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#1500587 - 13/06/2019 20:54 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Jac0b]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Interesting graphs Jac0b. Thank you for putting together and posting.

---

I note in passing that June last year was cool and wet in Sydney, with OH average min-max temps of 9.7 - 17.8, in each case just 0.1 above the 1961-90 average. Only two days reached 20, the 'hottest' being 20.3.

If I get a chance tomorrow I'll put together some June stats for my choice of a site representative of Sydney, Bankstown.


Edited by Steve777 (13/06/2019 20:54)

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#1500589 - 13/06/2019 21:32 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
That would be great Steve.

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#1500590 - 14/06/2019 03:11 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Originally Posted By: Steve777

If I get a chance tomorrow I'll put together some June stats for my choice of a site representative of Sydney, Bankstown.


Yessss!!
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1500600 - 14/06/2019 15:18 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 178
Loc: Bowral
Weatherzone app forecast had the snow icon and a top of 9 for here next Friday. Its a very interesting setup that the BOM charts have for later next week with the overland low pressure system and upper cold pool (which is actually quite cold). these systems do very strange this with snow levels. At least its something to keep and eye on (albeit over a week away), and could also bring some decent rainfalls to parts of the state!

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#1500609 - 14/06/2019 23:00 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Errrr GFS is on the drugs again....one could only wish that scenario would come off...meanwhile ACCESS has massively downgraded the low...

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#1500617 - 15/06/2019 09:42 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Here are that stats for monthly temperature means for June at Bankstown Airport AWS, 1969-2018.



The red line is the monthly mean (average of min and max) by calendar year. The yellow line is the long term mean (12.3) and the blue line is a 7-year moving average.

The AWS is over 100 metres from buildings in a broad, flat area near a taxiway. The Airport is surrounded by low-rise residential and industrial development and has been since the 70s. Before then, the area to the West was semi-rural. It is about 25 km from the open sea (16.5 km from Botany Bay).

So a few observations:
- a warming trend since about 1994
- 1991 (14.6) was a standout warm year, nearly a degree warmer than the next warmest (2008)
- 1993 was the coldest (10.7)
- recent Junes have mostly been warm, although last June (12.6) was only a little above the long term mean.
- Recent cool (below average) Junes: 2012, 2011, 2007, 2006

Here's the June rainfall, from the BOM site: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weath...=139&p_month=06

For rain, June seems to have been a famine or a feast. The really wet years were 1991, 2007 (of course) and 2016, with about 5 times the average or more. Ranked behind these but still very wet were 1975, 1978, 1989 and 2012. Most recent Junes have been wetter than the long term average, but 2014 was below average.

One of the very wet Junes was the very warm one of 1991. The very wet June of 2007 was cooler than average.

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#1500618 - 15/06/2019 10:09 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Siiiiiick! If you ever get bored and want to do one for Mt Boyce AWS, that would be rad.

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#1500619 - 15/06/2019 10:30 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Kino]
jbeatty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/07/2008
Posts: 195
Loc: Burragate NSW
Originally Posted By: Kino
Errrr GFS is on the drugs again....one could only wish that scenario would come off...

I've started building an Ark - - - grin

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#1500623 - 15/06/2019 15:54 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Thanks Steve. Very interesting chart and analysis.

Looks like some chunky showers building and heading towards the Illawarra and Sydney coastline currently. Will be keen to see what they do when they hit land, and how far inland they can push through.
Otherwise, it's been a beautiful, cool and mostly sunny day here today. Perfect winter's day for watching a bit of kids sport.


Edited by Homer (15/06/2019 15:55)

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#1500625 - 15/06/2019 16:42 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Thank you Homer. Also Eigerwand (I think).

----

The "T" word appears in tomorrow's Sydney forecast, with 25-40 mm rainfall forecast over the next two days. That drops off quickly as you go inland, with 9-20 mm for Parramatta and 4-11 mm for Penrith.

----

At the midpoint of June, Sydney OH is tracking 10.4 to 19.3, +0.6 to +1.3 with respect to recent averages. This period Included a cool spell (4 sub-16 maxima) and a long warm spell (5 days 22+ maxima). Rainfall at 47 mm is 40% of the recent monthly average.

For Bankstown it's 7.4 - 19.2 (+0.6 to + 1.4 with respect to 50 year averages) and rainfall 25.4 mm (31%).

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#1500626 - 15/06/2019 16:44 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 375
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Looking bloody cold next week, with –7° / 5° C and –6° / 4° C forecast for Jindabyne (BOM), on Thursday and Friday...I wonder what our very own Berridale member would score.

Might do a "cold-chase" next week, to see how cold it plunges in the valleys straddling Yaouk and Shannons Flat; had –18.5° C (car temp) back in June 1994 in one of them gnarly frost-hollows, with –13.0° C here, though can't be too sure how accurate the car thermometer really is.
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1500627 - 15/06/2019 16:47 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Adaminaby Angler]
Jac0b Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/12/2018
Posts: 144
Awesome graph Steve, June 2008 surprises me as coming in 2nd! Must have been the minimums well above average that month.

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#1500628 - 15/06/2019 16:51 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Jac0b]
Jac0b Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/12/2018
Posts: 144
It looks like that stretch of warmth is giving way to a prolonged stretch of cold weather with sub 15's in Western Sydney (Parramatta) and sub 10's for canberra, combined with very cold nights too. Just in time for the solstice.

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#1500629 - 15/06/2019 17:07 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 739
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Cheers Steve for that graphic and breakdown.
Haha seems that GFS is the steady one this run, going for a strong high directly an easterly flow with some upper level support over NSW
EC is going for a hail mary with an upper-level cut-off low combining with a strong High. Along with a low in the coral sea. To create a hybrid monster East of Brisbane.

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#1500630 - 15/06/2019 17:30 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Southern Sydney coastline currently in the firing line for some heavy showers. I wonder if TH is over reading again?

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#1500632 - 15/06/2019 18:00 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Those showers moving into Sydney's East have some substance. Sydney Airport received 6.2 mm in under 10 minutes. Showers about to hit the CBD then likely move into the North Shore.


Edited by Steve777 (15/06/2019 18:01)

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#1500633 - 15/06/2019 18:10 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Adaminaby Angler]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler

Might do a "cold-chase" next week, to see how cold it plunges in the valleys straddling Yaouk and Shannons Flat; had –18.5° C (car temp) back in June 1994 in one of them gnarly frost-hollows, with –13.0° C here, though can't be too sure how accurate the car thermometer really is.


Cool, let us know how you go. I bet there would be some places that would get way coldest than the AWS's show. I think near the Mt Selwyn turnoff where the road goes along the Eucumbene River would be a very cold frost hollow!!

Car temps seem to be reasonably accurate I've found, in at least 3 car models anyway (09' Holden Astra, 07' Toyota Landcruiser, 08' Subaru Outback).


Edited by Wave Rider (15/06/2019 18:12)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1500634 - 15/06/2019 18:29 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I was skeptical of the showers forecast but it’s raining here! Hopefully that heavy stuff for tomorrow comes off!

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#1500639 - 15/06/2019 19:06 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler

Might do a "cold-chase" next week, to see how cold it plunges in the valleys straddling Yaouk and Shannons Flat; had –18.5° C (car temp) back in June 1994 in one of them gnarly frost-hollows, with –13.0° C here, though can't be too sure how accurate the car thermometer really is.


Cool, let us know how you go. I bet there would be some places that would get way coldest than the AWS's show. I think near the Mt Selwyn turnoff where the road goes along the Eucumbene River would be a very cold frost hollow!!

Car temps seem to be reasonably accurate I've found, in at least 3 car models anyway (09' Holden Astra, 07' Toyota Landcruiser, 08' Subaru Outback).


I agree re car temps. I've always found them reasonably accurate as well, double checked with official obs.

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#1500641 - 15/06/2019 20:09 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 375
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Righto, thanks for the the reassurance, fellas. FJ62 driver meself. smile

I forgot about that Long Plain-Kiandra region, perhaps it can get even colder than the likes of Shannons Flat or other valleys straddling Yaouk—the elevation advantage would certainly help, although these regions tend to be squallier than the Murrumbidgee valleys, so that might prove a potential problem.

Taking the Kestrel 5500 with me, too.
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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