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#1494005 - 12/03/2019 20:32 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Kino]
Jac0b Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/12/2018
Posts: 144
Whether there's 100mm of rain or 10mm of rain in a certain area; one thing's for certain: much cooler and welcome March temps for east NSW.

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#1494006 - 12/03/2019 20:36 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Andrew-A Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/10/2011
Posts: 251
Loc: Copacabana NSW
A few chunky showers beginning to ride the southerly now. Ill be pretending GFS doesnít exist for a day or so now with the latest update 😀

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#1494008 - 12/03/2019 20:38 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Spitting here now - here comes the pizzle

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#1494010 - 12/03/2019 20:41 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
GFS is atrocious as is EC....but ECD is great as is CMC and TWZ which says to me that this event may be nothing more than a few showers. But given how wrong models have been of late...anything could happen.

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#1494016 - 12/03/2019 21:16 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8802
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Originally Posted By: Kino
We shall see. No harm in hoping. But given we had our driest year on record last year and are already 200mm behind average, Iím sceptical.


Record dry is usually followed by record wet so why would you be sceptical?

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#1494017 - 12/03/2019 21:21 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Stormy3 Online   happy
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1988
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Record dry is usually followed by record wet so why would you be sceptical?because this dry has lasted a lot longer before breaking,but it has to break before long,probably when it does,there will be a huge rain event,we will need it, hopefully inland as well.
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1494021 - 12/03/2019 21:25 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Long Road Home]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
Originally Posted By: Kino
We shall see. No harm in hoping. But given we had our driest year on record last year and are already 200mm behind average, Iím sceptical.


Record dry is usually followed by record wet so why would you be sceptical?


Well, thatís assuming weíre at the end of the cycle and if that was the case models would be far more bullish than they are.

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#1494028 - 12/03/2019 22:25 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Morham Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 149
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Monday forecast for Penrith on weatherzone has >80mm. I have never seen that before. Usually it is a range.

Anyway, these predictions have been flip flopping all week. Just need some watery stuff from the sky.

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#1494032 - 12/03/2019 22:50 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Hope you guys get it, you sure deserve it...

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#1494047 - 13/03/2019 02:49 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5506
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Still quite mild this morning considering the southerly arrived a few hours ago, currently 23c.
A few showers are starting to show up on the radar, but they are popping up more inland rather than drifting in with the southerly.
_________________________
Rainfall
2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 302.7mm
2019 YTD - 631.8mm

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#1494050 - 13/03/2019 07:46 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I heard some moderately heavy rain during the night. That seems to have been from a rain train that passed over a narrow track from about the Eastern suburbs to North of Terry Hills, where there were a few falls over 10 mm, including it City. Elsewhere, falls were under 5 mm and mostly confined to the coastal strip from South of Port Macquarie to Moruya.

There was a nice sunrise as the rising sun broke through a gap in the cloud deck. That might have been one of the few glimpses of the sun we get in the next few days. The picture didn't really come out.

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#1494055 - 13/03/2019 08:13 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2202
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Worst case is we get days of drizzly overcast crap with little to show for it.

And that is what we have this morning. My goodness. Whodathunk?

I note that, yet again, Obs Hill seems to be focal point of some strange magnetic rain train attractor. The number of times it has lead the pack with rainfall is statistically anomalous.
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PWS
AWEKAS
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#1494060 - 13/03/2019 09:23 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: kizz]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: kizz
...I note that, yet again, Obs Hill seems to be focal point of some strange magnetic rain train attractor. The number of times it has lead the pack with rainfall is statistically anomalous.

I've often noted that. The North Shore is a cloud and rain magnet - that would be orographic, with elevations ranging from 100m near Chatswood up to 250m North of Hornsby. I think the CBD, just to the South, gets some increased rain from that. Also, I've wondered if the CBD itself, with all of its tall buildings, acts like a mini-Mountain range. In addition, maybe there's something about cities that increases rainfall - a bubble of warmer air?

There are still showers about on the coastal fringe - they're hardly moving. They don't look heavy but might build up some decent totals.

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#1494062 - 13/03/2019 09:30 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
May need to extend the dates and include the prospect of our first true ECL for the season if EC comes off. EC far more bullish overnight, GFS not interested BUT does prog the first major cold change at the end of it's Ext-Unicorn-Run

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#1494063 - 13/03/2019 09:31 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3346
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
In Shellharbour last night we had another dust shower, or was it just a rearrangement of the existing dust on car?

At one stage yesterday evening there appeared to be a juicy shower stuck right over Barren Grounds - which is also the wettest part of the Illawarra.

Bellambi score 4mm overnight, but Albion Park a big fat 0mm
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1494068 - 13/03/2019 10:36 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: ozthunder]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: ozthunder
In Shellharbour last night we had another dust shower, or was it just a rearrangement of the existing dust on car?

At one stage yesterday evening there appeared to be a juicy shower stuck right over Barren Grounds - which is also the wettest part of the Illawarra.

Bellambi score 4mm overnight, but Albion Park a big fat 0mm


We had some decent stuff around 11pm where it was quite heavy for a while. Guess 7 - 10mm overall looking at the creek nearby.

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#1494071 - 13/03/2019 10:50 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 1129
Loc: Killara
Hopefully this pattern gets rid of the bloody dust. I have a new car, OCD is still strong with keeping it clean and the dust is not helping!

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#1494072 - 13/03/2019 10:56 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Kino]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3346
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: ozthunder
In Shellharbour last night we had another dust shower, or was it just a rearrangement of the existing dust on car?

At one stage yesterday evening there appeared to be a juicy shower stuck right over Barren Grounds - which is also the wettest part of the Illawarra.

Bellambi score 4mm overnight, but Albion Park a big fat 0mm


We had some decent stuff around 11pm where it was quite heavy for a while. Guess 7 - 10mm overall looking at the creek nearby.


Its really dry in Southern Illawarra now, any grass growing on sand is brown. Went for a surf at Warilla after work and not a single green piece of grass in the park.

So far today the sky and cloud cover has just got lighter and lighter, still full overcast.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1494077 - 13/03/2019 11:22 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Jimi]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2984
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: Jimi
Hopefully this pattern gets rid of the bloody dust. I have a new car, OCD is still strong with keeping it clean and the dust is not helping!


The novelty has already worn off for me, still haven't washed it since all the dirt road driving on Kangaroo Island. Poor thing not looking much better than the below shot from January!

_________________________
My WX Stations

Lane Cove PWS - Dee Why PWS

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#1494088 - 13/03/2019 13:09 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2984
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Some grunt in those incoming showers with 52mm at Mona Vale already!
_________________________
My WX Stations

Lane Cove PWS - Dee Why PWS

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