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#1500782 - 17/06/2019 17:49 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1988
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
What is RAIN?
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1500784 - 17/06/2019 18:08 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 178
Loc: Bowral
Just saw some footage on the news of a waterspout off Bondi today! Anyone on here get a glimpse of it?

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#1500785 - 17/06/2019 18:21 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Eigerwand]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6407
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Anyone know if there's a site to access observations for Jindabyne?



Hi Eiger.

I used to have a link in my favorites to a site at Jindy Airport which was hosted on W Underground.
Unfortunately, it doesn't connect anymore, so I've deleted it. I've not been able to find any other live site for Jindy.

I'm quite surprised that the BOM have never set up an AWS in Jindabyne. Yep, its a small town, but geez, it's a massive tourist destination, and not only in winter.
Considering some of the other places in NSW they have AWS's I would have thought that Jindy would be a no brainer.
Anyway, we know what the BOM are up against for funding from the Fed's.

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#1500786 - 17/06/2019 18:23 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
That is a shame about Jindabyne AA. It would be an interesting one. The reason I asked is think the BOM tend to underestimate the forecast maximum's there quite a bit. I mean, the current forecast has a few days with maximum's only reaching 3 or 4C. Given the place is about 930m high, outside of basically a proper snow day I highly doubt the maximum's would remain this low. Having spent a lot of time in the CT's I know the conditions needed to produce a 3 or 4C maximum at say 1000m ASL, The forecast for Jindy has days with minimums of -5C and maximums of 3 and 4C for Friday and Saturday... Either it will be cloudy/wet/snowy enough to record such a low max at 930m AS,L thus preventing the temps to drop much below freezing overnight, or it will be clear enough to record a pretty chilly -5C overnight and at least warm to about 6-8C during the day.

I notice that the BoM also has many centres on the CT's; Orange, Bathurst and Lithgow all dropping to -4C on Thursday morning whilst Katoomba's forecast is a relatively mild 3C... Unfortunately we don't seem to have observations at Katoomba any more and I know Mt Boyce is generally 1C or so cooler, but I will be extremely surprised if Mt Boyce doesn't at least get down to 0C if everywhere else is going to be quite cold.

I guess many probably don't care but it's just something that seems to have really stuck out a bit for mind this year.

Quite an impressive amount of cold air in the Bight visible in the current satellite pick. Could be interesting if there's a bit of moisture in it.

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#1500787 - 17/06/2019 18:43 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 701
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
SES did a flood rescue in Manly today. Yet out west there was hardly anything to write about.

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#1500790 - 17/06/2019 19:05 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Manly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/03/2002
Posts: 147
Loc: Manly, on the Northern Beaches...
Where in Manly was the rescue?

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#1500791 - 17/06/2019 19:21 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Eigerwand]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1392
Loc: toowoomba
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
That is a shame about Jindabyne AA. It would be an interesting one. The reason I asked is think the BOM tend to underestimate the forecast maximum's there quite a bit. I mean, the current forecast has a few days with maximum's only reaching 3 or 4C. Given the place is about 930m high, outside of basically a proper snow day I highly doubt the maximum's would remain this low. Having spent a lot of time in the CT's I know the conditions needed to produce a 3 or 4C maximum at say 1000m ASL, The forecast for Jindy has days with minimums of -5C and maximums of 3 and 4C for Friday and Saturday... Either it will be cloudy/wet/snowy enough to record such a low max at 930m AS,L thus preventing the temps to drop much below freezing overnight, or it will be clear enough to record a pretty chilly -5C overnight and at least warm to about 6-8C during the day.

I notice that the BoM also has many centres on the CT's; Orange, Bathurst and Lithgow all dropping to -4C on Thursday morning whilst Katoomba's forecast is a relatively mild 3C... Unfortunately we don't seem to have observations at Katoomba any more and I know Mt Boyce is generally 1C or so cooler, but I will be extremely surprised if Mt Boyce doesn't at least get down to 0C if everywhere else is going to be quite cold.

I guess many probably don't care but it's just something that seems to have really stuck out a bit for mind this year.

Quite an impressive amount of cold air in the Bight visible in the current satellite pick. Could be interesting if there's a bit of moisture in it.
Trouble with Katoomba is there is always a bit of wind at night preventing the temp from dropping to near zero most of the time.Also prone to any moisture coming in from the coast raising the humidity.

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#1500793 - 17/06/2019 19:57 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Hi Pete, yes I know that that is the case from living there most of my life. However, given the forecast for the CT's predicts it to be partly cloudy over the nights at which it's supposed to be cold, I seriously doubt you would see a 7C difference in minimum's between the top of the Blue Mountains and Lithgow when combined with the fact that light winds are also forecast over the period and will most likely be from the SW in both locations. Of course there are times when there is a large differential between the Mountains and the locations further west is, but to me it just seems unlikely
that this would be the case for so many of the coming days given the nature of the approaching weather.

Can only wait and see I guess.

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#1500794 - 17/06/2019 20:08 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Isn’t that why the BoM moved the site due to urban impacts?

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#1500796 - 17/06/2019 20:49 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Eigerwand]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 375
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
That is a shame about Jindabyne AA. It would be an interesting one. The reason I asked is think the BOM tend to underestimate the forecast maximum's there quite a bit. I mean, the current forecast has a few days with maximum's only reaching 3 or 4C. Given the place is about 930m high, outside of basically a proper snow day I highly doubt the maximum's would remain this low. Having spent a lot of time in the CT's I know the conditions needed to produce a 3 or 4C maximum at say 1000m ASL, The forecast for Jindy has days with minimums of -5C and maximums of 3 and 4C for Friday and Saturday... Either it will be cloudy/wet/snowy enough to record such a low max at 930m AS,L thus preventing the temps to drop much below freezing overnight, or it will be clear enough to record a pretty chilly -5C overnight and at least warm to about 6-8C during the day.

I notice that the BoM also has many centres on the CT's; Orange, Bathurst and Lithgow all dropping to -4C on Thursday morning whilst Katoomba's forecast is a relatively mild 3C... Unfortunately we don't seem to have observations at Katoomba any more and I know Mt Boyce is generally 1C or so cooler, but I will be extremely surprised if Mt Boyce doesn't at least get down to 0C if everywhere else is going to be quite cold.

I guess many probably don't care but it's just something that seems to have really stuck out a bit for mind this year.

Quite an impressive amount of cold air in the Bight visible in the current satellite pick. Could be interesting if there's a bit of moisture in it.

You're very much correct on this issue regarding the accuracy of BOM's forecasts, and have good reason to be concerned; they overestimate the forecast for Adaminaby, showing its coldest maximum at 7° C, whilst my coldest maximum (Braemar Bay) at 3° C; hard to believe that Jindabyne is colder than Adaminaby, Jindabyne being only 1° C warmer than me, and Adaminaby being only 1° C colder than Cooma (when Adaminaby is usually at least 2° C colder, oftentimes 3°-4° C colder than Cooma during winter). Very inconsistent there!

However, you shouldn't compare maxima at 900-1,000 m AMSL here in the Snowies to those in the CT's; Jindabyne, being much farther west than Cooma, receives much cooler maxima than the latter during the cooler months—I can base that on experience travelling between the two at noon-afternoon, so comparisons between Cooma AP and Orange AP (i.e. Snowys vs. CT's), are simply not accurate. It also gets notably more winter precipitation than Cooma. Jindabyne, as well as my region, are chiefly windward—even if much of the precipitation isn't received, the cold is certainly evident in the maxima (unlike Cooma, which is shielded and properly leeward). Due to our southerly latitude, a maximum temperature reading at 900 m AMSL around here, would equate to a reading at about 1,100 m AMSL in the CT's; for example, Jindabyne's average July maxima (if it had official records), would be akin to those of Oberon (8°-9° C).

Regarding Katoomba's mild minima, it suffers the same fate as Cabramurra—at least, Mt. Boyce AWS does. Of course, Cabramurra gets far colder due to much higher latitude, and tremendously higher altitude. Vast, relatively flat tablelands and frost-hollows/valleys can be very easily expected to prove far colder than locations astride suspended ridges, such as the former two in this paragraph; the coldest air will only sink downwards on clear, calm nights and mornings.
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1500797 - 17/06/2019 21:20 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Adaminaby Angler]
Snowmaker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/07/2013
Posts: 178
Loc: Bowral
Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
That is a shame about Jindabyne AA. It would be an interesting one. The reason I asked is think the BOM tend to underestimate the forecast maximum's there quite a bit. I mean, the current forecast has a few days with maximum's only reaching 3 or 4C. Given the place is about 930m high, outside of basically a proper snow day I highly doubt the maximum's would remain this low. Having spent a lot of time in the CT's I know the conditions needed to produce a 3 or 4C maximum at say 1000m ASL, The forecast for Jindy has days with minimums of -5C and maximums of 3 and 4C for Friday and Saturday... Either it will be cloudy/wet/snowy enough to record such a low max at 930m AS,L thus preventing the temps to drop much below freezing overnight, or it will be clear enough to record a pretty chilly -5C overnight and at least warm to about 6-8C during the day.

I notice that the BoM also has many centres on the CT's; Orange, Bathurst and Lithgow all dropping to -4C on Thursday morning whilst Katoomba's forecast is a relatively mild 3C... Unfortunately we don't seem to have observations at Katoomba any more and I know Mt Boyce is generally 1C or so cooler, but I will be extremely surprised if Mt Boyce doesn't at least get down to 0C if everywhere else is going to be quite cold.

I guess many probably don't care but it's just something that seems to have really stuck out a bit for mind this year.

Quite an impressive amount of cold air in the Bight visible in the current satellite pick. Could be interesting if there's a bit of moisture in it.

You're very much correct on this issue regarding the accuracy of BOM's forecasts, and have good reason to be concerned; they overestimate the forecast for Adaminaby, showing its coldest maximum at 7° C, whilst my coldest maximum (Braemar Bay) at 3° C; hard to believe that Jindabyne is colder than Adaminaby, Jindabyne being only 1° C warmer than me, and Adaminaby being only 1° C colder than Cooma (when Adaminaby is usually at least 2° C colder, oftentimes 3°-4° C colder than Cooma during winter). Very inconsistent there!

However, you shouldn't compare maxima at 900-1,000 m AMSL here in the Snowies to those in the CT's; Jindabyne, being much farther west than Cooma, receives much cooler maxima than the latter during the cooler months—I can base that on experience travelling between the two at noon-afternoon, so comparisons between Cooma AP and Orange AP (i.e. Snowys vs. CT's), are simply not accurate. It also gets notably more winter precipitation than Cooma. Jindabyne, as well as my region, are chiefly windward—even if much of the precipitation isn't received, the cold is certainly evident in the maxima (unlike Cooma, which is shielded and properly leeward). Due to our southerly latitude, a maximum temperature reading at 900 m AMSL around here, would equate to a reading at about 1,100 m AMSL in the CT's; for example, Jindabyne's average July maxima (if it had official records), would be akin to those of Oberon (8°-9° C).

Regarding Katoomba's mild minima, it suffers the same fate as Cabramurra—at least, Mt. Boyce AWS does. Of course, Cabramurra gets far colder due to much higher latitude, and tremendously higher altitude. Vast, relatively flat tablelands and frost-hollows/valleys can be very easily expected to prove far colder than locations astride suspended ridges, such as the former two in this paragraph; the coldest air will only sink downwards on clear, calm nights and mornings.


Where do you get your BOM forecasts for those locations AA? I'm assuming that they are from Meteye? I try not to take much notice of it because of its low resolution and it is very highly automated. However I very much agree with you about the Jindabyne vs Cooma forecast temps. They always underestimate the minimums for here in Bowral as well. VERY rarely do the BOM forecast minimums of -1 or lower, when last year there were the following frequencies of overnight minimum temperatures recorded at the Moss Vale AWS (rounded to the nearest whole number):

-1... 4 nights
-2... 5 nights
-3... 4 nights
-4... 7 nights
-5... 2 nights

So unlike in Jindabyne where there is no AWS to refer to for manual adjustments to temperatures, here in the Southern Highlands they have an AWS with 17 years of records to refer to, with no greater accuracy adjustments for these minimums. So even if there was an AWS in Jindy, the chances are there probably would still be no change to the automated inaccuracies produced by the BOM!

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#1500798 - 17/06/2019 21:30 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Thanks for your input AA. Yes i would agree that Jindabyne would probably be similar to Oberon in terms of maximums. With that in mind, to record a 3C max at Oberon would still be a significantly cold day and as such I'd say it would be at Jindabyne also. My point was that if it is the case that the conditions needed to allow such string of significantly cold maxima come off as per the current forecast, then it's unlikely you'd also see a string of minima as low as -4 to -5C to boot. Or vice versa.


Edited by Eigerwand (17/06/2019 21:36)

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#1500799 - 17/06/2019 21:37 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Snowmaker]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 375
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Originally Posted By: Snowmaker
Where do you get your BOM forecasts for those locations AA? I'm assuming that they are from Meteye? I try not to take much notice of it because of its low resolution and it is very highly automated. However I very much agree with you about the Jindabyne vs Cooma forecast temps. They always underestimate the minimums for here in Bowral as well. VERY rarely do the BOM forecast minimums of -1 or lower, when last year there were the following frequencies of overnight minimum temperatures recorded at the Moss Vale AWS (rounded to the nearest whole number):

-1... 4 nights
-2... 5 nights
-3... 4 nights
-4... 7 nights
-5... 2 nights

So unlike in Jindabyne where there is no AWS to refer to for manual adjustments to temperatures, here in the Southern Highlands they have an AWS with 17 years of records to refer to, with no greater accuracy adjustments for these minimums. So even if there was an AWS in Jindy, the chances are there probably would still be no change to the automated inaccuracies produced by the BOM!

Here is whence I source my forecasts; Braemar Bay, on the upper slopes of Lake Eucumbene, forecast at approximately 1,300 m AMSL—I find it to be quite accurate in maxima, but often tends to overestimate the minima, as I get much colder than Cabramurra on calm, clear nights/mornings:

http://www.bom.gov.au/places/nsw/braemar-bay/

You can search for any location of your choice on the top search-bar, too.
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1500805 - 17/06/2019 23:51 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ben K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2012
Posts: 164
Loc: Central Coast, NSW


Looking pretty wet for the coastal areas over the next week.

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#1500807 - 18/06/2019 00:48 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3983
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
I'm currently away so not in a position to comment on all of the site issues mentioned on this thread recently.

I would assume that the Bowral forecasts are calibrated against the former Bowral site (closed 2014), not the Moss Vale AWS. Moss Vale's minima are significantly colder on cold winter nights (during the period from 2001 to 2014 when both sites were in operation, the coldest night of the year was typically 2-3 degrees colder at Moss Vale). Without being familiar with the details of either site I suspect this has more to do with the local siting of the two sites than big inherent differences between the two towns.

Fun fact: during the period that it was in operation, day-to-day minimum temperature variations in winter at Kiandra correlated better with those at Alice Springs than they did with those at Cabramurra. The mountaintop sites are essentially sampling the free atmosphere so behave quite differently for minimum temperature than valley sites. (When I was looking for the best-correlated sites for day-to-day variations with Cabramurra, the ones which were coming up were other mountaintop sites - even in Victoria and Tasmania - as well as ultra-exposed coastal sites like Wilsons Promontory).

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#1500812 - 18/06/2019 09:02 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Manly]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 701
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Sorry Manly I don't know where the flood rescue was yesterday. I'll see if I can find out.


Edited by Rainbow Spirit (18/06/2019 09:11)

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#1500813 - 18/06/2019 09:20 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 701
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Flood rescue was at Balgowlah Rd, Manly, driver trapped in car in flood water.

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#1500817 - 18/06/2019 12:26 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Ben K]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3346
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
What sort of resolution is in that (or smoothing of the shading). The paranoid me sees the mysterious island 20kms offshore Wollongong getting a bucketing, but much of the coast getting just a few MM, except for usual suspects like Point Perpendicular, Sydney's far east suburbs and Port Stephens.


Originally Posted By: Ben K


Looking pretty wet for the coastal areas over the next week.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1500819 - 18/06/2019 14:56 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Quagmelson Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 1009
Loc: Glenorie NSW
Theres a line of ok convective showers out west. No real height to them but quite chunk developing over bilpin, rain blocking the mountains out. Opposite to the forecast really

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#1500820 - 18/06/2019 15:19 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The following map could be considered a wrap-up of total rainfall for the event just finished, from the BOM site.



It covers rain for the week ended 9:00 this morning. Some of the falls West of the divide come from inland rains on June 11 and 13 which didn't affect the coast. This latest event from June 14 to 18 was basically coastal, with an inland extension to Goulburn and into the Central Tablelands South of Orange on the 17th.

A few totals (mm):
Sydney OH ___ 60.0
Chatswood ___ 35.0
Penrith _____ 6.8
Newcastle ___ 14.0
Cessnock ____ 0.6
Bellambi ____ 29.3
Goulburn ____ 9.6

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