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#1499912 - 02/06/2019 12:09 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2193
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW


Rainfall above normal in May relieved seasonal shortages somewhat, and long-duration shortages slightly. It failed to prevent a new record rainfall shortage at 15 months (388 mm).
As the median rainfall total for 15 months is 796 mm, that is a shortfall of 408 mm.
To make up for that, we need not just normal rainfall, but eight months of extra rainfall above the normal amount.

https://climatebysurly.com/2019/05/31/may-2019-rain-gives-some-relief/

Sydney water managers are citing low reservoir levels as evidence of water shortage. That does not direcly relate to rainfall shortages that I am documenting.
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#1500175 - 04/06/2019 23:41 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2193
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
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Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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#1500866 - 19/06/2019 18:49 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2193
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
The contour graph above is one of a series that I have now put on a single blog post so they can all be compared:
https://climatebysurly.com/2019/06/18/rainfall-shortage-series-of-contour-plots/
Five of the contour graphs show the 2018-19 drought. One shows to 2002 drought and one the 1994 drought.
These are the only notable droughts at Manilla in the last half-century.
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#1501106 - 24/06/2019 10:53 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1282
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Certainly still a shortage, but at least we may fill up our water tank with this current event.
Hunter Water haven't imposed water restrictions yet, but are having a field day with no rain water available for a while now.

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#1501497 - 01/07/2019 18:16 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2193
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW


Not getting any better.
The record for a 15-month rainfall total set at 404 mm in 1912 has been broken four times in this drought. It stands now at only 90% of the 1912 value.

I will have to keep revising the percentile table until the record-breaking stops.

https://climatebysurly.com/2019/07/01/june-breaks-more-drought-records/
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#1502901 - 21/07/2019 18:43 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2193
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Drought worse.



This is a provisional graph, to catch the final deadline for posting to this forum. Even un-forecasted torrential rain in the next few days would hardly affect this graph.

At Manilla, most rainfall totals just got lower.
On current data, the rainfall totals will become the lowest ever registered here for six of the twenty-five chosen rainfall durations: 15-, 18-, 24-, 30-, 72- and 84-months.
At this date, only three of the chosen durations do not have serious rainfall shortages below the 10th percentile. They are: 1-month, 3-months and 360-months.
https://climatebysurly.com/
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#1502903 - 21/07/2019 19:11 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Hello SB.

Yes it doesn't look good.

The coast especially around Sydney had a wet June so everything seems fine here, but that rain didn't penetrate past the ranges, in fact it barely made it 40-50 km inland.

In any case, it does look like Manila has some catching up to do.

Should you wish, you could continue your Manila Rainfall thread in this forum on Ski.com.au: Ski.com.au Eastern & Marine

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#1502924 - 22/07/2019 10:15 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3983
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Most districts in inland northern NSW are sitting on lowest on record for a range of periods from 18 to 30 months. Not many records have been set for periods shorter than 18 months - the exceptional thing about this drought is getting two dry years in a row, with a third well under way, rather than the intensity of any individual year - although there are a few driest year-to-date on records in the Northern Tablelands and Queensland's Southern Downs.

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#1502926 - 22/07/2019 10:44 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Blair Trewin]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3346
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Most districts in inland northern NSW are sitting on lowest on record for a range of periods from 18 to 30 months. Not many records have been set for periods shorter than 18 months - the exceptional thing about this drought is getting two dry years in a row, with a third well under way, rather than the intensity of any individual year - although there are a few driest year-to-date on records in the Northern Tablelands and Queensland's Southern Downs.


Interview on ABC radio Illawarra last week of a Dairy Farmer at Moss Vale selling up and moving to Tasmania. Sited 5 years of poor rainfall and milk price.

Not mentioned but kind of hinted is the property being close to Sydney is likly to be brought up for a pretty penny by executive farmers from Sydney who will run a few beef cattle, but mainly retire to 'the land' ( as per Don Burke et al ).
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http://ozthunder.com

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#1502980 - 24/07/2019 11:48 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2193
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW


Current rainfall data for Manilla shows record low values again.
"Driest-ever" values shown include the driest and second-driest in the 1600-month record: those below the 0.1th percentile. Such values, shown in black, occurred at durations of 15-, 18-, 24- and 30-months in both June and July 2019.
Severe and serious shortages at durations shorter than nine months, which had gone by December 2018, returned in April and in July of 2019.

This is a local confirmation of what Blair has said. I suspect that the discrepancy, Manilla's recurring record values at 15-month duration, may mean simply that BoM has not tabulated data for that particular duration.


https://climatebysurly.com/
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Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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#1502983 - 24/07/2019 13:39 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 739
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Surly Bond what weather forum will you joining because i'm always quite fascinated at what you post. Would hopefully like to see God Bless a graph with many more blue areas.

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#1502993 - 24/07/2019 17:19 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2193
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Hi Ashes
I don't see any forum that can replace "weatherzone" as it once was. When I began to post here in 2003, it seemed that I could educate myself, and be educated by serious and lively discussion of climate and weather. Sometimes that worked. I asked what was the most authoritative source of ENSO data, and got some useful advice. We learnt a lot about thermometer screens, too.
The closure of the "weatherzone" climate change forums was an utter disaster from my viewpoint. Nearly all of those who might have commented usefully on my posts, or might have opened threads that I would like to post on, simply left.
I cannot object to the current decision to close all "weatherzone" forums. I respect the judgement that there is not sufficient interest to support them.
I see this as just another ripple in the tsunami of stupidity that is drowning us. Addiction to the trivia of "social media" makes people unwilling and finally unable to think seriously about anything at all. Sheep!
I will keep posting for the next few days because this forum is widely linked. That gives my posts three months more exposure on the internet.
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Data are cheap; information is expensive!

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#1502994 - 24/07/2019 17:22 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1444
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
It appears you have already made your mind up Surly but if you ever do reconsider you would be most welcome over at http://www.ausweatherforum.com/

Hope you get some desperately needed rain soon.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

https://www.ausweatherforum.com

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#1502996 - 24/07/2019 23:51 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 739
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Yh it seems i'll just bookmark your website then mate.

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#1502997 - 25/07/2019 00:46 Re: NSW rainfall shortage from May 2018 [Re: Surly Bond]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2193
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Complete record of droughts at Manilla NSW from 1884.



Red colour marks times when rainfall was in the lowest one percent of occurrences. The graph is novel, in that the beginning of drought is marked as well as the end.

There were just six great droughts lasting more than one year: 1902, 1911, 1940, 1946, 1965, 2018.
Very long droughts persisted for forty years from 1910 to 1950, then they ceased for the next forty years.
The pattern does not match a model of climate change that supposes that droughts have been getting (a) more frequent or (b) more extreme.

Details are in posts such as:
https://climatebysurly.com/2019/06/08/rain-shortage-jan-2000-may-2019/

You are welcome to comment there, Ashes.


Edited by Surly Bond (25/07/2019 00:49)
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