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#1499575 - 27/05/2019 20:49 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Current feels like temp here is 0c!

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#1499579 - 27/05/2019 21:09 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The snow videos here seem to be showing proper, fluffy snow, big flakes, even if it isn't settling.

My niece sent me this picture of snow in a playground at Jindabyne (915 metres). Again, it doesn't seem to be settling but a good effort for May, hopefully a harbinger of things to come:



Edited by Steve777 (27/05/2019 21:10)

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#1499583 - 27/05/2019 22:08 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
alby_14 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2005
Posts: 311
Loc: Bathurst, NSW
Driving home from Orange to Bathurst this morning the temp dropped from 5 degrees to 3. Fairly constant rain and drizzle with the odd smattering of borderline snowflakes half way home. Had the 3 year old with me so decided to forego a warm house and chanced finding some snow at Oberon. Started encountering some flakes about 10km out of Oberon and by the time we arrived it was just settling in town. Wasn't alot, but still nice to see something. A hot chocolate and some deep fried fatty goodness warmed us up before we headed home and hour later with the snow already melting.




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#1499594 - 28/05/2019 08:28 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
MSLP chart looks good for late Wednesday into Thursday morning. If there’s a bit of moisture could be a nice little ‘round 2’

As some other’s have mentioned the May 2000 event, in a memory stretching from the late 80’s to 2017 in the BM’s, it was probably just about the best snow and general cold event I experienced there. The heavy snowfall of July 2015 was up there, but I think the May event just pipped it for the lower temps and snow at lower elevations.

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#1499598 - 28/05/2019 09:45 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Mcbobbings Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 134
Another recent good event was the October 2012 event, especially given it was out of Season.

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#1499601 - 28/05/2019 11:33 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Wednesday / Thursday is looking very interesting given the deep fetch of those winds. If there's some moisture we could see decent low level falls right up to around the BM's and maybe Barringtons. Should also give some May temps a shake now that there's been 2 days of cold temps preceding it.

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#1499603 - 28/05/2019 14:18 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 178
Loc: Bowral
Thursday morning has the potential to be very cold across the CTs, SH and western Sydney areas with those very cold 850mb temps still hanging around. Cloud cover and winds should have died down by that time, but it all depends on the timing of when this happens! Might be able to get my own snowgun out for the first time this winter grin

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#1499606 - 28/05/2019 15:57 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
GFS has even colder air coming through 10 days out with the 528 line reaching the CT's....bitter!

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#1499607 - 28/05/2019 16:33 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 792
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
All up 12mm here over the past two days, falling as rain and snow.
The cold outbreak IMO is overdue, considering how warm the last two weeks have been. This westerly regime is good for us rain wise, but the cold isn’t great for the stock.

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#1499608 - 28/05/2019 16:54 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Not a drop of rain in Sydney in 22 days and just 15 mm in the last 46 days, compared to about 180 mm you would expect over a month and a half at this time of year. The forecast shows possible showers on the weekend, but these look hot or miss and basically coastal.

GFS shows another front late tomorrow into Thursday, maybe more tableland snow, but dry on the coast. Further out, as Gringos says, it shows a major cold outbreak in about 10 days - to be taken with a grain of salt. After that it shows a high pressure system planting itself over SE Australia out to the end of the run.

EDIT: 0.4mm fell at Sydney Airport late this morning. It seemed to be clear skies all day here, although a temperature dip at the Airport at 11:30 is consistent with a bit of rain.


Edited by Steve777 (28/05/2019 16:57)

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#1499611 - 28/05/2019 17:58 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 759
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Thursday morning looks incredibly cold.. Too bad the air is so dry otherwise places like Canberra may even get some flurries.

EDIT: Just looked into next week Thursday morning GFS. Thats just too good to be true ahha. 850mb temps down to -6c and 700mb down to -15c.


Edited by Sidney (28/05/2019 18:05)

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#1499614 - 28/05/2019 18:53 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Mcbobbings Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 134
GFS always throws up monster fronts, but rarely gets them right. I do say rarely, I remember looking at gfs 10 or 11 days out from that big front that hit WA over Easter and thinking that you’d never get snow in WA in April but what do you know! I still expect this front to disappear.

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#1499620 - 28/05/2019 19:25 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Steve777]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2202
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Not a drop of rain in Sydney in 22 days and just 15 mm in the last 46 days, compared to about 180 mm you would expect over a month and a half at this time of year. The forecast shows possible showers on the weekend, but these look hot or miss and basically coastal.

EDIT: 0.4mm fell at Sydney Airport late this morning. It seemed to be clear skies all day here, although a temperature dip at the Airport at 11:30 is consistent with a bit of rain.

That 0.4mm at the airport is false. Clear skies all day including the airport.

Also let's not forget how wet March was. Most of Sydney received 150-300mm. My 3, 6 and 12 month totals are running near the long term average.
_________________________
PWS
AWEKAS
WOW

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#1499622 - 28/05/2019 19:44 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8802
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
It was on this day in 2000, the day of the big snow storm

http://www.australianweathernews.com/news/2000/05/20000528.html

The forecast chart for tomorrow looks strikingly similar, although moisture appears to be lacking and could mostly affect VIC.

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#1499623 - 28/05/2019 19:47 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Starting to think late tomorrow night might deliver for the CT's. Maybe 5-10cm's on the ground in the usual places.

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#1499629 - 28/05/2019 20:52 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Eigerwand]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Starting to think late tomorrow night might deliver for the CT's. Maybe 5-10cm's on the ground in the usual places.


I reckon about 3cm max, but mostly around 1-2cm above 1000m. I just don't see the moisture for 5-10cm and the 500mb cold pool doesn't reach the CT's so it will be pretty stable.

Cool pics Steve

Also the wind is back to being regularly audible from inside after a brief hiatus earlier tonight. Gusting up to almost 70km/h and will probably get stronger.


Edited by Wave Rider (28/05/2019 20:54)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1499631 - 28/05/2019 21:04 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Sidney]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Originally Posted By: Sidney
Thursday morning looks incredibly cold.. Too bad the air is so dry otherwise places like Canberra may even get some flurries.

EDIT: Just looked into next week Thursday morning GFS. Thats just too good to be true ahha. 850mb temps down to -6c and 700mb down to -15c.


I'd usually dismiss it completely but 850mb temps are expected to be about 0-2°C from Monday for a few days before Thursday's front so it could be really interesting to see what happens when the air is already fairly cold. In fact Monday arvo and even Wednesday morning look quite close to snow in the CT's except too dry.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1499680 - 29/05/2019 13:31 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Next front heading this way, looks like later tonight it'll push through, some very cold air with it (apparently there have been low level snow falls in Tas & Vic already).

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#1499683 - 29/05/2019 14:08 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Hearing chat about prospects for sleet in Melbourne CBD today? That would be extraordinary, surely?

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#1499684 - 29/05/2019 14:33 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Change not far away now - dark stratocu screaming in from the south west and wind increasing. Radar looks to have showers, maybe even flurries(?) over the Oberan plateau. 18.5 here only 14.9 in Nowra and plummeting.

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