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#246697 - 08/08/2002 20:56 Re: Forecast swell for NSW 4th/5th/6th
temp trace Offline
Member

Registered: 03/02/2001
Posts: 457
Loc: Newcastle, NSW
Quote:
Originally posted by thermalben:
I'm watching with interest as to whether it hangs around for tomorrow.
Your not the only one smile

Latest coastal waters is going for 2/2.5m but a check this arvo and the swell has dropped a good foot since this morning.

Direction is the biggest problem (for the coast anyway) a few ship reports came in during the day with 3/3.5m of south swell 100km or so off the coast. A quick check of quickscat and you can see why.

As pingtang has already said I don't hold to much hope for the weekend so Friday could be the go fingers crossed anyway.

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#246698 - 08/08/2002 21:07 Re: Forecast swell for NSW 4th/5th/6th
pingtang Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 18/11/2001
Posts: 5525
Loc: Nowra, NSW
A moderate E/NE wind is predicted on Friday afternoon.This will hack into the swell,and reduce the prospects of a wave on Saturday.
_________________________
RAIN YTD-
34mms

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#246699 - 09/08/2002 10:02 Re: Forecast swell for NSW 4th/5th/6th
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Hmmmm...interesting! I can only vouch for the online reports, but I am reading that it's picked up again...

Reports are as such:
DeeWhy - head high sets
Manly - 1-3'
Bondi - 3'+
Bronte - chest high (Tama bigger)
QLD - 2' (but better and more consistent)

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#246700 - 09/08/2002 11:23 Re: Forecast swell for NSW 4th/5th/6th
temp trace Offline
Member

Registered: 03/02/2001
Posts: 457
Loc: Newcastle, NSW
Your right there Ben - what a difference a night makes! A good 4/5 foot with even bigger sets this morning the quality isn't much chop the banks just aren't handling the size.

Just went past on my way home awhile ago it appears that its dropped a little from earlier. So Saturday morning mightn't be put of the question just yet smile WW3 is dropping the swell slowly during the day and the meso wam is trying to hold 2m over my area at least during the day but having a look at the laps sswinds can't see how the swell can do anything but drop rapidly during the day?

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#246701 - 09/08/2002 11:43 Re: Forecast swell for NSW 4th/5th/6th
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
Wow! That's veeery interesting TT.

I've been too busy to follow this system since last weekend, but after a quick scan through the CIMSS and Quickscat winds, perhaps it's just a huge refraction from the current synoptic event - the wind has been roaring through the Tasman over the last few days (how big would some of the South Pacific Islands be out of this system? 12'? 15'? eek )

I know the wind direction is SW thru S, but at 50kts there's an awfully large swell generation happening and 4ft surf isn't that much to expect along the East Coast.....or is it? The buoy are reporting swell directions from the SSE...this is an interesting case example indeed.

Just a pity that I don't archive wind images from the east coast...only the western sector... frown

As for tomorrow; at this stage I'd be expecting more of the same as per today. No huge increase on today size, but no overnight drop to flatness either (how's that for fence sitting? laugh ).

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#246702 - 09/08/2002 12:35 Re: Forecast swell for NSW 4th/5th/6th
temp trace Offline
Member

Registered: 03/02/2001
Posts: 457
Loc: Newcastle, NSW
Ben just had a look at oceanweather is that 5m at 9 sec?

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#246703 - 09/08/2002 12:54 Re: Forecast swell for NSW 4th/5th/6th
thermalben Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/04/2001
Posts: 769
Loc: Tweed Coast
yep eek ... the same area (could be the same ship?) is reporting SW winds of 35kts. Pity this site doesn't always report swell size...and how much of this is groundswell or localised windswell is left for interpretation. Still, nice to have some regular verification smile

*sorry... map URL changes every hour* had to alter post...

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#246704 - 09/08/2002 13:05 Re: Forecast swell for NSW 4th/5th/6th
Alex Zadnik Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2001
Posts: 152
Loc: VIC
Hey Ben,
I think your spot on with that huge refraction call. It has suprised me a few time along the east coast that we have recieved swell from what appears to be a straight SW fetch in the southern Tasman Sea/Southern Ocean.
I don't see it sticking round for long though. If there is still swell tomorrow I'll be pretty suprised (but happy!).
Alex

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#246705 - 09/08/2002 21:54 Re: Forecast swell for NSW 4th/5th/6th
pingtang Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 18/11/2001
Posts: 5525
Loc: Nowra, NSW
I wont be suprised if theres some swell lingering around tomorrow morning.When I went past Gerringong this evening,there were some sets that were over head-high.I am expecting a decrease in size,but there should be something there.
The Illawarra coastal waters forcast,is suggesting a 2-2.5 metre swell,decreasing to 1.5-2metres in the morning.The Sydney forcast mentions no decrease.With W-NW winds predicted,there should be some nice waves.It should be small though-say 1 metre or less.
_________________________
RAIN YTD-
34mms

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#246706 - 10/08/2002 13:40 Re: Forecast swell for NSW 4th/5th/6th
pingtang Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 18/11/2001
Posts: 5525
Loc: Nowra, NSW
Morning report-

Swell is still lingering around,but it has dropped substantially overnight.Its about 1metre on the sets,and its dropping off pretty quickly.There was a light northerly down here,early in the morning,so open beaches were side-shore.So OK waves,were in the protected northern corners.

I had an alright surf earlier today,but it was small.Tomorrow should be about 1FT on open beaches.
_________________________
RAIN YTD-
34mms

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