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#1499724 - 29/05/2019 20:25 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Blair Trewin]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6397
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Undercatch of snow in wind-exposed places is a well-known problem (and one for which there's no clear solution). I did a study a while back (comparing the exposed Falls Creek AWS with the more sheltered Rocky Valley site) which estimated the undercatch of snow at the AWS at somewhere between 50% and 70%.


Wow. That's massive, but not surprising. I suspected as much.
Thanks for the follow up Blair.

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#1499725 - 29/05/2019 20:26 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Nick Sykes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2001
Posts: 685
Loc: Franklin, ACT
Very cold in Canberra tonight and surprisingly wet, still quite a few showers around, no snow yet. No models had precipitation at this time, usually dries out in a SW flow here. Temps are dropping in in the south, Tidbinbilla at 834m 0.3C with showers about, likely snow.

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#1499729 - 29/05/2019 21:28 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Blair Trewin]
warrie Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 14
Alas the Thredbo AWS was out of action for 6 days beginning May 30th 1977 for min and 6 days for max from 28th. Right at the critical time.LOL Fast forward to recent winters and the precipitation reading is dodgy to say the least at recording snowfall.....W

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#1499733 - 29/05/2019 22:05 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3983
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
In those days it wasn't an AWS (and indeed there was a period when observations were done at the top in winter and the village in summer).

All the ski resorts have very patchy observations outside ski season before AWS installation (which is why most of the Australian record low temperatures for warm-season months have been set post-1990). Cabramurra, run by Snowy Hydro before it was automated, is the only alpine site with decent year-round observations from the manual era.


Edited by Blair Trewin (29/05/2019 22:06)

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#1499734 - 29/05/2019 22:10 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7364
Perisher ski resort will now open this Friday. Not surprising when there's been so much snow, maybe the best start to the season in years.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1499735 - 29/05/2019 22:19 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
alby_14 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2005
Posts: 311
Loc: Bathurst, NSW
Some precip made it as far north as Warren this arvo as a thin band of light rain and showers, and colder winds, moved through with the front. Am working out in the Macquarie Marshes for a few days, enough h2o to cause some puddles in town. Not enough to do any good. Still, beats the 45c days and blowing dust of summer... I guess...


Edited by alby_14 (29/05/2019 22:21)

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#1499736 - 29/05/2019 22:30 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Jimi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 1129
Loc: Killara
Blair can you tell us what happened to the Charlotte Pass station? The site of our coldest temp doesn't exist any more.

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#1499738 - 29/05/2019 22:38 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Feels like 1c here atm and it sure does! Freaking cold.

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#1499739 - 29/05/2019 22:39 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3983
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
I don't think anyone could be found to do the observations, and with an AWS already at Perisher it wasn't a high priority for replacement.

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#1499741 - 29/05/2019 23:54 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
The wind is ripping through here right now, the feels like temp is currently -2c! That’s wind chill of 12c! Impressive.


Edited by Kino (29/05/2019 23:55)

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#1499743 - 30/05/2019 07:51 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 523
Some cold temps this morning and high humidities, Orange Ap at -0.2C and 93%, but alas, I imagine things will start dry out now.

Don’t get me started on the feels like temp. It seems to be something that has gained ground in mainstream media as a way of sensationalising the weather. Wish it weren’t so widely reported.

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#1499745 - 30/05/2019 08:03 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
So you don’t believe in wind chill - the science is settled 🙄🤔🙄🤦🏻‍♂️

One of the rare occasions Wollongong is colder than Albion Park this morning, bottoming out at 7.8, nearly 6c below average.

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#1499754 - 30/05/2019 09:27 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Eigerwand]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 365
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Some cold temps this morning and high humidities, Orange Ap at -0.2C and 93%, but alas, I imagine things will start dry out now.

Don’t get me started on the feels like temp. It seems to be something that has gained ground in mainstream media as a way of sensationalising the weather. Wish it weren’t so widely reported.

Righto, I don't believe in petty "feels-like" readings either, but that's not what the mainstream media tends to sensationalise. wink
_________________________
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#1499757 - 30/05/2019 09:44 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
At 8.7° earlier this morning, it was the coldest minimum at Sydney OH so far this year and the coldest since September 27. Most of Sydney bottomed out around 5° - 7°, apart from a couple of cold hollows out of the wind where is dropped to 2° - 3°.

It looks like Sydney will finish May with temperature averages of 12.8° - 22.6°, respectively +0.8° and +2.3° with respect to 1961-1990 averages and +0.3 to +2.6 with respect to recent averages (1981-2010). It looks like there'll be no rain before 9:00 tomorrow, which means that Sydney will finish the month with 14.6 mm of rain, less than 15% of the 1981-2010 average.

The broader pattern for Sydney and nearby areas looks similar, minima about average, maxima about 2 above, and very dry.

Another thing - no cold maxima. The coolest maximum for most places near sea level, at about 18-19 today, will only be slightly below average.

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#1499776 - 30/05/2019 18:47 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Swag of cold min records on offer tonight - starting with Wollongong where it’s already only 9.6c, 4 below average, and it’s just past 630pm! Insane.

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#1499781 - 30/05/2019 20:31 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
some very steep drops in temps' in some places currently
Port Macquarie..dropped 10deg c in 3 hrs..8pm 3.2 deg c
Lismore has dropped 8deg in 3 hts. Currently 3deg c
horsley park dropped 5deg in 3 hrs

Wind has decreased in some of those places.

Armidale 0.7deg c at 7pm
http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/observations/nswall.shtml?ref=hdr
..
ACC g presenting with an ECL for next mon 3rd june and ' tues'
One to watch
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?unit=p27&type=mslp-precip&area=Au&model=CG .


Edited by crikey (30/05/2019 20:32)
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#1499817 - 31/05/2019 10:07 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Fujita Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/11/2005
Posts: 146
Loc: Randwick, NSW
In those days it wasn't an AWS (and indeed there was a period when observations were done at the top in winter and the village in summer).

All the ski resorts have very patchy observations outside ski season before AWS installation (which is why most of the Australian record low temperatures for warm-season months have been set post-1990). Cabramurra, run by Snowy Hydro before it was automated, is the only alpine site with decent year-round observations from the manual era.


Edited by Blair Trewin (29-05-2019 22:06)


Blair FYI:
Regarding NSW alpine sites from manual days, there are 2 sites with decent year round obs, Kosciuszko Chalet and Kiandra. However these are on original paper documents (F68s) stored in the NSW Archives. I found them when doing some consultative work for Bureau in 2011. Kosc Chalet dates fro 1911 until it burnt down in early 50s. Kiandra since 1922. All daily readings of temps, rain and some visual obs. In process of transcribing them onto my laptop. Would be a valuable addition to Bureau's database. Mike.

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#1499821 - 31/05/2019 11:27 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Kino]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 792
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
Originally Posted By: Kino
Swag of cold min records on offer tonight - starting with Wollongong where it’s already only 9.6c, 4 below average, and it’s just past 630pm! Insane.

Seems the records you expected didn't evenutate - thanks in part to cloud in the wake of the cold fronts still covering a decent portion of the state. The only noteworthy minimum was Glen Innes Airport with a low of -9.8°C, equalling the record set on 31 May 2006.

Originally Posted By: Steve777
The broader pattern for Sydney and nearby areas looks similar, minima about average, maxima about 2 above, and very dry.

May 2019 in Sydney is very likely to be the 4 warmest on record in terms of average temperature. Only other years as warm: 1958, 2017 and 2007. Even the average minimum was warm (in 2nd decile), despite very dry conditions and dominant HP ridges that should promote cold nights. There are similarities with 1958, the warmest Sydney May on record, which was also very dry with mild nights and warm days.

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#1499823 - 31/05/2019 12:34 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Rob G]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I think that the Bankstown site is a good one to represent 'Sydney'. It has 50 years of records at the same site, is online and has a near complete record. Sydney Airport is good, but seems to be increasingly UHI-affected.

For May 2019, temperatures there are tracking 8.7 to 22.5.
Assuming that today's maximum is close to 20, that's how it will finish. These values are respectively -0.7 to +1.9 with regard to 1968-2018 means.

Note: there's a missing maximum for the 22nd, which would have been about 25, increasing the average max by 0.1

Regarding Sydney OH, I think that long term cool month averages for maxima are now practically meaningless. We need to at least disregard anything before the 1917 site move. Last year I downloaded its stats into a spreadsheet and calculated 30 and 50 year averages to compare to other sites. For May, the 1968-2018 average min-max are 11.9 to 20.6. May 2019 looks like finishing +0.9 and +2.0 with regard to these.

Note: OH Maxima have been above this average every May since 2012.

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#1499825 - 31/05/2019 13:24 Re: NSW Cold Outbreak - 27/5/2019 --> 2/6/2019 [Re: Rob G]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Rob G
Originally Posted By: Kino
Swag of cold min records on offer tonight - starting with Wollongong where it’s already only 9.6c, 4 below average, and it’s just past 630pm! Insane.

Seems the records you expected didn't evenutate - thanks in part to cloud in the wake of the cold fronts still covering a decent portion of the state. The only noteworthy minimum was Glen Innes Airport with a low of -9.8°C, equalling the record set on 31 May 2006.

Originally Posted By: Steve777
The broader pattern for Sydney and nearby areas looks similar, minima about average, maxima about 2 above, and very dry.

May 2019 in Sydney is very likely to be the 4 warmest on record in terms of average temperature. Only other years as warm: 1958, 2017 and 2007. Even the average minimum was warm (in 2nd decile), despite very dry conditions and dominant HP ridges that should promote cold nights. There are similarities with 1958, the warmest Sydney May on record, which was also very dry with mild nights and warm days.


Ummm wrong. Moss Vale, Cowra, Young, Port Macquarie, Kempsey all got records, some smashed them, including Young which stood since 1977...


Edited by Kino (31/05/2019 13:25)

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