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#15123 - 15/09/2004 14:26 South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14785
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Im not going to put a date on this thread as thats pointless really.

Ok basically all I'll do is do a brief analysis of the current day's weather and my prediction for the next day. I may occasionally give a longer trend if it is looking interesting, but by then most important posts will be kept in a major breaking weather thread.

Ok here goes!!! (call me mad, call me nuts, but I do like the weather this much lol and am very happy to do it between lectures at uni if I have time!)

Wednesday 15/9/04

This morning saw a weak front brush the southern coastal regions injecting some surface moisture northward and causing a few very light brief morning showers down south. Right behind this is a high pressure system with associated ridge and this has steadily moved eastward today clearing out any early shower activity and causing the day to be generally fine. There is some high level cirrus cloud present due to a small amount of moisture aloft at approximately 25,000ft. Further cloud is streaming towards SA on the satpic but is not having any effect on our weather.

thursday 16/9/04

Basically the ridge of high pressure will continue to develop further and move slowly eastward. We will still be on the influence of maratime air, hence the morning should be fairly cloudy as the temperature and dewpoints come closer together overnight. Chance of an early shower or drizzle patch about the southern ranges but should be mostly fine here.

My forecast - 17C
BoM forecast 17C

(will not always agree with the BoM, especially as temps warm up).

Feedback would be good! Not exactly sure how to structure this thread for day to day forecasting and analysis! If im going into too much depth let me know!

TS cool

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#15124 - 15/09/2004 17:22 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
Looks good to me TS. I am keeping my eye on that weak trough over Western Australia - given that the atmosphere has been unexpectedly unstable at times this month, it might only take a weak trough to start some convective showers. I also note that the central pressures in this high have dropped significantly in the past two days - I hope it stands its ground against any fronts going past to the south frown . Looks like some sunshine over the weekend in the Adelaide area which the birds and I are definitely looking forward to.

TS - good luck with the thread and happy forecasting! :cheers:

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#15125 - 15/09/2004 17:35 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Cloudmaster_dup1 Offline
Weather Nerd

Registered: 15/10/2001
Posts: 5100
Loc: Eastern Suburbs of Sydney, NSW...
Good to see you joining our Sydney Forecasting Thread business Lennie! :p ... It's great fun, but let me tell you, it's very easy to forget about at times. shocked

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#15126 - 15/09/2004 21:18 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14785
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
LOl, yeah I dont forget lol, if I havent done it its, cos im too busy or am out etc, but yeah its good fun...ive actually been keeping track of weather and forecasting myself against the BoM for about 10 years lol...hehe another story of my rather sad life at times!!

Tornadosky, it would be most unlikely to see any sort of convective shower activity be set off by that weak trough. Its too weak really and moisture will be poor. Strong surface high pressure will dominate really, effectively setting up a blocking pattern right over SA. Any fronts that try to move up from the sw will be quickly deflected to the SE well below SA. Northerly winds will dominate and hence temps should rise to the high 20's by mid next week. Good to see that tho!! Sick of this cold rubbish!

TS cool

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#15127 - 15/09/2004 23:31 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
---- Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/11/2002
Posts: 5786
Actually the weather is looking quite good for the next few days I reckon.
So lets get local - For the hills I would take 4 degrees off on daytime max's to be ~13 degrees over the next few days rising to be 17-18 by the late weekend if we are lucky. The valleys can expect cool to cold nights with the slight possibility of light frosts in the deeper valleys on the clear nights, while those on hilltops should have min temps around or just below 5 degrees. I agree with TS about the chance of drizzle thurs morning and maybe even friday morning for those on the southern coasts and ranges.
I can't match TS for detail, but lets give this a go and see just how wrong I will be.. LOL

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#15128 - 16/09/2004 07:11 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
630 am Thursday - so far so good cool . Webcams show low cloud cover over St Vincentís Gulf and Adelaide (keeping min temp up smile ), base seems to be a bit lower than Mt Lofty summit so some fog on range crest, but Adelaide radar shows no precip, (Ceduna radar showing many weak echoes - donít know what that is). Mount Lofty wind WSW at 11 k at 530 am so we are still in a westerly at low levels. BOM chart shows high centre is now south of Ceduna (previously over central SA) - thatís probably a good sign for sunshine lovers for the weekend smile .

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#15129 - 16/09/2004 10:02 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14785
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yer Id expect this cloud to burn off as the day wears on with heating. Give it a few hours, although I wouldnt say it woulf totally become sunny but more than we have now, its full of 8/8 Sc @ about 3200ft.

Tornadosky, there prolly isnt any drizzle about tho u cant rule out places like Parawa, they are drizzle and fog magents lol but generally drizzle doesn't get picked up on radar, especially if its a fair way away from the radar itself. Parawa isnt but generally low clouds such as Stratus and Stratocumulus, the dreary drizzle givers, have tops low enough to not be scanned by the radar beam smile (not always the case tho)

Ceduna radar is full of inerference I think, certainly doesn't look like genuine rain echoes to me.

TS cool

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#15130 - 16/09/2004 12:08 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14785
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Hmmm looking possible that we may see a front bring a slightly premature end to our burst or warm weather. Monday IMO will certainly be the warmest day, possibly more than 26C, the effect of the front strengthening the northerlies ahead of it may bring down a lot more warm air so 28C+ could be poss before dropping to below 20C after.....just how im seeing models atm, could well change but is probably the most realistic option.

TS cool

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#15131 - 16/09/2004 18:46 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
Just went outside - if you happen to receive this almost as I post it (Adelaide 618 pm Wednesday), take a look at the sunset - thereís a visitor in the sky - a lane of high cloud. Making quite a pretty sunset. smile

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#15132 - 16/09/2004 18:50 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
And check it out on the Outer Harbour webcam - it stretches right back to the south-western horizon, would be easily over a hundred k distant on the horizon, perhaps over 150 if the cloud is near 30,000 feet high.
http://www.marine.transport.sa.gov.au/data/outer/index.htm

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#15133 - 16/09/2004 18:57 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
630 pm Payneham Adelaide - the morning low cloud duly burnt off during the day as predicted by TS, leaving a mostly cloudless afternoon - lovely sun for a change, no sign of middle or high cloud. After lunch I watched the scattered low clouds - aimless drift typical of high centres, unlike yesterday there was no significant convective buildup, I suspect there was a ceiling to convection not much higher than the base of the clouds, so no sooner had convection started a tower than it was forced to flow sideways like a convective cell would if it rose in our living rooms and hit the ceiling. At least thatís what I imagine happens up there. BOM now has high centre east of Adelaide.Glad to see the end of the endless westerlies for a few days. Probably clear and calm over much of southern SA tonight so may be pretty cool mins.

So, is there any sign that things are not going according to plan? I canít see any such signs in the sky. Iím still keeping my eye on that trough over WA - it does have some cloud associated with it ďexpected to produce some isolated thundery showers over the Great Southern and western parts of the Southern Coastal districtsĒ before weakening frown (WA BOM - spoilsports :nerd: ) - doesnít sound very promising for us but we shall see in due course. Meanwhile, plenty of sun for most of us in SA. - hope most of you want some sun smile .

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#15134 - 16/09/2004 20:33 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14785
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Hi all,

Thursday 16/9/04

Today was generally a fine and cool to mild day across the metro area. The early Stratcumulus cloud did burn off as the temperature climbed to reach a maximum of 17.7C at about 1pm.

Friday 17/9/04

The high should continue its slow movement east, with winds being generally light and variable. The early morning should be quite chilly and calm with a fairly clear skies apart from the chance of some low cloud patches down south and possible high cloud patches over us. Generally a nice clear morning. With winds being light temps should rise quickly and we should reach about 19C I reckon. Chance of a light afternoon seabreeze within 10km of the coast.

My forecast: Fine and cool to mild and sunny - 19C

BoM forecast: 18C

TS cool

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#15135 - 16/09/2004 22:26 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
---- Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/11/2002
Posts: 5786
hhhmmm Was close with the temps at least. Made 13.6 today and 4.9 overnight. Is 5.6 ATM and dead calm. Tomorrow should see 15 degrees up my way with the sound of growing grass deafening. laugh

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#15136 - 17/09/2004 07:53 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
At 630 am it was 6.2 degrees and calm at Kent Town and 8.5 degrees with a 26 k northerly on the Mount Lofty summit. A good demonstration of the strange variations we can get in the local weather. So I would predict a light to moderate northerly for the Adelaide region today with a weak sea breeze this arvo. Webcams and trueview show sky clear except for bits of decorative cirrus.

Ceduna 630 am it was an easterly wind at 11 k, and Mount Gambier it was a north-westerly wind at 11 k.

Latest chart on BOM website shows WA trough has not lost its identity smile , and latest IR satellite image shows what I interpret to be a mass of cirrus on its eastern side extending well into SA and some broken middle level cloud in its centre. Should be a cirrus veil over much of SA today - donít know whether it will come down as far as Adelaide. Come on Western Australian trough - itís up to you! The opportunity is there if you want to take it wink .

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#15137 - 17/09/2004 15:49 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14785
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Hi all,

Friday 17/9/04

Today was generally a pretty good day, tho a fair lump of high level cloud has moved over us atm associated with a weak upper trough over WA blowing off some upper level moisture our way. Insignificant stuff. Temp reached 18.5C so BoM and myself were neutral split lol.

Saturday 18/9/04

Generally we should have some high cloud around at first but then that should clear out eventually to a reasonable day. I havent had much time to check the models and stuff but temps should only be a tad warmer than today. The large high pressure system will slowly move to our east gradually drawing down the warmer continental air that is lying over thye interior.

My forecast - Cloudy early, becoming sunny in the afternoon: Max 20C

BoM: 19C (EDIT BoM now say 20C too wink )

TS cool

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#15138 - 17/09/2004 15:57 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6735
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Ok, for our area it doesn't look like it's going to change much for the next week or two; apart from an increasing temperature. I'd expect that we'd be getting tops in the mid twenties by this time next week, or near enough. It doesn't look like this As, Cs and Sc/Cu hybrid stuff is going to be dissipating any day soon. We've already had three days in a row without a drop of rain; even though the overcast conditions have been threatening. It feels as though the wintery conditions have well and trully finished now, and I don't think we'll be getting any more cold-air frontal systems this year. I'd say the troughs are the things to look forward to into November through early next year. So far this month we have had about 46 mm, which doesn't seem like much unless you consider that this feels like the weather patterns are going through a transitional period from Winter/Spring Hybrid to Summer. Certainly to now I have not really been able to distinguish where the beginning of proper spring weather has been. Spring doesn't feel it was ever here, only a hybrid of it. This feels like it has been a very hybrid year so far, with the seasonal conditions being irregular and out of sync and topsy-turvy and seemingly like never seen before (in some cases).
:cheers:
_________________________
Only the most naive gamblers bet against physics, and only the most irresponsible bet with their grandchildrenís resources.

-- William H. Calvin.

[A quote about abrupt weather pattern changes occurring within decades.]

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#15139 - 17/09/2004 18:19 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
530 pm Friday Adelaide. The high now has one centre a bit south-west of Kangaroo Island and another in western central NSW. Itís centres have been drifting around like ghosts and I reckon you would have a real headache by now frown if your job was to predict in detail the local wind directions in the south-eastern quarter of South Australia today.

The Ceduna radar shows some strong echoes even a couple of tiny purple pixels smile - real or imagined I know not which - offshore. Either there are showers there or the dials need some tweaking - I donít understand why they donít just turn the thing down a bit if thereís a problem confused . My guess is there are some showers there but not as dramatic as it looks on the radar. The Western Australian trough is still maintaining its identity smile and I reckon we should keep an eye on our West Coast and Far West areas and eastern Western Australia - thereís a very big stretch of atmosphere without any strong gradients on the western side of this high - you never know what could develop in such an area in early Spring. I think there's a reasonable chance things won't be as simple as TS and Nasdeck are forecasting wink .

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#15140 - 17/09/2004 18:42 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
610 pm approx - if you get this post soon after I post it, and you gotta coupla mins to spare, try the current Ceduna 4 frame radar loop and see what you think. Also if you have access to an internet lightning map - is there any lightning in that area? I'm considerably puzzled as to what those echoes are - they don't seem to be going anywhere, rather they seem to be moving in some sort of wave pattern. Wierd confused .

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#15141 - 17/09/2004 19:20 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17410
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
6.46pm..... wink all pretty much false echoes or virga ok.... laugh
Absolutley no chance of getting anything out of that trough or anything until Wednesday ok so dont get your hopes up. wink

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#15142 - 18/09/2004 08:57 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
630 am Payneham Adelaide. Trueview - broken patchy thin high cloud over Adelaide. No low cloud visible in webcams looking south over Adelaide and SW over the Gulf. High centre now SW of Kangaroo Island so I will predict light variable winds for Adelaide area today. Ceduna radar still showing echoes in various directions (mostly gone by 8am). It has now become inescapably obvious that the Ceduna radar is giving very anomalous readings and what it says about precipitation is not to be believed. WA trough still intact but most of the cloud associated with it has dissipated or moved east - will need to wait for afternoon satellite photo to see where convective cloud forms.

Teckert thanks for checking the Ceduna radar last night. We really need someone doing visual observations from Ceduna to tell us whether thereís any cloud or other phenomena associated with the anomalous echoes. Nazdeck I will comment on your observations about the transition to spring in a future post - right now I gotta go get my weetbix smile or I'll be frown for the rest of the day.

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