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#1494468 - 14/03/2019 23:12 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3233
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Trough starting to push off the coast, activity will diminish pretty quIcky before returning again tomorrow PM, as the trough hangs around for the whole outlook period.

I think the mesovorticity we saw on Doppler before was our first ECL for the season.

Weekend looks super wet now with all models now winding up a true ECL that bombs Saturday and tracks south along the coast. If this comes off, and given how bullish models now are about it, we could be looking at 100 - 400mm anywhere from Port Stephens to Jervis Bay and south. Interesting weekend ahead. Winds don’t look that bad on the models as yet but they will depend on now the low bombs and where and now tightly wrapped it’ll be.

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#1494471 - 14/03/2019 23:36 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Andrew-A]
Jimi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 1094
Loc: Cammeray
Originally Posted By: Andrew-A
I bet that this system comes off with my older brothers for $150 a peice last night. that 150mm will be collected between a 96hr period Ending Monday 11pm. Based from my own personal achievements on 7 day out forecasting of major events from the past 5 years like the pasha bulka ECL and more localised events.
Our Conditions are If this total is not collected between north of manly, or south of toukley I loose! So Come Dance with me! ⛈


Is it any 96 hr period from the time of your post or is it the 96 hours ending 11pm Monday (i.e. it has just started half an hour ago)? If the former, you're already a winner

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#1494473 - 14/03/2019 23:46 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 637
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Picked up 49mm from the event so far quite a swimming start. A bit of flash flooding about in my area, but geez has it been long since we had an ECL in these parts June 2016 to be exact.

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#1494474 - 14/03/2019 23:54 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4873
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Those are some pretty impressive totals around Sydney, lots of sites over 50mm and Mona Vale Golf Club once again gets the prize with 121 mm. It must be one of the soggiest golf courses in the State. Chatswood built up a steady 30 mm over the evening, while Sydney OH was in a donut hole, just about the only Sydney site not to accumulate 10 mm.

------
Here's a short video of a nearby CG lightning bolt, estimated to be about 300 metres distant:

Close CG - Sydney March 14

Here are successive stills from the video - the main strike and the 'left over' trail:





Edited by Steve777 (14/03/2019 23:56)

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#1494478 - 15/03/2019 01:26 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Jimi]
Andrew-A Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/10/2011
Posts: 205
Loc: Copacabana NSW
Originally Posted By: Jimi
Originally Posted By: Andrew-A
I bet that this system comes off with my older brothers for $150 a peice last night. that 150mm will be collected between a 96hr period Ending Monday 11pm. Based from my own personal achievements on 7 day out forecasting of major events from the past 5 years like the pasha bulka ECL and more localised events.
Our Conditions are If this total is not collected between north of manly, or south of toukley I loose! So Come Dance with me! ⛈


Is it any 96 hr period from the time of your post or is it the 96 hours ending 11pm Monday (i.e. it has just started half an hour ago)? If the former, you're already a winner

Yes iv already won! Thanks Mona vale golf ⛳️
It is a 96hr period ending this Monday. that was an easy win. Could have brashly doubled that amount in hindsight

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#1494482 - 15/03/2019 06:45 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Edge]
slotmachine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/11/2007
Posts: 211
Loc: Newcastle
Originally Posted By: Edge
More fizz thn a can of coke !! Another hysterical non event !!


This aged well.

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#1494493 - 15/03/2019 08:27 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3288
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Only just got back phone and internet sometime early this morning. How I did not lose power is a miracle. Mount Warrigal where I live was peppered by close CG's for over 20 mins, the bang of one would fade to be replaced by another. House next door was struck and has no power. SES were crawling over it last night.

Best light show since Darling Downs 2011, but that was a different type of event.

Only downside for me was all close lightning was inside a blinding rain core and sheltering/watching from my veranda the visible bolts were minimal.

There are still a few thousand homes blacked out in Warilla.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1494503 - 15/03/2019 09:33 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3233
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Today is going to be a real mixed bag IF it comes off. Starting with cooler drier sw'erlies which swing around after lunch to the se and stay coolish but more moist and start to drive stream showers onshore as the trough retrogrades towards the coast again. Not sure we'll see anything like yesterday but some follow-up showers, especially inland, would be welcome.

Models have pushed back the ECL til Sun/Mon and pushed the impacts to Sydney and south. Looks a goer, and should be some great follow-up rain.

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#1494508 - 15/03/2019 10:00 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: ozthunder]
Jac0b Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/12/2018
Posts: 96
Excellent video Steve; usually I find it difficult to capture lightning with phone cameras.

Originally Posted By: ozthunder

Only downside for me was all close lightning was inside a blinding rain core and sheltering/watching from my veranda the visible bolts were minimal.


Yeah that was the problem in Parramatta too; tonnes of lightning and thunder, a few CG's but they were hidden in the rain bands so mostly is was super bright flashes scattered in the rain shafts every second or so.

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#1494512 - 15/03/2019 10:06 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 210
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Here's what my forecast looks like...upgraded! laugh poke

https://imgur.com/a/47FAA7I

http://www.city-data.com/forum/weather/2805150-weather-forecast-thread-ii-78.html#post54682666

If the outsider forum link (City-Data Weather) ain't allowed here, then feel free to remove it—I just can't post a proper image on WZ Forums, and the Imgur picture is rather blurred; the bastards always come out too bloody massive. whistle crazy
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1494517 - 15/03/2019 10:45 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5391
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Well that rain band moved up the coast and out to sea early this morning and just clipping parts of Port Stephens, Nelson Bay recorded 4mm, I recorded 2mm. A few flashes were visible way out to sea.
It's a grey cool looking morning, temp is about 22c and unless the sun makes an appearance it could struggle to reach its max.
_________________________
Rainfall
2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 24.7mm
2019 YTD - 60.8mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1494519 - 15/03/2019 11:02 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 713
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Winds getting quite gusty here. Completely overcast.

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#1494520 - 15/03/2019 11:06 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Sidney]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3233
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Sidney
Winds getting quite gusty here. Completely overcast.
same and bloody cold tbh! First hints at the wind shift now - stream showers running parallel to the coast still.

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#1494522 - 15/03/2019 11:08 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4873
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's a grey morning after early sunny breaks. Just looks and feels like a typical post-Southerly day. There are some chunky showers out to sea, marching Northwards parallel to the coast.

I think that today might be a 'rest day' for this event, except possibly for the coastal fringe. Once it gets going again it looks like it will be focused on the coast from about the Central Coast Southwards.

EDIT: here is the distribution of rainfall about Sydney in the 24 hours to 9:00 this morning.



Nothing for Newcastle or the Hunter unfortunately. We see the donut hole about the inner East and Western suburbs, a large area of 100+mm off the Illawarra and also another in remote country West of Camden - that would be in the Warragamba Catchment.



Edited by Steve777 (15/03/2019 11:15)

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#1494523 - 15/03/2019 11:11 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3288
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
From a technical POV yesterday was very interesting at Shellharbour. After work I noticed low cloud over the ocean off Shellahrbour, it was lifting vigously, you just knew there was a powerful updraft above. I went to Barrack Point with hopes of seeing a waterspout, cloud base was no more than 500m.

This offshore area developed into a nice storm and the anvil, mids and even rain at frst were heading SE (away). However at the same time there was a general strenthening of cloud growth to north and NW. For example not long after I arrived at the vantage point I could look directly up and see a slightly back sheared anvil and patchy clear sky. 15mins later and a fresh inky cloud base had replaced that view.

Meanwhile the storms out to sea kept plugging on new cells so strongly now that the line was propagating N/NNW quite quickly now. ( part of the mesovorticity that Kino mentioned). It was not just outflow driven. It all evolved so quickly from something that looked like it was just going to clip Shellahrbour to something far more vigourous.

I was wrong about calling only soft mushy hail, for the Illawarra it was probably correct call, but as we have seen often enough the Sydney basin is a different animal.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1494534 - 15/03/2019 12:12 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3233
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
That doppler confirms that Bellambi again missed most of the action - the local creek, usually a very good flash response gauge, broke its banks during the onslaught - I'd guess 50-65mm for Wollongong City easy.

Ozthunder - I think you watched the birth of a small ECL - and it's still sitting off the coast - am wondering if this is the vorticity EC has been tracking and that retrogrades over the weekend.


Edited by Kino (15/03/2019 12:13)

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#1494554 - 15/03/2019 14:30 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3233
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
SE'erlies now pushing up the coast and with them showers tending to rain looking at radar. They should be in the Illawarra by 4 and Metro by 5 looking at them.

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#1494560 - 15/03/2019 15:11 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5391
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Some heavy looking cumulus just offshore to my southwest, looks to be tracking this way.
It has been mostly sunny for the last four hours but it still didn't reach the expected maximum today, just goes to show how fresh that breeze is.
_________________________
Rainfall
2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 24.7mm
2019 YTD - 60.8mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1494580 - 15/03/2019 16:32 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6209
Loc: Dural
BOM have upped the ante again for the weekend and Monday.

Syd OH - 35 - 60 Sat.
- 30 - 60 Sun
- 35 - 80 Mon

Penrith - 30 - 50 Sat
- 20 - 50 Sun
- 30 - 50 Mon

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#1494590 - 15/03/2019 17:14 Re: NSW / ACT - Showers and Storms - March 13-23, 2019 [Re: Homer]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4873
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Yes, the heaviest rain of the event is ahead of us. It also looks like the thread needs to be extended by a day.

I didn't see any rain today. The cloud band that rolled in mid morning broke up somewhat from mid afternoon. The sun's now out with blowing low cloud.

The remainder of the event is still focused on Sydney, although Hunter totals have improved. Some forecast 3 day totals around our part of the world:

Code:
Sydney:       80 - 220
Penrith:      70 - 120
Bathurst:      0 -  30
Gosford:      50 - 120
Newcastle:    45 - 90
Cessnock:     40 - 90
Wollongong:  45 - 105



Edited by Steve777 (15/03/2019 17:16)

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