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#1476181 - 20/11/2018 01:09 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: betsuin]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2231
Loc: Clare, SA
Originally Posted By: betsuin
Got absolutely slammed here - my big pine tree was really whipping around - a few minutes before 7pm, lasted about 5 minutes. Had the doors open to get some air in - they all slammed shut.


Looks like that squall originated from a storm west of Y.P. dying which sent out a big ofb and surged across y.p. to Adelaide. Caught BoM off guard with a quick warning once that 113km gust came in, was a very interesting and quite localised area of winds. Very high bases around 4km with dry air underneath, classic evaporative cooling driven gust. I wonder how strong the initial gust was over water as it maintained itself damn well over distance.

Wednesday still looking pretty awesome. Focus of upper cold pool in a great spot (and still progged around -29 @ 500mb on approach, very impressive for late November) for central regions and a very solid low just off to the south. Wednesday evening/night is going to be wild. Isolated storms, small hail, local heavy falls and frequent showers with strong to maybe gale force winds depending on low positioning. EC chucked out a rather insane prog with 65kt (120km) gusts on the west coast of Y.P. and GFS seems pretty keen for an angry LLJ too. Winter like impacts and with this low pressure system, high tides (2.45m at outer harbour so rather high before any potential storm surge impact) peaking just after 4am as well, may see some coastal erosion.
Will make a thread tomorrow.
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#1476183 - 20/11/2018 01:36 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Ricky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/09/2003
Posts: 1580
Loc: West Richmond
Our verandah roof didn't fare too well from that gust.


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#1476195 - 20/11/2018 10:30 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Bergasms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 366
Loc: South Plympton, Adelaide, Aus
Steady, heavy rain in the CBD, lovely sound.
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#1476197 - 20/11/2018 10:52 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Bergasms]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 529
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
Originally Posted By: Bergasms
Steady, heavy rain in the CBD, lovely sound.


Steady heavy rain at Kilburn, ditto smile

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#1476213 - 20/11/2018 12:56 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
puddles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 195
Loc: Reynella, SA
Light rain on and off this morning at Reynella and now moved east. frown

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#1476224 - 20/11/2018 15:17 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 751
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
4mm in my gauge out of that.

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#1476283 - 20/11/2018 23:29 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1701
Loc: Uleybury
Picked up 9mm from the band, and another 3mm from some showers.
12mm so far, happy with that for a head start

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#1476319 - 21/11/2018 10:59 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 529
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
Had 1.0mm until yesterday morning plus another 5.9mm until this morning, so fairly happy with that smile

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#1476368 - 21/11/2018 18:13 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3930
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
from reset this morning
lennie (at seaford) had 10mm up to 1.30,
i got 11.9mm up to 5.00
noarlunga AWS has 2.2mm up to 5.00.
not hard to work out who has the crappy
stuffed inaccurate rain guage.
always wondered why that piece of garbage
recorded lower than me.
and to think the BOM rely on this rubbish
for official records and stats.
as far as this AWS is concerned there was
a non event down here as far as rain goes.

TH
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#1476377 - 21/11/2018 18:59 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1671
Loc: Bridgewater
18mm of rain.
very nice.

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#1476426 - 22/11/2018 00:07 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3930
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
could pretty much pencil this one in as a sub-tropical cyclone.
been a long time since anything reasonably decent has come
close to giving sustained land gale.
the stinger seems to be evaporating as it hits KI.
current score noarlunga aws 6.4mm, me 14.4mm,
a gain of 4.2 vs 2.5 over previous, understandable considering
the nature of the shotgun showers coming through.
previous was a general rainband and shouldn't have been such a
huge discrepancy.

TH
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#1476652 - 23/11/2018 12:33 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
JohnC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 167
Loc: Adelaide, South Australia

Any thoughts on this?



Quote:
Another storm system with the potential to be as bad as Wednesday night is predicted to hit next week, after gale-force winds left tens of thousands of homes without power, ripped off roofs, felled Stobie poles and left apple growers devastated.

The weather bureau warned that while the storm had passed, three similar low- pressure systems will form off the coast in the middle of next week. An intense low-pressure system south of Kangaroo Island caused gale-force winds and potentially catastrophic tidal events on Wednesday evening.


https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/sout...c08e02ff35f2090
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#1476659 - 23/11/2018 15:02 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2231
Loc: Clare, SA
It's possible but unlikely given only ACCESS today has that particular low they're referring to sitting south of Adelaide. Previous runs of EC had a repeat but that model has backed off. There's a few different lows progged over the next 10 days and given their unpredictability very much worth keeping an eye on..but I highly doubt we will see anything quite like this event in Adelaide.

It's quite far fetched to call these systems similar as well, they don't have the high intensity upper cold we had from the system just gone and 2 of 3 are coming off the land, not from Antarctica or the ocean. The one Wednesday could be quite a decent system though with further cold air but have to wait and see where the low ends up.
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#1476686 - 23/11/2018 20:12 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1701
Loc: Uleybury
I heard on Triple M this morning that "next Wednesday's low will be very like the September 28th low".... ugh bloody scare tactics by the media.

Models are definately all over the joint, EC had the low centre over Noarlunga at 995hpa, then changed to near Victor Harbor. See how we go.

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#1476743 - 24/11/2018 14:05 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7642
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Note of Benefit: There was an apparent shift in the broader-scale weather dynamics with the last rains/showers...which would mean there is a greater probability of rain and/or showers from following systems/dynamics for some time (days/a week) ahead...more than for before the system just gone smile .....this is apparent from recent observations, rather than ACCESS, GFS, etc.

E.g. Note of Benefit: the current 128 km radar, now smile !


Edited by Seira (24/11/2018 14:10)

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#1476805 - 25/11/2018 11:18 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1671
Loc: Bridgewater
tuesday model for rain. all agreeing with each other

9-28 24 27

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#1476883 - 25/11/2018 21:13 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17597
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
I'll go less than 5mm for tuesday for the city.... looks all west, north, and NE to me...

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#1476884 - 25/11/2018 21:14 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 751
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Another 2mm from that bit last night.

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#1476904 - 26/11/2018 06:16 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 586
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Talking 20 -60mm here...lol

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#1476948 - 26/11/2018 12:38 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1671
Loc: Bridgewater
now only 1 model is predicting heavy rain

20-55 5 3

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