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#246586 - 28/11/2004 15:21 Re: Bass Strait swell conditions
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
For the record, Saturday was barely 1-2' on the East Coast's open beaches (and flat elsewhere), and it was even smaller this morning.

The Cape Sorell buoy eased from 1m Hsig (midnight Fri) to 0.5m (midnight Sat), so I have no idea where the BOM's 2-3m waves and 2m swell forecast came from - I'm pretty sure that their marine forecasts are primarily based on whatever the MLAPS WAM conjures up, but I had a quick glance on Friday after posting my previous comment, and it didn't suggest anything in this size range at all.

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#246587 - 29/11/2004 17:49 Re: Bass Strait swell conditions
Ripley Offline
Member

Registered: 26/07/2004
Posts: 190
Loc: South Australia
Spent the weekend in the Warnambool area and the surf there was almost non-existant. Best wave we saw was at Beachport down the South East and a small shorebreak near Nelson on the SA-Vic border

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#246588 - 13/12/2004 08:56 Re: Bass Strait swell conditions
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
and again.. the BOM are calling for a 2m swell in northern Bass Strait tomorrow:
Quote:
Seas 2 to 3 metres abating to around 2 metres later. Southwest swell near 2 metres
The surf will be unlikely to crack much more than 2-3' of short-period junky stuff on the East Coast's open beaches, and it is expected to remain small to flat in Torquay (perhaps some small windswell later).

Additionally, their forecast last Thursday night (for Friday) was:
Quote:
East to southeast swell 1 to 2 metres
when in actual fact a long-range WSW swell (Tp over 18secs) delivered excellent 5-6'+ surf at Portsea and Gunnamatta during the day.

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#246589 - 14/12/2004 21:26 Re: Bass Strait swell conditions
Alex Zadnik Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2001
Posts: 152
Loc: VIC
Hey Ben,
Just on the Thursday night forecast by the BOM, although the bulk of the swell was from the W/SW there was definitely a detectable underlying SE swell when I surfed Portsea. Also, on the height I don't thing the were to far wrong. It was 3-4ft for the most part with only the very rare 5footer. And that is being generous. A mate told me surfshop were reporting 6ft at Portsea on Saturday which was laughable.
So I guess they weren't totally accurate, but it wasn't as bad as some of their others!! wink
Cheers,
Alex
PS Still waiting on photos of the big swell some weeks ago, I'll try and get my hands on them soon....

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#246590 - 14/12/2004 22:17 Re: Bass Strait swell conditions
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
hey Alex

Ahh.. fair 'nough - the surfshop morning report was 5-6' or so, and buoy data increased in strength during the day so I assumed it peaked just above this. Reports from the previous few days has also noted the SE swell - so I was aware of its presence - but I suppose I was pointing out that the BOM missed a long period SW swell completely (Tp of 18 seconds isn't an everyday occurence in December).

As for today, there is no groundswell whatsoever - Cape Sorell didn't move until around 3pm (of which is was all local swell), but a locally strong onshore flow has kicked up some windswell along the Vicco coast - Tp up to a whopping 7 seconds at Pt Nepean!!

Can't wait to see those photos too smile

Ben

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#246591 - 03/01/2005 15:25 Re: Bass Strait swell conditions
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
I'm really puzzled by this one for Northern Bass Strait:
Quote:
Southwest swell to 1.5 metres, shifting easterly and rising to 3 metres
A 3m easterly swell? 3m is the 'upper end' of their forecast spectrum.. but only with SW swell events. I can't fathom how they came to this figure, as the SE/NE airstream is only expected to be up for 18-24 hours or so (not enough time to generate a 3m 'swell'.. and only at 15-25kts).

Additionally, the other regions are listed as such:
Western: "Southwest swell 1.5 to 2.5 metres. Easterly swell to 1 metre"
Eastern: "Seas 2 to 3 metres abating to 1 to 2 metres later. Southeast swell 1 to 2 metres"
Southern: "Seas 1 to 2 metres rising to 2 to 3 metres in the west. Westerly swell to 1.5 metres"

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#246592 - 12/04/2005 16:15 Re: Bass Strait swell conditions
Alex Zadnik Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2001
Posts: 152
Loc: VIC
Another undercall by the VRO.......

Northern Bass Strait:
Tuesday until midnight: Variable winds 5/10 knots tending east/northeasterly at 10/15 knots at night. Afternoon inshore seabreezes to 10 knots. Seas around 1 metre. West to southwest swell around 1 metre increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres in the west later.

Significant wave heights are up to 3m on the Point nepean wave buoy (which is not in the west of the above region). So the Bureau error here is pretty large.

Forecasts out of TAS were much closer to the mark.
SOUTHWEST COAST, South East Cape to Low Rocky Pt:
Tuesday until midnight: Westerly winds 15 to 25 knots, easing to 5 to 15 knots during the day then becoming variable. Seas 2 to 3 metres abating. Southwest swell 4 to 5 metres.

Cape Sorrel buoy is currently at 5m with max wave heights of 9m!

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#246593 - 12/04/2005 21:11 Re: Bass Strait swell conditions
Ripley Offline
Member

Registered: 26/07/2004
Posts: 190
Loc: South Australia
By my reckoning we're in for great day of surf tomorrow down here in S.A. We had a half good wave today and as Benny said Wednesdays is going to be the pick of it. I'll still hold with my theory we're in for a great autumn and winter...mind you I feel it's going to be a cold winter this year with some of the biggest swells for quite awhile and I suggest you local Blokes/Sheila's have got the appropriate attire for the oncoming onslaught of great surf and cooler conditions...

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