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#246667 - 14/11/2004 20:31 Tuesday Surf Forecasts-VIC
Alex Zadnik Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2001
Posts: 152
Loc: VIC
Tuesday in Victoria looks like seeing a pretty huge swell push through given a stregthening system to the south with a huge amount of SW fetch. It has been interesting to note a few of the forecasts on the net that seem on the low side. Weatherzone has 5-7ft, while the weatherchannel website has a range of 1.5-1.8m(west coast to Phillip Island). Swellnet is on the money in my book with 10ft and possibly bigger forecast for the Peninsula and Island. The northern Bass Strait forecast also has a swell rising to 4m late on Monday. It seems likely that it will be easily 10-12ft on the Peninsula eearly on Tuesday, and almost 10ft at Bells given the set up of the low to the south.
So this puts the two other forecast I mentioned at arounf half the size!
I'd also suggest the rating for Monday and wednesday and Thrsday are all too low on weatherzone. As is the Wednesday forecast on the weatherchannel. Of course it is subjective but the 1/10 on Monday on wxz seems ridiculous given that there will be a heap of swell and many breaks on the west coast will be almost offshore early in the day. If Wednesday doesn't get 10/10 I don't know what would. Thursday has 4/10, despite it being offshore and there being a small to moderate sized swell.
Alex

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#246668 - 14/11/2004 20:52 Re: Tuesday Surf Forecasts-VIC
Ripley Offline
Member

Registered: 26/07/2004
Posts: 190
Loc: South Australia
Alex,
I daresay you'll be right...there'll be plenty of swell, winds look favourable for Tuesday only factor going against you mate is the dreaded arvo sea breeze...
Hope you score a few and you have the presence of mind to take a few pics so we of lessor fortune can enjoy your experience!

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#246669 - 15/11/2004 18:36 Re: Tuesday Surf Forecasts-VIC
Alex Zadnik Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2001
Posts: 152
Loc: VIC
The sea breeze may not be all bad my friend;). We'll have a camera with slide film for some a-grade pics too.
I notice no change has been made on weatherzone's height forecast for tomorrow, is their any justification for leaving it at only 5-7ft? Please explain;)
Cheers,
Alex

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#246670 - 15/11/2004 20:24 Re: Tuesday Surf Forecasts-VIC
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Coastalwatch's forecast is for "Tues, 4ft the odd 5ft set" (I'm assuming this is for Torquay and not Portsea!) - however their hit rate right around the country is pretty low - and every forecast end with "..with varying winds and strengths".

I suppose they're taking the line that it's easier to call it significantly smaller than what it will be - this way there's no chance of getting everyones hopes up.

For example, take today's national cross section:
Quote:
Qld: with varying N'therly winds and strengths
Mid NSW: with varying N winds and strenghts
Syd: with varying winds and strengths
Vic: with varying winds and strengths
SA: with varying wind strengths
WA: with strong varible winds
Can't really get a forecast like that wrong, can you?

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#246671 - 15/11/2004 20:25 Re: Tuesday Surf Forecasts-VIC
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Oh, and thanks for the vote of confidence Alex smile I can't wait to see some pics!

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#246672 - 15/11/2004 21:19 Re: Tuesday Surf Forecasts-VIC
Alex Zadnik Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2001
Posts: 152
Loc: VIC
Hey Ben, Coastal watch/weatherchannel has 1.8m for Phillip Island still. The Bureau is calling 2-3m for northern Bass Strait, which I believe is on the small side, but I've just been chatting to a mate who had a convincing argument for it being a little smaller than what you and I are calling. Namely that the LAPS swell model is forecasting this height, but also that wind strengths around the low are probably only around 30-40kts and that the satellite derived wind speeds are unreliable to a degree. I still think it will hit at least 10ft at Portsea though given the length of the fetch and the indicated gradient through the southern ocean on GFS MSLP and others. Just checking cape Sorrel data and the swell is already up to 6m(significant wave height) with maximum wave heights exceeding 10m. Cape de Couedic is reporting a 4m significant wave height and 7.5m max wave height and appears to be on an upward trend.
I'll report back tomorrow if I get a chance.
see ya,
Alex
PS Those coastal watch forecasts were very entertaining;).

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#246673 - 16/11/2004 00:36 Re: Tuesday Surf Forecasts-VIC
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Without going into too much detail, there's a couple of factors that tip me towards the upper end of the forecast size: (1) a large pre-existing swell which this fetch moved onto (Portsea was already 6-8' on Sun/Mon preceding the new pulse just pushing through now), (2) the duration of the 'captured fetch' - this band of SW winds has moved straight through the optimal part of the swell window, whereas other storms tend to pass briefly through the window on a different storm track, (3) this storm track has also opened up the possibility for a case of "Dynamic Fetch", which may further exacerbate wave heights, (4) the proximity of the fetch to Bass Strait - close enough not to lose too much size, but far away enough to allow the wavelength to draw out nicely (hence the steady upwards trend in Tp).

As far as Cape Sorell heights are concerned, 6m Hsig is just about saturation point for large swell events - we're unlikely to see much more of a sustained figure than this - but it's the period that will kick up size along the coast, of which Tz and Tp has been steadily on the increase over the last 24 hours.

CdC will see a later and less pronounced kick in size (due to the swell direction), but it's already ramping up nicely which is a great sign. S'ly winds at Victor Harbor have been below 12kts since 5pm, so we should see a morning NE'er and quick improvement in surface conditions there tomorrow. The wind is already NW in Torquay.

Re: Quikscat - well, where do you start with regards to erronous data? Everything produced over the Southern Ocean is suscpetible to unreliabilty (even MSLP charts.. they're only an 'approximation' at best, due to the lack of surface data.. and as swell charts are third generation products, this reliability is weakened even further), so it all need to be taken in context. CIMSS cloud drift winds only goes as far south as 50S, but it has picked up an impressive band of 55-60kt winds over the last 36 hours at 800-950mb between 45-50S. This has been quite reliable in the past so I'm inclined to think that Quikscat is doing pretty well with this event (I'm more suss with Quikscat in tropical applications).

Anyway, we've seen a couple of 6' days at Bells this year generated by much lesser weather systems, and at the end of the day I can only call it as I see it - there's no way I could look at the current Sorell data and say "nah, 4' for Bells tomorrow!" laugh We'll have to wait and see what the day dishes up for us.

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#246674 - 16/11/2004 08:54 Re: Tuesday Surf Forecasts-VIC
TOM1111 Offline
Member

Registered: 27/10/2004
Posts: 2789
Loc: medowie near williamtown-octob...
peninsula surf is calling 5-8ft for bells and it's looking clean aswell and portsea up to 10ft so you where pretty spot on thermalben but i hope your weekend forcast for NSW is wrong otherwise no beach again on the weekend for me

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