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#1500519 - 12/06/2019 17:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1339
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Thanks rwm
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1500520 - 12/06/2019 17:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7852
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Must be some sort of bug in the BSCH graphics because GFS actually looks nothing like that and GFS-FV3 has about 1/4 of that amount.

I also forgot to mention in my previous post that in winter we usually at least need an onshore component in the lower-levels to feed into such upper troughs, something that's not as common during the winter months, otherwise we just end up with a band of high cloud / light rain.

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#1500551 - 13/06/2019 08:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5125
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE...13 JUN 2019 TIME..0815

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...16.4C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........89%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......15C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..NW 2Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1022.3Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY......15KM, smoke haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900 WEDNESDAY....0.2mm(dew).

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP........23.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP.....12.4C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN....12.3C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT.... 14C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1022.8Hpa
MAX WIND GUST LAST 24 HOURS..E 20 Kph at 1413
LAST 24 HOURS WEATHER....Early fog patches with smoke haze.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11.4(150),Feb47.0(152),Mar285.6(136),Apr97.0(92),May37.4(89),Jun25.0(77)YTD503.4(696)

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#1500552 - 13/06/2019 08:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Un_stable]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6057
Originally Posted By: Un_stable
pic as requested crazy


That problem is due to the fact that the 3-hourly and 1-hourly precip forecasts from the newly upgraded GFS (FV3) now use accumulated precip starting from model run time by default rather than for individual forecast time steps as was previously the case.

It actually caught me out as well earlier this year when I was using my own scripts to display FV3 precip data and wondered why the rainfall amounts looked so huge until I realised what was going on and adjusted my scripts.

Mike Manning from BSCH told me yesterday that he hadn't adjusted the scripts in BSCH to account for that but said it's now fixed. He's now downloading the latest 18z data to BSCH (there was a problem with the 12z run's availability).

FYI for anyone who may still be unaware, both the latest EC and GFS upgrades (FV3) are now fully operational... or at least should be for those websites which have made the necessary changes to display the new data.

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#1500553 - 13/06/2019 08:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Ken Kato]
Un_stable Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/12/2004
Posts: 20
Loc: Narangba
That explains it. Thanks Ken, current output looks back to normal now.

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#1500569 - 13/06/2019 13:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1265
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
And yet Dalby is still nearly in the donut hole Bwhahahahahahahaha that is a hilarious graphic. Geez, could you imagine it, would certainly break the current 'boring' weather pattern we keep hearing about LOL! Great pics too Ken. Lovely.
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Jimbour rain: 2019 - 182mm Jan - .5 Feb - 1.5, Mar - 143, Apr - 0, May - 8, June - 29

2018 - 508.2
2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1500584 - 13/06/2019 18:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 200
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
What's the consensus on an ECL forming this weekend?
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#1500591 - 14/06/2019 06:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1387
Loc: Toowoomba
I'll make an attempt Multiversity. Just looking at the latest BOM info some sort of weak low or trough develops off the coast but nothing really exciting. Then the pattern just goes back to a weak dry setup, I think. Of course, Ken and others would be able to provide a far more detailed and accurate appraisal.

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#1500593 - 14/06/2019 07:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5125
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE...14 JUN 2019 TIME..0735

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...13.5C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........92%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......12C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..Calm
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1019.8Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY......20KM
CURRENT WEATHER......Smoke haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900 THURSDAY....0.2mm(dew).

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP........23.6C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP.....11.7
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN....11.6C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT.... 14C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1019.8Hpa
MAX WIND GUST LAST 24 HOURS..NW 26 Kph at 1304
LAST 24 HOURS WEATHER....Smoke haze.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11.4(150),Feb47.0(152),Mar285.6(136),Apr97.0(92),May37.4(89),Jun25.0(77)YTD503.4(696)

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#1500594 - 14/06/2019 08:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1339
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Just more of the same boring weather where it cant make up its mind. Almost identical forcast as last week so i expect about 4 drops
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1500601 - 14/06/2019 16:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3853
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Anyone seen that latest GFS?
I think it needs to be unplugged and put back into its box!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (14/06/2019 16:59)

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#1500603 - 14/06/2019 18:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6057







LOL Mad Elf, which aspect of GFS?

Still looking like the main peak in any showers/rain areas here will be Sunday night/overnight/very early Monday morning and possibly an earlier more localised spell later on Saturday as well.

Could also be some thunderstorm activity later on Saturday and/or Sunday in some parts of the region with the general destabilisation from the upper trough and quite cold air aloft but any potential for strong storms (due to the strong shear) would be highly conditional on whether any good clearer areas can be present during the day.

The general 700/500hpa synoptics actually don't look too bad but our issue yet again in terms of long-lasting widespread heavy rain is the limited windows of opportunity of a good moist onshore flow through a deep slab of the atmosphere with deep backing with height winds. Once the upper trough clears out and that broad area of complex low pressure forms over waters off the northern NSW coast and strengthens as it moves further out into the Tasman Sea with the W to SW winds behind it, it's all over red rover for us.

So while some areas may get some nice falls, it probably won't be an all-day event for most places and a lot of areas may only get very modest amounts.

1st image above - Multimodel accumulating rainfall plume for Brisbane.
2nd image above - The percentages of the EC ensemble's scenarios forecasting 1mm or more of rainfall between 10am Sun and 10am Mon.
3rd image above - The consistently above average max temps for Brisbane so far this week. Today's max's include an impressive 28.2C at both Amberley and Gatton, 27.8C at Beaudesert, 27.7C at Greenbank, 27.6C at Beerburrum, and 27.5C in Brisbane (which is even a bit higher than our October average max temp, and more than 5C above the June average, as well as being well inside the warmest 10% of past June max temps).
In fact for many places like Brisbane, every day this week has featured max temps a number of degrees above average, and even above the May average.

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#1500604 - 14/06/2019 19:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 200
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
KK. wrt "that broad area of complex low pressure forms over waters off the northern NSW coast and strengthens" -

what is the genesis of an ECL versus the scenario you mention?

Cheers
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Science is the only answer

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#1500605 - 14/06/2019 19:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3853
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Hi Ken
Its the 7 day GFS charts, MSL, Press/Thickness Rainfall sumary on Elders Weather.
I think you already explained the glitch in one of your posts. Cheers, have a great evening.

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#1500608 - 14/06/2019 22:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 174
Loc: Peachester
I thought you were talking about the Solomons cyclone.

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#1500610 - 14/06/2019 23:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Delta-T]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7852
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
I thought you were talking about the Solomons cyclone.


hahahahaha I noticed that too. Tropicaltidbits' GFS has upgraded to FV3 (new GFS) and right off the bat it has a TC over the Solomon Islands in June....lol. This was always my biggest gripe with it, its rubbish handling of the tropics, but hopefully it is better for us locally come storm season.

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#1500612 - 15/06/2019 07:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 475
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Hopefully the Warwick area will get some falls this weekend, seems like a good bet for today at least.
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#1500613 - 15/06/2019 07:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1237
Loc: Warwick, QLD
We actually had a brief heavy shower around 2300 last night Cirrus. 3.5mm in the gauge. They are going for 10-20mm tomorrow. That would be nice.
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1500614 - 15/06/2019 08:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5125
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE...15 JUN 2019 TIME..0800

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...16.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........95%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......15C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..Calm
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1019.4Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY......7000M
CURRENT WEATHER......Mist/Smoke haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900 FRIDAY....0.2mm(dew).

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP........24.8C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP.....14.2
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN....12.8C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT.... 15C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1017.8Hpa
MAX WIND GUST LAST 24 HOURS..NW 18Kph at 1117
LAST 24 HOURS WEATHER....Smoke haze, thickening to overnight mist with fog patches.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11.4(150),Feb47.0(152),Mar285.6(136),Apr97.0(92),May37.4(89),Jun25.0(77)YTD503.4(696)

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#1500624 - 15/06/2019 16:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1339
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Just looked at bom 4:20pm forcast. Just a cut and paste from the mornings one. Budget must be real tight
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