Page 1 of 4 1 2 3 4 >
Topic Options
#1498067 - 29/04/2019 13:22 Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8020
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
As discussed in the future events thread, here it looms:



Good luck to any areas of Vic that receive some much needed rainfall.

Top
#1498082 - 29/04/2019 18:30 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8020
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
In terms of potential cut-off low's - this one is a technical nightmare for models to analyse (at present the cut-off has triple multi-cells embedded!):



A couple near certaintanties to come:

1. There will be significant rain finally for some areas of Vic by the end of the week
2. The final outcome will only vaguely resemble the above "model guess"
3. Significant disagreement between models, even up to 12hrs before the system arrive (imo)

Top
#1498091 - 29/04/2019 21:06 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: Petros]
drewgon Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2012
Posts: 55
Loc: Nagambie
With only 86mm of rain this year in Nagambie.. Would be stoked to get atleast 20mm :-) poor old grass and gardens!

Top
#1498100 - 30/04/2019 07:34 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2192
Loc: Sale, VIC
Brave man P, models still seem inconsistent, the constant theme over recent days is better rain in the central and N/E.

The cut off low loitering on the E side of the BIGHT is at least being effective and spinning in some rain from the low trough coming down from QLD/NT.

Locally (Sale) 5 to 10mm is on the cards, maybe 1/2", N/E 60 to 75mm maybe and Shepp 30 to 60mm if any credence is given to models.

Who knows LOL grin




Edited by samboz (30/04/2019 07:43)

Top
#1498101 - 30/04/2019 07:47 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: drewgon]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2192
Loc: Sale, VIC
Originally Posted By: drewgon
With only 86mm of rain this year in Nagambie.. Would be stoked to get atleast 20mm :-) poor old grass and gardens!


WZ obs re Sale drew are very similiar with 89mm for the year, a little under 1/2 of yr. average.

Our local farmers on dry country are doing it incredibly tough, irrigators getting by but still in the same boat to milk cows.

Top
#1498103 - 30/04/2019 08:07 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: samboz]
drewgon Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2012
Posts: 55
Loc: Nagambie
Originally Posted By: samboz
Originally Posted By: drewgon
With only 86mm of rain this year in Nagambie.. Would be stoked to get atleast 20mm :-) poor old grass and gardens!


WZ obs re Sale drew are very similiar with 89mm for the year, a little under 1/2 of yr. average.

Our local farmers on dry country are doing it incredibly tough, irrigators getting by but still in the same boat to milk cows.

55mm of my yearly is in January, only 30odd mm since Feb 1st. frown

Top
#1498107 - 30/04/2019 09:39 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: Petros]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 131
Loc: Shepparton
hope your right samboz I'm in Shepparton, we have only had about 25 mm for the year so far
_________________________
check out my you tube channel gleno2008

Top
#1498110 - 30/04/2019 10:55 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2858
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
New Tread seem first of year as we sitting 4 months no storm-chasing..

Bendigo only had 43.5mm in 4 months and average is 142.6mm

Once starts wet Victoria we have tricky green winter grass is surface still in drought as Victoria needs another 200mm rain is way behind.

Storm cast chart start West and North Country tomorrow afternoon slowly and become stronger into Thursday for East to NSW.

Top
#1498136 - 30/04/2019 18:34 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8020
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The event is on the doorstep now, and (greedily) I note that Gippsland is now considered as a possible recipient of decent rain as well! smile

Here's AccR's latests (which GFS's latest also matches):



Good luck for all areas of Vic! - as always, some areas will miss out, but this is the first significant rain event for such a large area of Vic for this year (at the very least!).

Top
#1498138 - 30/04/2019 18:52 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8020
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Should have said earlier, ....Alexia - might be worth making some preparations? Could get very wet up your way.

Top
#1498152 - 30/04/2019 22:49 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 585
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Big rain event on and North of the ranges east of a line Swan hill to Colac get excited
20-40mm easy with many in the 50-80mm range and some over 100mm

West of this line 5-10mm maybe, if that, sad, Mallee and that really need it, less than 10mm so far this year there

Isol 100-130mm+ in the NE ranges

Framers and country side need it more than us but most of us 10-20mm and further east closer to 40mm in the hills etc

Enjoy next 48 hours lots of rain and storms very widespread for VIC and NSW

Bendgio easy 20mm, but thinking you more like 40-60mm the band of stroms and convergaence will be heavy and intense tomorrow night were that sets up heavy falls for sure

Big day and night of watching Sat and radar tomorrow
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

Top
#1498159 - 01/05/2019 07:26 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: Petros]
Gabby Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2868
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
It is very dry up here. The farmers will be anxious for the amount of rain predicted to eventuate. Lots of ploughing and seeding going on, so rain is needed badly then some follow up rain to cement the next harvest for them. Fingers crossed! Much needed falls in the dry areas of Gippsland and The Mallee would be good too.

Top
#1498161 - 01/05/2019 07:55 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: Gabby]
drewgon Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2012
Posts: 55
Loc: Nagambie
Originally Posted By: Gabby
It is very dry up here. The farmers will be anxious for the amount of rain predicted to eventuate. Lots of ploughing and seeding going on, so rain is needed badly then some follow up rain to cement the next harvest for them. Fingers crossed! Much needed falls in the dry areas of Gippsland and The Mallee would be good too.

I was up in Yarrawonga visiting my parents the other week. Can't believe how dry it is up there. If it wasn't for the lake you would think it's near desert!

Top
#1498168 - 01/05/2019 08:48 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 799
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Hopefully if there are good falls in the NE it can flow into the Murray and make it's way up to the Mallee?

Top
#1498171 - 01/05/2019 09:20 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2192
Loc: Sale, VIC
Nice to see some optimism smile

Meanwhile - Sale BOM forecast for Thur,Fri,Sat is 0-2mm per day for the whole three. Mind you, the forecast is 90% sure of that 0 to 2mm for tomorrow (Thur)...LOL

Local E/Sale BOM on ABC GIPPSLAND this morning is much more hopeful of better rain here, don't remember amount, prob turned radio off grin

Sale 10 day Accumulated Rainfall F'casts - EC 22mm and GFS 37mm, sounds promising.

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulation

Top
#1498172 - 01/05/2019 09:24 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2192
Loc: Sale, VIC
http://www.bom.gov.au/places/vic/sale/

Thu 2 May Forecast StormMin14 °CMax25 °CPrecisRain. Possible storm.Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mmChance of any rain: 90%

Fri 3 May Forecast Light ShowersMin13 °CMax21 °CPrecisPossible shower.Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mmChance of any rain: 40%

Sat 4 May Forecast ShowersMin12 °CMax16 °CPrecisShower or two.Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mmChance of any rain: 50%

Top
#1498176 - 01/05/2019 10:06 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: Petros]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 131
Loc: Shepparton
just passed 25 mm for the year up in the north of state Shepparton area, hope we get a hap more does not look real good the main rain band is just about to clear, 1mm for this event so far
_________________________
check out my you tube channel gleno2008

Top
#1498181 - 01/05/2019 11:23 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2858
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thunderstorms likely fire up between Adelaide to West Victoria anytime Today, Nice have clear slot in West Victoria give sun more energy to surface..

Top
#1498185 - 01/05/2019 12:37 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6455
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
8.7mm so far from this event. Was only on 37.8mm YTD prior. Windy fog now windy heavy fast moving cloud with brief sun bursts and an amazing DP of 13.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1498193 - 01/05/2019 16:33 Re: Vic - arrival of a cutoff low system 31/4/19 - 2/5/19 [Re: Petros]
BlueyZarsoff Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/07/2015
Posts: 119
Loc: Fountain Lakes (Sth East Melb)
Not a drop here !!! Force Field in effect

Top
Page 1 of 4 1 2 3 4 >


Moderator:  Lindsay Knowles, stormygirl 
Who's Online
4 registered (Kangaroo, petethemoskeet, Mcbobbings, RC), 62 Guests and 1 Spider online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
christos(1), Lightning55, Luke_A, Max744, Mrs. Randy
Forum Stats
29946 Members
32 Forums
24164 Topics
1526944 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image