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#1498514 - 07/05/2019 12:34 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Snowmaker]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 365
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Originally Posted By: Snowmaker
Ashes I had a quick look at the lake effect snow page on wikipedia as I was also interested in this and it says that apparently you need a fetch (distance that the cold air travels over water) of at least 100km so I think lake Eucumbene would be too small for this to happen. Unless there is some weird microclimate thing going on down there in the mountains. Looking forward to seeing some reports and pics from you AA this week!

Not so much a proper lake effect, but rather the windward angle of which I'm situated upon; I'm at the North-Western side of the lake (near Bugtown Rd, Denison Mount and Mars Hill), thereby allowing greater moisture to be collected before depositing.

The Eastern side of the lake—straddling Middlingbank, Frying Pan, and surrounds, do not get nearly as much snowfall as up here. Rhine Falls (on Eucumbene's East) is about my elevation, but tends to lack the snowfall I get due to its more sheltered location—notice how warm they always get forecast in comparison to Cabramurra, whilst I'm often a mere 1.5° C warmer than Cabra in maximums, which would put my average July maximum around 5° C.
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#1498545 - 07/05/2019 20:14 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 365
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Tomorrow morning, I'll let you fellas know if I have any luck; the initial flakes are expected to fall from about 6:00 AM, according to hourly forecasts.
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1498553 - 07/05/2019 21:04 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 178
Loc: Bowral
Looking forward to your reports mate.

Top of 13 tomorrow here, could be the coldest day of the year so far taking into account the strong winds and wind chill

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#1498570 - 08/05/2019 08:31 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 523
Well, there definitely appears to be a good parcel of cold air behind Friday’s front on this morning’s satellite. How far this ends up pushing north I’m not so sure.
This system appears to lack a sustained SW’ly airflow which would be needed for a more widespread cold event.

My guess for areas outside of the Snowies (the main place of action for this event) is for SW - S’ly winds to drop a bit of sleet and wet snow on the high areas around Jenolan and Yetholme. Those areas tend to do a bit better with these systems with a bit more S’ly component.

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#1498579 - 08/05/2019 11:25 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3346
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
All I see for the Illawarra is 4-5 days of boredom weather. Hoping that the series of highs can default a little and move south a little to get coastal showers below Newcastle mid next week.
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#1498584 - 08/05/2019 13:21 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: ozthunder]
Ben K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2012
Posts: 161
Loc: Central Coast, NSW
Originally Posted By: ozthunder
All I see for the Illawarra is 4-5 days of boredom weather. Hoping that the series of highs can default a little and move south a little to get coastal showers below Newcastle mid next week.


Very boring on the Central Coast as well. The past few Mays have all been the same. The last interesting May here was probably 2015.

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#1498585 - 08/05/2019 13:41 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
There was a big variation in minima across Sydney this morning, from 2.7 at Campbelltown to 14.5 at Sydney OH. In spite of the clear skies last night, it stayed relatively warm at places that aren't strongly affected by inversions, for example OH, Mount Boyce and Norah Head, where warm-ish breezes kept temperatures several degrees warmer than the previous night.

A weak cold front passed through Sydney mid-morning, making it briefly cloudy with the wind picking up. Webcams show a light dusting of snow at the resorts.

As for Friday's event, it now looks like marginal snow for the higher parts of the Central Tablelands and a small, brief dip in temperatures on the coast. After that, high pressure settles over the South of the continent for the foreseeable future.

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#1498587 - 08/05/2019 14:34 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 178
Loc: Bowral
The models have definitely dropped off on the cold air for Friday now. Chance of snow above 1100m for the CTs I think. Will only be very isolated showers though

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#1498588 - 08/05/2019 14:42 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Guess we'll see - satpic says plenty of potential.

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#1498603 - 08/05/2019 20:35 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10184
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Cooled noticeably here in Bx after lunch currently about 4, should be frost tomorrow morning . Yep Friday seems to be changing but who knows.

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#1498606 - 08/05/2019 21:03 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Rain band and cold pool extending right up to the NW NSW /QLD border.
would you believe the 536 thickness line extends up to the far NW border of the state, Friday morning 4am.

minimum of 10 deg c for Bourke and top of 16 deg friday forecast
http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/bourke.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

An embedded small low in the trough should improve chances for snow on the alps on friday afternoon, evening, with 540 thickness and an accompanied precip' signal. Snow above 1200m l believe the BOM forecast said.
Jindabyne is 915 m
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#1498615 - 09/05/2019 08:17 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 365
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Snow Report; Wednesday, 8th of May, 2019:

Outcome: +Positive+

Extreme Lowest Altitudinal: ~1,260 m (Providence Portal, on the "Yellow Road")

Was nothing to be particularly excited over, with chiefly wet and sleety snow falling (and accumulating a tad) yesterday. However, it was very marginal: Mt. Cobrabald (1,471 m AMSL), alongside the rest of Braemar Bay and Buckenderra (of whom usually get hammered) had missed out on the precipitation, thereby not falling up there—but falling here, on the NW angle instead.

I also recall that Thredbo Village (1,380 m AMSL) did not get any sort of snowfall, either, which farther accentuates how westerly and marginal this event really was...and how lucky of a position I was in yesterday.

Maximum yesterday was 3.8° C here; 2.5° C at Cabramurra.
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1498661 - 09/05/2019 19:49 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 365
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Major downgrade for tomorrow's front, it appears. Snow restricted to >1,100 m even down at this latitude, with a fair chance that the Central Tablelands misses out altogether—save for perhaps the upper crests of the Abercrombie Range, with sleety falls at best. We can forget any snowfall for Guyra or Walcha, at this point.
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1498664 - 09/05/2019 20:08 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Adaminaby Angler]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Yes, although the synoptic chart shows an impressive-looking cold front crossing the Tablelands and Coast tomorrow morning, the cold air mass enters the Western half of the State and quickly breaks up and dissipates as it moves East.

For the coast, a complete non-event, no rain, not even a dip in temperature.

Still, until a yesterday, it looked like a significant cold outbreak.

EDIT: An ECL does develop off the South Coast. There will be good rain down there and likely some snow on the Snowys.


Edited by Steve777 (09/05/2019 20:12)

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#1498669 - 09/05/2019 20:31 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Here's the ABC's take on tomorrow's front: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-09/sydney-temperatures-to-plummet-in-cold-snap/11097536

A bit hyped up but it will be cold in the West, e.g maxima of 14 at Broken Hill and 16 at Bourke.

Here's an extract from the State forecast for tomorrow: "A shower or two developing on the central and southern ranges, falling as snow above 110 metres in the south and possible dusting in higher central parts."

They probably mean 1100.

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#1498670 - 09/05/2019 20:49 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 523
Eh, I know no one pays much mind to me on here but when it comes to cold fronts it's all in those 4 day forecast MSLP charts the BoM puts out in combination with the satellite pic for the final clincher. This event looked to loose steam a few days ago for mind. I never pay much mind to models with thickness lines extending here or there and what not as they never seem to be particularly accurate predictors a week out etc.

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#1498677 - 09/05/2019 23:11 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Eigerwand]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 365
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Eh, I know no one pays much mind to me on here but when it comes to cold fronts it's all in those 4 day forecast MSLP charts the BoM puts out in combination with the satellite pic for the final clincher. This event looked to loose steam a few days ago for mind. I never pay much mind to models with thickness lines extending here or there and what not as they never seem to be particularly accurate predictors a week out etc.

This is where I can agree with you; the Weather.com forecasts I always use, had at no point this past week predicted even the slightest hint of snowfall for the likes of Guyra, and still merely predict rain and sleet for the likes of Shooters Hill.

Models don't tell you everything, indeed, and are likewise subject to inaccuracy(s).
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1498717 - 10/05/2019 13:05 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Mcbobbings Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 133
Some sprinkles in the Ryde area today, and perhaps elsewherre. Apart from a temp spike to around 19c at 9:30 (sunny break perhaps?) it's been cold in Sydney, hovering around 14-17c across the basin. Certainly less bite than what I would have thought 4 or 5 days ago....

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#1498718 - 10/05/2019 13:27 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Kino]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 178
Loc: Bowral
Correct me if I'm wrong, but is the low in a really odd position compared to what was expected? All the models suggested it was meant to be centred off Mallacoota, Eden etc by this time. It is currently positioned near Griffith

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#1498720 - 10/05/2019 13:31 Re: NSW Upper cold pool - Thurs 9/5 - Sat 11/5/2019 [Re: Snowmaker]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3346
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Snowmaker
Correct me if I'm wrong, but is the low in a really odd position compared to what was expected? All the models suggested it was meant to be centred off Mallacoota, Eden etc by this time. It is currently positioned near Griffith


Circulation seems to be apparent on Yarrawonga radar at 1.30pm (EST)
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