast as we may get sime quite high totals in the scenario put forward by gfs this morning.

ECM still has a low developing south of adelaide and has stuck fast to this for a few days.

GASP sort of follows ECM with a low developing south of adelaide.

JMA also agrees with this.

I am thinking that by the fact that GFS is out on its own that there will be a low develop South of Adelaide but I like to beleive that GFS is on the money simply because it provides the best weather outcome for us smile

Cheers
Chop

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