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#15143 - 18/09/2004 13:49 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14800
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yer, lots of radars can show false echoes, dark blue and light blue are the most common ones, however it is not uncommon to see a pink pixel. These never concern me as its plain obvious that they are ridciculous and basically there will always be false echoes of that nature for a long time to come. If its not moving and its one pixel only, its false.

Not a bad day today, been doin gardening, some Cu and Fc about 3200ft, bit of Cirrus around 27000ft.

TS cool

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#15144 - 18/09/2004 14:30 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6782
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
It's very sunny atm, with a bit of scattered Fc and Fs along with St around the place. There's also a bit of Sc and FSc around the place, but all not worth a note apart from the upper-level air-streams. The current temp ~ 17, and will probably stay that way for some days to come, if not rise.
:cheers:

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#15145 - 18/09/2004 18:38 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
BOM shows high centre now south of Kangaroo Island and predicts it will move east tomorrow. I can’t see any significant convective cloud assosiated with the Western Australian trough on the current IR satellite photo so no action likely from that quarter for a while at least. Weather from Tuesday on next week looks to be more delicately balanced - depending on whether fronts traverse coastal districts or whether they go south-east and miss us. I predict that by Wednesday evening we will see some post-frontal coastal showers including a few in Adelaide. I am not convinced this high is strong enough to steer the coming fronts far enough south to miss us. I would like to predict that on Sunday a light to moderate northerly will bring warmer temps over the Adelaide area but I think there is a reasonable chance we will stay in a light variable winds situation.

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#15146 - 18/09/2004 18:49 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14800
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Saturday 18/9/04

The day was generally fine, with light and variable winds early, shifting light wsw for most of the afternoon due to a very weak seabreeze. Cloud was generally small Cu and Fc with some patches of Cirrus and a brilliant deck of Cirrcocumulus in the mid afternoon. Temp reached 18.4C at the BoM, more moisture in the atmosphere (lot of haze today) and the weak seabreeze just limited the temp.

Sunday 19/9/04

Generally another fine and pretty sunny day. This patters is set to continue now for at least 3 more days with temps progessively getting warmer. Wind should be more NE to north tomorrow for parts of the day but still pretty light and variable with the likelyhood of afternoon seabreeze penetration. Very weak however.

My forecast: Fine and Sunny - 21C
BoM: 22C

TS cool

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#15147 - 19/09/2004 07:36 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
Now, Nazdeck’s interesting comments on the transition from winter to spring:

"So far this month we have had about 46 mm, which doesn't seem like much unless you consider that this feels like the weather patterns are going through a transitional period from Winter/Spring Hybrid to Summer. Certainly to now I have not really been able to distinguish where the beginning of proper spring weather has been. Spring doesn't feel it was ever here, only a hybrid of it. This feels like it has been a very hybrid year so far, with the seasonal conditions being irregular and out of sync and topsy-turvy and seemingly like never seen before (in some cases)."

Does experience tell us there is either a gradual transition between winter and spring or a sudden transition or something else? The daylength gradually increases, the average temperatures gradually increase although it is very slow because the prevailing winds tend to be from the southern ocean which is still quite cold and it brings with it that obnoxious low cloud cover we are all familiar with frown . In most years I don’t think we see any classical quick transition from winter to spring weather - what actually happens is that periods of typical winter weather continue in September and October but we also see an increasing number of ‘typical’ spring days as well.

This is where the concept of “winspring” comes in. In coastal and near-coastal southern Australia, in September and October there are many days where the weather is typical of winter weather in terms of temperature, rain, wind and cloud. The only difference is that the daylengths are longer and perhaps the temps are a degree or two warmer. On such days the only thing that would tell you that it is spring and not winter is the daylength. There are other days in September and October where the weather is more typical of what we imagine spring days should be like - sunny, warm and fine, perhaps with some scattered picturesque clouds around. My guess is that there are about equal numbers of typically winter weather days and typically spring weather days in September and October. Hence the name winspring for September and October.

What does this mean for our day to day forecasting in September and October for coastal and near-coastal South Australia? It means that our forecasting should not be influenced by any view we may have that the weather is going to suddenly and irrevocably switch to some mythical sunny warm spring pattern. There may be periods of such weather but that’s all they are - temporary warm periods, and they will often be followed by periods of typical winter weather. It’s in November that we usually see the great transition towards summer weather smile .

Now, today’s weather (Sunday) - I have consulted the charts, webcams, satellite photo and the oracles, and I can see no sign that the weather will do anything unexpected or unpredicted today. For Adelaide area - fine, sunny, light ne wind, weak sea breeze. A few little clouds over the hills early arvo probably the biggest drama we can expect.

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#15148 - 19/09/2004 09:45 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
---- Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/11/2002
Posts: 5786
This is OZ where the seasons can change in 24 hours. It seems to me that there is rarely a gradual transition to any of the seasons, our mind just likes to remember it that way. Nor is the time of the year that "it turns" consistent to the week as can be seen in some northern countries who have in years past set their clocks by the season change.
I wholeheartedly blame dominating high pressure systems and where they "decide" to plant their big fat arses. wink laugh .........
Anyway, a nice and very dewy night. Enough to trip the rain gauge. Yesterday was nice, topping out at 14.5 degrees. Today will be a little warmer with winds variable from the NE to SE tending mostly SE in the evening. Summery style SE breezes from the lakes are dropping temps very quickly in the evening and bringing moisture along with them hence our dews.
Pastures are growing like mad in this weather.
laugh

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#15149 - 19/09/2004 13:11 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6782
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Judging from the my temperature and rainfall records to now, it seems as if seasonal weather patterns can change both abruptly and more gradually. I don't necessary think that the patterns always change gradually or always abruptly, but over the past 10 years or so we've experienced prolonged periods of cooler, mild winter-type temperatures (with absence of rainfall) right through into November, while at other times the wintery conditions have started all the way back in May (with onset being within a month or even days on some occasions), and only extended into mid August or there abouts. I think that the "butterfly effect", (in which system behaviour diverges from initial conditions, yielding different initial conditions), and which is really a foregone conclusion, has as much to do with it as anything else. In principle, the weather can be predicted to 100% accuracy, but in reality, as we consider small errors and "noise" to be negligible and will never really have the capability to cover all errors, no where near 100% accuracy is possible! I believe that further research into chaotic behaviour (that's predictable) is essential to improving forecasts. Long-term speaking, the SOI is dropping (on the scale of 100s of years), though the slope of the drop seems to be very gradual, so my forecast is for conditions this Spring-Summer season to get even more chaotic wink (maybe expect a lot more stormy activity)!
:cheers:

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#15150 - 19/09/2004 20:12 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
One of the things that has struck me in the past few years is just how accurate the forecasts often are over the short term - over three or four days. I think one of the main reasons for this is that large spinning air masses - the highs and lows, have considerable stability due simply to their size and spin. They don’t fall apart or suddenly change direction at the drop of a hat, it takes a few days. So even though chaos is an ever present element in the weather, it doesn’t tend to wreck the short term forecasts, it takes a few days before small errors in the forecasts can magnify up to forecast-destroying magnitude. This is fortunate because it means our short term forecasts can be pretty accurate if we have sufficient data, despite the presence of chaos.

Hillsrain says “our mind just likes to remember it that way” - I agree with that, and “I wholeheartedly blame dominating high pressure systems and where they "decide" to plant their big fat arses. .........” - that’s certainly a major influence and I wish I knew why highs favour particular locations sometimes and other locations other times.

Nazdeck says “In principle, the weather can be predicted to 100% accuracy” - well I’m glad in practice it can’t be - I would find 100% certainty very boring frown . Mind you we would be able to carefully prepare for storms and know just where the best vantage points would be, so I suppose it would have some advantages.

Now, the coming weather. Of interest is a weak low pressure centre which BOM have drawn on the Nullarbour about where the SA - WA border meets the coast. There’s also a bit more cloud in that general area than there was yesterday, so ever optimistic I am keeping my eye on that area for something unexpected to develop. Don’t have time to study the tea-leaves tonight for a really accurate forecast for tomorrow - but do have time to quote Nazdeck “so my forecast is for conditions this Spring-Summer season to get even more chaotic” (maybe expect a lot more stormy activity)! I’ll drink to that!
:cheers:

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#15151 - 19/09/2004 20:56 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14800
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Sunday 19/9/04

In brief today was fine and mild, max of 20.2C, didnt think 22C was right so went for 21C. Generally a very nice day for the garden, not a cloud all day, weak seabreeze in arvo but thats it.

Monday 20/9/04

High moves further east, thermal ridge starts to influence us and temps should jump much more substantially tomorrow. Winds will be light to occasionally moderate NE to North, generally a clear day, chance of some middle level cloud about perhaps, bit of Altocumulus but nothing much.

My Forecast - Fine and mild to warm: - 25C
BoM Forecast - 26C

TS cool

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#15152 - 19/09/2004 23:54 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Jacob Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/09/2001
Posts: 6288
Loc: Sydney, NSW
Ive a good equation.. All my own making too..

Adelaide weather = Ceduna Weather -3 hrs.... :p

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#15153 - 20/09/2004 11:36 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6782
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Quote:
Originally posted by Jacob:
Ive a good equation.. All my own making too..

Adelaide weather = Ceduna Weather -3 hrs.... :p
Huhah...might want to add: Ceduna Supercell cores = Adelaide Supercell cores*2 or 3 wink . G'd damn this weather is crap frown :rolleyes: ! Temps will surely hit mid 20s today! Even early this morning it felt like summer was here already eek ! High cloud and fracto low cloud with lots and lots of sun! Still a bit fresh though (relief).
:cheers:

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#15154 - 20/09/2004 12:43 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
TS - next time you post a forecast, a brief explanation of ‘thermal ridge’ would be valuable - I couldn’t find it in the glossary and I’ve never heard it before in weather forecasts etc. Jacob - a problem with your formula is that Ceduna is considerably further north than Adelaide and some of the interesting weather Ceduna gets misses Adelaide to the north or simply disippates when it moves away from the coast. Ceduna has also been having a lot of virtual weather lately that hasn’t been reaching Adelaide due to the Adelaide radar being better tuned :p .

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#15155 - 20/09/2004 16:51 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
---- Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/11/2002
Posts: 5786
Geez what a day up here. Not a cloud in the sky and made 23 degrees! 27 degrees on the plains both sides of me and 30 forecast for tomorrow. Don't want too much heat to early or too quick without rains.
Don't see anything of significance in the near future though frown
Oh well for now its a pleasant day indeed...

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#15156 - 20/09/2004 20:40 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14800
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Disgraceful forecast by me yesterday, not happy at all mad

Monday 20/9/04

Much warmer than we all thought really NE kicked in overnight, sun came up temp shot off like a rocket with absolutely no breeze anywhere air heated more quickly and locally, hence KT was warmer than everywhere due to concrete all round it. Max 27.6C, I was down on the south coast all day, Waitpinga, Victor Harbour, Middleton and it was dead calm there too, perhaps 2 knot northerly, waves were glassy as, offshore was like a mirror, never seen it so calm offshore down there in my life.

Tornadosky - thermal ridge (sorry didnt explain but im always caught for time, I am tonight lol) but in brief its pretty much a temperature ridge instead of a pressure ridge. Area of warmer air in ridge like formation ridging southward from the interior of Australia, normally ahead of a cold front, this one is well ahead and we should see hotter temps tomorrow.

Tuesday 21/9/04

Light winds, clear skies will prevail again. Awesome day for mowing the lawn. Last of the 'hot' days for now, should crack 30C too lol hmmmm.

My Forecast - Fine and warm to hot: - 30C (could well hit 31-32C however but I doubt it....watch those winds early in the day)

BoM Forecast - 30C

TS cool

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#15157 - 20/09/2004 20:43 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14800
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Quote:
Originally posted by nazdeck:
Quote:
Originally posted by Jacob:
[b] Ive a good equation.. All my own making too..

Adelaide weather = Ceduna Weather -3 hrs.... :p
Huhah...might want to add: Ceduna Supercell cores = Adelaide Supercell cores*2 or 3 wink . G'd damn this weather is crap frown :rolleyes: ! Temps will surely hit mid 20s today! Even early this morning it felt like summer was here already eek ! High cloud and fracto low cloud with lots and lots of sun! Still a bit fresh though (relief).
:cheers: [/b]
LOL More like Ceduna supercell cores = Adelaide virga in 3 hours....

TS cool

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#15158 - 20/09/2004 21:29 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Keith Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/12/2001
Posts: 6453
Loc: Kings Langley, NSW
Quote:
Originally posted by Thunderstruck:
Tornadosky - thermal ridge (sorry didnt explain but im always caught for time, I am tonight lol) but in brief its pretty much a temperature ridge instead of a pressure ridge. Area of warmer air in ridge like formation ridging southward from the interior of Australia, normally ahead of a cold front, this one is well ahead and we should see hotter temps tomorrow.
The BoM sometimes refer to thermal troughs in their weather chart notes. A trough of colder air, as against a ridge of warmer air.

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#15159 - 21/09/2004 00:26 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3672
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
tonights weather was very strange in that when i knocked off work about 11:30pm it smelt like it had just rained (you know the smell) and the moths were everywhere (like it had rained), although there was barely cloud in sight..

about the only clouds about where scattered in a tiny patch around the moon.

very stange indeed, i could have SWORN it had rained

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#15160 - 21/09/2004 07:56 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
---- Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/11/2002
Posts: 5786
Totally the opposite here. You could be forgiven for thinking summer has been around for weeks if not for the green paddocks. Did not drop below 15 degrees all night and is 16.8 ATM (7:20am) !!!!! Not a drop of dew anywhere.
This heat can nick off for another 4 weeks unless it brings stormy conditions with it and I can't see that.. sigh..

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#15161 - 21/09/2004 08:12 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
Thanks TS and Keith for your comments on thermal ridges and troughs - I’ll add the terms to my weather vocabulary.

Seaworthy says “about the only clouds about were scattered in a tiny patch around the moon” - maybe that was those moths! wink

Hillsrain - liked your photo - captured yesterday’s somewhat hazy clear blue sky well. This is great weather for people eg myself who love sun and some heat in the days and nights but I certainly agree that at this time of the year we would not want a series of these kinds of highs one after the other. But from a personal point of view:
“Did not drop below 15 degrees all night” smile
“This heat can nick off for another 4 weeks” frown
“unless it brings stormy conditions with it” smile

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#15162 - 21/09/2004 08:28 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
800 am Tues - just looked at the latest IR satellite photo - there's considerably more cloud in the bight than there was yestereday - don't know what it is or what it means but I will be keeping my eye on it.

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