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#1500383 - 09/06/2019 10:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7852
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Sick of this warm-neutral crap tbh. What will it take to push us back to a cool episode again?

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#1500389 - 09/06/2019 14:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19003
Loc: The Beach.
Definitely warming along the thermocline beneath the dateline.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1500403 - 10/06/2019 01:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
amphetamarine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2004
Posts: 334
Loc: Cairns
Sea volcano.

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#1500559 - 13/06/2019 10:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3788
Loc: Buderim
MJO has continued through the La Nina friendly Indian Ocean zones, and even stalled briefly.



However this is resulting in only average trade winds and minimal cooling of the central pacific.



Meanwhile the subsurface cool water have been replaced by subsurface warmth as a result of the previous WWB. However historically a WWB of that size in a multi-year warm set up would result in a larger Kelvin wave, maybe something more like the previous warm wave through Feb/March.



Curiously there is quite a lot of subsurface warmth in the NW of the TAO zone. This typically occurs during el nino to la nina transition years, but can also occur in multi-year warm years. It is hard to understand why this water has warmed. Perhaps there is some Rosby wave activity pushing warm water back into the west despite the recent westerlies trying to push it the other way. Perhaps the warm water came from further north. A strong WWB might be able to push this warm subsurface into the equator and potentially strengthen future warm kelvin waves.



GFS and CFS had previously hinted at trade winds returning to normal on a more extended basis allowing a possible return towards true neutral, however forecasts at all ranges show a return of further westerly activity and no easing of the warmth in the forecast period.



Generally looking at model forecasts there is some hint of conditions cooling towards the east of the Pacific, but all models seem to maintain nino 4 at current levels.

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#1500560 - 13/06/2019 10:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3418
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I'm surprised anyone still relies on CFSv2 as it has been horrendously wrong - only 2 weeks ago it was forecasting significant cooling to neutral levels


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#1500563 - 13/06/2019 11:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8020
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I note SST at E side of Nino.3 is now cooled to 23C. Plenty of trade winds at that location, so I expect Nino.3 to cool over the next week or so.

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#1500602 - 14/06/2019 17:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3788
Loc: Buderim
A little bit more digging into how various experts/agencies consider the current event, using a google NEWS search for modoki.

Current event counts as modoki according to NASA, with a clear atmospheric response typical of Modoki, although this report is from April.

According to Indian Metereological Agency current conditions are weak el nino.

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#1500606 - 14/06/2019 21:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3418
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
So even the experts can’t agree ergo it’s just warm neutral. Close but no cigar.

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#1500611 - 15/06/2019 06:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3788
Loc: Buderim
The experts don't agree, therefore the experts that agree with Kino are right.

Of course.

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#1500615 - 15/06/2019 08:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 473
Looking at the current synoptic charts it looks to me like the Hadley Cell Expansion theory makes a pretty good fit to current weather conditions across the country. I note in the last SST chart Mike put up most of the Pacific and Indian oceans are on the warmer side.

Seems to me it all fits rather well with the theory; the polar front becomes more wavey as the temp differential between the poles and equator decreases, resulting in the frontal action we saw the other week but then the flip side is long periods stuck in an enormously large ‘horse latitude’ as per nearly the last 2 weeks with little sign of change.

Tuesday’s chart has highs of 1029hpa sitting as far south as the the southern tip of South Island NZ, more than 45S....

A far more compelling explanation than weak El Niño etc.

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#1500620 - 15/06/2019 11:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3418
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
The experts don't agree, therefore the experts that agree with Kino are right.

Of course.


Oh the irony of this statement....the guy who said Modoki, proved wrong, then switched to El Niño and still wrong so shops around on Google for someone who agrees with him. 😂😂😂😂😂😂

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#1500621 - 15/06/2019 11:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Eigerwand]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3418
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Looking at the current synoptic charts it looks to me like the Hadley Cell Expansion theory makes a pretty good fit to current weather conditions across the country. I note in the last SST chart Mike put up most of the Pacific and Indian oceans are on the warmer side.

Seems to me it all fits rather well with the theory; the polar front becomes more wavey as the temp differential between the poles and equator decreases, resulting in the frontal action we saw the other week but then the flip side is long periods stuck in an enormously large ‘horse latitude’ as per nearly the last 2 weeks with little sign of change.

Tuesday’s chart has highs of 1029hpa sitting as far south as the the southern tip of South Island NZ, more than 45S....

A far more compelling explanation than weak El Niño etc.



Interesting analysis....and what is causing the expansion, that’s the Q?

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#1500631 - 15/06/2019 17:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3788
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino


Oh the irony of this statement....the guy who said Modoki, proved wrong, then switched to El Niño and still wrong so shops around on Google for someone who agrees with him. 😂😂😂😂😂😂


No one proved me wrong about modoki. The only argument raised was that it is warm in the east, which totally ignores the fact that all previous modoki el ninos have been warm in the east. Most events for the entire period, and 2004 being the prime exception with cool anomalies in the east, but only for a few months. The event was a moderately strong modoki event, reaching a peak modoki index of 0.55 compared to a threshold of just under 0.3.

I have never said this is specifically an el nino. It is not an el nino according to classical east based criteria as specified by BOM, but is by weaker criteria specified by NCEP. However I have repeatedly compared current conditions to an el nino, and expected that generally the future behaviour should continue to be quite el nino like. Every time I make a comparsion to el nino conditions you come out with your 'no el nino' claims, despite the fact that multiple agencies have declared el nino, and the one agency that has said that el nino like conditions exist. Therefore all agencies clearly agree that comparing current conditions to an el nino event is appropriate.

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#1500635 - 15/06/2019 18:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8020
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Mike - If you've never said this event was an El Nino, you certainly quoted lots of agencies that thought it was!

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#1500636 - 15/06/2019 18:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3418
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
So “multi year Nino events” doesn’t count? 😂😂😂😂😂

👀

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#1500645 - 15/06/2019 22:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3418
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
FWIW Mt Sinabung has erupted again, ash cloud 7km into the sky.

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#1500648 - 16/06/2019 07:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3788
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
So “multi year Nino events” doesn’t count? 😂😂😂😂😂

👀


I compared current conditions to those in a multi-year el nino event. The similarities are obvious. I never said we were actually in a multi-year el nino event.

Originally Posted By: Petros
Mike - If you've never said this event was an El Nino, you certainly quoted lots of agencies that thought it was!


In response to Kino claiming 'no el nino' everytime I compare current conditions to an el nino.

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#1500652 - 16/06/2019 08:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3418
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Kino
FWIW Mt Sinabung has erupted again, ash cloud 7km into the sky.


Video - https://twitter.com/rt_com/status/1139736788317147142?s=21

And Mike, please don’t misrepresent me - I’ve always said BoM have said no El Niño.

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#1500668 - 16/06/2019 10:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8020
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Do agree that current conditions of late, seems to be worse than el nino for large areas of Aus.

Kino - volcanic ash will certainly add the X factor to future climate trend, a quick google provides plenty of speculation that this looming solar minimum might be the catalyst.

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#1500681 - 16/06/2019 13:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7852
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
No idea what the hell is going on on the subsurface: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDYOC007.gif

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