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#1494486 - 15/03/2019 07:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 907
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
This mornings view of AccG and GFS 12Z model runs is hinting at 5 day totals over 100 mm for areas between Toowoomba to Ipswich. Hope that comes off because the Lockyer Valley really needs a drink and dams have been empty their since about 2014. Probably won't be enough to get much water in to the dams but a good drink would still be welcome.
Some other models though are more pessimistic for the Lockyer valley areas but still showing some decent rain for that area.

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#1494487 - 15/03/2019 07:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2666
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Very nice shots PlumbBob.

Today is S day. On the 13/03 in the day to day weather thread I thought that Friday had the best setup I had seen for some time. To me I could see from the modelling a nice clear dry line with a photogenic storm front instead of the cloudy messy storms we have had for a while although some of those days still produced a nice shelf cloud or 2.

I am in agreement with Crickey and to me the radar should fire up out west around 1030- 1200. No cloud this morning which had me a little concerned with last nights storms possibly lingering around. But at 0530 it was clear, a max of around 32°C, and now it is a wait for the sounding to see the dynamics in the atmosphere if it is going come together.

Tomorrow and Sunday should continue but it at this stage appears to be back to cloud ,showers and embeded storms. But still I will take what ever happens, I am glad some of you got some storm action. Nothing to big besides light showers, small rumbles and some flashes of sheet or intra cloud lightning up this way.

Have a great day, hope it all pulls together and happy chasing, vantage points, radar watching or photo snapping everyone.

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#1494490 - 15/03/2019 08:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 116
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
Areas around Warwick faired better than Warwick itself last night. In north-east Warwick less than 1mm. Plenty of noise and bluster to our south and north but things didn't line up for the town area itself. Maybe Allora/Mt Marshall/ Willowvale as well as areas between Warwick and Killarney could have scored 10 - 20mm but very patchy. Clear skies here at the moment. Hoping for better outcomes today.

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#1494492 - 15/03/2019 08:24 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1911
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Nice photos Plumbob.Amazing detail with all the leaders.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.

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#1494494 - 15/03/2019 08:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5022
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE...15 MAR 2019 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE....24.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY.........84%
CURRENT DEW POINT........21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...W 2Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1011.8hPA
CURRENT VISIBILITY......30KM
CURRENT WEATHER.........2/8 cloud
RAIN SINCE 0900 THURSDAY...3.2mm

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.9C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....20.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...18.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....21C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1012.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 34kph at 1307
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Early evening thunderstorm Thursday.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11.4(160),Feb47.0(146),Mar253.8(130)YTD312.2(436)

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#1494495 - 15/03/2019 08:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 357
Loc: Tallai, QLD
PB, definitely a PB on those shots, awesome
DD
_________________________
Just here for the weather

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#1494496 - 15/03/2019 08:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: ozone doug]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2536
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
We'll see widespread rain with some heavy falls across SEQ today and tonight, but there is only a small window of opportunity for severe storms (other than heavy rain). It looks like storms forming out west quite early today around midday and push out toward the coast by mid-afternoon. I'm not confident they will majorly affect the coast until tonight. GFS going for a stronger, more inland seabreeze, which is why I think Access-R struggles to get the storms across the coast. Meanwhile EC just spreads rain signals across all of SEQ.

Tonight is a different story though. Looks like a band of rain moving up from the south and setting in over SEQ overnight before swinging back down toward the south into NE NSW. Very heavy falls are likely with this.

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#1494497 - 15/03/2019 08:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: signalman]
Sillybanter Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 55
Loc: Toowoomba
Yes from Toowoomba perspective we had 4mm here. Storms followed a familiar path yesterday northwest of Toowoomba into the South Burnett and Allora to Boonah Line. Hopefully today is a bit more widespread and they kick off further out.
Originally Posted By: signalman
Areas around Warwick faired better than Warwick itself last night. In north-east Warwick less than 1mm. Plenty of noise and bluster to our south and north but things didn't line up for the town area itself. Maybe Allora/Mt Marshall/ Willowvale as well as areas between Warwick and Killarney could have scored 10 - 20mm but very patchy. Clear skies here at the moment. Hoping for better outcomes today.

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#1494498 - 15/03/2019 08:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 990
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Love this tropical Weather this is much more like it.It was a cruddy looking sky around here yesterday evening but the lightning sure disappoint.Only light rain with it and nothing vicious but definitely exciting all the same.Keep it up Thor😄

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#1494499 - 15/03/2019 08:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5969



Agreed Nature’s Fury. Here’s some of my own thoughts I posted this morning:

For many (but not all) of you in SEQ, today/tonight still looks like shaping up to be the big one! Although it’s always possible that some of you may be unlucky and not get much, today/tonight (Fri) could see the most widespread outbreak of showers, thunderstorms, and rain areas that SEQ’s seen for some months.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if some locations copped flash flooding as well.

Activity may start developing earlier than usual (later in the morning or early afternoon) inland of the coast helped by increasing moisture and instability... before spreading to parts of the coast.
Some locations are also likely to get a severe storm with intense rainfall leading to flash flooding due to the increased moisture and wind profile aloft, large hail, or damaging winds.

During the overnight hours tonight into Saturday, although there’s also the possibility that some of you could experience further showers, storms, or periods of intense rainfall, if previous activity stabilises the atmosphere too much, the risk of this happening would be far less.

Important Note: While the possibility of widespread activity initiating too early today and resulting in less severe storms than expected.... or a squall line forming and reducing the risk of widespread large hail can’t be ruled out, these are simply what-if scenarios to consider and may or may not happen.

This map shows the forecast lightning flash density scenario from one of the models (ECMWF) via Windy using 4pm Fri as just one of the examples i.e. it doesn’t mean lightning won’t occur before or after this time in other areas.

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#1494500 - 15/03/2019 08:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
oldschool Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/03/2013
Posts: 25
Loc: Allora , QLD
We received 26mm here at the southern end of town in Allora,tanks loved it.

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#1494501 - 15/03/2019 08:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 135
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Would be seem to be a healthy NE feed of moisture coming in from a long fetch across the CS.

Is the extensive inland surface trough typical for this time of year?

How does the surface trough interact with the trough at 500hPa? Is it one of the triggers for convection to its east?
_________________________
Science is the only answer

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#1494502 - 15/03/2019 08:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Taylsy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2007
Posts: 1249
Loc: Pacific Pines, Gold Coast
36 mm in that storm last night here at Pacific Pines.
_________________________
Between the bush and the beach.
2019 YTD: 221 mm; 2018: 1,078 mm; 2017: 1,495 mm; 2016: 812 mm; 2015: 1,932 mm; 2014: 943 mm; 2013: 1,501 mm; 2012 1,682 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.

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#1494505 - 15/03/2019 09:49 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Aussiestormguy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 62
Loc: Allora
Had an extra 8 mm here overnight at Mount Marshall. 40 mm in total.


Edited by Aussiestormguy (15/03/2019 09:50)
Edit Reason: spelling

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#1494506 - 15/03/2019 09:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1192
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Great result out there for you ASG! I really enjoyed the lightning active storms from my area. We had constant rumbles from about 4pm onwards yesterday. A few of the storms that scooted by produced very close CG's. Unfortunately, CG's will not fill the tanks, or the dams for that matter.
We need a really good drop SW of town where the catchments are. As we are all well aware around here, this is not a favoured area for storms, like Allora or Killarney area.
Awhile back there was talk about moving the catchment or channeling the water from the normally storm prone areas mentioned into the dams, but nothing was ever initiated.
The chances are certainly there for much more activity around here over the next 8 days. In fact, the trend looks upward for us out here.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1494513 - 15/03/2019 10:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2666
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Ist storm of this system has fired off to the north at Proston as at 0904.
Reminds me of a few years back when they fired off early on a Sunday morning and hit Brisbane as a supercell around lunch causing BoM to answer a lot of Question as to why no warning was issued. Hit the markets somewhere in the Valley.

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#1494514 - 15/03/2019 10:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
whynot Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/10/2001
Posts: 548
Loc: Brisbane
Looked at the weather forecast. Just in the process of spreading out 20kgs of dynamic lifter on the lawn, plus 5kg of super green fertiliser. Lawn's been mowed short, and 2cubic metres of top soil ordered for tomorrow. What could possibly go wrong?

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#1494516 - 15/03/2019 10:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Colin Maitland]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1241
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
colin , that was a saturday, and yep towers were going up from 9am. I recall it as we were at the young blokes cricket watching it come in at shaw park. the markets that got flogged were kelvin grove. was an old fashioned ripper storm without being too dangerous really. gazebos and 70k winds dont mix.

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#1494518 - 15/03/2019 11:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2666
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Yeah Big T thats it. I remember it was something along those lines as they quoted me in the article for highlighting a storm to the west and very early and BoM stating they had no idea what was happening. I think the answer given was that there was no one to watch the radar.

I am running around this morning and posted in haste, but once I get a chance I will try and pull the thread up. .

Now back on the go. My day has been turned upside down. Not going to what I was planning.

Cheers and thanks for that.

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#1494521 - 15/03/2019 11:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms, Showers and Rain Areas - 14th to 24th March 2019 [Re: Colin Maitland]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5969
Originally Posted By: Colin Maitland
Yeah Big T thats it. I remember it was something along those lines as they quoted me in the article for highlighting a storm to the west and very early and BoM stating they had no idea what was happening. I think the answer given was that there was no one to watch the radar.

Not sure where you got that from but that's never ever the case. Forecasters always monitor radar without exception particularly on days like those. The convective desk is also always manned by severe weather staff during the designated convective season and hours of the day.
One of the main issues with that day was because that storm intensified and reached STW criteria so quickly, there was very little lead time available to issue an STW. This is why I'm a fan of bringing back the thunderstorm advisories that we used to have some years ago which give an earlier heads-up of potential severe thunderstorm outbreaks.

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