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#1497226 - 07/04/2019 08:10 2019 USA Severe Weather Season
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15003
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Time to get this one rolling again! Very keen to get back into the virtual world this year and pick out some more targets! Plenty of aussies heading over again so no doubt many more great pics shall flood through here.

The season as a whole has started well in terms of dynamics, very cold up top with a massive snow melt to occur plus floods galore near the E/NE part of NE and IA/MO. But strong closed lows so far, once the moisture comes in can see above average rainfall and more frequent large MCS like events charging the plains. Should be a good year! Keep safe all, targets to follow as see fit.

TS cool

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#1497229 - 07/04/2019 08:54 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2389
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Good work Rowland, been meaning to get this thread up and running.

Yes we are heading back for yet another season in a couple weeks time, will be there until the end of June this year so plenty of miles ahead of us no doubt. We'll certainly try and report back from time to time when things get interesting.

Certainly starting to look like potential is there for a vintage plains season this year with a much more progressive synoptic pattern already in place.

Here's to a big season ahead!
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#1497488 - 13/04/2019 19:53 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3302
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Virtual Target for Saturday 13/4/2019 USA ( Sunday morning here)

Potential nasty situation in Dixie Alley tomorrow (Sunday our time), potential for some long lived strong tornadoes. This area is deadly as cloud bases are often so low residents cannot clearly determine tornadoes until they are practically on top of them. Combine that with quite thick tree coverage and winding roads in parts and its a deadly combo.

Surface low over East Texas will have a LLJ (Low Level Jet) sucking in 70F plus dew points straight off the Gulf and into Texas/Louisiana border area.

The upper 500mb low is situation further NW (you need that offset between surface low and upper to have strong jets) The 500mb winds are plain scary ! 90 knot by 21Z.

My virtual target will be Alexandria, Louisana. Ideally I would like to be a little further north, but there are large forest areas. Alexandria gives me road options.

Be prepared however to drive as close to top speed limits as possible, this system will not hang around, you may get only one shot, or two and by dark action could be a lot further east.
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http://ozthunder.com

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#1497491 - 14/04/2019 02:55 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15003
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Really bad day coming up over LA chiefly, long-tracked and violent tornadoes a good chance. Super low LCL's absolute groundscrapers, could be multiple wedges and nasty multi-vortex tornadoes in this setup, trees, terrain as Michael mentions. Tough chasing with that plus the speed of it all. Massive high end dynamics, big shear, big moisture. It almost warrants a high risk, but maybe not quite.

Target a little more north purely to allow for some wiggle room on locking onto a tornadic supercell despite initiation likely quite a bit more SW, be very hard catching these from the S/SE side. I-20 corridor seems the safer bet, thinking atm Monroe to Rayville LA, good road options in all directions. Main target is the more discrete modes in the pre-frontal trough area, but main front will give another go later but prob more linear by then and harder to see. Warm front boundary and just south seems good bet as it reaches N half of LA.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (14/04/2019 02:56)

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#1497524 - 15/04/2019 08:37 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1915
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Sad news out of the US. 8 people killed in tornadoes on Sunday there.
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#1497527 - 15/04/2019 10:01 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3302
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
I don't think there was any right or wrong targeting for the 13/4, pretty much all areas from East Texas to Mississippi saw severe storms and tornadoes. In hindsight I would have targeted East Texas as that was the last area where storms appeared discreet, by the time they rolled in Louisiana it was a blind mess - pretty much what myself and Ore Bund described
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#1497621 - 18/04/2019 02:02 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15003
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yea was tough going picking a target, big area, no real capping and very low lcl's/big forcing so despite amazing shear and potential slop and mess can get in the way and to a degree it did but still some strong tornadoes all the same

Today a tricky one but thinking somewhere off the dryline in NE TX. Will go for Como TX hopefully they are fairly discrete down there.

TS cool

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#1497628 - 18/04/2019 09:37 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15003
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Models trended west/nw with each run after bed with lagging cold air so reviewed target be directly north of the DFW metroplex. Supercells starting to form now on the dryline.

Earlier the lesser capped warm front near Canadian/Higgins TX managed to put down an a clean elephant trunk...models held it linear but discrete modes are still ongoing.

TS cool

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#1497632 - 18/04/2019 11:34 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: ozthunder]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3302
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: ozthunder
I don't think there was any right or wrong targeting for the 13/4, pretty much all areas from East Texas to Mississippi saw severe storms and tornadoes. In hindsight I would have targeted East Texas as that was the last area where storms appeared discreet, by the time they rolled in Louisiana it was a blind mess - pretty much what myself and Ore Bund described


Sorry , last sentence what Thunderstruck described
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