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#1493944 - 12/03/2019 17:32 NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5024
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
We haven't had an 'event' thread since January's Heat Extravaganza, but the approaching wet spell seems to warrant one.

Following a heat spike today, parts of NSW are in for several days of rain and showers, with thunderstorms possible on a number of days, especially the 14th and 15th. The event seems to be mainly coastal, with only a minor impact inland, but with hit or miss storms, you never know. Possible storms are forecast for the Central Tablelands West of the Divide on the 14th and 15th and for Canberra on the 14th.

The event seems set to focus on Sydney, with lesser rainfall totals on the coast North and South.

The end date is uncertain. An Easterly pattern looks set to continue beyond the forecast period, but most of the rain falls by Sunday 17th, so I'll end it there.

Some forecast totals(13-17th - rounded):

Code:
Sydney OH: 35 - 105 mm
Penrith  : 20 -  60
Gosford  : 25 -  80
Newcastle: 15 -  55
Cessnock : 10 -  40
Wollongong:25 -  80
Bathurst :  3 -  10 
Canberra :      < 5


At the lower end, the totals look quite modest. It might be the luck of the draw, find yourself in the path of a storm or a rain train and get a big total, others nearby miss out.

Someone might wish to comment on storm chances.


Edited by Seabreeze (22/03/2019 18:42)
Edit Reason: extended date

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#1493954 - 12/03/2019 18:12 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2982
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Latest EC has a rather large downgrade from the last few runs, hope we haven't put the mockers on it! Still, there will be some rain and hopefully storms round with those soupy SST.

Worst case is we get days of drizzly overcast crap with little to show for it.

Wait and see as always...
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Lane Cove PWS - Dee Why PWS

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#1493962 - 12/03/2019 18:31 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1987
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
I just hope the event, if it happens,all falls over the Hunter,and 40kms inland.Bring it on.
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1493969 - 12/03/2019 19:01 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Given the downgrades of late Iíll be happy if it happens.

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#1493974 - 12/03/2019 19:33 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 737
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Can see some towers to my SE, looking good already.

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#1493977 - 12/03/2019 19:40 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Plenty of dark bases here....hopefully they amount to something more than the usual pizzle.

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#1493978 - 12/03/2019 19:49 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5483
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
It might be the luck of the draw


I will have two tickets please? grin

In all seriousness lets hope it comes to fruition, I will be happy with another 20mm.
_________________________
Rainfall
2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 302.7mm
2019 YTD - 631.8mm

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#1493979 - 12/03/2019 19:50 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6390
Loc: Dural
Radar is showing "some" potential in the latest frames.
Have some faith Kino!!!

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#1493980 - 12/03/2019 19:55 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 737
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Kino
Plenty of dark bases here....hopefully they amount to something more than the usual pizzle.
]

Kino mate the Illawarra cleans up in Rainfall totals with E or NE flows.

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#1493981 - 12/03/2019 19:58 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
We shall see. No harm in hoping. But given we had our driest year on record last year and are already 200mm behind average, Iím sceptical.

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#1493984 - 12/03/2019 20:03 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7364
There was some nice vertical development to the south riding that southerly so I'm not surprised to see some stormy showers popping up on radar.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1493988 - 12/03/2019 20:07 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Andrew-A Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/10/2011
Posts: 251
Loc: Copacabana NSW
I bet that this system comes off with my older brothers for $150 a peice last night. that 150mm will be collected between a 96hr period Ending Monday 11pm. Based from my own personal achievements on 7 day out forecasting of major events from the past 5 years like the pasha bulka ECL and more localised events.
Our Conditions are If this total is not collected between north of manly, or south of toukley I loose! So Come Dance with me! ⛈

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#1493991 - 12/03/2019 20:10 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6390
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Kino
We shall see. No harm in hoping. But given we had our driest year on record last year and are already 200mm behind average, Iím sceptical.


And that can't change any time to being wetter than average? Or even maybe getting your 200 mm's back?
I'm not getting my hopes up either. I'm 35 km's inland, so chances are I'll get less than others, as the BOM forecast this arvo.


What I hope for is that everyone who needs rain, gets it. I'm not one of those, although a handy 20 mm's over the next 3-4 days wouldn't hurt.


Edited by Homer (12/03/2019 20:12)

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#1493992 - 12/03/2019 20:11 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Andrew-A]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5483
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Andrew-A
I bet that this system comes off with my older brothers for $150 a peice last night. that 150mm will be collected between a 96hr period Ending Monday 11pm. Based from my own personal achievements on 7 day out forecasting of major events from the past 5 years like the pasha bulka ECL and more localised events.
Our Conditions are If this total is not collected between north of manly, or south of toukley and/or not at all I loose! So Come Dance with me! ⛈


You're a brave man, I could nearly have a piece of that!! But knowing what your area is like, its likely it will happen!!

Good luck.
_________________________
Rainfall
2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 302.7mm
2019 YTD - 631.8mm

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#1493993 - 12/03/2019 20:12 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Hope it doesnít involve nudity as you may want to wear plenty layers of clothes...

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#1493997 - 12/03/2019 20:18 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7364
The Southern Highlands is one place that badly needs rain. The farms are pretty dry and you can tell how bad it is because the deciduous trees started turning about 2 weeks ago which is months too early.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1493998 - 12/03/2019 20:23 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: EddyG]
Andrew-A Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/10/2011
Posts: 251
Loc: Copacabana NSW

Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: Andrew-A
I bet that this system comes off with my older brothers for $150 a peice last night. that 150mm will be collected between a 96hr period Ending Monday 11pm. Based from my own personal achievements on 7 day out forecasting of major events from the past 5 years like the pasha bulka ECL and more localised events.
Our Conditions are If this total is not collected between north of manly, or south of toukley and/or not at all I loose! So Come Dance with me! ⛈


You're a brave man, I could nearly have a piece of that!! But knowing what your area is like, its likely it will happen!!

Good luck.

Cheers eddy Iím semi feeling you but my gut is going for it. Likewise to yourself, we really need the first rain periods Thursday AM to begin drawing moisture from seal rocks east insted of broken bay North sydney! But where all quiet thirsty so best of luck to all!

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#1493999 - 12/03/2019 20:26 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Kino]
Andrew-A Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/10/2011
Posts: 251
Loc: Copacabana NSW
Just money they have no use to see me naked again.
Itís just a lot of fun for me

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#1494000 - 12/03/2019 20:27 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Lol ďagainĒ 😂😂😂😂

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#1494002 - 12/03/2019 20:30 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I like the way you can track the moisture on radar as it pushes inland as the southerly wraps more easterly

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