Page 97 of 99 < 1 2 ... 95 96 97 98 99 >
Topic Options
#1493563 - 08/03/2019 18:58 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7978
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
At his time of the year a prognosis chart like this would have Petros all excited!:



.....but no moisture to feed it other than mildly warmer than average SST in the Tasman - will ship off to tease NZ.

But, ....nice to see that a cut-off can still be created down this way. Been a long time!

Top
#1493846 - 11/03/2019 18:54 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7978
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Other than a bit of drizzle around for some of Vic southern areas over next few days, .....nothing much of interest looming for Vic over the next 8 days if GFS proves to be correct frown

Top
#1493887 - 12/03/2019 09:20 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2845
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Australia looks like be big Trouble luck of tropical rain over summer for SE QLD, NSW, VIC and SA.

IF no rain anytime soon from now to June winter....
As dry winter is likely bring massive cold nights and less rain for Northern Australia and South half of Australia only get frontal rain easy..

WE need switch back to La Niña but flooding is terrible.

Top
#1493931 - 12/03/2019 15:53 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 301
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Way too much heat up North & looks to be building up again. It looks as though it's heading this way, thoughts anyone?
_________________________
Wunderground

Top
#1493975 - 12/03/2019 19:35 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Weather_Viewer]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: Weather_Viewer
Way too much heat up North & looks to be building up again. It looks as though it's heading this way, thoughts anyone?


I'm a mere amateur WV ... Around 21st March looks "interesting" but the tropics factors are widely varying btw the models (though all seem to predict activity) so all the models seem to be "havin' a bob each way".

The prospects of rain are grim and sparse ...I for one certainly hope that if we can't have rain , then we have a long becalmed period through the rest of the month ... the prospect of hot northerlies with 100K+ hectares of fires in the eastern ranges is not good.


Edited by ThunderBob (12/03/2019 19:36)

Top
#1494255 - 14/03/2019 15:00 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2845
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hot weather returns seem late season shifted....Sat 31c, Sun 32c, Monday 33c, Tuesday 35c Wednesday 36c, Thursday 33c then cool change for Northern Country..

Top
#1494353 - 14/03/2019 18:54 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7978
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I'm heading up to Narooma & Merimbula for a break next week onwards. That should create an ECL and invoke the Autumn break going by my past record of trips up that way this time of the year smile

Top
#1494387 - 14/03/2019 20:22 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Enjoy your travel, P but ...

What's your take on the ECL (or EC disturbance) brewing atm? Even the most enthusiastic model - EC -10-day is only tentative. Thoughts?

Listening to the BoM forecaster from Sale RAAF Base this morning and he described EC as the most accurate of the models for this type of event/eastern Gippsland. Thoughts?

Top
#1494430 - 14/03/2019 21:34 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2845
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Enjoy Petros seem u see something different over there is rain and storms ...while inland to west dry nothing.

Top
#1494548 - 15/03/2019 14:24 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7978
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Going by this mornings model runs, if Narooma on Monday morning is wet with howling SE'ly then EC predicted the ECL best, if it's wet with moderate easterly, then GFS did a good job with predicting an Easterly Dip for S NSW.

....either way looks like I'll have to pack a book or two!

Re models, I reckon GFS picks out the severe weather system synoptics better/earlier than EC - for SE Vic only!, the EC closer to the event seems to be good at the rain totals. About 40% of the time, I reckon both fail with their prediction from say, 6 days ahead of a pending significant weather event.

Top
#1494639 - 15/03/2019 18:58 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7978
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest AccR showing an ECL edging down the NSW E Coast on Monday morning:



Not sure that it will impact SE Vic, but nice to see that one can exist again despite this drought.

Top
#1494752 - 16/03/2019 11:52 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: chasers addict]
mianfei Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/03/2019
Posts: 4
Having a look at the current synoptic setup, I have noticed that the subtropical anticyclone is well to the south of Tasmania.

That is telling and alarming. If we are seeing the subtropical high pressure belt as far south as 50°S at any time – but especially so near the autumn equinox – it suggests that rainfall patterns are starting to catch up with the expansion of the Hadley Cell poleward since the middle 1960s.

Synoptic and upper atmospheric data show that the poleward edge of the southern Hadley Cell has expanded by around eight degrees – from 27-28°S to 35-36°S – vis-à-vis the middle 1960s. One consequence has been a decline in runoff into Perth’s urban dams from 350 gigalitres (median 260 gigalitres) to 60 gigalitres since 2010. Only one year between 1882 (before Perth’s dams were built but I have used Perth rainfall data to guesstimate inflows back to 1876 had the dams existed) and 1978 saw inflows under 60 gigalitres, but 2010 saw a mere 11 gigalitres, less than the average daily inflow in July 1926, June 1945, August 1945 and July 1946.

What is alarming is that the poleward shift of the Hadley Cell would suggest much more rapid declines in rainfall and runoff than those noted in the previous paragraph. If all winter climate belts had shifted eight degrees poleward, Perth’s MJJA rainfall would have declined by 80 percent vis-à-vis the middle 1960s. The actual decline in MJJA rainfall has been 30 to 35 percent.

If this week’s weather be any guide, it is quite probable that this year will see rainfalls in southeastern Australia far below the record lows of 1967, 1982 and 2006.

For about two decades now, I have feared a day when Melbourne’s annual rainfall consistently falls far below the 1967 record low of 332 millimetres. With only 33 millimetres in the first quarter – and none forecast up to at least next Friday – I am feeling surer and surer that Melbourne (and all bar the far east of Victoria) is rapidly moving into the core of the subtropical arid belt.

If my fears are true, Australia will need to radically alter its urban and land-use planning. Coping with annual rainfall 20 percent or less of yhat observed before anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will require radical technological advances and even more radical sacrifices from the big land and mining interests who are (or very nearly are) the globe’s largest culprits for man-made greenhouse emissions.

Top
#1494753 - 16/03/2019 12:05 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2845
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like thunderstorms for East Victoria all long coast NSW to SE QLD Friday 22nd then wild cold front hit Victoria in strong southerly winds by Monday 25th. Still too early charts updates.

Top
#1494827 - 16/03/2019 18:54 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7978
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Mianfei, agree that the high at 1029 hPa circa southern tip of NZ is anomalous.

However, it should assist with ECL's over Aus SE sector should they spin up?

Top
#1494965 - 17/03/2019 11:32 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks P, will be watching ... but I don't feel anything but very far east Gippsland will get anything that matters. Enjoy your books!

Interesting ideas Mianfei.

Feelings growing, in Aust, USA and elsewhere, that the chances of a major El Nino are getting high.

Top
#1495030 - 17/03/2019 17:05 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
AnnerleyX1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2013
Posts: 79
I'm coming down to Melbourne for the week from QLD, and I was looking forward to some cooler weather, but the forecast for the next 7 days there just looks like the middle of summer! 27-31 every day, nights in the high teens. I know warm days can happen super late in the hot season, but is a whole week of weather like that normal this late in the year?

Top
#1495041 - 17/03/2019 17:58 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7978
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Victoria often has 5-6 day "Indian Summers" March into early April Anneley, enjoy your visit! - welcome. ....and make sure you post your observations into the Vic threads! wink

Top
#1495052 - 17/03/2019 18:41 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7978
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hopefully some areas in Vic's SE can get a bit of easterly drizzle from the SE NSW low pressure system developing out that way.....



Going to be a damp Narooma when Petros arrives there tomorrow arvo I guess....


Edited by Petros (17/03/2019 18:44)

Top
#1496441 - 28/03/2019 11:35 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2845
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like East side from SE Victoria all along to Queensland rain with trough and most inland West is dry loser. We only had 48mm for 3 months is terrible for Northern Country of Victoria.

Top
#1496453 - 28/03/2019 14:47 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 572
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
Be thankful for the 48mm, I've only had 13mm for the year to date.

Top
Page 97 of 99 < 1 2 ... 95 96 97 98 99 >


Moderator:  Lindsay Knowles, stormygirl 
Who's Online
4 registered (RC, Purnong, Ronfishes, 1 invisible), 61 Guests and 1 Spider online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
poida84
Forum Stats
29935 Members
32 Forums
24151 Topics
1525542 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image