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#1485561 - 15/01/2019 23:14 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 789
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Absolutely nothing but more heat coming again from this Sunday onwards. Indeed it is looking hotter than today was and also the possibility of 3 to 4 days in a row of 30c or more.
Really this is now surely challenge even the most sun loving individuals patience.
Gut feeling this month will really blow away any previous marks.

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#1485565 - 15/01/2019 23:42 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 789
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
About to have a new record set for the number of days above 20c on Friday. Previous was 25 in row in 2013. Looking at that being extended way past the old mark with nothing 20 c or under in 15 day forecast.
Still 20c here in the Hobart burbs @ 11:40 , BOM saying 23c tomorrow ?

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#1485615 - 16/01/2019 12:13 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2065
Loc: Westbury
The irony MH2O, Hobart battling against the sea breeze today, stuck on about 17-18. Might just get 20 later.

But yes, by late next week it's quite likely Hobart will be well on track to set a new record high average max temp for any month.

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#1485652 - 16/01/2019 15:30 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: Snowies]
boxingkoala Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/06/2011
Posts: 66
great for the tomato and pumpkins etc. lol
_________________________
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#1485706 - 16/01/2019 22:41 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2207
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
No mention of the storms how have you all forgotten that!!
Heaps of dry lightning yesterday and Monday has left Tassie with over 80 fires burning in bush land with many not controlled.
Chased fires in Pelverata last night form lightning, a tree had the bark taken off it and Fire around the base of it.
Also drove up the Mt looking for the Tom Thumb fire last night with no luck from the big bend on the Mt down to Collinsvale. Got home at 12am.
Also on Monday had virga from a big cloud that The Bom put on Twitter for me.
The cell turned into a storm and light the sky up and then bang. Yes was close by I later found out that my two eldest daughters and the 4 others in a 4wd got struck with lightning just above the Summerleas / Huon Hwy intersection. 2 cars were hit plenty more pulled over to see if everyone was ok, they all had head aches but nothing more and the cars were fine. Even two guys came running out from a paddock to check on them all.
One strike from that cell and it was over.

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#1485802 - 17/01/2019 19:36 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 470
Loc: Hobart
A dramatic encounter for sure Stale fish but being inside the car would have been the safest place to be I reckon! I can imagine the headaches and shock though of being so close to a lightning strike itself.
The TFS website looks really concerning at the moment with the 80+ fires showing up on the map, quite foreboding considering historical bushfire events, more in regards to what the weather might do after the brief cool change at the end of next week. The warm weather early next week may not come with dangerous fire weather conditions, so hopefully things won't escalate too much.

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#1485866 - 18/01/2019 09:29 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2065
Loc: Westbury
Wow, getting struck by the one and only strike, that is unlucky, but fortunately they were all ok - could have been much worse! And yes, I did happen to see the pic on Twitter.

Yeah the lightning hit Monday night and again at Tuesday lunch time up this way, no fires near us, but the lightning on the west coast and in the south was a disaster given the number of fires that started in areas that have never been burnt. Let's hope it doesn't get out of hand next week, chance of a really hot day late next week and there is no sign of significant rain - although we got 7mm at home yesterday morning.

Despite the forecast we haven't managed a day over 30 in the current heat cycle, too much cloud at the wrong times. Tuesday would have been really hot had the storm not hit at lunch time and pushed the temp down 6 degrees. Reached 29 before the storm and got back to 29.4 late in the afternoon. Still, including today, Cressy's forecast has 6 days out of 7 at 30 or more and I don't think cloud cover and storms are going to save us forever.




Edited by Snowies (18/01/2019 09:30)

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#1485977 - 18/01/2019 22:33 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 789
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Get ready for Sunday onwards smile just hoping all the heat lovers have ordered some sunscreen and installed air con .
Oh well only 4 more months till we see 2 weeks of cooler weather , but even then I wouldn't bet on it.
Welcome to our new style planet everyday is lovely warm and sunny.

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#1486138 - 20/01/2019 17:50 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
LonnyDave Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 08/05/2018
Posts: 47
Unusually high maximum at Devonport today 32.2

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#1486150 - 20/01/2019 19:06 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 789
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
29.5 c reached in Hobart . Newfoundland Canada is looking more tempting for my retirement smile

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#1486153 - 20/01/2019 19:41 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2065
Loc: Westbury
33.4 here, our warmest day of the summer, still over 30 at 7pm but a lot of smoke from the plateau around, especially to our east - glad I'm not in the line of that fire. We've had an 8 day run over 25, averaging 28.3 over those 8 days and 26.8 for the month = looks like it'll extend to Friday, although may struggle on Wednesday to reach 25.


Edited by Snowies (20/01/2019 19:45)

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#1486156 - 20/01/2019 19:56 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
LonnyDave Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 08/05/2018
Posts: 47
Looks like January average max temps records in Tasmania for many places are in danger

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#1486189 - 21/01/2019 05:36 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2207
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Morning all,
Not looking like a nice week with so many major fires running and no rain in sight.
I have done the weekly roster here at work and I have staffed the place expecting me not to be there!
Looks like a lot of fire fighting ahead for me over the next few weeks.
Got the slip on fire unit on the ute if we have issues up Tods Corner end of the Great Lake as there is a possibility it could make it that far to my shack.
Anyway just have to wait and see what happens.

Very good chance of smashing temp records.

Very thick smoke here this morning.

The lowest RH around the state atm is at Liawenee with 56% and 16.7 degrees and a 20km NW Wind.

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#1486276 - 21/01/2019 20:06 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 248
Loc: Andergrove QLD
I see you're on fire again.

Himawari 8 image at 0810UT. Received by me. Smoke shows as blue plumes.



Edited by Learjet (21/01/2019 20:07)

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#1486287 - 21/01/2019 22:10 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 789
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
31 c Hobart today , 2 days in a row BOM has failed to get temps correct . BOM are forecasting 29c tomorrow I'll bet it's 33 c ,they haven't a clue.

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#1486288 - 21/01/2019 22:27 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 789
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Next week also looking very much over average as well. This sh!t is going no place.

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#1486290 - 22/01/2019 01:12 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 97
Loc: Tasmania, Hobart
Pretty sure Hobart is on track for it's hottest month overall ever.

Most likely will break both the highest ever max temp monthly mean.

As well as the highest ever min temp monthly mean.

Previous highest were 25.2 degrees and 14.8 degrees respectively.

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#1486291 - 22/01/2019 02:47 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 470
Loc: Hobart
May even break the January record for low rainfall too or at least get one of the drier Januaries on record.

The current January mean temperature record for Hobart is 19.3 (max+min) in 2018 and 2003. That may be the record monthly mean for all months don't have February stats at hand. Right now it looks like we'll finish January close to 1.0c above that record, which is very dramatic. The record jump may be bigger than Nov 2017 which was shocking enough at the time!

The most interesting thing for me about this month is no extreme heat at night or day, just sustained warmth and a relatively narrow band of temperature. Very much feels like we've just shifted into another climate zone altogether.

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#1486299 - 22/01/2019 09:29 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2065
Loc: Westbury
SE already blowing through the Hobart CBD, I reckon it'll struggle to reach 30, maybe 27 as the max? - unless the northerly winds really strengthen later, but winds are fairly light this morning and Hobart's forecast is for a strengthening SE.

Yep - The probability of Hobart having a January average max of 25.5 based on more than 100 years of recorded data is very small... I haven't looked at combined min/max records, might be worth calculating.

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#1486311 - 22/01/2019 12:24 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2285
Loc: Clare, SA
Seems to be the key feature of this prolonged heatwave yep, the weather is just doing absolutely nothing and the 'changes' in-between the heatspells have been so shallow and meaningless that there is nothing to disperse this heat away.

Apart from far northern areas of Australia and the odd local storms it has barely rained anywhere in Aus this month. A change in the pattern is desperately needed or Se Aus and Tasmania are in big trouble for fire potential over the next couple of months. Fortunately this stagnant weather has meant we haven't had the really windy days that trigger the huge killer fires but that will only last so long. I fear the first big cold front we get which is needed to disperse this heat will have horrific fire weather conditions out ahead. No mercy this year frown

Praying Tassies wild areas get through this relatively unscathed.

_________________________
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http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

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