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#1498374 - 04/05/2019 20:13 NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
All models are in agreement for a major cold pool to be flung up from deep in the Antarctic across us later next week.

Moisture is 50/50 but I suspect that may improve if the preceding winds have a more se’erly component.

Expecting showers and storms with small hail and snow across the ranges right to the QLD border, possibly down to 800m or even lower south of Sydney.


Edited by Seabreeze (04/05/2019 21:48)
Edit Reason: added state and year

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#1498377 - 04/05/2019 20:40 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Here's ACCESS for 9:00 Friday. The other models are in fairly close agreement.



The blue line later moves further East and North, but the moisture keeps West of the Divide. It looks like useful rain for the Southern and Central Tablelands and slopes. There will be snow in the Snowys. Snow also looks likely in places like Orange and Oberon, but probably not the Blue Mountains or Southern Highlands.

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#1498378 - 04/05/2019 20:48 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Jac0b Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/12/2018
Posts: 144
That 850mb 0°C isotherm next Friday almost reaches the QLD border.


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#1498379 - 04/05/2019 20:52 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
BoM think it’ll snow on the BM’s around shooters.

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#1498382 - 04/05/2019 21:51 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 375
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
This one will be a sure hammering for me, by the looks of it; I'd reckon it'll fall down to about 600 m AMSL i.e. Tumbarumba-level, at my latitude and windward angle of course. Probably not falling in Cooma, however, and certainly not any farther eastwards than that.
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1498383 - 04/05/2019 22:15 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 759
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
06z gfs has the cut off low well north. Guyra in the firing line for some snow.

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#1498392 - 05/05/2019 07:13 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Jac0b]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Originally Posted By: Jac0b
That 850mb 0°C isotherm next Friday almost reaches the QLD border.



Hhhmmm, I’m unsure Winnie the Pooh will be as extensive as this chart suggests as there appears to be quite a difference between the BOM forecast for Friday between Orange and Katoomba. Going of the MSLP chart for Wednesday, I have a suspicion this one might slip south a bit too early for a real widespread cold outbreak. Perhaps a good one to get some snow on the ground for the Snowies to at least get the ground temp down, but I’d say at this stage whatever falls there will melt before season proper.

Waiting on that Friday MSLP chart from the BOM before I get excited..

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#1498395 - 05/05/2019 09:54 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Adaminaby Angler]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 178
Loc: Bowral
Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler
This one will be a sure hammering for me, by the looks of it; I'd reckon it'll fall down to about 600 m AMSL i.e. Tumbarumba-level, at my latitude and windward angle of course. Probably not falling in Cooma, however, and certainly not any farther eastwards than that.


This morning's model runs point towards a much more southerly moisture flow, indicating places further east (if it is cold enough of course) such as Delegate and Bombala and the higher surrounds may actually get more snow than places further west. Jindy, Thredbo and all southern facing high areas usually do very well out of these sort of systems in terms of snow.

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#1498397 - 05/05/2019 10:21 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Snowmaker]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 375
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
I might very well score better than Cabramurra, in that case. laugh
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1498434 - 05/05/2019 22:17 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
...and a southerly flow is much better for moisture...

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#1498435 - 05/05/2019 22:53 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
It's certainly looking good for that far south area around Bombala. Nimmitabel could get 10+ cm at this stage I reckon.

Moisture wise for the ranges in general, it might be on track to be as good or even better than any cool change we had last winter.


Edited by Wave Rider (05/05/2019 22:56)
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1498456 - 06/05/2019 16:27 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Models are not backing away from this event - they seem to be getting better - overnight EC is insane - tipping snow all the way to the QLD border, and then the colder drier air being captured by the trades and shunted almost to Indo! True cold outbreak. Still too SW'erly for the coastal areas to see much other than the bitter winds.

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#1498457 - 06/05/2019 16:57 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
BoM snowcast also upgraded in response - Jenolan Caves now included. May snow there surely would be rare.

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#1498461 - 06/05/2019 17:55 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
GFS still looks fully on board, with the blue line embracing much of Central and Eastern NSW and sub-zero 850 temps over the Central Tablelands on Friday morning. The BOM are coming on board: Strong Front Approaches .

The BOM forecast for the Central Tablelands, however, only shows snow for Oberon, with snow 'possible' above 1,000 metres for Jenolan Caves. On MetEye, peak snow for the Central Tablelands looks to be around 10:00 Friday, with falls maybe above 1100 metres.

We'll see what happens.


Edited by Steve777 (06/05/2019 17:56)

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#1498476 - 06/05/2019 19:58 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Originally Posted By: Kino
BoM snowcast also upgraded in response - Jenolan Caves now included. May snow there surely would be rare.


Not rare at all. The forecast for 'Jenolan Caves' extends to the areas around the actual village which include places like Mt Trickett and Mt Bindo, both around the 1360m mark. That's why the forecast notes for Jenolan Caves read "snow possible above 1000m", despite the village itself being around 840m. The surrounding areas of 1000m + are certainly no stranger to snowfalls in May.

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#1498487 - 07/05/2019 03:45 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 375
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Snowcast for Wednesday states snow falling above 1,400 m; however, my forecast states otherwise—snow for me down at 1,300 m, on both Wednesday and Friday:

https://m.imgur.com/a/yhor8I4

I can certainly wager on it—remember the unforecast March flurries for Porters Retreat this year? Snow might very well fall as low as the Lake Eucumbene foreshore (1,168 m) on Wednesday, best case scenario.
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1498493 - 07/05/2019 08:35 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
A cold snap is still a goer at this stage and particularly temps at 500mb are decent at below -30 over the CT so should be plenty of snow showers around. Sunny periods between showers will probably enhance snowfall because there's some instability involved with this change thanks to that cold pool.


Edited by Wave Rider (07/05/2019 08:35)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1498495 - 07/05/2019 09:07 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 178
Loc: Bowral
My bet is that settled snow will fall down to around 900m on both on the southern and central tablelands on Friday including the snowies. Places like Jindabyne could surprise with this system as the wind direction is perfect for them to get lucky. Crookwell should also get something as will most areas above 1000m around Jenolan Caves etc. Between 6am and 9am I tink will be the heaviest snow for the CTs as most of the moisture comes with the leading edge of the cold air. As Waverider said, the really good instability associated with those really cold uppers could surprise with snow to lower levels than expected! Very much doubt we will get anything here at home because the winds are not favourable, but will definitely do a drive to Crookwell if things are looking good early Friday


Edited by Snowmaker (07/05/2019 09:08)

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#1498504 - 07/05/2019 11:01 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 739
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
AA I'm wondering whether you do receive any lake effect snow down there where you are.

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#1498509 - 07/05/2019 12:08 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: ashestoashes]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 178
Loc: Bowral
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
AA I'm wondering whether you do receive any lake effect snow down there where you are.


Ashes I had a quick look at the lake effect snow page on wikipedia as I was also interested in this and it says that apparently you need a fetch (distance that the cold air travels over water) of at least 100km so I think lake Eucumbene would be too small for this to happen. Unless there is some weird microclimate thing going on down there in the mountains. Looking forward to seeing some reports and pics from you AA this week!

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