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#246322 - 28/08/2002 11:16 Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Alex Zadnik Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2001
Posts: 152
Loc: VIC
All computer models are indicating a pretty significant low in the Southern Ocean that is worth having a look at! NOGAPS wave model looks impressive, as does Mondays 12z GASP. It should generate a pretty BIG swell (15ft++), and affect much of the WA west coast (probabaly late in the weekend, or early next week). This swell should propogate to Indo later next week, and maintain some considerable size.
Book your plane tickets..............

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#246323 - 28/08/2002 11:29 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Hi Alex

I noticed that too smile Direction is primo for most of Indo, and I imagine they'll get four to six days of pumping groundswell out of it...atleast..

Just having a quick check of the models, the Margaret River area seems to be on the fringe of the main swell projection (but by no means will they miss out!), however NOGAPS and MRF are going for another followup of strong winds behind the intial low (perhaps a secondary low? NOGAPS is going with this idea) which looks a little more intense, and will certainly deliver some very large surf to this area. Either way it's going to be yet another large swell event for this area...perhaps one in contention for the 'Big Wave Challenge'...

Pity I am so busy at the moment - I really wouldn't mind watching this event a little more closely. I've also got a few new 'swell tools' that I'm eager to try out too.

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#246324 - 28/08/2002 21:27 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
pingtang Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 18/11/2001
Posts: 5525
Loc: Nowra, NSW
The 4 day weather forcast indicates that a 948low will be situated under Australia at a latitude of about 50'S.This will make the surf huge,and Western Australia is in its path.As the low moves eastwards it will probrably dip,but Victoria should get some significant swell,later next week from it.
_________________________
RAIN YTD-
34mms

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#246325 - 29/08/2002 11:41 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Alex Zadnik Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2001
Posts: 152
Loc: VIC
Latest NOGAPS Total Waves (120 hr) looks extremely impressive in terms of swell. 36ft+ significant wave heights hitting Margaret River. Winds look like being pretty unfavourable though. It would still be pretty impressive to look at.

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#246326 - 29/08/2002 12:27 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Wind will prob make a mess of it, but as Alex said, should be a treat to watch. Should be soem decent waves making their presence felt along the SA coast although its hard to get around KI, but Waits should be onto 8 maybe 10ft who knows.....and the Coorong coastline will see soem nice waves too..near Robe should be nice.

TS cool

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#246327 - 01/09/2002 13:33 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Well it's already started in WA. Surf size reported as 15'-18' (SROsurf) and 18'-22' (Surfalert). It's a shame such a large swell event is again associated with strong local winds, however in such a large swell there will invariably be some locations come to life that don't regularly see surf.

It will be very interesting for SA too - there are some impressive setups forecast for the latter part of this week. As always, they will be monitored closely on Swellnet (updated Monday lunchtime).

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#246328 - 02/09/2002 09:30 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Alex Zadnik Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2001
Posts: 152
Loc: VIC
Today's report from http://www.srosurf.com/index.shtml
Quote: "Mmmm, how can you put a size on something that is ridiculously large."
PERTH
WIND: W/SW @ 25 - 35 knots stronger in squalls.
Very, very big swell hitting and eating away at the coast this morning. The wind combined with the swell is changing the shape of the Metro coastline including some of the dunal system.
Way out of control swell with waves resembling the inside of your washing machine on the spin cycle.
HEAD high plus and nearly that again at some locations, but totally unsurfable.
Tomorrow is looking heaps better with winds moderating into the SW allowing you to get into a few in the protected more sheltered breaks.

WIND: Marzs Rating: 0 out of 10.

MARGARET RIVER
WIND: W @ 28 - 40 knots stronger in squalls.
Mmmm, how can you put a size on something that is ridiculously large.
Mainbreak is very monstrous at the moment with foam ball lines marching in and crumbling from way out to sea.
Every now and then closeouts are happening right through to the box.
A solid 16 to 18 foot plus or face size 20 to 25 feet and even bigger.
Waves will stand up even more once the wind swings SW.
No where to surf today with even some of the Bays and Points closing out.
The other side is producing some ride able waves with some of the local crew already on it.

WIND: Marzs Rating: 0 out of 10.

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#246329 - 02/09/2002 09:35 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Alex Zadnik Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2001
Posts: 152
Loc: VIC
Cape Naturaliste Bouy has a significant wave heigh of 8m, and it appears to still be on the way up!
see www.coastaldata.transport.wa.gov.au/tides/real_time_comparison.html

Are you starting to get a little nervous Ben, with SA set to get some big stuff?! wink

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#246330 - 02/09/2002 09:43 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Nervous? he he laugh There's always a protected cove somewhere if it gets too big wink ....infact I have my eye on a few places that rarely get waves - I mean, just look at the SA coastline - there's more twists and turns than any other state! Perfect for refracting large swell into the path of more favourable winds.

It's still the calm before the storm here though. Sunny and light N winds, and flat surf everywhere.

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#246331 - 02/09/2002 11:56 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Pretty flat out there but getting rather choppy. Should really dire later tonight and more so tomorrow one that front has goen thru. Im free next wed, Ben where do u feel the best spot wil be then? South or Mid?

TS cool

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#246332 - 02/09/2002 12:53 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Hi Lennie

Just updated Swellnet - there'll be surf all week. Thursday morning looks to be the 'cleanest' option, apart from that I'd be content with waves along the metro beaches!

Cheers, Ben

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#246333 - 03/09/2002 10:46 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well well well, take ur pick with the lucky dip any day will just about do, although wednesday im free, and saturday im free smile and to hear that Bullies will be 5-8ft on sat eek I woulsdnt miss it for my life. Metro beaches also look good u say, the mid as well. I might go for 3 poles on wednesday and then up to the metro beaches like Gelenlg or grange, then on saturday if I can, (hope hope) then il go to Bullies early on, then Petrol Cove just to see whats there and then back up to 3-poles later in the day. I just hope nothing crops up b4 then.

TS cool

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#246334 - 04/09/2002 08:37 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
The KI wavebuoy is now consistently reading 6m significant height, with peak sizes up to 11m; peak period is steady at 15 seconds (read: big and powerful). The surf has jumped dramatically on the South Coast overnight (as forecast! smile ), with Middleton around 4ft+ and this will build solidly throughout the day up to around 5-8ft by the evening.

The winds seem to have eased slightly overnight, and are from the WNW between 10 and 15kts so conditions are much more favourable than expected.

The Mid Coast is still bumpy and onshore with surf around 4ft or so. However it's pushing surf around shoulder high into the metro beaches which will be beneficial to Adelaide surfers during the day.

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#246335 - 04/09/2002 12:50 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Right Ben im leaving shortly sounds too good to miss. Ill head down to Seaford (not too far from uni). Shoulder high at metro beaches eek must be pretty rough out there thats for sure!!

TS cool

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#246336 - 04/09/2002 12:53 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Been watching it all morning - Middleton's pushing 5-6' on the sets now, Bullies has plenty of waves around 5-6' (but will need the afternoon's outgoing tide to work properly - it's high tide at the moment) and Seaford looks to be a couple of feet overhead on the big sets.

The Mid Coast has considerably lighter winds too - only 10-15kts NW while most other coastal regions are experiencing speeds around 17-25kts or so....best to make the most of it while you can!

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#246337 - 04/09/2002 13:26 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Cool im glad im heading off to Seaford. Just gotta type up this assignment and ill be off...prob by 1:30pm laugh laugh

TS cool

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#246338 - 05/09/2002 12:59 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Wasnt too bad yesterday arvo...I got a good hour out of it..caught some pretty solid 4' waves at Seaford, but was a bit breezy at times but still conditions were better than the previos day.....things are looking fantastic today espeically down south b4 that next lot of wind comes thru. Ill try my best to get to Bullies on sat.....hope things pan out till then smile

TS cool

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#246339 - 05/09/2002 16:38 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Rainlover Offline
Member

Registered: 12/02/2002
Posts: 4421
What is surf like on the W coast on tassie, I'd imagine big waves, but too scrappy cause of the wind?

Thermalben, when u measure wave height, do you do it from sea level to the peak of the wave or from trough to peak?

Rainlover laugh

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#246340 - 06/09/2002 10:19 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15024
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Id always thought waves were measured from sea level to the peak..but could be wrong..

TS cool

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#246341 - 06/09/2002 10:27 Re: Big Monday - WA, then Indo later
Craig Arthur Offline
Wind hazard researcher

Registered: 08/05/2001
Posts: 3549
Loc: 149.152009°E 35.187056°...
From memory sea (or swell for that matter) waves are measured from the middle of the wave to the peak, so really only 'half' the wave height when you look at it. From a physics view point this would be correct - look up the word 'amplitude' in a physics or mathematics textbook.

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