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#1499934 - 02/06/2019 17:55 NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A cold front will move across NSW during tomorrow (Monday June 3), bringing strong, cold S-SW winds in its wake. A low will form in the Tasman off the South coast on the 3rd and drift Northwards before rapidly moving away towards NZ on Wednesday 5th.

Snow is forecast on the Central and Southern ranges down to 900 metres from tomorrow afternoon, extending to the Northern ranges overnight.

Rainfall will be basically coastal, dropping away rapidly as you move inland.

Code:
Forecast rainfall totals:

Sydney       38 - 73
Wollongong   43 - 85
Newcastle    35 - 67
Penrith      10 - 25
Bathurst      3 -  8
Canberra      3 -  9

The action is expected to be over by Thursday 6th, apart from some lingering coastal showers. I've allowed the extra day just in case.


Edited by Seabreeze (03/06/2019 23:58)
Edit Reason: title edit

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#1499937 - 02/06/2019 18:01 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6397
Loc: Dural
Thanks Steve for starting.

What I've found enticing about this event is the embedded troughs being flung up from the south to the west of the low once it forms in the Tasman.
The BOM 4-dayer shows this well today.
I'm expecting Monday evening and Tuesday to be feeling particularly cold.


Edited by Homer (02/06/2019 18:03)

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#1499941 - 02/06/2019 19:09 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Good thread, Iím not convinced as yet re the ECL - 50km further east than progged and we will see nothing other than some wind and overcast conditions.

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#1499942 - 02/06/2019 19:14 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS and DAMAGING SURF

For people in parts of Mid North Coast, Hunter, Metropolitan, Illawarra and South Coast Forecast Districts.

Issued at 4:30 pm Sunday, 2 June 2019.

DANGEROUS COASTAL WINDS AND WAVES FROM LATE MONDAY

Weather Situation: A front crossing the state today will deepen into a low pressure system off the southern half of the coast later Monday. A trough associated with the low will sweep from south to north during Tuesday, generating vigorous southerly winds and dangerous surf.

DAMAGING WINDS averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h are expected to develop along the coastal fringe in the far south from late Monday and extend north during Tuesday. Winds are expected to ease from the south later Tuesday.

HEAVY SURF, in excess of 5 metres in the surf zone, may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion along the south coast from late Monday, then extend further north during Tuesday. People should stay well away from the surf and surf exposed areas. South facing beaches will be the most affected.

Locations which may be affected include Seal Rocks, Newcastle, Gosford, Sydney, Wollongong and Batemans Bay.

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#1499943 - 02/06/2019 19:17 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 737
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Seems like that negative SAM and it's lag is finally kicking into gear, and for a change those warm SSTs will provide some fuel.

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#1499951 - 02/06/2019 20:55 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 178
Loc: Bowral
Yr.no (ECMWF) still has on and off snow showers for here in Bowral beginning at 7pm tomorrow and possibly continuing until about 1am Tuesday! Will be very interesting how it all pans out due to the sheer amount of moisture which will be around at these low temps. I've seen worse setups produce big snowfalls in odd places

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#1499957 - 02/06/2019 23:36 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7364
I was puzzled about the lack of discussion regarding this event but I was refreshing the old thread!

It's certainly a pretty odd system coming up. GFS meanwhile would suggest it's too warm to snow in the SH by the 850mb temps but some of these types of systems can be unimpressive at 850mb but very cold at 900mb like 14th October 2014 when Lithgow and Blackheath got a lot of (unforecasted) snow. The way the cold pool moves in more from the west and pushes to the NT's rather than a classic SW change is a little bit July 2015-ish too. Speaking of the NT's, it seems to be pretty likely that Armidale and surrounds will get a few cm's of snow.

I think I'm just going to sit back and watch it unfold. Being such a complex system, the models are probably having trouble especially GFS which isn't overly high resolution compared with say Access-R.

Interesting that the WZ hourly forecast shows thunderstorms in a lot of locations I've checked for Tuesday morning including the coast and tablelands.


Edited by Wave Rider (02/06/2019 23:44)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1499960 - 03/06/2019 07:48 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2983
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Certainly looking like a period of intense wind tomorrow morning. eek
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#1499961 - 03/06/2019 07:49 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 758
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Bit of rain overnight. A bit of steam now from the sun coming up.

Looking up Windy.ty looks like EC reckons .5cm of snow for Bowral. Would be interesting what occurs tomorrow morning especially for areas around Robertson which reaches above 800m ASL.

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#1499962 - 03/06/2019 07:50 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1276
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
20.2mm recorded to 9am Sunday, but only 0.2mm since then.
This is despite some good solid showers yesterday in Maitland, I had to go to East Maitland and then to Bunnings -where there was definitely a few mm of rain, but obviously did not hit the Airport some 10Ks away - which only recorded 0.2mm or a trace.
This is one of the hazards with the cost cutting procedures of moving weather stations to airports.

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#1499967 - 03/06/2019 09:15 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I see the WxZone forecast has upgraded overnight - i'm liking the structure of the upper low so far on satpic - defined cyclonic curve - not the usual sloppy mess we see slipping over land.

Forever hopeful as we desperately need rain and some interesting weather but still skeptical as location location location all too critical with these events.


Edited by Kino (03/06/2019 09:16)

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#1499969 - 03/06/2019 10:37 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 178
Loc: Bowral
Opticast progging a top of 7 and a low of 2 for tomorrow for Bowral. Don't see forecast maxs that low for here too often!

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#1499977 - 03/06/2019 12:10 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Can the Mod's edit the thread title to more reflect the nature of the activity please?

Should be Upper Low - Deep ECL Mon 3/6 --> or something

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#1499978 - 03/06/2019 12:27 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Northwesterly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/01/2015
Posts: 79
Loc: Stanhope Gardens
Currently in Sunny Corner, 3íc is the present temperature. Had a few showers roll through but the temperature would not drop any further. Bit of sleet in the showers but thatís about it. Looking at Weatherunderground I cannot see any lower temperatures so maybe a while if at all before it snows.
Heading back to Sydney now.

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#1499979 - 03/06/2019 12:31 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 758
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Radar looks good for areas like kangara walls. Which is at a similar elevation as mt trickett. Id say it would do well tommorow morning aswell when the moisture streams in from thr ocean.

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#1499981 - 03/06/2019 12:34 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7364
Some storms moving over the Northern beaches of Sydney at present.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1499983 - 03/06/2019 12:36 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Manly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/03/2002
Posts: 147
Loc: Manly, on the Northern Beaches...
Bucketing down in Manly with very squally winds at the moment.

..and thundering!


Edited by Manly (03/06/2019 12:37)

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#1499984 - 03/06/2019 12:39 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Some light rain here, also some rumbles. The main cell is passing to my North,

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#1499985 - 03/06/2019 12:43 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 758
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Terry hills down to 9.7c from that storm. And a 50kmhr gust.

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#1499986 - 03/06/2019 12:48 Re: NSW/ACT - Tasman Low / Upper Low bringing Rain, Tableland Snow and some Storms - June 3-6, 2019 [Re: Steve777]
kathrynsview Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 31/07/2011
Posts: 27
Loc: NEWPORT
Wind came up, rain came down about 15 minutes ago.
One very loud crack of thunder a minute ago and the sun is now out, no wind.

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