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#16943 - 28/07/2005 22:27 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3673
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
MRF eased off slightly but still looking good for some potentially moderate falls in early august. GFS eased off too a bit but still long way to go, could die off completely but could strengthen...something to watch anyway

convection was certainly impressive this arvo

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#16944 - 29/07/2005 00:00 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
paisley Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/11/2001
Posts: 1121
Loc: Magill campus Uni SA (w) & Fir...
It might be as weak as dishwater but the cold front crossing KI on the 256k loop ATM is impressive simply because its so damn....linear!

P

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#16945 - 29/07/2005 00:17 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3673
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
yeah almost thought it was a squall line when i first saw it, impressive visually if nothing else smile

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#16946 - 29/07/2005 08:39 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
BOM is still predicting a cold upper disturbance and a few showers crossing SA on Saturday. TS - does it still look like it might produce a few zombie coldies? And anyone else who studies the charts - can you see any goodies in it? There's enough cloud on the satpic associated with the disturbance and front currently in WA lats to give me some hope of interesting weather tomorrow.

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#16947 - 29/07/2005 11:14 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14866
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Evene zombies will be tough to get mate now, its very weak, might scrap 2-3mm I guess. Not quite as zombie textbook as that last one, that was a shocker.

Yer models eased off the early Aug onslaught but Im still confident of a much better system before my birthday (10th).

TS cool

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#16948 - 29/07/2005 18:17 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
roves Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/02/2005
Posts: 1632
Loc: Paringa-Riverland
not liking how the system for early august is easing off.its make or break for a lot of farmers and this dry sunny weather is all to familar so im back to prayin for more rain frown
_________________________
YTD-74mm AVE-260mm

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#16949 - 30/07/2005 09:13 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
Clear, calm and cold in Adelaide so far this morning but the satpic suggests that it will be cloudy at times later today. The front seems to be making slow progress but nevertheless will traverse most of southern SA by midnight I would think. On the current satellite animation I can see no sign of any unusual development such as a new low centre north of the current centre, or any developing area of middle level cloud east of the front. Nevertheless there seems to be a reasonably extensive field of stratocumulus coming up from the south-west behind the front so I expect there will be some showers or drizzle tonight and tommorow in coastal districts. If there's a pool of cold air aloft I think it will cross into SA well west of the central districts and go up into the interiors.
Roves I can only suggest continued prayer - I can't see any natural source of rain in the Riverland for a few days at least. The predictions for early August may pick up again - they may be doing a bit of yo-yoing at the moment.
As for this comment by TS "Not quite as zombie textbook as that last one, that was a shocker" frown :nerd: - I knew zombie coldies were going to need a friend on this forum. Beeooootiful they were - should be more of 'em.
Signed - a secret admirer of zombie coldies smile .

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#16950 - 30/07/2005 10:08 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3673
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
yes well it has yo-yoed somewhat, the LWT looks to be now mostly peaking over TAS and VIC again and sending up showers in a southerly airstream once the front moves thru, although EP and KI look to be scoring the best of the front.

the trough itself looks to be moving quite slowly with a moderate strength high slowly moving over NZ

could the moisture it is taking from the coral sea be slung back up the western flank toward us TS?

oh yeah COLA/IGES seems to be updating after both GFS updates now, not just the afternoon one, and it does look promising for us

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#16951 - 30/07/2005 10:58 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7163
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Hmm, I can't see much in this next system :rolleyes: , not that there isn't anything decent on the way, as there sure looks like there will be, but I won't be expecting much more than a few mm at the most, with a fair bit of drizzle and probably mostly light rain and possibly some moderate, I guess it all depending on how conditions will change over the hours. If we get moderate or heavy falls (more likely I'm thinking moderate falls at the best) then that would seem to indicate for me that the conditions to the southwest with the system after this one coming may be stronger, or else energy is being drawn from this system coming into the one that's to follow, or something like that; working on a model kind of distracts you from properly getting back into this :rolleyes: , but I'm still reading.

Like Tsky mentioned, it's a very nice wink day today, for those of us who're getting a bit more use to this stuff now smile , while it lasts (!?). Clear-sky and mostly still conditions up here atm after an overnight low of just 3 with a current of 11. There is a light and mildly refreshing breeze, but the warmth dominates...the other warmth - you have the drizzly warmth contributed to by the overcast conditions from the last system, and then this warmth in-between the systems. I haven't had such a blissful combination for a long time, or at least not in recent times properly, partly due to the somewhat erratic and significant changes in day-to-day temperatures.
:cheers:

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#16952 - 30/07/2005 11:28 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Ricky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/09/2003
Posts: 1570
Loc: West Richmond
Well this one looks hard to predict atm. It has the makings of a decent system but with what we've been getting latley who knows. Certainly looks to have some nice cold air, GFS has thickness down to 530 over adelaide on thursday. Guess we will just have to wait and see.

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#16953 - 30/07/2005 13:22 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Tornadosky Offline
Member

Registered: 31/05/2004
Posts: 1739
Loc: Adelaide
Meanwhile, back on the immediate front, a few fairy floss stratocumulus have developed in the Adelaide area in the north-westerly. I can still see no signs of anything unusual or unexpected happening in the next 12 hours. Of interest are patches of cloud north of Port Augusta but there wouldn't seem to be any mechanism to trigger rain up there at present. Also of interest is a patch of high cloud in the western Bight that might indicate cold air aloft so I'll be watching to see where that goes.
As Naz says, it's quite a pleasant day, and yes I agree Naz - one good thing (probably the only good thing) about the drizzle is it keeps the temperature up particularly in the early mornings.

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#16954 - 30/07/2005 14:28 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7163
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Quote:
Originally posted by Tornadosky:
Meanwhile, back on the immediate front, a few fairy floss stratocumulus have developed in the Adelaide area in the north-westerly. I can still see no signs of anything unusual or unexpected happening in the next 12 hours. Of interest are patches of cloud north of Port Augusta but there wouldn't seem to be any mechanism to trigger rain up there at present. Also of interest is a patch of high cloud in the western Bight that might indicate cold air aloft so I'll be watching to see where that goes.
As Naz says, it's quite a pleasant day, and yes I agree Naz - one good thing (probably the only good thing) about the drizzle is it keeps the temperature up particularly in the early mornings.
Yeah, I noticed that development, but maybe it's just because of the effects of the Ranges and so on that I'm seeing more convective Cu than anything. There was as definitely a lot of Cu development out here this morning, and now into the afternoon, and we've still got a presistent slight breeze which I'm assuming is coming from the northwest to north-northwest direction judging by the motion of the Cu.

Despite there being mostly puffy-scuddy Cu development over most of the sky, to the south I've noticed move Cu/Sc blending, with a fair few what look like convective eddies or something (the "eddy" or swirling motion gets more sigificant as I look from south to north). There might also be a bit of sheer or something up there because the bases of most of the Cu/Sc (mostly puffy-scuddy Cu again) look like they are shredding as there is a faster layer of cloud motion at or near the base of formation. The formation also seems to be very brisk and strongly real-time, almost like time-laps only smooth. This brisk formation now seems to have led to some solid Cu/Sc formation.

There was about 4-5/8 coverage earlier on but now seems to be 6-7/8 coverage with the increasingly "smoothly" and windy layer up there constantly dragging the Cu/Sc from west to east, which I haven't seen in this kind of way since (from memory) one of the windest days (up there) I've ever experienced, some time in the last 2 to 3 years, only that's about as much as I can remember; I've yet to experience and windier day.

And on the drizzle, it's great when the energy from the surface is trapped under a thick deck wink , and part of the reason why I like those kind of wintery days over the more poignant haily ones and so on (which I find less likeable because) is that I'm unable to maintain my enthausiasm and excitement for such a long time, the last snap back conditions being a very good example, going on and on over two weeks 2 :rolleyes: frown ). I'm happy with the situation as present, but I'd like it a lot if I had a greater sense of things "getting back on track". Just got the wait for the next snappy spell I guess, HmmMM.
:cheers:

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#16955 - 30/07/2005 19:52 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14866
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Front and system looks good, gunna be quite cold and I would be having hail on our forecast for thursday. Showers, small hail, windy, 13C.

About 10-20mm for most for the event I'd say.

TS cool

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#16956 - 30/07/2005 20:05 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
percy_04 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/05/2004
Posts: 1653
Loc: Unley, SA, Fine weather bubble...
lol, i hope so! ALWAYS cold and wet on my bday (thurs) so it will b cold and raining, hail a definant. lol

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#16957 - 30/07/2005 21:51 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3673
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
interesting to note that GFS not all that excited just yet, however OCF suggesing falls of around 20mm over a 3 day period (wed to fri), with around 30mm in the prone wetspot of Parawa

MRF has certainly eased it off for us but shows another cold outbreak potentially for August 9th. have to say though that this warmish weather has been a welcome change..still, absence makes the heart grow fonder, and my heart is yearning for some DECENT coldies smile

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#16958 - 30/07/2005 21:54 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3673
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
interesting to note that GFS not all that excited just yet, however OCF suggesing falls of around 20mm over a 3 day period (wed to fri), with around 30mm in the prone wetspot of Parawa

MRF has certainly eased it off for us but shows another cold outbreak potentially for August 9th. have to say though that this warmish weather has been a welcome change..still, absence makes the heart grow fonder, and my heart is yearning for some DECENT coldies smile

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#16959 - 31/07/2005 10:26 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
roves Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/02/2005
Posts: 1632
Loc: Paringa-Riverland
Not sure if the wet stuff will make it up this far, but Karl is talking about a rainband which exites a bit i'll take 5-10mm at the moment and hopefully its a start to bigger and wetter systems to come over the next few weeks an maybe months! wink
_________________________
YTD-74mm AVE-260mm

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#16960 - 31/07/2005 12:37 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7163
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Looking at the lastest GFS run, despite the high tending to dominate with a seemingly more zonal pattern, with the zonal flow to the south looking to be impinging more and more on the climatic phase and patterns that have hung around since the last snap back (which I'm thinking is possibly a kind of shift in itself), I'm thinking that the next snap back, so-to-speak...(or simply return to the more wintery conditions of past years, maybe, although I could still be off the mark a bit there given things are still shifting),...might not to be as significant.

I'm going with 10 to 15 mm for the system this coming week, just for the moment, favouring the more phase-shift response lag of GASP which I don't think I've seen like this in a long time, almost as though GASP is behaving a bit like GFS should confused ...unless this this just another indicator of why not to favour any one single model over another wink :rolleyes: confused , interesting anyway.

As for that massive development along the east coast predicted by GFS for late this week and into the weekend, I'm not too sure about that. It looks a bit too significant at the moment for me to give any decent weight to it. I'm thinking it'll degrade some time in the next few days. That kind of devleopment, model-wise, looks a bit like the case with GASP predicting a huge infeed earlier on, going down into northeastern SA and through the mallee, when that scenario was pretty much lost over the following days.
:cheers:

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#16961 - 31/07/2005 13:01 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3673
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
annoyingly, GASP hasnt updated since the 28th so i wouldnt even bother with that. GFS 'updated' at 12:12 today according to the timestamp but the pictures dont look any different to yesterday afternoons update, i.e. still predicting not much for Adelaide

extended GFS, the only model to be properly updating, is hinting at a couple of cut off lows to move thru SA with perhaps moisture infeed in the 2nd

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#16962 - 31/07/2005 14:26 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7163
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
I'm still going to go with GASP for the moment, even if it hasn't updated, combined with some indicators from the other models that we could possibly be heading back into more of the wintery conditions of the past couple of weeks (the more overcast conditions with shorter sunnier spells between them). The zonal seems to be moving up towards us a bit regardless, although whether it finally returns to whatever in-sync is meant to be is yet to be seen.

Overall, something, some major or simply decent rains are on the way, and the indicators for another shift also seem to be becoming stronger; we can't stay in this pattern for too long. There's definitely a lack of a proper wintery feeling to the current conditions, and that being what I consider stating the too-obvious means to me that it's just as obvious that something is going to have to change for getting "back into sync," possibly in a more smooth fashion - a "buld-up" to a smooth change (shrug) (!?).
:cheers:

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