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#246099 - 10/01/2003 09:04 Swell?
temp trace Offline
Member

Registered: 03/02/2001
Posts: 457
Loc: Newcastle, NSW
So how big is it going to get?

As Craig has already stated this system has the potential to develop so reasonable solid swell over the next few days.

Just got back from the beach and its settled down a lot from yesterday currently 4 to 5 feet with occasional 6 to 7 foot sets pushing through. Manly hydro. has Sydney at 3m with a 9sec period.

Quickscat has seen sswind of 25/30kt for the past 12/18 hours. Laps is prog. 25 to 30kts over the 24 hours so I reckon the BOM of 3 to 4m might not be to far off the mark.

Interestingly the EC is still trying to move the low back towards the coast over the next few days. NOGAPS has really lost the plot with this whole event but is just starting to come into line with the rest of the models and is calling 12 to 15' for the north coast over the weekend.

So a gradual increase in swell over the weekend with solid 2.5m sets by Sunday for the central coast region?

Comments.

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#246100 - 10/01/2003 15:22 Re: Swell?
pingtang Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 18/11/2001
Posts: 5525
Loc: Nowra, NSW
Hello Temp Trace.

I was out surfing this morning,and it has dropped quite a bit from yesterday.Yesterday morning was awsome with westerly winds,and a clean 2-3metre+ SE swell.The swell has dropped out to sea,and so has the period.As you have mentioned,its only 3 metres now with a period of 8-9seconds.
It was only head height on open beaches down here,however because of the S winds I had to stick to a southern corner.Because of the period,not alot of swell was getting into southern corners.
Down here I think it will continue to drop during today and tomorrow,however I think there could be an E swell building on Sunday and into monday.

It could be different on the Central coast.You will probrably get more swell than us,atleast over the next few days.Unfortunatly for the both of us,the winds will be far from favourable.Fresh to strong SE winds are predicted for the next few days.Horrible.I wonder what Craig Arthur thinks.

:cheers:
_________________________
RAIN YTD-
34mms

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#246101 - 10/01/2003 16:42 Re: Swell?
Craig Arthur Offline
Wind hazard researcher

Registered: 08/05/2001
Posts: 3549
Loc: 149.152009°E 35.187056°...
Looks like this is now settling into a blocking pattern with a low in the northern Tasman and a high at around 45°S. I'd expect a fairly solid easterly swell setting up over the next week, around 3-4m seems most likely, but it really depends on what the low/high pair do. If (as GASP is indicating) the low heads towards the coast, it'll swing more northeasterly and build. With the winds settling into an southeasterly, I think anywhere protected from that SE'ly will be decent. I don't know too much about the beaches along th coast, but a quick glance at the map makes me think just north of Jervis Bay/south of Culburra may be ok, maybe also just north of Bellambi Point, but that's exposed to the ENE swell...

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#246102 - 10/01/2003 18:38 Re: Swell?
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Haven't had much of a chance to look at things on the East Coast lately (got myself a new job!), but GFS has a nice fetch establishing itself over the weekend. It seems the swell will be initially quite SSE, with GFS progging a broad area of winds in the 25-30kts category. Due to the proximity of the coast, I'd expect a fairly quick response, with some solid surf in the 6' category appearing along the Central Coast through to the North Coast during Saturday. The locations south of Sydney don't look to be quite in the swell window until Sunday/Monday, and as such will probably be a little smaller until earlier in the week.

GFS is also quite keen on a more ESE flow through Monday and Tuesday, and it's source is located a little more offshore which should help with surf quality (via groundswell period and local winds strength). This should ensure we get a good 4-5 days of quality surf right along the eastern seaboard.

All in all, a really nice summer swell is on the cards! I don't think the swell direction will be as detrimental to southern corners as some of the southerly swells we saw last year, so find somewhere out of the wind and enjoy!

I'm relaxing after two epic swells within a week here in SA... check here for more info smile

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#246103 - 10/01/2003 21:45 Re: Swell?
pingtang Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 18/11/2001
Posts: 5525
Loc: Nowra, NSW
Quote:
Originally posted by Craig Arthur:
. I don't know too much about the beaches along the coast, but a quick glance at the map makes me think just north of Jervis Bay/south of Culburra may be ok
Hello Craig,

You are completely right there.The place you are talking about is Currarong.I was there Wednesday afternoon when the southerly buster came through.
It is offshore in SW-SE winds.Unfortunatly the headland blocks a huge amount of swell.Forget about south swells there unless its 6metres out to sea.Even E swells get blocked out quite a bit.
Great wave though.One of the only places thats offshore in a SE'er.Another place that could be OK,is the Boneyard at Kiama.That too is offshore in SE winds.

I am expecting some size tomorrow,but only on open beaches.I am pretty sure that it will be small in southern corners.
I am expecting an increase on Sunday into Monday.
Easterly winds should be blowing over a long fetch out to sea,thanks to the low up north and the high down south.A solid E or ENE swell should be the result.I am hoping to get some good waves. smile

:cheers:
_________________________
RAIN YTD-
34mms

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#246104 - 11/01/2003 10:09 Re: Swell?
temp trace Offline
Member

Registered: 03/02/2001
Posts: 457
Loc: Newcastle, NSW
G'day PT, Craig and all

Well what a magnificent day we have to day

Fresh to strong SE'ers and 4 to 5' of swell
surf pic

Latest quickscat is showing a broad area of 25/30kt SE'ers between here and NZ.

Sydney hydro 2m at 7sec.

US,UK and GASP have the low weakening by Monday arvo with the EC still sticking with its westward movement.

We've got the latest round of the ironman happening here today so a little more swell could make for interesting viewing. laugh

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#246105 - 11/01/2003 12:57 Re: Swell?
pingtang Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 18/11/2001
Posts: 5525
Loc: Nowra, NSW
Hello temp trace,

The Jervis Bay buoy is recording a 7-11FT SE swell,with a 7 second interval.
The swell is there but I want that interval to creep up to 10-12seconds.
Its about head high + on south facing beaches,and waist to shoulder high in southern corners.
To my suprise,the wind swung to the SW this morning at about 10AM.Its still SSW at Kiama and Wollongong.
_________________________
RAIN YTD-
34mms

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#246106 - 13/01/2003 22:29 Re: Swell?
pingtang Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 18/11/2001
Posts: 5525
Loc: Nowra, NSW
Hmmm,theres not heaps of swell about.I thought there would have been more than this.

Today it was 2-3 metres at sea from the east.Period was about 9 seconds.Most beaches had some 2 metre sets.

I went out this morning.The winds were westerly early on,however there was alot of surface bump thanks to yesterdays onshores.The onshore was back into it by 9AM.Hopefully tomorrow morning will have early offshores,but im not holding my breath.

This weather pattern should continue for a while longer.Because of this im expecting swell all week.Quality will be suss though thanks to the winds.It will probrably be 1-2metres until the weekend,with SE to NE winds.I would probrably expect more size on the Central and North Coasts.

:cheers:
_________________________
RAIN YTD-
34mms

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