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#1497226 - 07/04/2019 08:10 2019 USA Severe Weather Season
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Time to get this one rolling again! Very keen to get back into the virtual world this year and pick out some more targets! Plenty of aussies heading over again so no doubt many more great pics shall flood through here.

The season as a whole has started well in terms of dynamics, very cold up top with a massive snow melt to occur plus floods galore near the E/NE part of NE and IA/MO. But strong closed lows so far, once the moisture comes in can see above average rainfall and more frequent large MCS like events charging the plains. Should be a good year! Keep safe all, targets to follow as see fit.

TS cool

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#1497229 - 07/04/2019 08:54 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2396
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Good work Rowland, been meaning to get this thread up and running.

Yes we are heading back for yet another season in a couple weeks time, will be there until the end of June this year so plenty of miles ahead of us no doubt. We'll certainly try and report back from time to time when things get interesting.

Certainly starting to look like potential is there for a vintage plains season this year with a much more progressive synoptic pattern already in place.

Here's to a big season ahead!
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#1497488 - 13/04/2019 19:53 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3346
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Virtual Target for Saturday 13/4/2019 USA ( Sunday morning here)

Potential nasty situation in Dixie Alley tomorrow (Sunday our time), potential for some long lived strong tornadoes. This area is deadly as cloud bases are often so low residents cannot clearly determine tornadoes until they are practically on top of them. Combine that with quite thick tree coverage and winding roads in parts and its a deadly combo.

Surface low over East Texas will have a LLJ (Low Level Jet) sucking in 70F plus dew points straight off the Gulf and into Texas/Louisiana border area.

The upper 500mb low is situation further NW (you need that offset between surface low and upper to have strong jets) The 500mb winds are plain scary ! 90 knot by 21Z.

My virtual target will be Alexandria, Louisana. Ideally I would like to be a little further north, but there are large forest areas. Alexandria gives me road options.

Be prepared however to drive as close to top speed limits as possible, this system will not hang around, you may get only one shot, or two and by dark action could be a lot further east.
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Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1497491 - 14/04/2019 02:55 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Really bad day coming up over LA chiefly, long-tracked and violent tornadoes a good chance. Super low LCL's absolute groundscrapers, could be multiple wedges and nasty multi-vortex tornadoes in this setup, trees, terrain as Michael mentions. Tough chasing with that plus the speed of it all. Massive high end dynamics, big shear, big moisture. It almost warrants a high risk, but maybe not quite.

Target a little more north purely to allow for some wiggle room on locking onto a tornadic supercell despite initiation likely quite a bit more SW, be very hard catching these from the S/SE side. I-20 corridor seems the safer bet, thinking atm Monroe to Rayville LA, good road options in all directions. Main target is the more discrete modes in the pre-frontal trough area, but main front will give another go later but prob more linear by then and harder to see. Warm front boundary and just south seems good bet as it reaches N half of LA.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (14/04/2019 02:56)

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#1497524 - 15/04/2019 08:37 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1928
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Sad news out of the US. 8 people killed in tornadoes on Sunday there.
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BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.

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#1497527 - 15/04/2019 10:01 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3346
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
I don't think there was any right or wrong targeting for the 13/4, pretty much all areas from East Texas to Mississippi saw severe storms and tornadoes. In hindsight I would have targeted East Texas as that was the last area where storms appeared discreet, by the time they rolled in Louisiana it was a blind mess - pretty much what myself and Ore Bund described
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Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1497621 - 18/04/2019 02:02 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yea was tough going picking a target, big area, no real capping and very low lcl's/big forcing so despite amazing shear and potential slop and mess can get in the way and to a degree it did but still some strong tornadoes all the same

Today a tricky one but thinking somewhere off the dryline in NE TX. Will go for Como TX hopefully they are fairly discrete down there.

TS cool

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#1497628 - 18/04/2019 09:37 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Models trended west/nw with each run after bed with lagging cold air so reviewed target be directly north of the DFW metroplex. Supercells starting to form now on the dryline.

Earlier the lesser capped warm front near Canadian/Higgins TX managed to put down an a clean elephant trunk...models held it linear but discrete modes are still ongoing.

TS cool

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#1497632 - 18/04/2019 11:34 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: ozthunder]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3346
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: ozthunder
I don't think there was any right or wrong targeting for the 13/4, pretty much all areas from East Texas to Mississippi saw severe storms and tornadoes. In hindsight I would have targeted East Texas as that was the last area where storms appeared discreet, by the time they rolled in Louisiana it was a blind mess - pretty much what myself and Ore Bund described


Sorry , last sentence what Thunderstruck described
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http://ozthunder.com

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#1498027 - 28/04/2019 11:53 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2396
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
First day of chasing for us today after taking our time getting over to the plains from LA.

Marginal type day today that probably overachieved given only modest dynamics and minimal surface moisture to play with but in any case we targeted the northern extent of the risk area in the Texas panhandle and were certainly not disappointed with a lovely little LP supercell wrapping up for us close to Vega, TX.


Texas Panhandle LP Supercell
by Orebound Images, on Flickr


Vega, TX LP Supercell
by Orebound Images, on Flickr

Will probably head south tomorrow, yet to decide but kind of want to stay in position for Monday/Tuesday so will likely give the Kansas triple point a miss.
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#1498033 - 28/04/2019 14:21 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5506
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Stunning images Orebound.
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Rainfall
2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 302.7mm
2019 YTD - 631.8mm

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#1498057 - 29/04/2019 01:25 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Some damn fine structure there mate! Lovely.

Yea things slowly starting to get going over there. Virtually I'll start a few targets again now, yesterday had mine around Matador to Paducah which would have been an ok starting point a took some large hail from a left split. Tornado confirmed SSE of there near Aspermont.

Today a bit dry again, LLJ has a crack but struggles to transport that moisture N enough. Weak lee low forms in E CO/W KS bit of warm front lifting N before cold front dives SE and cleans it all up into a linear MCS feature further E over KS later.

Two options, and given the day after is clearly down in SW TX I'd be more inclinded to play the dryline down in W TX for a very outside chance of a discrete supercell or two. Better CAPE and moisture down here but also more capping, most convective allowing models keep it all dry but a few pop up a nice storm. Up in KS some backed winds around the warm front look ok for some action but generally high based unless the moisture can get there in time to root lower.

KS Target area around Copeland KS with more cells up into NW KS but less tornado potential.

TX Target area around Spur TX. This could be blue skies or a massive discrete supercell so worth the risk.

Increasing signs ahead for some higher potential tues/wed as a better mid level low ejects from the west.

TS cool

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#1498097 - 30/04/2019 03:02 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well interesting day yesterday, far NW KS was the early pick with cells holding discrete whilst initially SW KS did indeed struggle with the dry air which was a concern. But into the evening the cells over NW KS shifted more ESE and gave chasers on the weaker higher based stuff near Dodge City etc a quick chance at something good so prob would have gone after that for a bit before correcting back south for today. The Spur option busted as expected, cap held on.

Today we have a slowing cold front, still diving south atm but where it stalls will be key. Dryline/warm front and cold front intersection should provide a good focal point for initiation, storms then becoming organised with staunch CAPE around 2500j/Kg. Half a chance of a tornado if the south/inflow side keeps clear, not a lot of activity otherwise so probably every man and his dog after it. Big hail a fair shot and probably some tidy structure.

Thinking around the Lenorah TX area atm but depends on where the front ends up... should initiate W-WSW of there at least.

TS cool

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#1498154 - 30/04/2019 22:59 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1740
Loc: Uleybury
Might tag along here to have a go at my targets as well as to learn from others
Only been following US weather more in the last few weeks so Ill a bit off with some but be a good learning curve for me whos learning Met

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#1498158 - 01/05/2019 04:38 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yesterday proved patience was key and sure enough a couple of supercells quickly formed on the dryline/cold front boundary on the triple point right in far SW TX west of Midland. They rooted down and basically hardly moved so would have slipped west from target to catch them fairly easily. But no tornado.

Today however is a much bigger and broader day with a whole multitude of target options all way from IL/IA on the warm front down to SW TX again on the tail of the dryline.

A decent mid level shortwave is ejecting across the central plains with strong uplift, at the sfc the stationary front is stalled across much of Central OK into N TX whilst later a nice LLJ will rip up from the S through the central south and eastern OK and N TX. A very broad warm sector with near extreme instability is present, minimal capping in some areas, stronger towards the dryline into TX. OK seems the balance is best atm, already a tornado in SE OK.

Target for me is around Waurika OK and down into Ringgold TX which has a good area of roads in all directions to maximise a chance to latch onto something. Anything interacting near the stationary front will have an enhanced local tornado potential, definitely could be one or two strong ones somewhere today for anything that remains discrete and very large hail to probably 3" with the extreme CAPE.

Good luck all.

TS cool

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#1498227 - 02/05/2019 04:17 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yesterday proved one of the better targets with a tornado confirmed just west of the boxed area so happy with that.

Today a tricky one, remnant boundary still lingering through OK/TX and also SW moving OFB shooting out from earlier cluster over S OK. Dryline down through C and W TX with front pushing down again and impulse aloft coming from SW. Lots of potential, monster CAPE but weaker shear than yesterday. Good focal point over N TX so thinking the best area for insecting boundaries is around the Seymour TX to Mabelle TX area, decent roads off in all directions as well and take it as it goes from there.

TS cool

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#1498253 - 02/05/2019 17:31 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Hey'guys' thanks for your efforts in posting.
Found something from strangesounds twitter account

https://twitter.com/Strange_Sounds

that l thought you may enjoy


https://twitter.com/Strange_Sounds/status/1123238394027552769

There are some other great spectacular snaps as well


Edited by crikey (02/05/2019 17:32)
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#1498291 - 03/05/2019 00:53 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
That is quite the spanker!!!

Did alright virtually yesterday, nice tornado just south of Seymour plus a general line of tornado warned supercells to the west moving east inching south as the day wore on.

Very quickly today further south again less shear still bit CAPE so messier. OFB shooting south but bends NW and quasi stat. Should initiate further NW near Sterling City then move SE with stuff forming off the OFB then ahead of it before all joins up. Still a tornado chance both early from discrete modes and again later as mature storms interacts with various boundaries old and new.

Target the Eden TX to Menard TX area and take from there again good roads in all directions. Not as confident about a tornado hattrick though today.

TS cool

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#1498337 - 03/05/2019 14:21 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: EddyG]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2396
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Stunning images Orebound.


Thanks Eddy.

Nice work keeping this thread ticking over Rowland and awesome forecasting there I might add! You need to get over here and put the theory to practice real soon!

I wish I had more opportunities to report back from over here but it's just been completely hectic for the past week with non-stop chasing without a break period as yet. We have targeted everywhere from north Kansas to the far SW corner of Texas over the past week with each and every day producing relatively high-end storms. In fact we just ticked over 3000 miles for the week so as soon as we drop off the storms at the end of each day we are spent and just want to get to a hotel and crash hard!

Anyway, here's a quick shot of a rather photogenic supercell down in the hills country of far southern Texas earlier this afternoon.


Sheffield, TX Supercell
by Orebound Images, on Flickr
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#1498436 - 06/05/2019 01:11 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2396
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Another big day yesterday on the southern plains with a couple of extremely photogenic supercells churning away near the New Mexico/ Texas state line. We targeted the southern cell after starting the day out near Roswell, New Mexico and tracked the storm as it crossed into Texas near Seminole. This storm had a couple of attempts at wrapping up with a brief funnel appearing near dark but was mostly just that bit too high in the base for a real tornado threat although it was tor warned for a period.

Today looks perhaps a little less interesting although so far this season most days have produced some surprises. We will be targeting just to the east of Lubbock TX initially and taking it from there.

Severe threat ramps up considerably over the next few days.

Quick snap from yesterday..


Seminole, TX Supercell
by Orebound Images, on Flickr
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