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#1499017 - 15/05/2019 19:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
crikey>>>planetx
Hey. great you have an interest and prepared to step out of your comfort zone.
The maps you were looking at are surface synoptic charts.
Looking top down on the southern hemisphere side of earth.
Antartic in the centre, the polar belt of lows surrounding the antartic pole ,the belt of mid latitude highs and the tropical zone of low pressure up near the equator.
...
Comparing the changes in the 2 maps with a declining AAO over 3days
As one would expect the polar belt is expanding with a de lining AAO

and probably not what l expected.>> The mid latitude highs are becoming larger (not necessarily higher pressure)
Some increased excursion of the low pressure polar belt between the highs.
Checked jetstreams tonight.The tropical jet very zonal(non wavy) and contracted south. The polar jetstream , some increase in wavyness but minor this week. Jetstream streak speed increasing.
......
I have been foolish in 'jumping the gun' with conclusions as one should never preempt results.
here is another variable to consider
I Found this stratosphere(upper layer air) temperature anomaly
today. Notice the cold anomaly took place during our summer 2018/2019 severe warm dry weather and the notorious stalled Tasman high.
Another input to my research to consider.
The graph below is for the mid riff around the earth. Say rockhampton to equator in the SH and the same distance into the NH
cheers

BTW
I checked the 10day ACC and what looks like a sub polar excursion heading to the Bight around the 24th. So l just have to bide my time
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1499023 - 15/05/2019 19:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: crikey]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: crikey
BTW I checked the 10day ACC and what looks like a sub polar excursion heading to the Bight around the 24th. So l just have to bide my time

Might be the same widespread cold outbreak over southern and eastern inland parts of Australia that many members of the EC ensemble were going for towards the end of this month or start of next month (when I last checked yesterday).

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#1499033 - 15/05/2019 22:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: gleno71]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
After a fine day, showers and drizzly periods began moving ashore here around 3pm this afternoon. 20.2mm has fallen here since 9am.

Originally Posted By: gleno71
Looking at the BOM satview page, i'm trying to figure why there is so much cloud out as far as towards Roma , when the onshore flow isn't that deep, the uppers are stable, soundings showing dry air above 700hpa?
Looking at GFS's forecast sounding for 4pm at Roma, beginning around 2000m above the ground there was very moist air. However, it was quite shallow with an inversion beginning around 2700m, which would have restricted the vertical height of the clouds to that pocket of moist air.

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#1499061 - 17/05/2019 07:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE...17 MAY 2019 TIME..0735

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...16.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........93%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......15C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..SW 4kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1026.4Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY......15KM
CURRENT WEATHER.........8/8 cloud, distant showers.
RAIN SINCE 0900 THURSDAY..12.4mm.

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......25.0C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....16.3C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...16.3C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....16C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1024.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND GUST..S 29 kph at 1334
LAST 24 HOURS WHR SUMMARY...Slight showers commenced mid afternoon, increasing in intensity overnight then grading to rain periods before decreasing to overcast conditions after daybreak.

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#1499080 - 17/05/2019 18:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Remember that nov' 2018_march 2019 stalled Tasman high and the low onshore rainfall.
Well so far the driver situation was Pos AAO,a strong cooling of the equatorial stratosphere , a sudden stratospheric warming in the NH pole. and

a sudden massive drop in the SOI from positive to negative during that time period

So is a strong declining SOI known to reduce onshore rainfall on the east coast as a general rule?

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=SOI

I am noticing that on this Ec rainfall map we have rain signal on east coast from onshore this week.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/wet-weekend-in-sa/529721

Our current situation is
declining el nino symptoms in the 3.4 region
SOI has trended toward the positive
AAO has gone sharply negative

I wonder if this is the combination for wet onshore activity.?
The clouds were so thick and water laden today. Lots of cumulus around as well





Edited by crikey (17/05/2019 18:30)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1499083 - 17/05/2019 18:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: crikey]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: crikey
So is a strong declining SOI known to reduce onshore rainfall on the east coast as a general rule?

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=SOI

You can view the correlations between rainfall and rising/falling trends in ENSO phase here crikey: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonal-climate-outlook/rainfall-probabilities/

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#1499085 - 17/05/2019 19:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Appreciate that link Ken. Thnx. I will chew it over in the coming days',regards
Some 'beefy' showers have just come through at the tweed. Looked like not much on radar but we have been getting about 7mm past dark nearly every day over the past week.
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1499088 - 17/05/2019 23:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
weatherhobbiest Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/12/2018
Posts: 60
RAINFALL HERE AT SUNNYBANK HILLS SO FAR TODAY, FRIDAY, MAY 17, 2019 (since midnight):

9 mm.

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#1499091 - 18/05/2019 08:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE...18 MAY 2019 TIME..0800

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...16.8C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........88%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......15C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..SW 2kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1027.9Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY......35KM
CURRENT WEATHER.........4/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900 FRIDAY..0.8mm.

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP........23.6C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP.....14.0C
24 HOUR TEMP ANOMALY..MINUS 0.05C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN....14.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT.....15C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1025.9Hpa
LAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND GUST..SE 23 kph at 1447
LAST 24 HOURS WHR SUMMARY...Slight showers afternoon and overnight - clearing.


VOTE 1 - Weather.

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#1499095 - 18/05/2019 13:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1392
Loc: toowoomba
Mt Staplyton radar down again.

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#1499111 - 19/05/2019 08:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE...19 MAY 2019 TIME..0805

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...16.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........91%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......15C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..N 3kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1028.5Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY......15KM
CURRENT WEATHER.........8/8 cloud, slight drizzle.
RAIN SINCE 0900 SATURDAY..1.4mm.

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP........23.2C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP.....14.0C
24 HOUR TEMP ANOMALY..MINUS 0.25C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN....13.7C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT.....15C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1027.2Hpa
LAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND GUST..NE 34 kph at 1154
LAST 24 HOURS WHR SUMMARY...Slight showers afternoon and overnight.

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#1499121 - 19/05/2019 16:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Hey everyone, so quiet!
Thought I'll put this up to distract the boredom. Drove to Gatton early this moaning just after 6am, yes, moaning, wasnt happy, and saw the moon setting waaay too far to the South for my liking, usually sets due W of us over towards Hampton give or take a few degrees in winter when the moon sets more to the south. Didnt have a compass with me in the car but it just looked really strange. Might get up 5ish tomorrow and have another look.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (19/05/2019 16:46)

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#1499124 - 19/05/2019 19:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090









I'd say it's quiet because there's still virtually nothing happening weatherwise for the foreseeable future apart from some coastal showers smile

Above are some autumn-themed photos I took of the sweetgums and Red Maples in their autumn glory in Toowoomba this afternoon. Temp was a pleasant 18C at the time with feels-like temp of 13C.

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#1499127 - 19/05/2019 20:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Ken Kato]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 571
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Above are some autumn-themed photos I took of the sweetgums and Red Maples in their autumn glory in Toowoomba this afternoon. Temp was a pleasant 18C at the time with feels-like temp of 13C.
how ironic you post those pics Ken...on the way home from Jandowae today we drove through Toowoomba about 3.30 p.m this afternoon, i very nearly stopped my vehicle to photograph the Autumn colours of some trees I saw on the side of the street there. I wound down the window on my 4wd as I drove into town and made comment on how cool it felt outside, pushed the vehicles outside temp gauge button and it said 19C, but certainly felt cooler with the breeze of the vehicles movement.

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#1499133 - 20/05/2019 08:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE...20 MAY 2019 TIME..0810

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...16.4C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........90%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......15C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..W 3kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1027.2Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY......40KM
CURRENT WEATHER.........6/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900 SUNDAY..0.4mm.

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP........24.3C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP.....14.3C
24 HOUR TEMP ANOMALY..PLUS 0.45C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN....14.0C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT.....15C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1027.1Hpa
LAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND GUST..S 33 kph at 1408
LAST 24 HOURS WHR SUMMARY...Slight showers afternoon and overnight.

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#1499134 - 20/05/2019 08:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
Nice pics Ken

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#1499135 - 20/05/2019 09:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Pouring rain down here.Heavy showers during the night also . . . 2 weeks of nocturnal showers.A different groundhog pattern for a change.

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#1499136 - 20/05/2019 09:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
So far only one day in May without measured rainfall at Sunshine Coast Airport. April had 5 or 6 (one day missing measurement). No day over 40mm of rain. This compares to the groundhoug day weather of January - 30 days without rain, one with 0.4mm, and every day max between 29.1 and 30.4.

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#1499137 - 20/05/2019 09:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Too true Mike.The Radar showing nothing much at all on Marburg and Grafton sites.Think this subject was brought up once before but we just had about half an hour of soaking rain.

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#1499139 - 20/05/2019 12:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Great pictures Ken. My wife has coerced me a couple of times to drive her around Toowoomba to take pics of the trees. Yes Namarrkun, the wind in Toowoomba always seems to feel cooler than it is. This weather pattern seems to have no end. If we start getting westerlies and frosts without rain when winter arrives it's going to be a cruel winter away from the coast.

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