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#19523 - 12/01/2007 15:25 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
BD (Bucketing Down) Offline
Member

Registered: 12/04/2006
Posts: 1799
Loc: Eastern Adelaide Hills, SA
Stacked in here with smoke of reasonable proportions...hope its the Mt Bold fire!

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#19524 - 12/01/2007 16:29 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Weather Nugget Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/06/2002
Posts: 735
Loc: Southern suburbs, Adelaide
Quote:
Stacked in here with smoke of reasonable proportions...hope its the Mt Bold fire!
Most of that smoke will be from Mount Bold, a burnoff is currently being undertaken in that area at the moment and the wind will be taking it directly over you. There is however another fire now going at Harrogate, surprise surprise...
_________________________
Onkaparinga Hills live weather

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#19525 - 12/01/2007 16:40 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
BD (Bucketing Down) Offline
Member

Registered: 12/04/2006
Posts: 1799
Loc: Eastern Adelaide Hills, SA
Thanks Sam
That Harrogate person must be crazy, surely they cannot get away with it too much longer!...Yes, I can hear the Nairne sirens going from one of the firetrucks now, heading to Harrogate and one a liitle while ago.

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#19526 - 12/01/2007 17:25 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17567
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Well BOM have storms on the forecast for Tuesday now on and east of the ranges... smile Should be around on Wednesday as well, possibly Thursday further east, and probably again in most areas on Friday. Latest GFS looks fantastic! smile

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#19527 - 12/01/2007 18:33 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
BD (Bucketing Down) Offline
Member

Registered: 12/04/2006
Posts: 1799
Loc: Eastern Adelaide Hills, SA
Firetrucks and waterbombers been going passed and over us respectively for hours now to Harrogate!

Yer, looks good atm, TE

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#19528 - 12/01/2007 18:43 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9653
Loc: Mid North, SA
Quote:
Originally posted by teckert:
Latest GFS looks fantastic! smile
Yer, well I won't be holding my breath... I remember not too long ago how good GFS looked and it all fell in a heap. frown

Ian, not a single mention in the News and Media section of the CFS website... please keep on keeping us up-to-date. smile
_________________________
2017 YTD - 67.8mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - 32.8mm (10mm) / Feb - 35.0mm (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)
Total 2016 - 637.2mm



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#19529 - 12/01/2007 19:56 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17567
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
According to the Nine news tonight about 5 fires were reported late this afternoon in that area, including Nairne.

Helen, I'm not talking about the rainfall - I would totally disregard rainfall predications in convective set-ups like this. It's the synoptic set-up I'm interested in!!

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#19530 - 12/01/2007 20:02 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
BD (Bucketing Down) Offline
Member

Registered: 12/04/2006
Posts: 1799
Loc: Eastern Adelaide Hills, SA
It looks good for rain as well as storms with that set-up, but will still leave my opinion on amounts till Monday AM...the way things have been lately.
Though on this occasion I like the look of the blocky Tasman Sea area in the uppers. That if it stays will set SA up very nicely!

Sirens have eased off now. Firebug has ceased till tommorow!

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#19531 - 12/01/2007 20:32 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17567
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Yer Ch.9 just had footage of the Nairne fire on the newsbreak.

Also, The CFS have got a map online now of the Mt Bold fire and surrounds: http://www.cfs.org.au/pdf/MtBoldFire_12012007_0200_LocationMap.pdf
Worth a look... (3MB)

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#19532 - 12/01/2007 20:54 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3673
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
Went down to the SE lakes district today and came back through Kangarilla/Clarendon where I was duly overtaken by two SES 4WD's, roads leading to Mt Bold were blocked off so I knew a few things must have been a miss....

Also headed through Narrung, Langhorne Creek (I can tell that place gets some rain!) Nice drive all up

Looking interesting to say the least next week although my budget will be stretched should I decide to chase. All in all we havent done too bad this drought cycle smile (Storm wise of course)

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#19533 - 12/01/2007 20:56 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
BD (Bucketing Down) Offline
Member

Registered: 12/04/2006
Posts: 1799
Loc: Eastern Adelaide Hills, SA
Its on again sirens and waterbombers!

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#19534 - 12/01/2007 21:11 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17567
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Yep new fire on Princes Hwy, 5 mins from Nairne towards Dawnsley....

Seriously this person is gonna run out of luck soon.... hope the police catch him cos if its a member of the public - goodness knows what could happen!

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#19535 - 12/01/2007 21:54 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
BD (Bucketing Down) Offline
Member

Registered: 12/04/2006
Posts: 1799
Loc: Eastern Adelaide Hills, SA
Where did u get that info from Tim, nothing on CFS website?

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#19536 - 12/01/2007 21:59 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14935
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
mad he must be caught. The more fires he starts (it may be more than 1 person here, 1 main person and some copycats), the more publicity he gets, he is almost becoming a celebrity. Fortunately all harrogate fires are poorly treed and are grassfires, bit easier to access and put out.

Weather wise, yer looks SOLID atm, especially for another Mallee fest, NW-SE steering flow, general cold air aloft isn't as good nor is the sharpness of troughs aloft, but is a very broad scale divergent region of an upper longwave.

Steering flow is bad for Adelaide is it is surface based convection, even bad for ranges, at best back of ranges will get a storm with nw steering flow. But if Accas is present will make things a little more interesting for the Adelaide area, tho still north and east look best atm. Solid moisture, perhaps may become a little cluttered as more increase ahead of change on 20th. Best area atm along troughline around west vic and just into east SA.

TS cool

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#19537 - 12/01/2007 23:05 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14935
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Smell of smoke is increasing outside here, as wind goes from SW to S, smoke from Mt. Bold fire being carried more north across the suburbs.

Won't be too windy tonight, but will b 2moro night with 25knot+ gully winds.

TS cool

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#19538 - 13/01/2007 11:07 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17567
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Ian, CFS/SES Pager http://www.users.on.net/~jkoerner/monitor.html

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#19539 - 13/01/2007 11:17 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Hi guys I know how it is and feels to have these fires happening had them all summer here in Vic and definetly felt and seen it even in Melbourne wish you the best guys good luck to everyone there.
Had a look at latest EC model looks like EC has a major upper trough interacting the surface trough over Victoria & Tropical moisture coming down from the N & NW end of week to create a cut off low over SE SA on Friday before moving it over Victoria & Bass straight on Saturday if this is the case expect widespread good falls if this pulls off, it's a week out still so EC could change this but EC is quite reliable so the potential is there for something to happen at least from mid week onwards until next weekend.


John.

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#19540 - 13/01/2007 11:57 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
---- Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/11/2002
Posts: 5786
Quote:
Originally posted by seaworthy:
Also headed through Narrung, Langhorne Creek (I can tell that place gets some rain!)
It does??? Compared to what? Langhornes in particular is in quite a rain shadow with an annual average of just 392mm. There are a number of catchments through the area that have remnant veg in the watercourses that may look like it gets good rains and there is a lot of irrigation (mostly with lakes water) that take place. Interestingly the big pipe from the lakes to langhornes has been given zero water allocation next year if rains fail again which may see all the grapes and fruit trees etc etc likely die off! Disturbing and difficult times ahead.

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#19541 - 13/01/2007 13:00 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
seaworthy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/08/2004
Posts: 3673
Loc: Gawler East, SA - 102m
Hi Tim, it just looked like a wet place, must have been deceived by the irrigation, and the fact that there were a lot of 'Road subject to flooding' signs which now I think about it are probably because of the humpy road rather than rainfall itself.

Only 392mm? Thats less than Gawler! :p

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#19542 - 13/01/2007 13:12 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Johnoo Offline
Member

Registered: 23/11/2006
Posts: 8610
Loc: From: Where it forgot to Rain....
Hi Guys, seems like BOM may be following EC model for the coming weather over the next 6-7days

Heres is SA Notes on the weather & future explanation:

FORECAST EXPLANATION:
A high south of the Bight will maintain fine weather today.

On Sunday the high over the Bight and drift slowly east with mostly fine
conditions. Moisture associated with a monsoonal low over the north of Western
Australia will produce isolated showers in the far northwest of South Australia.


Tropical moisture is expected to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms
north of a line Coober Pedy to Leigh Creek on Monday. Further south will be fine
and warmer as winds tend northeasterly.

On Tuesday the isolated thunderstorms will extend over the Pastoral District and
the eastern border districts. Isolated showers are also expected over eastern
districts and north of a line Clare to Ceduna, tending scattered over the
Northeast Pastoral District. Temperatures will initially be hot to very hot with
freshening northerly winds. A cooler fresh to strong southwesterly change is
expected to develop over the west coast district during the morning, then extend
to remaining districts during the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday will see the tropical moisture extending throughout. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected to persist over the pastoral districts and possible
the north of the agricultural areas. Isolated showers will tend to scattered
over northern and western districts.

Cumulative rainfall totals until Wednesday night are expected to 2 to 5 mm in
the pastoral districts and Eyre Peninsula with local falls of 10 to 20 mm in
thunderstorms. Less than 2 mm expected over central and eastern agricultural
areas.

The outlook for Thursday, Friday and Saturday is unsure at this stage but
indications are for a low to form over South Australia during Friday, then move
southeast. This low will interact with the tropical moisture to produce more
widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Heres the link which indicates the sharp upper trough/cold front start interacting with the tropical moisture and surface through over SA. Wednesday onwards looks intresting especially Friday as the upper trough approaches from the Bight. Fingers crossed guys.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/isobarRain.jsp?chart=sum


John.

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