Page 3 of 8 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 >
Topic Options
#1486357 - 22/01/2019 20:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3115
Loc: Tweed Heads
JTWC has posted an INVEST for this potential TC. INVEST 94s
---------
--(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1S 127.0E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
PARTIAL 220151Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
TURNING WITH CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE
AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE
TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA WITH
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/abioweb.txt


Edited by crikey (22/01/2019 20:17)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1487121 - 26/01/2019 12:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: crikey]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1018
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
This from JTWC. TC 11S is Riley.

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.6S 90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 389 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251515Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE CENTER AND
SCATTERED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. A 251514Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH PRIMARILY 20-25 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND 30-35 KNOT WINDS LOCATED ON THE
PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSIFICATION TO
WARNING CRITERIA LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH TC 11S IN THE LATER TAUS THAT COULD CAUSE
A TRACK SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//


Edited by Hailin (26/01/2019 12:17)
Edit Reason: added info

Top
#1492803 - 01/03/2019 21:33 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 224
Ens are sniffing atleast two more tc's for the NW. EPS atm thinks one maybe a possible threat. Climo suits this suggestion.
https://imgur.com/U4o1lh7
[img]https://i.imgur.com/U4o1lh7.png?1[/img]
https://imgur.com/fF1RN6k
[img]https://i.imgur.com/fF1RN6k.png?1[/img]

Top
#1492811 - 02/03/2019 00:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3820
Loc: Broome

Hopefully one comes close and gives us a few downpours in the next couple of weeks .

Need something to happen ,its about as boring as batshit at the moment.

Need to get our mojo back otherwise its going to be along dry season...
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

Top
#1492914 - 02/03/2019 19:47 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 224
https://imgur.com/j8Goyvr
00z's
https://imgur.com/LKuLxQT

First hint from the ec deterministic's of a low dropping down from the equatorial trough as-per ens. Worth watching the ens trends.


Edited by vorts (02/03/2019 19:48)

Top
#1493323 - 06/03/2019 16:48 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 224
Ascat sampled a low pressure today. The models had been showing this is where the low would spawn from. It is very weak atm and
its obviously already closed off by the westerlies on the scat.

[img]https://imgur.com/uOQbP4B[/img]
https://imgur.com/uOQbP4B

Top
#1493331 - 06/03/2019 17:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3115
Loc: Tweed Heads
Hi 'vorts' I remember you were awaiting an MJO pulse in this region. Looks like it has arrived or is arriving?
ACC g forecasting a small tropical low to form north of Darwin on ' the 9th March. Intensifies , sunday, Monday.
A very small low but ACC r suggesting Monday 11th likely to be an area of investigation. INVEST.
Tracks SW down the WA NW coast Tuesday.
Positioned in a surface trough on Tuesday as an elongated double cored low. Something of interest for the folks in WA

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1493336 - 06/03/2019 18:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 76
Loc: Jingili Darwin
This is Intersting,EC and GFS keep pushing it to the west on every forecast but the formation over the taninbar Islands makes for a curious beginning

Top
#1493466 - 07/03/2019 21:03 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: vorts]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 224
Originally Posted By: vorts
Ascat sampled a low pressure today. The models had been showing this is where the low would spawn from. It is very weak atm and
its obviously already closed off by the westerlies on the scat.

[img]https://imgur.com/uOQbP4B[/img]
https://imgur.com/uOQbP4B


The low north of joseph bonaparte gulf is one of interest atm. The low on the ascat may drift NTH and loop . Its to early atm to know @ what point if it will be dropping south GFS thinks
its a GOC storm?. Atm i think maybe its a NW threat.

https://imgur.com/fTUyb8v
The two lows L should go west R is the possible threat later on.

https://imgur.com/6vkCnJo
EPS thinks where it forms will be key as to a NW or GOC system.


https://imgur.com/rA7ACgV EC probs for formation

https://imgur.com/XlqYkUR
GFS ens atm are weighted to the NW with some ens members in the GOC.

Top
#1493591 - 09/03/2019 08:24 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 224
As expected the low of interest drifted north. It haw now been
tagged by JTWC as 90S INVEST
https://imgur.com/LLDNrFW

[img]https://imgur.com/LLDNrFW[/img]


Edited by vorts (09/03/2019 08:27)

Top
#1493604 - 09/03/2019 11:16 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Interesting days ahead. Been so light on this season so hopefully we see some good development and at least storms with this one.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

Top
#1493612 - 09/03/2019 13:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3820
Loc: Broome

Been predicted to be a big sucker as it will have premium ingredients to feed on while it further develops .

How close its get will on depend on the timing of its movement towards the coast with upper level trough being the X factor .

Anyway early days but something to keep an eye and hopefully get excited about especially as its been a almost dead TC season to date on the West Coast..
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

Top
#1493638 - 09/03/2019 19:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 224
Cyclone ens atm think 90S maybe threatening by next weekend.
Both EPS and GEFS have members that are just-off shore or land-falling 90S. Mid-week should be a decent time to check if ens are verifying. If they are, then look @ the deterministic modelling.

https://imgur.com/iakXJxV

https://imgur.com/MQVJyF9

Top
#1494142 - 13/03/2019 19:10 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 224

Top
#1494196 - 14/03/2019 09:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: vorts]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1018
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 5:28 am WST on Thursday 14 March 2019
Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Savannah has formed and lies 100 kilometres north of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. The system will pass close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands today, bringing heavy rain and squally winds.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
The Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
Watch Zone
None.
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Savannah at 3:30 am CCT:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 11.3 degrees South 96.7 degrees East, estimated to be 100 kilometres north of Cocos Island.
Movement: south southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Savannah, category 1, is expected to continue to move towards the south-southwest and gradually strengthen during the next few days. It will pass close by to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands during Thursday morning.

Top
#1494469 - 14/03/2019 23:21 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3820
Loc: Broome
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0710 UTC 14/03/2019
Name: Tropical Cyclone Savannah
Tropical Cyclone Savannah was located using VIS, Scatterometry and microwave
imagery [TC_SSMIS 14/0031UTC].
Savannah is continuing to move generally towards the southwest due to a mid
level ridge to the east and an upper trough to the south. The system has passed
to the west of the Cocos [Keeling] Islands. Sustained gales are no longer
expected on the Islands, however, strong and squally northerly winds may occur
during the afternoon before easing during the evening. The peak gust recorded
was 43 knots at 2135 UTC.

Over the weekend, the system is forecast to move towards the west southwest as a
mid level ridge builds to the southwest and an upper level trough passes to the
south. Savannah is forecast to reach category 2 intensity on Saturday as shear
is forecast to remain low, though this could occur as early as Friday evening.
There is potential for Savannah to reach category 3 intensity from late Saturday
to Monday with improved poleward outflow. There is potential for dry air to wrap
around the periphery over the weekend and into next week. It is unclear whether
this will impact the intensity as there is uncertainty surrounding the
likelihood of this dry air being ingested into the system.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

Top
#1494472 - 14/03/2019 23:37 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3820
Loc: Broome

TC Savannah sitting close to Cocos Islands a few hours ago.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

Top
#1494515 - 15/03/2019 10:39 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3820
Loc: Broome

TC Savannah may get to cat 2 tomorrow but heading out to the southwest and keep going away from the mainland.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

Top
#1494542 - 15/03/2019 13:52 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3820
Loc: Broome

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:46 am WST on Friday 15 March 2019
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Savannah (Category 2) was located at 6:30 am CCT [8:00 am
AWST] near 13.5S 95.2E,
that is 230 km southwest of Cocos Island and moving south southwest at 9
kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Savannah continues to move towards the southwest, further away
from the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Savannah is expected to intensify over open
water and not directly affect the Islands or affect the WA mainland.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

Top
#1494546 - 15/03/2019 14:06 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Captured Savannah last night. I'll get another tonight. I've rotated the image 110 degrees CW.


Top
Page 3 of 8 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 >


Who's Online
5 registered (Ronfishes, Homer, Manly, 2 invisible), 64 Guests and 1 Spider online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
poida84
Forum Stats
29935 Members
32 Forums
24151 Topics
1525542 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image