NOTICE!

The Weatherzone forum has now closed and is in read-only mode until the 1st of November when it will close permanently. We would like to thank everyone who has contributed over the past 18 years.

If you would like to continue the discussion you can follow us on Facebook and Twitter or participate in discussions at AusWeather or Ski.com.au forums.

Page 1428 of 1434 < 1 2 ... 1426 1427 1428 1429 1430 ... 1433 1434 >
Topic Options
#1498418 - 05/05/2019 18:58 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Hey . Isn't this exciting . ACC g has 532 thickness over Adelaide region about midnight, thursday the 9th May.
Gee. There is even a reasonable precipitation in that region in that time frame as well. Low level snow.
Anyone opening a thread on this?
AAO is neutral and forecast to go positive. Hope that doesn't put a spanner in the works with a SE deflection.
WOW even into 4am 532 thickness into west Vic and up north of Mildura.Looks good for grampians, Ballarat ranges.
Over the coming days hoping the position and timing holds.
Good luck 'guys'. I'll be watching for sure.
Dunolly in west Vic has only ever had snow once l was told by the older farmers
What blows me away is the massive precipitation signal coinciding with this cold pool in west Vic at 532 thickness. Too amazing to be true one would think
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1498428 - 05/05/2019 20:34 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2285
Loc: Clare, SA
For Lofty you are generally looking at 5280 thickness for snowfall and even then it rarely settles unless the precipitation is quite heavy. I've never seen it colder than the October 2012 event and on that day the 5280 line made its way into the mid north with a 850-900m freezing level, yet despite this there was barely a true settling of snow on Lofty and precip wasn't in short supply, the bursts melted out between each other and the temps were hovering around 1-2. Lofty really does suck for snowfall. It seems everything must go right for something that's worthwhile seeing to occur.

In the mid north however I've seen snow settle to 750m and flakes to 600m with 5360ish thickness and a freezing level around 1350m. During this event 500mb temps were around -32 so it was a very deep cold pool to allow such low level snow in relatively warm temperatures.
Generally though I'm looking for the 5320 line to be well into the mid north with good precip to consider going for a look but it varies.

Whenever 850mb temps drop below -2 (it's important to remember heights vary with surface pressure so -2 in one event won't necessarily = -2 in another) Bryan is a pretty good chance. If there's precip in Clare and the temp is below 5.5-6 degrees @ the AWS it's cold enough for snow up there.
_________________________
My Blogging site.

http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

Top
#1498438 - 06/05/2019 03:10 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 4002
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
your'e certainly going to have good penetration for 532 and
looks to put you aroun 530ish, unfortunatley the 528 line
barely touches mt gambier. 500temps are certainly up there
(or should that be down there). curent models have the max
occurring early in the night and tapering off after midnight.
some models have good penetration from the second system
well up and into northern pastoral and central western nsw
although EC is not having a bar of it.
need someone to take a blowtorch to the waters off nw wa
or maybe instead of sending all that gas overseas just
light it up where it is.

victoria are going to do well from this too, early ski
season for them, their mountains are looking at a big dump.
and good rains all over exept maybe northern wimmera with
just some.

TH
_________________________



Top
#1498445 - 06/05/2019 10:15 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Bergasms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 409
Loc: South Plympton, Adelaide, Aus
'08 August lofty snowfall was the last time there was anything solid on the ground IIRC. Since then it's all been pretty light on in terms of what makes it down. http://sasnows.com/2008-snow-events/index.html .
I remember that one in 08 the fall happened at maybe 9PM in the last coldie of the night and then it remained on the ground till the morning because it got bloody cold overnight.

Only time i've ever seen ski tracks in SA as well, someone managed a couple metres on some no doubt scratched to buggery skis poke .
_________________________
I wish Mt Lofty was more lofty, another 2km or so would suffice.

Top
#1498539 - 07/05/2019 19:05 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
I will be adding this upcoming possible low level snow event to a thread on my blog on this topic.If it comes off.
I have incorporated some of your knowledge from above into the thread in the comments section
There is some historical stuff there that l have collected over the years for SA
https://weathercycles.wordpress.com/2015...1/#comment-7772
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1498820 - 12/05/2019 10:21 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
epthunda Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 389
Loc: Lock South Australia
Still early days but EC and Bom suggesting something significant next weekend possibly. Hopefully don't jinx it lol.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzstate&lc=sa&mt=ecmwf

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzstate&lc=sa&mt=accessg

Top
#1498961 - 14/05/2019 23:06 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
parklife Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2013
Posts: 138
Loc: Hazelwood Park
Yes the weekend looking wet with the remnants of TC Anne providing moisture combined with a passing cold front.
rain on horizon

Top
#1498990 - 15/05/2019 11:13 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Bergasms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 409
Loc: South Plympton, Adelaide, Aus
fingers crossed. I'll sacrifice some washing to Huey
_________________________
I wish Mt Lofty was more lofty, another 2km or so would suffice.

Top
#1498994 - 15/05/2019 12:03 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
*jr* Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/01/2011
Posts: 123
"rain on the horizon": its no bloody good on the horizon

Top
#1498997 - 15/05/2019 14:50 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2285
Loc: Clare, SA
With this next event looking increasingly likely and being quite widespread, overall May is looking like having some very solid totals for many areas. Just the start we needed.
_________________________
My Blogging site.

http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

Top
#1499027 - 15/05/2019 20:35 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACC g is giving the best of the NE flank of this low to southern SA

The tropical infeed evident.
The low SW of Adelaide on synoptic below here ( sunday 10am) is vertically stacked
The zonal sub tropical jet to its north and the sub polar jet to its south
unfortunately the westerly belt contracts south after sunday
So looks like just for you 'guys'
A point of interest is that it starts off as a cut of low from a tropical dip in isobars on friday night and transitions on to the westerly belt by sunday.


http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?unit=p26&type=mslp-precip&area=Au&model=CG
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1499074 - 17/05/2019 14:53 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
epthunda Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 389
Loc: Lock South Australia
Looks like a promising system especially for the west of the state. Are any of our gurus on here going to do a write up on this?

Top
#1499079 - 17/05/2019 17:16 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
The WZ report on this upcoming low looks better on EC than ACC
Here is the link with analysis and nice picture of forecast rainfall
I will add that ACC has the low tracking further east into west Victoria on sunday evening before dropping SE

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/wet-weekend-in-sa/529721

https://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/twc/Weekend%20rain%2020190517.png
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1499087 - 17/05/2019 23:12 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 4002
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
the general consensus of models is somewhat less than
enthusiastic over rainfall amounts across the se quadrant
of s.a.
gfs has never really been on board for this and now cmc
stands out like a pimple on a pumpkin.
it appears most places will be lucky to do better than 10mm
with maybe isolated pockets over that and the upper and
lower se districts somewhat better. even the moisture infeed
is piss weak and breaks off as it heads east.
luscious amounts like cmc predict are nice and juicy but
the pie in the sky usually ends up raining sausage rolls.

also interesting to note is not good news about the iod, if
it goes positive inland areas of se aus are in for a tough
time over the next 6 months and beyond. coastal areas of sa
will fare ok off fronts but places like the riverland,
upper ep and more northern areas will end up severly deficient.
lack of nw infeed will hit vic wimmera region very hard unless
they can score something down off the coral sea.

TH
_________________________



Top
#1499100 - 18/05/2019 22:23 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 301
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
29mm since 9.00am another great rain, very thankful... a lot of electrical activity as well winds easterly northeasterly not too strong..

Top
#1499104 - 19/05/2019 00:35 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 301
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
Its 12.04am and the third lot of fairly severe thunder storms and heavy rain this evening.....dogs terrified...

Top
#1499109 - 19/05/2019 06:03 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 301
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
Another 20mm , thats 49mm till 5.30 am this morning and still thunderstorms

Top
#1499110 - 19/05/2019 07:25 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 4002
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
so far most of a line west of cleve to victor harbour has
been nicely trashed and everything east is in waiting mode.
in naracoorte this weekend so not much happening here, if
i was back at reynella i would have prolly spent the night
somewhere around or south of normanville.
farmers on southern yp and ki will be as happy as southern ep
famers.
looks to be a chance for the mid north today too.

TH
_________________________



Top
#1499117 - 19/05/2019 13:24 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 4002
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
back in reynella now......
something worth a mention approacheth, nothing really organised,
cores are so numerous and small radar looks like its got acne,
i hear rumbles....lunch is required.

TH
_________________________



Top
#1499129 - 19/05/2019 21:58 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1740
Loc: Uleybury
Nice little storm over the top of me, 6.2mm from the storm, 2.2 prior so 8.4

Had one really close bolt, but others at least 6-7km away, closest one around 2km

Top
Page 1428 of 1434 < 1 2 ... 1426 1427 1428 1429 1430 ... 1433 1434 >


Moderator:  Helen, Lindsay Knowles, Markus, teckert 
Who's Online
0 registered (), 49 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
LightningGus, Mikezoom, Ploddy
Forum Stats
29947 Members
32 Forums
24194 Topics
1529243 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image