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#23023 - 11/05/2008 19:17 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Weathermaniac Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/10/2005
Posts: 842
Loc: Whyalla, SA
Woke up this morning to a nice thick fog. Visibility was less then 100m at times. Hung around till just after 10am. Same on the forecast tomorrow morning.
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RAINFALL YTD 55.8mm
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#23024 - 12/05/2008 10:18 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Weathergod Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/05/2007
Posts: 1675
Loc: Williamstown SA.
I can't wait for pepsi-max's long description of his stay in NZ. He must be right at home in winter wonderland. :p

A cold one this morning reaching 6.4 degress. Suprised I haven't found any frost on my lawn yet the coldest temp back in April was 5.4 degress and still no frost. confused
Oh well the least the better because I don't really won't a brown front lawn.

GFS all over the place with this cut-off low ATM. Quite a weird prog for sunday. Time for that straw clutching habit to start again.
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#23025 - 12/05/2008 11:24 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
seaworthee Offline
Junior Member

Registered: 08/02/2008
Posts: 33
Loc: Willaston, SA - The Ridge Stat...
You need around 2C at the very least to get any sort of frost to enable the ground temperature to drop below freezing. Water doesn't freeze at 5C..

Looks good for the end of this week, lots of uncertainty in the exact movement of the upper low, ideally it should be another 1000km west but like we say every time we get one some places will get slaughtered and some will completely miss out - as per the fickle nature of cut-offs.

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#23026 - 12/05/2008 12:10 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Weathergod Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/05/2007
Posts: 1675
Loc: Williamstown SA.
Yer thanks Ben, that's not forget last year the late April rains that delievered massive rainfall in the AG areas and hills where 100mm plus was recorded was from a cut-off low, or upper low. It was widespread because it was really organised unlike this one ATM. Things could change very easily, looking foward to the challenge of forecasting. smile

My uncle recently made a bold prediction saying there's going to be a massive blocking high at the start of june and then he says "Make most of this LWT now!" funny enough he usually proves right. I'll keep an eye of that and my fears may be true. We'll wait and see. wink
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#23027 - 12/05/2008 12:47 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
seaworthee Offline
Junior Member

Registered: 08/02/2008
Posts: 33
Loc: Willaston, SA - The Ridge Stat...
Only a few isolated spots recorded 100mm+ and it was the prone areas in the hills. There are always places that miss out with lows - you can get the low passing over a particular location and that means no rainfall whatsoever, this is exacerbated further if the low is stationary or slow moving and weakens in the process. Towns on the NE flank of the low might receive copious amounts of rain whereas on the SW flank you might receive nothing. Lennie was great at explaining this, perhaps he can elaborate if he's reading. smile

Now that I've had more time to look at the models, I'm really going to have to favour EC has it has a more believable setup with a strong front and dominant SW airstream. This seems to be the scenario that the BOM are favouring too. That doesn't mean to say I wouldnt be pleased with the GFS scneario!

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#23028 - 12/05/2008 18:38 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14866
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
GFS really is going nuts now with this cut-off low....it would bring some great rains to the coast but due to the lack of a tropical infeed, not a great deal of RAIN inland just spotty showers with very cold and very dry air aloft. But near the coast with the sfc low and onshore combined with that upper low geez could get wet. But EC goes for a more reserved and realistic approach with a strong front and showers and cold air.

TS cool

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#23029 - 13/05/2008 09:28 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17523
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Hope someone can get some shots of the rather interesting high-based 'virga' clouds out there atm... very wierd in some places!!
Apparently caused by the remnants of a weak upper trough...

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#23030 - 13/05/2008 11:33 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
SAsurfa Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/10/2005
Posts: 576
Loc: Adelaide
I got some on my phone, but they were everywhere, even my Dad was interested in them.

Were they created from the lower layer wind, shearing the bottoms off of the clud?

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#23031 - 13/05/2008 14:15 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Weathergod Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/05/2007
Posts: 1675
Loc: Williamstown SA.
Looks like the general break is going to occur this weekend. Fingers crossed for everybody especially Helen and Roves.
GFS looks pretty tasty for fri and sat with the cut-off low, but it may change but looks good enough to me.

Looks like the BOM seem pretty confident of some widespread falls.

BOM notes:


Cumulative rainfall totals until midnight Saturday will be 20 to 40 mm south of
Elliston to Clare to Keith, 10 to 20 mm south of Eucla to Woomera to Renmark, 5
to 10 mm south of Coober Pedy and less than 5 mm further north.
smile
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#23032 - 14/05/2008 03:40 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3585
Loc: Adelaide
TE commented "Hope someone can get some shots of the rather interesting high-based 'virga' clouds out there atm..."
Rats - I didn't turn on computer till about 11am - red above comment - outside with camera - saw only this virga in the far NNE sky somewhere up near Helen's place I would guess - 12 times optical zoom.

SAsurfa asked "Were they created from the lower layer wind, shearing the bottoms off of the clud?" - this one I photod looks like its a result of convective development of a small "cumulus" at an unusually high level in the atmosphere, with precipitation evaporating as it fell. Not sure whether it would have been ice crystals or water droplets at that height.
Might be a "dry run" of what is to come at lower levels smile .

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#23033 - 14/05/2008 06:03 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
bd bucketingdown Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 6033
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Briefing thread started for this massive cut-off low system and one could almost start the actual report thread by later today!

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#23034 - 14/05/2008 07:56 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Dave (Strike3) Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/09/2005
Posts: 1748
Loc: Woodville South, Adelaide, SA
Yeah did notice that on the way to work... here's a phone pic of it...


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#23035 - 14/05/2008 08:04 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Unstable Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/01/2007
Posts: 3585
Loc: Adelaide
Oh yes beautiful Dave cool - I was feeling a bit remiss because I was out early yesterday morn and apparently didn't look at the sky :nerd: - I feel better now! smile
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Email: weather at internode.on.net

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#23036 - 14/05/2008 09:12 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
SAsurfa Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/10/2005
Posts: 576
Loc: Adelaide
Great photo Dave, similar to what I have on my phone camera but I can't find the cable to hook it up to the computer :rolleyes:

And thanks for the explanation Unstable

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#23037 - 14/05/2008 11:00 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17523
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Yep great photo there... exactly what I saw on my way to work.... thanks Dave..
There were a couple of pics up on Ch 10 weather last night as well....

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#23038 - 14/05/2008 14:57 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14866
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Very nice. Classic case of Altocumulus with ice crystal virga.

TS cool

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#23039 - 15/05/2008 14:45 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9644
Loc: Mid North, SA
Some more news from Tim in New Zealand. They've seen the glaciers and are still heading in a southerly direction.

Here's a scene he sent of Mount Tasman and Mount Cook (on the South Island for those that are unaware). Stunning!!! cool



...only 110 days to go before we do the same trip. laugh
_________________________
2017 YTD - 67.8mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - 32.8mm (10mm) / Feb - 35.0mm (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)
Total 2016 - 637.2mm



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#23040 - 19/05/2008 23:37 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Paul (Stargazer) Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/05/2003
Posts: 1262
Loc: Salisbury North, SA
Interesting forecast atm here for tomorrow by AccuWeather.com

Tuesday Day
Periods of rain in the morning followed by showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night
Rainy


Fingers x'ed! laugh
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Regs, Paul.
(Stargazer)
Weather Station
Wunderground

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#23041 - 21/05/2008 19:41 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9644
Loc: Mid North, SA
Okay, so I know it's waaaay off topic, but I became a Nana today.

Caleb Scott, 9lb 1oz born at 1:18pm by caesarian section... mother and baby doing well.

First pic.
_________________________
2017 YTD - 67.8mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - 32.8mm (10mm) / Feb - 35.0mm (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)
Total 2016 - 637.2mm



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#23042 - 21/05/2008 19:59 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting
Dane Offline
Member

Registered: 17/11/2002
Posts: 426
Loc: Cranbourne
Congratulations. Pretty baby :cheers:

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