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#1498971 - 15/05/2019 07:56 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mcbobbings Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 109
The pattern since 2017 has been cold trending below average mins during May-September, but well above average daytime temps with little rain... I can't see anything different this year

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#1498975 - 15/05/2019 08:24 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Mcbobbings]
Adaminaby Angler Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 254
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Originally Posted By: Mcbobbings
The pattern since 2017 has been cold trending below average mins during May-September, but well above average daytime temps with little rain... I can't see anything different this year

Precisely my point.^

There is nothing to suggest that this cold minima, warm maxima, high-pressure May is anything remotely "extraordinary" for this time of year in this vast, sunburnt country of ours.
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1498977 - 15/05/2019 08:52 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mcbobbings Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 109
I would suggest the lack of Autumn and Winter rain the past 3 years (excluding March and June) is if not "extraordinary" at least somewhat unusual and concerning for farmers. If it continues for another 2-3 years I'd say it is extraordinary.

For April- May, the average rain is 245.1mm, the median is 186.8.

Since 2016 the data is as follows

2016- 162.2
2017- 112.6
2018- 46.4
2019- 25.8 (2 weeks 2 days left in May, models are hinting at perhaps another 20mm by month end)

As the data stands now, the overall average for the 4 years is 86.75, which is 35.4% of the long term average, and the median is 79.5, which is 42.6% of the long term median. Another 20mm at the end of this month won't make much difference to those numbers. Clearly drier than normal.

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#1498981 - 15/05/2019 09:36 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Mcbobbings]
Adaminaby Angler Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 254
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Originally Posted By: Mcbobbings
I would suggest the lack of Autumn and Winter rain the past 3 years (excluding March and June) is if not "extraordinary" at least somewhat unusual and concerning for farmers. If it continues for another 2-3 years I'd say it is extraordinary.

For April- May, the average rain is 245.1mm, the median is 186.8.

Since 2016 the data is as follows

2016- 162.2
2017- 112.6
2018- 46.4
2019- 25.8 (2 weeks 2 days left in May, models are hinting at perhaps another 20mm by month end)

As the data stands now, the overall average for the 4 years is 86.75, which is 35.4% of the long term average, and the median is 79.5, which is 42.6% of the long term median. Another 20mm at the end of this month won't make much difference to those numbers. Clearly drier than normal.


Robbo had stated that the warmth was "extraordinary", not the precipitation, which was dead-wrong by him to state. Especially for that Upper Lachlan-Oberon regional, of which the warmest May maximum was, in fact, back in 1967. What am I seeing from forecasts? Nothing at or above 20° C, and the record May high for Oberon Albion St. (formerly Springbank) was 23.1° C; 23.3° C for Gurnang State Forest—both in 1967.

And guess when Cabramurra's record May maximum was? 1967, with a reading of 18.9° C (which would mean ~20.5° C down here, of which it never even approahes nowadays in May). "Extraordinary warmth", indeed... poke

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#1498984 - 15/05/2019 10:42 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3950
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
May so far is certainly tracking closer to normal temperatures than any of the months from December to April did, both in NSW and nationally, although the coast has still been significantly warmer than average. Current projections have NSW 1.2 degrees warmer than average as of the 22nd, which probably equates to about 0.5-0.8 for the full month because the last week is usually the coldest.

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#1498999 - 15/05/2019 15:25 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 781
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
My remarks have been taken out of context. My fault for not making it clearer. I was referring to the number of consecutive days of well above average temperatures for mid-May in Sydney. In my area I wouldn't know, as there are no long term records available.

If the forecast holds out, Sydney will have had 10 days in a row of >= 23°C (> 4.5°C above the May av max) by Next Tuesday. The only other time this happened was in 2014, when there were 14 days >= 23°C - from May 16th to May 31st inclusive. So yes, if it happens it will be an extraordinary spell of warmth.

Agree that the current pattern is a continuation of what we've had so often in recent months with high pressure ridging. My barometer's needle seems to spend most of its time pointing to "Very Dry".

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#1499000 - 15/05/2019 15:41 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Rob G]
Adaminaby Angler Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 254
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Originally Posted By: Rob G
My remarks have been taken out of context. My fault for not making it clearer. I was referring to the number of consecutive days of well above average temperatures for mid-May in Sydney. In my area I wouldn't know, as there are no long term records available.

If the forecast holds out, Sydney will have had 10 days in a row of >= 23°C (> 4.5°C above the May av max) by Next Tuesday. The only other time this happened was in 2014, when there were 14 days >= 23°C - from May 16th to May 31st inclusive. So yes, if it happens it will be an extraordinary spell of warmth.

Agree that the current pattern is a continuation of what we've had so often in recent months with high pressure ridging. My barometer's needle seems to spend most of its time pointing to "Very Dry".

Righto, now it all makes sense. The coastline does seem consistently above-average as of late, particularly in maxima...thought you were referring to Porters Retreat, rather than Sydney.

Pardon the misunderstanding(s).
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1499003 - 15/05/2019 16:33 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3307
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Blame the SST’s which are keeping the coastal strip pleasant (it’s ridiculous really to say 23c is *warm* - been a lovely 20/21 here which is pretty much average or just above).

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#1499008 - 15/05/2019 16:49 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Adaminaby Angler]
Jac0b Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/12/2018
Posts: 112
This is a pretty interesting discussion - one thing I find to be common over the past few years is huge diurnal temperature ranges in specifically May, July, August and September. This is caused by minimums being below average and maximums being above average.

As said before, this pattern of weather is directly related to the consistent high pressure systems over eastern Australia.

Once the general pattern breaks, we'll definitely feel it. I'm hoping for at least some kind of rain in July and August this year, as the last few have been really dry.

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#1499015 - 15/05/2019 19:01 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 686
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
June always comes attached with rain imo, don't remember the last June that didn't have a decent drop in these parts at least. I feel though that's due to the positioning of highs to provide a more easterly subtropical flow which is more reliable. After that we are reliant on more tropical flow which is far from reliable where you have good and bad years.

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#1499030 - 15/05/2019 21:11 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
lab276 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 02/11/2018
Posts: 15
The Sydney forecast is appalling, 2014 all over again; 22, 23, 23, 23, 24, 26, 25. Where's Autumn? Where's the rain? This has been the pattern, bar a few exceptions since April 2017, and I'm pretty tired of it.

Someone on the previous page was talking about Japan, the lucky duckies over there have well defined and consistent seasons and plentiful rainfall. I'd much rather have their weather than ours tbh.

Also on the previous page Chinese Tallowood was mentioned. I've been looking for the name of the tree for years! We have an outstanding tree in our yard, still very green. Doesn't usually turn until quite a ways into June and still has plenty of leaves in July. But then doesn't grow new shoots until mid-September.

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#1499035 - 16/05/2019 07:21 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Morham Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 142
Loc: Penrith, NSW
The forecast heat for western Sydney next week looks hot. Is Sydney tracking for a record warm may? How far off is it?

Also, bloody water restrictions are on the cards. Warragamba is down 17% compared to last year. At about 55% now. Lucky its winter soon though.

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#1499038 - 16/05/2019 08:46 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3318
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
There is some low-medium cloud outside !! and if I squint hard enough I can make out a shower well out to sea (not for us).

My guess is cloud will burn off mid to late morning and back to clear skies and endless boredom. At least the lawns which were mowed on Saturday still look mowed.

In Taree over weekend for a wedding, may see an actual shower there late Friday.
_________________________
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http://ozthunder.com

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#1499040 - 16/05/2019 10:18 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3950
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
This year, it's southern WA which is running the dry conditions/big diurnal ranges combination - widely above average mean maximum for May to date but record or near-record low mins.

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#1499045 - 16/05/2019 14:28 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ben K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2012
Posts: 138
Loc: Central Coast, NSW
Boring.

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#1499048 - 16/05/2019 17:05 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4940
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
No weather for the foreseeable future according to this morning's model runs.

A bit boring but, with pleasantly cool nights and mornings and warm, sunny afternoons, it makes for very livable weather, great for outdoors. In the UK, this would be considered perfect Summer weather.

We do need rain, but if recent years are any guide, June will take care of that. Here are the June rainfalls at Sydney OH for 2007 to 2018 expressed as a percentage of the median for all years:

Code:
Year	% median
------------
2007	497%
2008	124%
2009	126%
2010	143%
2011	 91%
2012	238%
2013	308%
2014	 66%
2015	108%
2016	297%
2017	170%
2018	171%


So in the 12 years we had:
- one year well below median
- two years reasonably close
- one year ridiculously above the median
- the remaining 8 were significantly above the median

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#1499052 - 16/05/2019 20:32 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2175
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Love this weather. Freaking perfect.

As Steve777 said, June always seems to turn on the wet misery.

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#1499055 - 16/05/2019 21:28 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Morham Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 142
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Begone high pressure system of immovability!

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#1499056 - 16/05/2019 21:51 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 686
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Either way hopefully a bit of rain before the end of the month will go a long way towards priming the catchments for a probably wet June really need the dams to fill this cool season.

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#1499077 - 17/05/2019 15:33 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2175
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Another cracker of a day. Keep 'em coming.

We've lots of international visitors in the office this week and they have been blown away by the weather. Very nice to see Sydney turning it on for their stay.

Lucky for them there were no eclipses or other astronomical events this week.

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