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#16083 - 09/03/2005 11:40 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15016
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
It is the rain event im going on....ive been feeling this for a week now, maybe 1.5 weeks and the event is still potentially a week and a bit off. It all depends on the position of the cyclone. It is likely to become a cat4 or 5 IMO, and it is likely to be very LARGE. There will be a massive infeed of moisture from this and inland WA will see a heap of rain thats almost assured. But as I said, it all depends on position of the cyclone as it crosses the coast. Ideal for us would be around Shark Bay (where there is a big bend in WA), too far N of that would mean all the moisture would dry out over the very dry interiors, and too far south would mean that a lot of it would be captured up in the strong cold front moving up from the sw, and hence a lot would be wasted over the southern ocean.

So in between both is about right. The moisture and cloud from the decaying cyclone can feed in ahead of the front, prolly along a jetstream and also advect in the sfc layers to the SE. The front will then drag it down ahead of itself and as the front nears the band a massive cloudband should form, channeling a lot of moisture, with the very high precipitable water values progged.

GASP goes for more cyclogenesis and forms a cut-off low of sorts, but has most of the rain over the ocean....like as if the ocean needs more water. GASP also has the cyclone being very weak, maybe cat 1 or cat 2.

GFS goes for a more realistic scenario, a severe tropical cyclone, strong front, moisture infeed and heavy totals over inland WA, then having it caught up in the front and dragged below SA, but as the whole system pushes east the rainband should still pass over us. Bit iffy atm but the general shell of the system is there, its just that there are no fillings smile

TS cool

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#16084 - 09/03/2005 12:07 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Monaro Offline
Member

Registered: 30/10/2004
Posts: 127
Loc: The Wetter Part of Blackwood, ...
Yes Tim it was a beautiful and cool this morning. I was up in Blackwood earlier at the shops and when i came out it was quite cool to my suprise, since the max temp today was forcasted to be 26 in Adelaide. Also i noticed some fog over Mt Lofty this morning it was quite a site.

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#16085 - 09/03/2005 13:15 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7762
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Quote:
Originally posted by Tornadosky:
Hillsrain and Naz who live in the fog zone and can't actually see the sky.
Yeah, true, but only up to about 1 km from the Bridgwater turn off when heading into the city LOL. The fog was rather dense on the ground but only up to about 100 ft thick. When it was finally clearing I could see plenty of Cirrostratus, Cirrocumulus and Cirrus in general (more puffy and speckled than anything else though). I didnít check what the overnight low was but it didnít feel as cold as the night before, but there was still a bit of a chill.
Quote:
Originally posted by seaworthy:
GASP 192 and GFS 168 look rather tasty at the moment. GFS has moisture being dragged down from a tropical cyclone it appears as does GASP but in a broader sense.
Iím still hoping for something solid to happen, even if at the moment thereís only skeletal tendencies!
:cheers:

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#16086 - 10/03/2005 06:45 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
Yes - predicting the path of the remant low left by WA cyclones after they cross the coast, and whether we will get rain from the moisture associated with the cyclone, is a hazardous and unreliable business frown . "There's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip".
TS says "a lot [of rain] would be wasted over the southern ocean" and "like as if the ocean needs more water". Never a truer word spoken! If we could collect that rainwater before it mixes with seawater then our water problems would be solved. Rain falling into the sea is the second most useless creation of the weathergods after stratus :nerd: .

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#16087 - 10/03/2005 12:55 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17674
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Very interesting to see BOM going for moisture from TC Willy to intrude into southern SA by this Monday.. producing some mid-level precipitation...

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#16088 - 10/03/2005 13:02 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15016
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yer sure is. I wouldn't have thought the moisture would be directed down here from it just yet, only from the weak slow moving disturbance currently south of WA thats generating storms off the southern WA coast.

Model progs are all over the place, but they do agree on a general meridional setup for a change.

TS cool

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#16089 - 10/03/2005 16:14 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15016
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
March 10th and 11th state analysis:

A large, strong high was responsible for fine and warm to hot conditions over much of the state today.

Tomorrow will see similar conditions with a hot and dry NE airstream prevailing over most pastoral and agricultural districts. However, due to the presence of an upper level trough and weak surface trough, isolated showers and possible thunder are likely to develop in the west later in the day. High cloud will increase in other remaining districts.


Adelaide Forecast

Fine and warm to hot with increasing high cloud. Light and variable winds.

Max 33C
BoM 33C

Adelaide outlook

Saturday - Possible shower 34C (BoM 35C)
Sunday - Fine and hot 35C (BoM 35C)
Monday - Dry, increasing high cloud 37C (BoM 35C)

Statewide Trend

Saturday - Generally fine and hot over most areas of the state as a result of a strong high pressure system over the Tasman directing NE winds over most areas. A weak upper level trough will result in isolated shower activity, possibly thundery about KI and Lower Eyre Peninsula. Little significant rainfall is expected.

Sunday - The trough will dissipate and NE to N winds will prevail over most districts resulting in fine, hot and mostly sunny conditions.

Monday - Hot to very hot conditions will extend throughout most districts as hot, dry air from the centre of Australia is advected southward, well into southern areas of SA. The combination of Severe Tropical Cyclone Willy and the high to the east will channel very hot and dry air over most districts. Fire bans likely as winds may increase ahead of a strenthening trough in the west.

Long term trend

Tuesday, wednesday and thursday will see the weather become very complex for this time of year. Current model guidance is agreeing that there will be a significant infeed of tropical moisture over inland and southern WA during this period. The timing and landfall latitude of the cyclone is critical in determining whether or not this moisture is channeled down towards Adelaide. A strong cold front is likely to move up from the SW and encompass this moisture, marching eastward and delivering areas of rain to many districts. Condtions will then quickly return to warm, humid and unstable with further potential for showers and possibly thunderstorms.

TS cool

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#16090 - 10/03/2005 18:06 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3673
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
GASP 144 and 168 shows what i would consider a favourable setup rainfall wise for adelaide, but GFS and my old friend COLA have the rain mostly evading adelaide to the south - however i expect that the variations in distribution of rainfall will be fairly erratic from day to day until it gets closer. there is potential there!

i'm not really happy about these hot days that are on the horizon, when can we expect the high pressure belt to move northwards?

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#16091 - 11/03/2005 12:53 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
Considerable lightning activity continues in Bight waters and it's slowly moving east. With a bit of luck we might see some lightning in coastal districts during the hours of darkness, perhaps early tomorrow. The last two systems have failed to produce any sig lightning, perhaps it will be third time lucky.
PS BOM not mentioning lightning with this system, and forecasting isolated showers (but some doubt about rain amounts) from next system. So here's your chance for a shootout with the BOM forecasters. They've put their money on the table - anyone care to forecast something different? I'll be optimistic and go for a bit of coastal lightning (mostly over the sea) Adelaide and points south just before sunrise tomorrow, and areas of rain with the next system producing five to ten mm in the southern ag districts.

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#16092 - 11/03/2005 18:16 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7762
Loc: Adelaide Hills
I'm forecasting that Tropical Cyclone Willy will probably gain some intensity (out to possibly Sunday morning). I believe there's still a reasonable chance that the rainfall intensity will have intensified by Saturday morning to afternoon, and that it will remain relatively consist into Sunday.

During this time a low and front will be developing to the far SW of the Bight, with the low (near the bottom of the MLAPS model) diving further south, the front beginning to move NE-ENE in the general direction of the Bight.

As the front approaches a long-wave upper trough will be developing, associated with the front, and in pushing further east will influence the high-pressure system moving out of the Bight, aiding in the formation of one and possibly two desirable surface troughs.

A ridge (or part of a high) may begin to form in the Bight at this time (tomorrow?) with the broad upper troughs and ridges in the west aiding in preventing any further decent frontal activity from moving up from the far SW.

While I'm sceptical about TC Willy hitting the WA central coast with any potency, I believe it's possible that we will be getting some infeed activity off the southern and southwesterly rain activity of Willy. In feeding in along the upper leading edge of the high to move in/form in the Bight. The front may aid in this process with a possibly large high move into the Bight after that (probably just one high though), cradling the TC activity, but this is now getting to bit far out (Wednesday morning).

I have to say that GFS is looking mighty interesting at the moment smile !
:cheers:

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#16093 - 11/03/2005 19:32 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
Yes Naz the cyclone is a long way away in both distance and time so forecasting at this early stage is bound to be pretty speculative. Great satellite picci though - I doubt if there have been many cyclones in our region more photogenic than this one.
Meanwhile closer to home there's a large area of lightning activity only a few hundred km south-west of us but will we ever see it? - it's been moving slowly approx south-east during the day so there will need to be some developments further north if we are to get any lightning in southern SA. Maybe early tomorrow will be favourable for convection over coastal waters as it sometimes seems to be.

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#16094 - 11/03/2005 21:31 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7762
Loc: Adelaide Hills
With regards to the possibility of lightning in southern SA, I don't think we'll be getting any within the next couple of days, or too soon anyway; I hope I'm wrong smile .

What we have is a setup where troughs are becoming more dominant in the latitudes between the tropics and the highs around our latitude and a little further to the south, which means that highs (and the frontal systems that go with them) are being kept further south than they would be otherwise (a "lid" is being kept on most of the activity from the south reaching up into our latitudes).

I have also noted, as have some others, that the TCs appear to be occurring in clusters (the ones over near Florida, over in the Pacific, and now arounds northern Australia) and they seem to be coming in sets of 3-4 (for Australia it seems to be only 2 atm, but maybe some severe tropic storm activity added on over near where TC Ingrid initially formed, or over in the Gulf of Carpintaria would scrape through to give 2-3 wink )!

I have a feeling the earthquakes that have been occurring around the world (in America, Sumatra, north of Darwin, Spain and so on) have also had an influence on the global climate and that, in some way, the clusters of TC (or whatever you want to call them) are a resulting consequence, and that they have also distrupted the weather patterns on a more national scale to some extent (these climbing temperatures, 12 days without rain, consecutive clear-sky nights, 5-degree overnight lows, lack of humidity (here), abundance of it in the north, the monsoon trough still seemingly strong in the north around Darwin, the severity of the TC around Australia, storm complexes still frequently erupting nearer the east coast with severe conditions and so on).

Although I probably made a rather speculative forecast and conditions can change markedly within a short space of time and significantly affect the models, I believe there is a certain reasonably to the chance of TC Willy venturing much further south, and this particular cluster of TC events around Australia seems to be following a global trend, and this global trend has be reasonable consistent so far, it's just a matter of how long the trend will last before the seasonal variations get back into sync a bit more.

These temperatures are beginning to feel somewhat atypical of March conditions, and I would've expected them to have occurred maybe back in late February at the latest, but alas, something feels different (yet again) about the weather, only different in a different way to last year's anomalies.
:cheers:

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#16095 - 12/03/2005 08:07 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
Payneham Saturday morning. Another possibility of lightning bites the dust frown (doubtless it was delusional anyway) :nerd: . The storms that were so active over the ocean in this current system for two days or more seem to have died completely. Over Adelaide at present thereís an innocuous mostly flat patchy middle level cloud cover coming slowly from approx the NW. Thereís a bit of isolated vertical development over the hills but insufficient for more than a few local spots at max. Sigh :rolleyes: .

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#16096 - 12/03/2005 12:59 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15016
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yes over 6000 strikes recorded in the bight....all cos of that upper trough and surface trough I was ona bout b4...I went for isolated showers, possibly thundery about the southern EP coast and KI...so not too bad lol.

But briefly, as I havent has much time over past days to comment, the setup is not favouring a proper infeed over us yet, cos of a blasted upper ridge. Till that weakens nothing will move up from the SW and drag the moisture down towards us...the jetstream remains weak, as the meridional flow continues, hence hot weather.

So here is a bried forecast:

Sunday - Fine and hot to very hot, light to moderate NE to N winds and a light afternoon seabreeze. Max 37C BoM 35C

Monday - Fine and hot with increasing high cloud. Light to moderate N winds shifting W later. Max 35C BoM 35C

Tuesday - Mostly Cloudy with isolated showers/ and or patchy light rain...toughie atm.

Generally I am NOT expecting big falls yet as the meridional setup is strongly dominant. Wghen that weakens and a more zonal flow occurs then we should see more interaction between the left over moisture, heat from inland and colder air from the SW and W. Only then will a large rainband form.

Perth on the other hand will see the fresh remnants of TC Willy, looking likely for a lot of rain for them with some streaming off towards us, but not a lot at this stage, mainly patchy light rain or isolated showers from middle level Ac/As.

TS cool

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#16097 - 12/03/2005 14:28 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
"isolated showers, possibly thundery about the southern EP coast and KI" - that was pretty close TS. I'm going for 34 tomorrow and 38 Monday. Let's hope some of that cyclone moisture when it gets to southern WA gets caught up in the meridional flow and arrives here at the same time as a front.
At 130 pm it was 35 at Kent Town and 25 at Port Lincoln, and I'd say cooler air is only an hour or so away from Adelaide. It's still a moderate hot north-westerly at Payneham at 155 pm. The only cloud over Adelaide is a bit of cirrus.

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#16098 - 12/03/2005 16:41 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15016
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Ok I'll revise my forecast, seeing the BoM get to so will I.

36C tomorrow, main sunny
33C monday, cloudy periods, late change
25C tuesday, cloudy periods, mainly fine

Generally there is a massive, strong upper ridge blocking any frontal movement, any infeed thats coming down from WA is feeding nearly dead south and into the southern ocean all wasting. Combined with the upper ridge, drier air aloft seems to be moving up from the south goin by pwat's on GFS, which will just increase subsidence when the ridge reforms again after tuesday's change. So after that I'd expect temps to go back up into the 30's come by next friday/saturday.

TS cool

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#16099 - 12/03/2005 20:06 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
Looks like Ingrid is going to steal the show - almost worth leaving for Darwin this evening smile .
One thing in our favour is, some of the moisture from Willy is at least flowing into a trough over WA, and there is a front coming up from the south-west which presumably will come across in proximity to the trough. So I don't see it as a lost cause yet - I'm still going for some rain late Monday and Tuesday morning.

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#16100 - 12/03/2005 21:55 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15016
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yer with the late change as I said, isolated showers and or patchy rain but not much.....I think Darwin are in dire trouble.

TS cool

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#16101 - 13/03/2005 08:27 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
Payneham 745 am Sunday. It's a lovely cool morning here, mostly clear but there's a patchy filmy-thin layer of cloud over the eastern part of Adelaide, coming slowly from about the west, and below that a few bits of low cloud.

I have a saying "When the monsoon is active in northern Australia it's likely to be fine in southern Australia." I reason that when the air is rising in the north and the moisture is falling out of it up there, it's falling in the south as dry air, hence high ridges tend to predominate in our area. If this reasoning is at least partly correct, with Ingrid in full flight in the north it's not surprising we are having fine dry weather here.

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#16102 - 13/03/2005 12:05 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
---- Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/11/2002
Posts: 5786
Fine and dry is fine, but "hot" can nick off.. wink
I have always said much the same Lennie, seems to ring true most of the time.
A lovely and slightly foggy morning today and is still nice and cool at 11:30am. This would be perfect weather if it did not heat up any during the day. Don't want much do I laugh

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