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#1498437 - 06/05/2019 02:09 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Thanks Orebound, certainly plan to get there one day. See what I can do about real soon....Magnificent images btw as well, sure was a cracker structure day yesterday was a bit busy for a target but Hobbs area seemed about right.

Today nice dryline job shooting E, perhaps in the boxed area of Childress/Matador/Paducah TX etc with nice shear late coming in with very big CAPE anything discrete could be quite impressive structure wise again and also that slight tornado risk.

TS cool

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#1498455 - 06/05/2019 14:53 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2396
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Thanks Rowland.

Big day out in the Texas panhandle today, incredible scenes from an incredible cyclic tornado producer.

Pretty late here and big drive to tomorrows target in a few hours so I shall write full report later.

Quick photo as first tornado crossed the road shortly after initially touching down...



Tahoka, Texas Tornado
by Orebound Images, on Flickr
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#1498471 - 06/05/2019 18:49 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1740
Loc: Uleybury
Was watching the tornado develop on radar this morning for the Tahoka cell. Mighty impressive on radar and had a textbook example of a couplet, I'll get the radar images up shortly for those interested.

Stunning images as well, makes me jealous, damn you poke haha

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#1498486 - 07/05/2019 02:07 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Great shot there mate! very solid day again.

Today I think is a little down on yest but still fairly solid potential but a much broader area to target. Two main areas, north of the quasi stat front with better backed winds over central/N KS and further SW over far SW KS, SE CO, NW OK and N TX near dryline/frontal intersection plus some remnant boundaries. Given I was in TX yest the KS frontal target would be a monumental drive so prob wouldn't go there but do like it so will put out two targets for those interested.

Salina KS for the N option and Sublette KS for the more SW option.

TS cool

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#1498552 - 07/05/2019 20:59 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1740
Loc: Uleybury
May 7:
My Take, anyone elses imput is more than welcome, only way I wil learn (nudge nudge Lennie poke )

Storm Predic Centre going a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms across the NE part of Texas and into Oklahoma, Pampa under the threat.

A cold front which is expeced to move south into Northern TX later in the day which will act as a nice trigger. An Upper Level Low will continue to move east across Arizona and New Mexico and will have a broad area of S to SE winds at 45-55kts attached, to be over the tip of Texas by 7PM where it is expected to increase to 55 to 65kts. CAPE levels around 2500 during the day, before incerasing to 3-3100 by 7PM. A CAP looks to be present at aroun 780mb so will halt anything until it breaks.
850 winds to become 20-30kts with local 35kt patches later in the day.

A deep lapse rate becomes present so updrafts will be strong with 35-45kt shear through the troposphere, some models are pegging in sigificant sized hail up to 4".


My picks will be Pampa and Canadian TX and surrounds, and a triangle between Laverne, Fort Worth & Shattuck OK.

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#1498564 - 08/05/2019 00:44 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Good stuff Kyle!! More targets the merrier.

Tough day yest but Salina target would have worked really well. Unfortunately for many the SW KS area didnít fire until the main squall line hit the region and forced new cells up. But some nocturnal tornado action around Garfield KS Occured which is close to salina.

In short today could be violent. Strong ejecting shortwave, strong shear large CAPE. Every man and his dog will be in the TX panhandle. Tough to pick but for me somewhere around Plainview TXto Turkey TX and take it from there. Right moving tail end Charlie a big focus for me today wherever that is. Could be way further S than that as could the earlier ones near the quasi stat front over OK panhandle and SW KS/ FAr N TX panhandle.

TS cool

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#1498786 - 11/05/2019 16:01 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1740
Loc: Uleybury
Pretty quiet for severe storm wise for the next few days before models begin to ramp things up signifcantly. Oklahoma looks decent for spotentail evere storms on the 17th, however shear is lacking for the good stuff, but has CAPE around 3200

Skip a few days ahead to the 21-22nd and this is two dates of interst for me. A mass level of CAPE ranging from 3200 to 5200, and a handy surface low.


May 21 00Z: Surface Low of 990mb in NEbraska at 40.75N 100.01W with decent shear in various levels from 25-30kts at the sfc, 50-60kts @ 850, 45-55kts at 700 and 60-65kts at 500.
Shear best on the western side of the low. A Jet at 300 begins to penetrate the areas of 100-105kts through OK, Top of TX up to 125kts. Decent levels of CAPE through Central OK at 27-3200J/kg increasing to as high as 4000 in Central to west TX. Dew Points in the low to mid 70s acorss central TX with Dew points of 46 on the dryline boundary. Temperatures of 80-84 with the low to mid 70s dew points, slightly higher with the lower dew points.

May 22 00Z: The low will track Northwards then NW before weaking. An EXPLOSIVE amount of CAPE will be present acorss NE TX and South Central of OK with CAPE up to 5200 with a significant sized area of 4000+. Dew Points mid to high 70s. Temps to by mid to high 80s. Light Southerly surface winds at 7-10kts, 20-25kts at 850 and to be 40kts in the NE corner of KS, lack of shear at 700 for TX, but increases in OK to 30-45kts. 30-40kts TX, 55-70kts OK and 50-45kts Nebraska.


AT this stage, May 21 looks to be the better day simply due to a deep layer of shear, soundings have PDS TOR on them so it could be a potentailly dangerous set up, but still 10 days out but certainly one to watch.

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#1499086 - 17/05/2019 22:48 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1740
Loc: Uleybury
17th May

Looks to be a day of significant weather acorss parts of the states with Nebraska and central Texas in the hotzone. The Storm Prediciton Centra has gone an Enhanced risk of severe thunderstoms for Nebraska with a 10% chance of EF-2+ Tornadoes.

A triangle of Stapleton, Halsey and Anselmo is my target for Nebraska. Good shear throughout and a highly unstable atmosphere, they will go up rapidly. Should also be good bases and features.

Large Hail, damaging gusts and I'll go a smokey and will think a wedge tornado may be lurking somewhere.

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#1499089 - 18/05/2019 01:11 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Big day today, blend of targets and itís not easy. Will play warm front in NE but start a bit south of it for a discrete warm sector storm.

Main target around North Platte NE to Thredford NE but start a bit south of there.

TS cool

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#1499090 - 18/05/2019 03:31 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Also forgot to mention for those playing further south there is an area of backed winds roughly near Laverne OK which would be my target down there for a nice tornadic discrete storm.

TS cool

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#1499096 - 18/05/2019 13:40 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2396
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Also forgot to mention for those playing further south there is an area of backed winds roughly near Laverne OK which would be my target down there for a nice tornadic discrete storm.

TS cool


We were playing the southern mode and scored perhaps the most incredible tornado we have ever seen. On the ground for over an hour and transitioned to an almost perfect stovepipe as it passed by Dodge City KS.

Pictures to come next day or so.
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#1499159 - 20/05/2019 15:24 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well the other day went partially well, Iím actually in the states and have been for a week. Eventual target became McCook the morning of and only if we actually went there and didnít get distracted!! But nevertheless still saw my first ever tornado and got another wrapped one soon after so not fully lost.

But Monday (today now) looks high end. Could be upgraded to high risk in one of the next two SPC convective outlooks. Big upper trough with powerful LLJ and deep moisture with very low LCLís and significant CAPE, some MLCAPEís are nudging 5000-6000J/Kg and deep layer shear of 60knots.

I also see significant complexities in the setup, we firstly have a nocturnal MCS firing off elevated storms, some supercellular before that drapes a boundary off it. With such big forcing aloft there could well be a lot of storm interference over the better sheared SW to C OK warm sector area as opposed to the dryline through the TX panhandle which has less looping curved low level hodographs atm due to the dryline orientation which is a tickle too NE-SW so there is potential for discrete storms to quickly go upscale due to them tracking along the areas of ascent seeding the updrafts with more linear precip. If we get a more N-S orientated dryline then I think discrete modes can be maintained for longer before upscale growth takes over. Whatever the case there should be multiple waves of storms and a few strong to violent and long-tracked tornadoes, mostly likely over SW OK and another two areas of slightly lesser focus being S central ok including OKC and surrounds down to the red river and also the TX panhandle up to the red river OK/TX border with more dryline storms. Also some backed winds way south around Ozona might fire some stand alone discrete storms or single storm there but a brave man only would target that.

For now very unsure but we are in Lubbock TX tonight. Current thinking is dependent on dryline orientation and warm front placement and size of warm sector. If warm sector is larger then SW OK but if smaller then perhaps TX dryline. In any case will go for Childress TX for now and take from there will review in morning.

TS cool

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#1499184 - 20/05/2019 19:34 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1740
Loc: Uleybury
Storm Predic Centre upgrades to High on this mornings run. The dynamics of this is just incredible. Will be watching this unfold on satellite and radar imagery. Will be archiving this thats for sure.

Location of choice is quite tricky but I will go around SW OK and surrounds. Childress/Paducua is my AOI, OK I'd say will be flooded with chasers.

For all chasing, PLEASE BE SAFE on what is one of the most dangerous setups this year.

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#1499190 - 20/05/2019 23:07 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Love reading the forecasts and reports from you guys on the ground over there. Seems to be a LOT of talk on Twitter about today being a very big day and potentially one for the record books. Good luck and stay safe!

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#1499198 - 21/05/2019 08:15 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Mega]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 6098
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Folks:
It's 5:11PM Monday here (Central Time) & the SPC has issued a PDS Tornado Watch for parts of N & N Central Texas & SW Oklahoma; as violent & long-track tornadoes look likely with this Severe Weather Outbreak. The last time a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch was issued was on April 27, 2011--the Outbreak that included the twisters that hit Birmingham & Tuscaloosa, Alabama. I've been watching the US Weather Channel.

Keeping an eye to the sky~~~Wet Snow

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#1499210 - 21/05/2019 13:49 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Wet Snow]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 6098
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Folks:
It's 10:45PM Monday Central Time, here--watching the US Weather Channel-there is a Doppler Indicated tornado with a "debris ball", not far to the SW of the town of Leach (in SW Delaware County), Oklahoma (NE Oklahoma); headed NE.
Looks like quite a tornado, hail & flash flooding threat is still happening & will go through the overnight. Looks like the action will hit my area in the early hours of the morning.

Kind Wishes--Take Care--GOD Bless~~~Wet Snow

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#1499213 - 21/05/2019 15:43 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Wet Snow]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3346
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Wet Snow
Hello Folks:
It's 10:45PM Monday Central Time, here--watching the US Weather Channel-there is a Doppler Indicated tornado with a "debris ball", not far to the SW of the town of Leach (in SW Delaware County), Oklahoma (NE Oklahoma); headed NE.
Looks like quite a tornado, hail & flash flooding threat is still happening & will go through the overnight. Looks like the action will hit my area in the early hours of the morning.

Kind Wishes--Take Care--GOD Bless~~~Wet Snow


Hope all stays well for you. I know I would not be able to sleep, but from excitement, not fear. But tornadoes in urban areas are not something to wish for.
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http://ozthunder.com

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#1499229 - 22/05/2019 00:21 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: ozthunder]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 6098
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Folks:
It's 9:17AM Tuesday here & the Weather Channel reported that there were at least 21 tornadoes in 5 states reported on Monday. The tornado & flash flood/flood threat is ongoing today, as well.
The thunderstorm line has passed through McAlester, Oklahoma (Thankfully, the current line is fairly thin & not quite as strong)--which means it will hit my area in around an hour (depending on speed & trajectory).

Kind Wishes--Take Care--GOD Bless~~~Wet Snow

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#1499239 - 22/05/2019 09:13 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Wet Snow]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 6098
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Folks: (Watching the US Weather Channel): It's 6:12PM Tuesday & There is a Tornado with a "debris ball" signature just east of Augusta, Missouri--this twister is headed for the western suburbs of St. Louis, Missouri. The NWS staff in St. Louis has handed off to the NWS office in Kansas City, MO--as the STL staff has taken shelter. The Spirit of St. Louis Airport is not that far east of this twister. Praying for the good folks in the "Gateway City". The "debris ball" is reported to be 7,000FT in the air.

Kind Wishes--GOD Bless--Take Care~~~Wet Snow

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#1499290 - 23/05/2019 06:55 Re: 2019 USA Severe Weather Season [Re: Wet Snow]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 6098
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Folks:
It's 3:51PM Wednesday here & watching the US Weather Channel. The NWS has issued a PDS Tornado Watch for parts of N Texas into N & Central Oklahoma, SE Kansas and into parts of W & Central Missouri.
Quite a bit of flooding happening in these areas as well--the Arkansas River at Tulsa, Oklahoma is at its highest level in over 30 years.

My prayers & thoughts go out to all who have been adversely impacted by the storms & flooding.

Kind Wishes--Take Care--GOD Bless~~~Wet Snow

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