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#246322 - 28/08/2002 11:16 Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Alex Zadnik Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2001
Posts: 152
Loc: VIC
All computer models are indicating a pretty significant low in the Southern Ocean that is worth having a look at! NOGAPS wave model looks impressive, as does Mondays 12z GASP. It should generate a pretty BIG swell (15ft++), and affect much of the WA west coast (probabaly late in the weekend, or early next week). This swell should propogate to Indo later next week, and maintain some considerable size.
Book your plane tickets..............

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#246323 - 28/08/2002 11:29 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Hi Alex

I noticed that too smile Direction is primo for most of Indo, and I imagine they'll get four to six days of pumping groundswell out of it...atleast..

Just having a quick check of the models, the Margaret River area seems to be on the fringe of the main swell projection (but by no means will they miss out!), however NOGAPS and MRF are going for another followup of strong winds behind the intial low (perhaps a secondary low? NOGAPS is going with this idea) which looks a little more intense, and will certainly deliver some very large surf to this area. Either way it's going to be yet another large swell event for this area...perhaps one in contention for the 'Big Wave Challenge'...

Pity I am so busy at the moment - I really wouldn't mind watching this event a little more closely. I've also got a few new 'swell tools' that I'm eager to try out too.

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#246324 - 28/08/2002 21:27 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
pingtang Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 18/11/2001
Posts: 5525
Loc: Nowra, NSW
The 4 day weather forcast indicates that a 948low will be situated under Australia at a latitude of about 50'S.This will make the surf huge,and Western Australia is in its path.As the low moves eastwards it will probrably dip,but Victoria should get some significant swell,later next week from it.
_________________________
RAIN YTD-
34mms

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#246325 - 29/08/2002 11:41 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Alex Zadnik Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2001
Posts: 152
Loc: VIC
Latest NOGAPS Total Waves (120 hr) looks extremely impressive in terms of swell. 36ft+ significant wave heights hitting Margaret River. Winds look like being pretty unfavourable though. It would still be pretty impressive to look at.

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#246326 - 29/08/2002 12:27 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15023
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Wind will prob make a mess of it, but as Alex said, should be a treat to watch. Should be soem decent waves making their presence felt along the SA coast although its hard to get around KI, but Waits should be onto 8 maybe 10ft who knows.....and the Coorong coastline will see soem nice waves too..near Robe should be nice.

TS cool

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#246327 - 01/09/2002 13:33 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Well it's already started in WA. Surf size reported as 15'-18' (SROsurf) and 18'-22' (Surfalert). It's a shame such a large swell event is again associated with strong local winds, however in such a large swell there will invariably be some locations come to life that don't regularly see surf.

It will be very interesting for SA too - there are some impressive setups forecast for the latter part of this week. As always, they will be monitored closely on Swellnet (updated Monday lunchtime).

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#246328 - 02/09/2002 09:30 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Alex Zadnik Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2001
Posts: 152
Loc: VIC
Today's report from http://www.srosurf.com/index.shtml
Quote: "Mmmm, how can you put a size on something that is ridiculously large."
PERTH
WIND: W/SW @ 25 - 35 knots stronger in squalls.
Very, very big swell hitting and eating away at the coast this morning. The wind combined with the swell is changing the shape of the Metro coastline including some of the dunal system.
Way out of control swell with waves resembling the inside of your washing machine on the spin cycle.
HEAD high plus and nearly that again at some locations, but totally unsurfable.
Tomorrow is looking heaps better with winds moderating into the SW allowing you to get into a few in the protected more sheltered breaks.

WIND: Marzs Rating: 0 out of 10.

MARGARET RIVER
WIND: W @ 28 - 40 knots stronger in squalls.
Mmmm, how can you put a size on something that is ridiculously large.
Mainbreak is very monstrous at the moment with foam ball lines marching in and crumbling from way out to sea.
Every now and then closeouts are happening right through to the box.
A solid 16 to 18 foot plus or face size 20 to 25 feet and even bigger.
Waves will stand up even more once the wind swings SW.
No where to surf today with even some of the Bays and Points closing out.
The other side is producing some ride able waves with some of the local crew already on it.

WIND: Marzs Rating: 0 out of 10.

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#246329 - 02/09/2002 09:35 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Alex Zadnik Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2001
Posts: 152
Loc: VIC
Cape Naturaliste Bouy has a significant wave heigh of 8m, and it appears to still be on the way up!
see www.coastaldata.transport.wa.gov.au/tides/real_time_comparison.html

Are you starting to get a little nervous Ben, with SA set to get some big stuff?! wink

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#246330 - 02/09/2002 09:43 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Nervous? he he laugh There's always a protected cove somewhere if it gets too big wink ....infact I have my eye on a few places that rarely get waves - I mean, just look at the SA coastline - there's more twists and turns than any other state! Perfect for refracting large swell into the path of more favourable winds.

It's still the calm before the storm here though. Sunny and light N winds, and flat surf everywhere.

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#246331 - 02/09/2002 11:56 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15023
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Pretty flat out there but getting rather choppy. Should really dire later tonight and more so tomorrow one that front has goen thru. Im free next wed, Ben where do u feel the best spot wil be then? South or Mid?

TS cool

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#246332 - 02/09/2002 12:53 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Hi Lennie

Just updated Swellnet - there'll be surf all week. Thursday morning looks to be the 'cleanest' option, apart from that I'd be content with waves along the metro beaches!

Cheers, Ben

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#246333 - 03/09/2002 10:46 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15023
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well well well, take ur pick with the lucky dip any day will just about do, although wednesday im free, and saturday im free smile and to hear that Bullies will be 5-8ft on sat eek I woulsdnt miss it for my life. Metro beaches also look good u say, the mid as well. I might go for 3 poles on wednesday and then up to the metro beaches like Gelenlg or grange, then on saturday if I can, (hope hope) then il go to Bullies early on, then Petrol Cove just to see whats there and then back up to 3-poles later in the day. I just hope nothing crops up b4 then.

TS cool

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#246334 - 04/09/2002 08:37 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
The KI wavebuoy is now consistently reading 6m significant height, with peak sizes up to 11m; peak period is steady at 15 seconds (read: big and powerful). The surf has jumped dramatically on the South Coast overnight (as forecast! smile ), with Middleton around 4ft+ and this will build solidly throughout the day up to around 5-8ft by the evening.

The winds seem to have eased slightly overnight, and are from the WNW between 10 and 15kts so conditions are much more favourable than expected.

The Mid Coast is still bumpy and onshore with surf around 4ft or so. However it's pushing surf around shoulder high into the metro beaches which will be beneficial to Adelaide surfers during the day.

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#246335 - 04/09/2002 12:50 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15023
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Right Ben im leaving shortly sounds too good to miss. Ill head down to Seaford (not too far from uni). Shoulder high at metro beaches eek must be pretty rough out there thats for sure!!

TS cool

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#246336 - 04/09/2002 12:53 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Been watching it all morning - Middleton's pushing 5-6' on the sets now, Bullies has plenty of waves around 5-6' (but will need the afternoon's outgoing tide to work properly - it's high tide at the moment) and Seaford looks to be a couple of feet overhead on the big sets.

The Mid Coast has considerably lighter winds too - only 10-15kts NW while most other coastal regions are experiencing speeds around 17-25kts or so....best to make the most of it while you can!

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#246337 - 04/09/2002 13:26 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15023
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Cool im glad im heading off to Seaford. Just gotta type up this assignment and ill be off...prob by 1:30pm laugh laugh

TS cool

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#246338 - 05/09/2002 12:59 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15023
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Wasnt too bad yesterday arvo...I got a good hour out of it..caught some pretty solid 4' waves at Seaford, but was a bit breezy at times but still conditions were better than the previos day.....things are looking fantastic today espeically down south b4 that next lot of wind comes thru. Ill try my best to get to Bullies on sat.....hope things pan out till then smile

TS cool

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#246339 - 05/09/2002 16:38 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Rainlover Offline
Member

Registered: 12/02/2002
Posts: 4421
What is surf like on the W coast on tassie, I'd imagine big waves, but too scrappy cause of the wind?

Thermalben, when u measure wave height, do you do it from sea level to the peak of the wave or from trough to peak?

Rainlover laugh

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#246340 - 06/09/2002 10:19 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15023
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Id always thought waves were measured from sea level to the peak..but could be wrong..

TS cool

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#246341 - 06/09/2002 10:27 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Craig Arthur Offline
Wind hazard researcher

Registered: 08/05/2001
Posts: 3549
Loc: 149.152009°E 35.187056°...
From memory sea (or swell for that matter) waves are measured from the middle of the wave to the peak, so really only 'half' the wave height when you look at it. From a physics view point this would be correct - look up the word 'amplitude' in a physics or mathematics textbook.

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#246342 - 06/09/2002 11:38 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Hi all

It depends what we're measuring here... if it's oceanic conditions (ie a typical scenario of a recording wave buoy), I'm sure it's trough to crest.

However I presume RL is talking about surf at the beach (as this is the theme of the thread), and in this case it's quite a debatable matter. Surfers (well, some anyway) have enormous egos to maintain, and as a result wave height is usually understated significantly - waves that I'd call 6' would be 2' in Hawaii (the islands are a well documented location on this 'phenomena' wink ).

Have a look at this survey conducted by Realsurf this year - show's a pretty wide variety of opinions for surf size for a wave that I'd personally call 8' (seems to be the majority's opinion too).

It's incredibly hard to estimate surf size unless you are a regular water user - a wave that is technically 1' (ie 30cm) would rarely break on most surf beaches - probably just lap up along the shore. So surfers have loosely developed relative scales that are known throughout surfing circles. It's just one of those weird things (surfing magazines are a classic example - you'll be hard pressed to find a photo in a mag with a descriptive surf size attached - no-one wants to make the call!).

The large US surf forecasting company Surfline has this table:

1' = ankle high
2' = knee high
3' = waist high
3'+ = chest high
4' = shoulder high
5' = head high (remember the slight crouch, no one rides waves standing straight up and down)
6' = overhead
10' = double overhead
15' = triple overhead

I'm not in favour of this system - at the top of this scale; can you ride a knee high wave? Not really (it's pretty hard to get much enjoyment out of such a small wave), so 2' seems a little overstated.... that's just my personal opinion.

How big would you put this wave?



I know how big it is - because it's me! I'd personally call this wave around 5', although I've had comments that it's 6-8'. However due to the angle of the picture and my body angle it's a little distorted in size (another important thing to consider when looking at the surf - looking at waves from above, say on a high cliff, tends to make them appear bigger). If you straightened up my body in this picture, the wave would be a foot or two overhead. That's around 5' or so (surfing height) in my books.

Anyway the most important factor to note with surf forecasting/reporting is the overall trend. Sure, you might disagree with my estimations - I've got no problem with that. However if I'm calling 4-5' today and 8-10' tomorrow, look out! There's probably a large swell event approaching smile

Anyway hope I haven't confused this matter further!

Ben

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#246343 - 06/09/2002 11:58 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
temp trace Offline
Member

Registered: 03/02/2001
Posts: 457
Loc: Newcastle, NSW
Ahaaaaaaa!! no not this again eek We had a topic on size (wave size that is) on the Surfcam BB got a bit heated at times laugh (in the end it had to be deleted to cool things down a bit)

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#246344 - 06/09/2002 12:03 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15023
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Hell.....I mean the wave would feel like a 10ft wave but as u say due to the way they measure it its a 5ft. Where was that pic taken?? U seem to be pretty darn good at it judging that picture...is that on the Mid Coast by any chance or is it further west?

The waves I caught on wednesday wernt that large but were still breaking just the same...i would have put them at 3to 4ft. CANT WAIT till sat down at Bullies.....its gunna be big...the biggest wave I have caught (and Im more of a bodyboarder) is about 8ft...and I just escaped a painful death at Knights on the rocks...so im hoping to get out of these 8ft waves on sat no probs. Love those barrels! laugh

TS cool

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#246345 - 06/09/2002 12:12 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
I know what you mean TT. I think everyone has to agree to disagree smile It will never be able to be resolved properly IMO.

The other method I like to employ is 'head high', 'overhead', 'double overhead' (or as in the case for the East Coast lately 'well below expectations' laugh he he

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#246346 - 06/09/2002 12:26 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15023
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Heya Ben, just read ur surf forecast and ur saying that sunday will be the best day.....and sat wont be as clean? ur a legend man! Luckily I can change it to go on sunday and then ill have to do all my uni work on sat. Sunday light offshore winds and 6ft at Middleton and up to 8ft at Bullies eek thats the pick of the year id say!

TS cool

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#246347 - 06/09/2002 12:34 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Quote:
Thunderstruck:
Sunday...6ft at Middleton and up to 8ft at Bullies ... thats the pick of the year id say!
Hey Lennie - thanks for the nice words.
In actual fact yesterday morning produced 6' surf at Bullies with possible 8' sets...but it's still a little shy of the Queen's B'day holiday which was even bigger...

Basically for this weekend the swell is on the increase throughout Saturday, but the passage of a cold front tonight will create bumpy conditions. There's not many places that are protected from a SW wind along the South Coast, but as the wind is going to tend NW again on Sunday preceding another front for early Monday, we will hopefully see the peak of the swell coinciding with great surfing weather.

There should be waves just about everywhere! I'm going for an extended, erm, 'drive' on Sunday...hopefully scoring a pot o' gold at the end of the rainbow...

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#246348 - 06/09/2002 12:49 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
temp trace Offline
Member

Registered: 03/02/2001
Posts: 457
Loc: Newcastle, NSW
Quote:
Originally posted by thermalben:
(or as in the case for the East Coast lately 'well below expectations' laugh he he
No need to rub it in is there!! :p

Been tragic over here for the last week or so and having a look at the charts nothing to get to excited about for the weekend (its nough to make you cry all these offshores going to waste) even had the 10'2" mal out yesterday in a vain attempt to surf the wake of a passing tanker laugh

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#246349 - 08/09/2002 20:39 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15023
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
WHAT A DAY!!!! Firstly, Ben ur a legend for forecasting this event..it was as good as u said it would be :cheers: laugh laugh secondly, it was miserable in Adelaide with a fresh NW wind but was very nice down on he south coast. There was a fair bit of cloud around but they wasnt a great deal of wind and Bullies was bliss!!!! HUGE barrels pretty frequnt as well and I caught a fair few 5-7ft waves.....couldnt say if it was 8foot but well over my head thats for sure. Didnt have any injuries this tiem thank god so all was good laugh gotta do that again..Ben any more good surf around?

TS cool

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#246350 - 09/09/2002 10:30 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Nice to hear Lennie smile I wasn't in the Victor region yesterday, so I couldn't confirm personally (although I've spoken to many people since though who have said similar things).

In actualy fact I went hunting for a few of the state's 'lesser known' spots yesterday, around 6 hours drive away - leaving around 1am straight after a gig in town Saturday night, then surfing all day until the wind picked up. Then we packed up and drove home late in the afternon getting home at 11am. I am exhausted!

I am just doing a Swellnet forecast this morning, however there's nothing 'epic' in the pipeline at this stage (size wise, anyway). But from Wed onwards we should see some more favourable weather conditions along the South Coast - these cruddy moderate SW winds don't do much for most locations!

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